Analysis 2021 draft thread

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The thing in this sort of trade is really not how far we might slide (or in the case of the initial Dev trade - how little we moved up for what we had to give up) - that is all irrelevant to the position we actually rate the player we are bringing in.

Sliding 10 spots and still getting the same guy we would have drafted or moving up one spot at a hefty price but ensuring we get a player we rated way higher (and who we know won't be there otherwise)....so previous trades don't always really matter, it's that actual outcome that counts.
All that is valid, but there are still semi standardised costs for trading up at various spots in the draft.

Sliding back and getting the same player is more about knowing who the opposition like and likely to draft.

As I’ve mentioned before, I’d be comfortable sliding back 3 or 4 spots from 20, if we were targeting Bazzo.
 

The Brisbane Lions have advised three players they will not be offered a new AFL contract for next year.

Senior listed players Tom Joyce, Brock Smith and rookie Connor Ballenden were informed of the decision in meetings on Monday.
😔
 

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I rate Sinn the highest out of the players you mentioned, although there’s more of a chance that both Johnson and Wilmot make it, than Sinn and Knevitt.
In that case, this touches on my earlier comment about choosing speed over size. Drafting Sinn and Chesser (if available) would give us a massive increase in speed and both have at least some capacity to play inside. Maybe one of them makes it as a full-time midfielder, or maybe they both switch between HBF and midfield. Doesn't hurt that they're already teammates, and Will Ashcroft is another teammate.


The Brisbane Lions have advised three players they will not be offered a new AFL contract for next year.

Senior listed players Tom Joyce, Brock Smith and rookie Connor Ballenden were informed of the decision in meetings on Monday.
As expected. I see CEY is also being delisted and redrafted in the rookie draft.
 

The Brisbane Lions have advised three players they will not be offered a new AFL contract for next year.

Senior listed players Tom Joyce, Brock Smith and rookie Connor Ballenden were informed of the decision in meetings on Monday.
Such a necessary but sad part of the industry.
 
Much like Brock Smith didn't see any game time behind Gardiner and Lester, will Bazzo?
Bazzo is a higher rated talent than Smith was, he's also more versatile and bigger. I don't think it's too much of a stretch for him to make our team, I think he's more likely to than JVR as well.
Do you view a half-back as more of a need? I've been thinking and with Answerth, Prior, Ah Chee, Coleman, Starcevich and Madden I don't think we're too bad off for them.
 
Yes we won't have spare list spots available for more picks.

Conversely we have 3 x 2022 3rd round picks to trade with clubs that have F&S or academy players next year.

Having a few teams next year holding multiple second and third round picks will be handy to help us pick up points for Ashcroft +/- Fletcher +/- other academy players. I can see Gold Coast targeting our first next year with their three seconds and two thirds.

No point trading out our future first for points until next year though when we know what our future first is, and how many spots we can free up. We should be aiming for +500 points like the Dogs did this year with pick 17.
 
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Bazzo is a higher rated talent than Smith was, he's also more versatile and bigger. I don't think it's too much of a stretch for him to make our team, I think he's more likely to than JVR as well.
That's a fair point. I'm not against drafting Bazzo or JVR at 18 because we could use depth, more so at third tall defender since Lester is 29. I just don't see it as essential this year, and I wouldn't expect to see much of them until Lester really starts declining, unless Gardiner gets injured again. JVR probably doesn't make it to 18 though.

Do you view a half-back as more of a need? I've been thinking and with Answerth, Prior, Ah Chee, Coleman, Starcevich and Madden I don't think we're too bad off for them.
We certainly have plenty of players capable of playing there, and I'm not knocking them, it's just worth noting they all have caveats. Starcevich might be ready to play midfield where we need a point of difference, Coleman and Ah Chee may be better suited at HFF, Prior may be better suited at wing, Answerth needs to work his way back from injury and Madden might never make it at senior level. And Rich is 32. Because there are several unknowns here, maybe it's better to say that it's not not a need, because we're not set there the way we are with KPPs.

