Analysis 2021 draft thread

[Johnny Bananas]

What would we want from a trade though?Multiple second round picks aren't of value to us with list space issues. Maybe more future selections to help with points - that would be pretty boring!

A trade up from 14 to go along with a downgrade from 18 would be good. It's unfortunate that St Kilda don't have a selection in the second round. West Coast have two though, so maybe with them.

 

[jjami15]

Some talk that Williams won't make it at AFL level due to his work ethic. At 41 I wouldn't mind taking a chance on this fellow instead:

Boulevard of AFL dreams: Charlie Dean wins Fothergill-Round-Mitchell Medal

Williamstown's Charlie Dean named VFL's best young player of 2021

www.afl.com.au

From the minor viewing Williams just doesn’t look like he has the athletic profile either. It was interesting to hear Conole (I believe) say HBF and wing at our first picks. Earlier this year he said we also needed KPP so a player like Dean or Aleer might be one we take late.

In regards to Sinn I would be quite surprised if he was still there at 16. He had a horrible year injury wise and if he didn’t would have been right up there. He was runner-up b+f for u/16 vic metro and that wouldn’t have been forgotten. I reckon anyone from Sinn, Chesser or Brown at 16 with Owens at our first. That could all change depending on wether a highly rated player slides and then maybe one of those three at 20.

 

[M Malice]

Here’s a phantom draft from eDPS of AFL Draft Central after today’s trade period.View attachment 1259946View attachment 1259950

Can't see us taking 4 in the draft, substitute Ned Long with Sam Banks and I like it. Pick 6 looks pretty high for Josh Goater, hopefully eDPS is way off on that one. Mitch Knevitt seems to be gathering some hype, do you like him as a possible for us? Also any idea why Sam Banks is falling like a stone in a lot of peoples eyes?

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Also any idea why Sam Banks is falling like a stone in a lot of peoples eyes?

He's been injured most of the year. People have forgotten what he can do.

 

[royboys4eva]

I'm no draft expert but I really liked what I saw of Darcy Willmot and he plays half back which is a position we need to strengthen going forward with Richy not getting any younger. Whats more Willmot is touted as a top 20 player and basically has an extra 6-9 months development on most kids in the draft with his birthday being Dec31. I think we should be looking at him very closely. That mock draft that was posted had him going at 24 I would be stunned if he went that late.

I will be very interested to see what happens with Leek Alleer. Feels like he will take few years more to develop but he cold be a real steal late in the draft. The boy has huge upside.

 

[dlanod]

Here’s a phantom draft from eDPS of AFL Draft Central after today’s trade period.View attachment 1259946View attachment 1259950

Weird that they don't have Fahey tagged as a GWS academy member. Wonder if that means they missed any others.

 

[JasRulz63]

That feels like the next evolution. If the first pick in the second round becomes so desirable that it is overvalued, then the last pick in the first round might be a better target for teams trying to trade up.

What would we want from a trade though?Multiple second round picks aren't of value to us with list space issues. Maybe more future selections to help with points - that would be pretty boring!

It also has the added advantage of being a first round pick, which helps with the minimum first round picks taken rule.

Yeah, I think it'd end up being for future picks, hopefully just to slide down a few spots in the order. Not particularly exciting as you mentioned!

EDIT:
Interestingly in 2019, GC moved up from pick 27 to 23 (which ended up being the last pick of day 1), and gave up pick 32 in the process.

 

[JasRulz63]

We're the only team in 3 years that has traded for that pick so I'm not sure it's that valuable

The two day draft started in 2018. Since then:

2018 - GWS trade pick 28 and a future second to Adelaide for pick 24 (first pick on day 2) and a future fifth

2019 - Brisbane trade pick 23 and a future second to Port for pick 22 (first pick of day 2) and a future fourth

2020 - reverted back to a single day draft due to COVID.

So it's happened two out of the possible two years so far, and both times it was a small move up the second round for a future second round pick.

 

[mattsmob]

The two day draft started in 2018. Since then:

2018 - GWS trade pick 28 and a future second to Adelaide for pick 24 (first pick on day 2) and a future fifth

2019 - Brisbane trade pick 23 and a future second to Port for pick 22 (first pick of day 2) and a future fourth

2020 - reverted back to a single day draft due to COVID.

So it's happened two out of the possible two years so far, and both times it was a small move up the second round for a future second round pick.

