Analysis 2021 draft thread

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blueiris

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He mentioned in another interview that we'd be using 14 and 18 on draft night, would bundling our 41, 54 and 60 this year be worth anything to any club?

How the picks sit as of now >
View attachment 1260390
I feel the Dogs are the ones who don’t have enough points for Darcy maybe 41 54 and 60 for 23 could work not sure on lists spots though
 

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briztoon

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This was the graphic from when Freo matched the bid on Liam Henry and went into deficit.

View attachment 1260372


Looks like they slid all the way to the back of all available picks allocated (based on assuming every club fills all their available list spots and no passes). Similarly, they only move up the order once teams start passing on picks.

Interestingly Freo traded into the fifth last pick of the draft to take Frederick using their future fifth rounder.
That was the 2019 draft, before Covid. Last year there were only 59 or 60 picks because of list reductions. I expect something similar this year and next year, as long as lists aren’t extended again.
 

briztoon

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Danny Daly on The Roar Deal > We will be trying to move pick 41 up the order over the next few weeks.... I wasn't aware clubs can still trade picks up until draft night?
Usually can trade up until a week before the draft.
 

Johnny Bananas

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I wonder what pick swaps we might be keen on

eg. 18 and 41 to Richmond for 26 and 28
I feel like that will take us out of the running for all the good midfielders and speedy half-backs, and we can only draft one of those at 14. Sam Banks will still be around, but I'd rather take the chance of getting him at 41 and keep pick 18. Or grab a midfielder and a half-back in the teens and a KPD at 41.

14 and 18 to West Coast for 10 and 29
To me there's only a few players worth doing this for. Given I can't see Horne-Francis or Callaghan making it out of the top 5 under any circumstances, it comes down to Gibcus and Goater. And as much as it'd be fun having another strong intercept defender, is it our biggest need when we already have Harris? If that's not a priority, then Goater is the only one I think it's worth trading up for. Of course, the club may rate him far less high than we do on this forum.

14 and 41 to Hawthorn for 21 and 24
Doesn't fit with what Daly has been saying about drafting top 20 players again, which we haven't done in a few years.
 

BangyBangy

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I wonder if Melbourne would trade 17 for 41 & our 2022 first rounder.

They did trade back into this years first round & out of next years first though lol. But if a deal is good enough. Couldn't image they're in desperate need of a draft kid this year.

I'm guessing it would require us to trade picks out of 2023 to cover our needs next draft, unless a player leaves etc.
 

JasRulz63

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That was the 2019 draft, before Covid. Last year there were only 59 or 60 picks because of list reductions. I expect something similar this year and next year, as long as lists aren’t extended again.
2019 (65 picks) only had 6 more picks that 2020 (59 picks) interestingly. Will be interested to see what this year is like.
 

briztoon

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2019 (65 picks) only had 6 more picks that 2020 (59 picks) interestingly. Will be interested to see what this year is like.
2019 would of had more picks to start with, but teams would have passed towards the end.

Sydney almost always has a pick they pass on, and move in to the rookie draft, due to the Franklin contract, for example.
 

JasRulz63

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2019 would of had more picks to start with, but teams would have passed towards the end.

Sydney almost always has a pick they pass on, and move in to the rookie draft, due to the Franklin contract, for example.
Yeah on quick count I think there were about 8 more passes in 2019 than last year. Issue with your initial point is that those passes don't move our picks up until we get to those picks and they're passed on.
 

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briztoon

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Yeah on quick count I think there were about 8 more passes in 2019 than last year. Issue with your initial point is that those passes don't move our picks up until we get to those picks and they're passed on.
True, but as long as there are few initial picks, those recycled picks will still have some amount of points value attached to them.

And any other father son or northern academy bids and matches, between Ashcroft and Fletcher will move those picks up. Counting on one of the Davey twins at Essendon. No idea how good Boomer Harvey’s boy is.
 

blueiris

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Might be some players in the other academies as well. Would be good if GC lose their ability to prelist academy and NT kids next year.
Both Rendell and Twomey I’ve heard say this is the last of pre-listed Academy players for the Suns that said the AFL may find a way to extend that period
 

brutus76

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There'll be plenty of pick swaps:

Lions best bet IMO:
1. Swap 18 for a F2 and F3 with the Suns (seeing they have 5 millions picks next year)
2. Swap 41,54,60 to the Pies for 27 (almost 100 point upgrade for the Pies)

The Cats will want to upgrade too IMO - they'll be sniffing GWS pick 13 for 32,34,50

Tigers will be eyeing off the Suns #3 and a F3 for 7 and 15 as they want Sinn or Callaghan (i expect GWS to take Callaghan)
 

jjami15

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There'll be plenty of pick swaps:

Lions best bet IMO:
1. Swap 18 for a F2 and F3 with the Suns (seeing they have 5 millions picks next year)
2. Swap 41,54,60 to the Pies for 27 (almost 100 point upgrade for the Pies)

The Cats will want to upgrade too IMO - they'll be sniffing GWS pick 13 for 32,34,50

Tigers will be eyeing off the Suns #3 and a F3 for 7 and 15 as they want Sinn or Callaghan (i expect GWS to take Callaghan)
No to scenario 1, yes to scenario 2.
 

briztoon

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There'll be plenty of pick swaps:

Lions best bet IMO:
1. Swap 18 for a F2 and F3 with the Suns (seeing they have 5 millions picks next year)
2. Swap 41,54,60 to the Pies for 27 (almost 100 point upgrade for the Pies)

The Cats will want to upgrade too IMO - they'll be sniffing GWS pick 13 for 32,34,50

Tigers will be eyeing off the Suns #3 and a F3 for 7 and 15 as they want Sinn or Callaghan (i expect GWS to take Callaghan)
Sorry to say but none of those trades make sense for any team.

