Analysis 2021 draft thread

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briztoon

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Wilmot is a fair bit smaller than Grimes I'm pretty sure, definitely more of a half-back than the 190-195cm defenders, I believe Bazzo is the best bet as an intercept/rebounder that can defend a few different height's and players.

From what I've seen Sinn plays a bit like Rich if you substitute Rich's kicking for Sinn pace. They both go looking for the ball and get a lot of handball receives, defensively I think Sinn is up to it and he's got a bit of height on Rich, he also seems to position himself well behind the ball. My only concern with Sinn is that sometimes he can bite off a bit more than he can chew, his kicking can be a little hit and miss at times and he doesn't have the same kicking action that a Hayden Young has which gives me confidence that can pull off whatever he tries.
You would imagine in our system that Sinn would have a good idea of what type of kicks he would and wouldn’t be allowed to go for.

I believe it’s pretty evident that all our young players, play to the coaches instructions and don’t try to much.
 

mattsmob

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You would imagine in our system that Sinn would have a good idea of what type of kicks he would and wouldn’t be allowed to go for.

I believe it’s pretty evident that all our young players, play to the coaches instructions and don’t try to much.
I agree, in the AFL full-time system he should be able to clean it up and with experience it could be a real weapon for him. The more I think about it he would contrast Rich, Coleman and Starcevich really nicely. If we draft him I think he'd be ahead of Madden, would depend on how Answerth comes back from injury and where the club see's Prior's long-term position but he could play a bit of footy for us next season.
 

Cubs2Lions

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I feel like Wilmot could be this player. I've only seen the brief highlights, but he seems to read the flight well and looks a strong mark in the Grimes mould while having speed and good decision making too.

I am concerned about Sinn in the backline being too much of a handball receive type. If we continue to play a forward half pressure game, we need our defenders to be able to compete one on one. Also, he looks like a cruising type runner a bit like Isaac Smith, and I worry that he won't get the space in defence to really use his speed. Will be interesting to see how he tests at the combine particularly agility.
I know he has already been mentioned but another player to add on those two players from above, that I hope the club would be looking at with either of our 2 1st rounders this year (if available), would be Campbell Chesser from Sandringham Dragons/Victorian Country, to help fill that future Half-Back/Wing role for us and is also a "great character and helps bring elite standards to clubs", which we have always rated those traits/attributes highly since Fages came to the club.



HEIGHT: 186cm / WEIGHT: 83kg

POSITION: Balanced Midfielder/Defender

SNAPSHOT: “A speedy and productive mover on the outside, Chesser breaks the lines from half-back or the wing but has also shown a good balance in his ball winning.”

Coming into the year widely regarded as a top 10 prospect, Campbell Chesser suffered a meniscus injury in his second NAB League outing of the season, limiting his opportunities across a highly anticipated top-age campaign. What Chesser had shown in the previous fixture and his Under 16s year, was his clean ball use and athleticism, allowing him to strive through the midfield with his classy ball movement going forward. To complement this, Chesser is a two-way runner, winning possession in the defensive 50 and moving it on well, then generally running hard to impact up the field in the same passage of play.

STRENGTHS:
+ Speed
+ Kicking
+ Class
+ Versatility
+ Outside run
+ Breaking the lines

IMPROVEMENTS:
– Contested game
– Tackling

AFL Academy member, Chesser entered the year as one of the players to watch and started his season well before being struck down by a meniscus injury. What was supposed to be a short-term injury unfortunately turned into a decent lay off, seeing Chesser return for just two games prior to the season cancellation for Victorian prospects. Despite this time off, what Chesser showed prior and in his Under 16s year will be enough to see him make it through to the next level, although slightly likely lower than was predicted.

At the next level, Chesser is going to offer classy use of the footy, particularly by foot, whether he’s playing on the wing, off half-back or through the middle. Chesser remains composed going in the thick of things, threading kicks out to teammates in space with solid placement to make them as easy to mark as possible. When given space by his opponents, Chesser will run the ball forward, eagerly taking bounces to advance as far as possible before having to kick it. Chesser maintains his composure and class by foot even at full speed, making his outside work particularly dangerous.

An impressive part of Chesser’s game is his work rate off the ball, where he’ll run both ways to be an option for teammates or provide an extra body in defence to be a dangerous player in transition. That work rate doesn’t apply just defensively, as he runs hard when his side has the ball to be a genuine option, or to get forward and sweep up spilled balls from contests. With his high level athletics background, that repeat running at speed isn’t a surprising trait and remains one of his biggest weapons.