I think the main benefit of having the first pick of round 2 is that you have the best part of 16 hours to figure out what to do with it whereas the last pick of the first round you've still only got the 5 minute countdown, I can't see it becoming anymore valuable than what it already is. This year is interesting though having the last pick of being able to take NGA kids without bidding, Mitch Owens is the only one I could see someone trading up for but it's something to keep an eye one.

 

[briztoon]

We're the only team in 3 years that has traded for that pick so I'm not sure it's that valuable

GC traded for it in 2018, then GWS traded for the pick straight after it.

2020 was a one night draft, so teams didn’t have 18 hours to arrange a trade for it.

 

[jackess]

I wonder what pick swaps we might be keen on

eg. 18 and 41 to Richmond for 26 and 28

14 and 18 to West Coast for 10 and 29

14 and 41 to Hawthorn for 21 and 24

 

[mattsmob]

I wonder what pick swaps we might be keen on

eg. 18 and 41 to Richmond for 26 and 28

14 and 18 to West Coast for 10 and 29

14 and 41 to Hawthorn for 21 and 24

Of those I'd probably one take the Richmond deal, potentially the West Coast depending on who's available. I think we're genuinely pretty comfortable with where our two first rounders sit.

 

[jackess]

Of those I'd probably one take the Richmond deal, potentially the West Coast depending on who's available. I think we're genuinely pretty comfortable with where our two first rounders sit.

Yeah the Richmond deal would probably suit us. Allow us to take the best mid/outside runner at 14, best KPP at 26 and best remaining mid/outside runner at 28 where leaving our last pick at 41 might not leave any preferred options left

 

[Dalions]

I wonder what pick swaps we might be keen on

eg. 18 and 41 to Richmond for 26 and 28

14 and 18 to West Coast for 10 and 29

14 and 41 to Hawthorn for 21 and 24

Suoer exciting but.
54, 60 and 76 for a couple of 3rd rounders next year.
Or a 3rd and a 4th

 

[jackess]

Suoer exciting but.
54, 60 and 76 for a couple of 3rd rounders next year.
Or a 3rd and a 4th

54 and 60 would give St K an extra couple of hundred points for bidding than their current late picks.

 

[Dalions]

54 and 60 would give St K an extra couple of hundred points for bidding than their current late picks.

Who are they matching a bid for?
And where are they projected to go?

 

[Nunez]

I still think we see next year's first move into this year's draft.

 

[mattsmob]

I still think we see next year's first move into this year's draft.

That's probably my hope, we have a chance to really capitalise with a strong draft hand this year knowing we've got next year pretty well wrapped up.

 

[Dalions]

I still think we see next year's first move into this year's draft.

Only hope I see with that is - next years first and 41 for Freo’s 19.

 

[JasRulz63]

I think the main benefit of having the first pick of round 2 is that you have the best part of 16 hours to figure out what to do with it whereas the last pick of the first round you've still only got the 5 minute countdown, I can't see it becoming anymore valuable than what it already is. This year is interesting though having the last pick of being able to take NGA kids without bidding, Mitch Owens is the only one I could see someone trading up for but it's something to keep an eye one.

While I agree regarding time, given that the cost of moving up to that pick has been "set/suggested" at a future second round pick, it allows for a relatively more straightforward negotiation which wouldn't take as much time as if you were starting from scratch.

In our case with Deven, it seems like a few teams were interested in moving up for him, so I wonder if there's value in having the pick(s) teams can use to trump the flourish that may come for that first pick on day 2.

 

[blueiris]

I can see keeping next year first and trading it into a first round pick in 23

 

[jjami15]

I hope we sit on our two first picks. Don't try to be clever with them and target likely players and nail those picks.

 

[Nunez]

I can see keeping next year first and trading it into a first round pick in 23

Just comes down to where we rate the talent more than anything.

 

[jackess]

Just comes down to where we rate the talent more than anything.

And if we have any highly rated academy draftees that year

 

[mattsmob]

While I agree regarding time, given that the cost of moving up to that pick has been "set/suggested" at a future second round pick, it allows for a relatively more straightforward negotiation which wouldn't take as much time as if you were starting from scratch.

In our case with Deven, it seems like a few teams were interested in moving up for him, so I wonder if there's value in having the pick(s) teams can use to trump the flourish that may come for that first pick on day 2.

I can't remember where I heard it but I think teams weren't expected Dev to be at their pick in the late first round so they hadn't really set their eyes/hopes on him. After having a night to think it over they realised this kid had slipped way too far and probably should've been taken by a few teams at the end of the first night. Basically I think the extra time between picks isn't just to work out trades but also for teams to re-evaluate their draft boards to who's still available.