Trading 18 just for points in nexts years draft is a waste of pick.

The pies don’t need our picks. If Collingwood made that trade, they’d be losing points because they already have 3 picks in the 40’s, and would only be able to use 41, while losing 54 and 60 plus the pick they already have in the 50’s.

GWS don’t need to chase points. They need to take two picks before their academy kid is bid on, and they already have later picks to use to match a bid.

It does make sense for GWS and GC to each trade back a little in the top 10 if they don’t want the mids at the top of the draft.

GWS should be asking Richmond for picks for their 2 first round picks to move up to pick 2, but I wouldn’t do that if I were Richmond.
 

David C

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Sorry to say but none of those trades make sense for any team.

Trading 18 just for points in nexts years draft is a waste of pick.

The pies don’t need our picks. If Collingwood made that trade, they’d be losing points because they already have 3 picks in the 40’s, and would only be able to use 41, while losing 54 and 60 plus the pick they already have in the 50’s.

GWS don’t need to chase points. They need to take two picks before their academy kid is bid on, and they already have later picks to use to match a bid.

It does make sense for GWS and GC to each trade back a little in the top 10 if they don’t want the mids at the top of the draft.

GWS should be asking Richmond for picks for their 2 first round picks to move up to pick 2, but I wouldn’t do that if I were Richmond.
Not to mention GC just intentionally traded almost all their picks into futures because their list is full. They aren't going to suddenly trade back into this draft.
 

twhowler

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That’s what I had in the back of my mind, as another reason why I wouldn’t necessarily go for a KPP with our first two picks.

There’s likely to be a few available around our third pick this year. Aleer and Dean as young mature age prospects. Rentsch from GWV Rebels.
Any good mid-sized prospects, the 190-195cm sort of size?

I feel as though the very best backlines have 1-2 so-called undersized tall defenders. Players that can take a forward 200cm but are still pretty good when it hits the ground.
Lots of different heights listed but I think Lever and May are both under 195cm.
Josh Gibson was 189cm and took the talls. James Frawley also 193cm.
Dylan Grimes not massive, Vlaustin takes taller players too.

So with Harris a lock for 5 years as our really big key back (202cm), and Jack Payne a good prospect (197cm) we have 2 good tall options.
We have 2 of the sort of hybrid size in Gardiner and Adams, and while I became a big convert on Adams his body is just so brittle. So one more of them would be ideal. Lester plays the role but seems to struggle with any genuine marking target.
 

mish33

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Any good mid-sized prospects, the 190-195cm sort of size?

I feel as though the very best backlines have 1-2 so-called undersized tall defenders. Players that can take a forward 200cm but are still pretty good when it hits the ground.
Lots of different heights listed but I think Lever and May are both under 195cm.
Josh Gibson was 189cm and took the talls. James Frawley also 193cm.
Dylan Grimes not massive, Vlaustin takes taller players too.

So with Harris a lock for 5 years as our really big key back (202cm), and Jack Payne a good prospect (197cm) we have 2 good tall options.
We have 2 of the sort of hybrid size in Gardiner and Adams, and while I became a big convert on Adams his body is just so brittle. So one more of them would be ideal. Lester plays the role but seems to struggle with any genuine marking target.
I feel like Wilmot could be this player. I've only seen the brief highlights, but he seems to read the flight well and looks a strong mark in the Grimes mould while having speed and good decision making too.

I am concerned about Sinn in the backline being too much of a handball receive type. If we continue to play a forward half pressure game, we need our defenders to be able to compete one on one. Also, he looks like a cruising type runner a bit like Isaac Smith, and I worry that he won't get the space in defence to really use his speed. Will be interesting to see how he tests at the combine particularly agility.
 

briztoon

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I feel like Wilmot could be this player. I've only seen the brief highlights, but he seems to read the flight well and looks a strong mark in the Grimes mould while having speed and good decision making too.

I am concerned about Sinn in the backline being too much of a handball receive type. If we continue to play a forward half pressure game, we need our defenders to be able to compete one on one. Also, he looks like a cruising type runner a bit like Isaac Smith, and I worry that he won't get the space in defence to really use his speed. Will be interesting to see how he tests at the combine particularly agility.
Vic Metro won’t have a combine at this rate.
 

mattsmob

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I feel like Wilmot could be this player. I've only seen the brief highlights, but he seems to read the flight well and looks a strong mark in the Grimes mould while having speed and good decision making too.

I am concerned about Sinn in the backline being too much of a handball receive type. If we continue to play a forward half pressure game, we need our defenders to be able to compete one on one. Also, he looks like a cruising type runner a bit like Isaac Smith, and I worry that he won't get the space in defence to really use his speed. Will be interesting to see how he tests at the combine particularly agility.
Wilmot is a fair bit smaller than Grimes I'm pretty sure, definitely more of a half-back than the 190-195cm defenders, I believe Bazzo is the best bet as an intercept/rebounder that can defend a few different height's and players.

From what I've seen Sinn plays a bit like Rich if you substitute Rich's kicking for Sinn pace. They both go looking for the ball and get a lot of handball receives, defensively I think Sinn is up to it and he's got a bit of height on Rich, he also seems to position himself well behind the ball. My only concern with Sinn is that sometimes he can bite off a bit more than he can chew, his kicking can be a little hit and miss at times and he doesn't have the same kicking action that a Hayden Young has which gives me confidence that can pull off whatever he tries.
 

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