Whilst work rate certainly isn’t an issue for Chesser, he may look to improve his tackling at the next level. He is able to keep up with opponents easily enough, but sometimes struggles to execute or keep hold when he grabs on. Another area Chesser may look to improve is his contested ball winning, especially if he looks to play more inside in future, complementing his composure under pressure and clean ball use.

DRAFT PROJECTION: 12-25

SUMMARY:
There’s no doubt that 2021 has been a frustrating year for Chesser, who could arguably have pushed for top 10 contention if not for injury and pandemic-related disruptions. With consistency hard to come by, he slid down the order a touch but remains a player with serious athletic weapons and the footballing nous to match. On top of that, the 18-year-old is a great character who presents well and brings elite standards which clubs will love. He is a first round candidate and may well be a bargain any further down the line.
 

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cotter101

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Don’t be surprised if we trade our first and cop a points loss on the net trade value due to list spots and taking points next year into consideration.
 
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briztoon

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Don’t be surprised if we trade our first and cop a points loss on the net trade value due to list spots available this year and taking points next year into consideration.
Do you mean trade 14 back, and get a future pick, but we’re potentially worse off than points wise than the value of 14?

That would be a really f**king bad trade, if that’s what you mean.
 

WhiteLionFeva

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Don’t be surprised if we trade our first and cop a points loss on the net trade value due to list spots available this year and taking points next year into consideration.
Why would we trade our first this year just because of list spots? We will have to make room to take three whether we like it or not.
 

briztoon

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I’m not against trading our first pick backwards and obtaining a very early second round pick plus a future second round pick, if Goater, Sinn and NWM are all taken before our first pick.

But I wouldn’t be trading back any further than Geelong’s pick 22.

Might even go as far as 14 and 41 for Geelong’s 22 and 30, plus a future pick.

But I’d only be doing that trade on draft night, after Goater, Sinn and NWM are off the board, and also understanding JVR will be gone before our pick 18.

Pretty sure Melbourne will draft JVR at 17 if he’s still on board.
 

pulpdriver

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I’m not against trading our first pick backwards and obtaining a very early second round pick plus a future second round pick, if Goater, Sinn and NWM are all taken before our first pick.

But I wouldn’t be trading back any further than Geelong’s pick 22.

Might even go as far as 14 and 41 for Geelong’s 22 and 30, plus a future pick.

But I’d only be doing that trade on draft night, after Goater, Sinn and NWM are off the board, and also understanding JVR will be gone before our pick 18.

Pretty sure Melbourne will draft JVR at 17 if he’s still on board.
I honestly don't like that at all and would rather keep our two first rounders.

Who do you believe Dees would take should we or another team take JVR?
 

M Malice

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Yeah unless we can move up the draft we should use 14 and 18 and think we will.
From my reading of what Danny Daly said on the roar deal that is what we will be doing, he intimated that we'd be taking our 2 first round selections to the draft and trying to move pick 41 up somehow.... of course it always comes with the caveat that it could change depending on what offers are put forward re those picks.
 

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briztoon

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I honestly don't like that at all and would rather keep our two first rounders.

Who do you believe Dees would take should we or another team take JVR?
I was only responding to cotter101 post, and throwing up a possible scenario.

I’ve come to the belief that if we don’t pick JVR with our first pick, he’s not going to be there at our second pick.
 

mattsmob

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I'm at the point where if there are any 'reaches' inside the top 10 I'd be happy to stay where we are at 14, if not and Goater is still there at 8/9/10 I'd be happy to use our future first and ideally 18 to move up to get him and points for next year. With how good next years draft is looking this early I think it would still have pretty good value if we decide to move it on this season.
I'm thinking one of St Kilda, West Coast or potentially Fremantle could be interested in a trade like this.
 

On the quiet

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Apart from GWS and their midfielders who leave for practically nothing, another cautionary tale with drafting is Callum Coleman-Jones. Richmond drafted him as the successor to Riewoldt, but now Riewoldt is still chugging along at 33 and CCJ has departed for North Melbourne. Four years of development down the drain for Richmond because CCJ got no game time behind Riewoldt and Lynch.

Joe Daniher only turns 28 the beginning of next season. While he's had a more injury-plagued career than Riewoldt, between modern sports science and the Queensland climate, you'd think he has another 5-6 seasons left in him. So I'm not sure this is the right year to be drafting a KPF. If we spend a first-round pick on Van Rooyen for example, I doubt he's going to get games ahead of Daniher, Hipwood and McStay and I'd be worried about him doing a CCJ. In defence it's the same story with Adams being 28, but even harder to crack the 22 since Payne is already waiting in the wings.