Who we pick isn't necessarily about positional need anyway. As the club brains trust have said, draft for talent, trade for need. The most talented kids available at our picks may just be HBFs, because the draft is full of talented HBFs and it's a position that isn't all that highly valued around the league. But we know the benefit of having strong ball users in defence.

Sinn was rated as a potential top 5 pick before the season got swallowed by Covid. In addition to good skills, he brings speed, something we need to improve on. I'd be happy to get him at 14. Similar with Chesser who was rated as a top 10 pick, I'd be happy to get him at 18.
 
Just noticed the Suns have pick 3 in the draft and their next selection is 97 :eek: , do they have to take 3 in the draft or have they got some sort of exemption from that requirement?
 
Just noticed the Suns have pick 3 in the draft and their next selection is 97 :eek: , do they have to take 3 in the draft or have they got some sort of exemption from that requirement?
They're able to prelist players from their academy without having to match a bid on them so I'd assume doing that counts as making a selection.
 
Having a few teams next year holding multiple second and third round picks will be handy to help us pick up points for Ashcroft +/- Fletcher +/- other academy players. I can see Gold Coast targeting our first next year with their three seconds and two thirds.

No point trading out our future first for points until next year though when we know what our future first is, and how many spots we can free up. We should be aiming for +500 points like the Dogs did this year with pick 17.
That’s the way I see it playing out with our 2022 first rounder as well. If Ashcroft continues with his development, that pick will need to generate the majority of the points required for matching. If we can generate a similar return like the Bulldogs, that coupled with our second rounder will tally atleast 2000 points.

Any notion of transferring that pick to either this draft or the 2023 draft, I just cant see happening. Given our projected finishing position over the next couple of years, would mean us trying to match using 2 late first rounders.

I’d like to see us draft another midfielder and HBF this year with our top picks. Simply shuffle the picks the following year to draft Ashcroft using 4-5 picks. Then try to move our future first back into the 2022 draft, aiming to draft a KPF. By doing this, it stop us using valuable list spots on multiple draftees at pick 60+
 

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We certainly have plenty of players capable of playing there, and I'm not knocking them, it's just worth noting they all have caveats. Starcevich might be ready to play midfield where we need a point of difference, Coleman and Ah Chee may be better suited at HFF, Prior may be better suited at wing, Answerth needs to work his way back from injury and Madden might never make it at senior level. And Rich is 32. Because there are several unknowns here, maybe it's better to say that it's not not a need, because we're not set there the way we are with KPPs.

Who we pick isn't necessarily about positional need anyway. As the club brains trust have said, draft for talent, trade for need. The most talented kids available at our picks may just be HBFs, because the draft is full of talented HBFs and it's a position that isn't all that highly valued around the league. But we know the benefit of having strong ball users in defence.

Sinn was rated as a potential top 5 pick before the season got swallowed by Covid. In addition to good skills, he brings speed, something we need to improve on. I'd be happy to get him at 14. Similar with Chesser who was rated as a top 10 pick, I'd be happy to get him at 18.
Honestly I agree with a lot of that and if we were to get a Goater/Sinn/NWM/Johnson with our first pick they should be able to help with our half-back stocks as well as our future midfield. I do think we were pretty shallow in our key back stocks last season with either B. Smith having to play above his size (which hurt him in the end I believe) or young Arnold had to take a key forward. In a perfect world Bazzo could be our Ridley/Sicily which is probably the one thing we don't have in our backline. Either way can't wait for the draft just to see what actually happens.
 
In a few years, Daniher and McStay will still be going. Do you think JVR is going to overtake one or both of them by the age of 22?

Probably not, but we do have one of the strongest forward lines in the league now but I can see him getting a few senior games and being ready to feature as a regular in the 22 once one of those guys is ready to retire I think he'll be a good partner for Hipwood during his prime. Although if we draft him I guess we might even do so with him intending to be a defender. We do need KP depth and we'll need a replacement for at least one of our key forwards by the time JVR would be entering his prime age and it might be a while before we get another chance to draft a decent KP prospect and pump development into them.

Can easily argue that it's not essential just yet though as we certainly have more immediate needs though the cupboard is starting to look very bare outside our best 22 keys.
 
I’d like to see us draft another midfielder and HBF this year with our top picks.