Perhaps we're better off waiting until 2023 for KPP prospects. A midfielder or wing at our first pick and Wilmot at our second would be a great draft for us and bring us closer to a premiership in the next couple of years.
You make valid points about Colman-Jones (personally I like Chol better, bit of an X factor), and Van Rooyen about potentially waiting for an opportunity with our forward line . I think we are fine for KPD and KPF. In the next couple of years we need a bit of speed for the midfield and 'two way running', so whoever we draft this year, are ready to put real pressure on for a best 22 spot come 2023, and are a regulars in 2024.
 

Nunez

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If we can add four quality mids in the next two years, we'll be set for even longer term success (success being competing in the top 8). We're in a very good position with Ashcroft next year.
 

mattsmob

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If we can add four quality mids in the next two years, we'll be set for even longer term success (success being competing in the top 8). We're in a very good position with Ashcroft next year.
Agreed which is why I don't have much of a problem taking a bit of a deficit into 2023. By that point we could have added at least 4 really good kids that can top up our talent for the next 6-8 years so taking a little hit for 1 year it not that big a deal, especially as we should be pushing top 4 finishes from now till then.
 

irel

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I'm at the point where if there are any 'reaches' inside the top 10 I'd be happy to stay where we are at 14, if not and Goater is still there at 8/9/10 I'd be happy to use our future first and ideally 18 to move up to get him and points for next year. With how good next years draft is looking this early I think it would still have pretty good value if we decide to move it on this season.
I'm thinking one of St Kilda, West Coast or potentially Fremantle could be interested in a trade like this.
If Goatee is that good that we need to spend two first round picks to draft him he should be rated at two. After all Horne Frances could not be bought with three first rounders. Beside, if he is that good why wouldn't West Coast or Saints pick him. I am fascinated that Goatee has been elevated to God like status from a highlights video package and one posters preference.
The disappointment when Goater is available at our pick and we call another name will be palpable on this board.

On F1 using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

mattsmob

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If Goatee is that good that we need to spend two first round picks to draft him he should be rated at two. After all Horne Frances could not be bought with three first rounders. Beside, if he is that good why wouldn't West Coast or Saints pick him. I am fascinated that Goatee has been elevated to God like status from a highlights video package and one posters preference.
The disappointment when Goater is available at our pick and we call another name will be palpable on this board.

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It would be pick 18 + next years first (14-18) for pick 8-10 + a future 2nd/3rd, seems about right to me.
Horne-Francis is on a completely different level to anyone else in this draft for me and should be untouchable.
Also Goater has been talked about long before his highlights package came out, briztoon for one has been very high on him all year.
West Coast could be interested in some of the WA talent available next year which looks good at this stage and might not see Goater as a need for them, also they should be trying to stockpile talent over the next couple years as they don't have many promising young players outside of their best 22. We could offer the Saints some later picks to match the NGA kids they have in this draft and by making this deal we won't take Mitch Owens before they have the chance to match.
If the club views Goater differently then everything I've said pretty much goes out the window so at the end of the day this is just what I'd do.
 

briztoon

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It would be pick 18 + next years first (14-18) for pick 8-10 + a future 2nd/3rd, seems about right to me.
Horne-Francis is on a completely different level to anyone else in this draft for me and should be untouchable.
Also Goater has been talked about long before his highlights package came out, briztoon for one has been very high on him all year.
West Coast could be interested in some of the WA talent available next year which looks good at this stage and might not see Goater as a need for them, also they should be trying to stockpile talent over the next couple years as they don't have many promising young players outside of their best 22. We could offer the Saints some later picks to match the NGA kids they have in this draft and by making this deal we won't take Mitch Owens before they have the chance to match.
If the club views Goater differently then everything I've said pretty much goes out the window so at the end of the day this is just what I'd do.
I believe I’m the “one posters preference” that irel is referring to, so mentioning me is just validates what irel posted.
 

briztoon

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If Goatee is that good that we need to spend two first round picks to draft him he should be rated at two. After all Horne Frances could not be bought with three first rounders. Beside, if he is that good why wouldn't West Coast or Saints pick him. I am fascinated that Goatee has been elevated to God like status from a highlights video package and one posters preference.
The disappointment when Goater is available at our pick and we call another name will be palpable on this board.

On F1 using BigFooty.com mobile app
Yes, I will melt and throw my virtual membership at my computer screen on draft night if we pass on Goater.
 

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