I feel like some of the mid options would suit us at half back in the short term anyway. Lets not forget Rich was a mid. I could see Johnson playing half back really well. NWM too. Sonsie even.

The danger of picking an u18 hbfer is the fail rate is pretty high by position isn't it? It's probably confirmation bias, but I can think of Ling, Scrimshaw, Richards, Clark as recent first rounders who have barely played let alone shown much.
Meanwhile, Rich was a mid, Short was a half-forward, Salem was a mid, Bailey Dale was a half-forward - all have found a home in defence.
I think the most incommon qualities those players have are disposal and decision making. I'd be trying to find those players ahead of speed outright. I'm seeing a bit of Ling in Sinn. The injuries aren't helping either!
 
Thoughts on taking just 2 in the draft, 14 n 18, and somehow getting Jarrod Brander, delisted from the Eagles. Surely we could manipulate the list/rookie list some way or another to do it. Brander can play fwd or back, only 22yrs old, was a first round draft pick. Adds some ready made depth to our tall stocks, said he's willing to go anywhere to continue his career.
 
I feel like some of the mid options would suit us at half back in the short term anyway. Lets not forget Rich was a mid. I could see Johnson playing half back really well. NWM too. Sonsie even.

The danger of picking an u18 hbfer is the fail rate is pretty high by position isn't it? It's probably confirmation bias, but I can think of Ling, Scrimshaw, Richards, Clark as recent first rounders who have barely played let alone shown much.
Meanwhile, Rich was a mid, Short was a half-forward, Salem was a mid, Bailey Dale was a half-forward - all have found a home in defence.
I think the most incommon qualities those players have are disposal and decision making. I'd be trying to find those players ahead of speed outright. I'm seeing a bit of Ling in Sinn. The injuries aren't helping either!
Scrimshaw had a pretty good year at Hawthorn this year. He’s received a lot of plaudits from various podcasts for his year.

Richards broke his leg I believe, otherwise has played every game when healthy, and Clark just keeps coping injury after injury from what I gather.

I don’t believe the fail rate is any higher than any other position.
 
Thoughts on taking just 2 in the draft, 14 n 18, and somehow getting Jarrod Brander, delisted from the Eagles. Surely we could manipulate the list/rookie list some way or another to do it. Brander can play fwd or back, only 22yrs old, was a first round draft pick. Adds some ready made depth to our tall stocks, said he's willing to go anywhere to continue his career.
He’s looking for a club where he gets a shot as a best 22 KPF. Probably somewhere like North or Collingwood, where he’ll sign on after the draft.
 
He’s looking for a club where he gets a shot as a best 22 KPF. Probably somewhere like North or Collingwood, where he’ll sign on after the draft.

But for arguments sake, if you could somehow get it done, surely we’d have to consider it.
 
But for arguments sake, if you could somehow get it done, surely we’d have to consider it.
I haven’t seen him play as a KPP recently to have an opinion as to his development.

Sort of a cautionary tale of what might happen if drafting a KPP who is starved of senior opportunities.
 
Probably not, but we do have one of the strongest forward lines in the league now but I can see him getting a few senior games and being ready to feature as a regular in the 22 once one of those guys is ready to retire I think he'll be a good partner for Hipwood during his prime. Although if we draft him I guess we might even do so with him intending to be a defender. We do need KP depth and we'll need a replacement for at least one of our key forwards by the time JVR would be entering his prime age and it might be a while before we get another chance to draft a decent KP prospect and pump development into them.

Can easily argue that it's not essential just yet though as we certainly have more immediate needs though the cupboard is starting to look very bare outside our best 22 keys.
I can see the value of adding a KPP for depth, certainly. But after seeing what happened with Richmond and CCJ, I'm also skittish about spending a high pick on a player who probably doesn't have a path to the best 22 in the next 4 years, save for an injury crisis. They could walk out due to a lack of opportunity right before they start being useful.

It could indeed be a while before we can draft a decent KPP prospect, but remember that every draft has them. We could draft one with our 2023 first, either in the 2023 draft or by trading it into the 2022 draft after a bid has been matched on Ashcroft. 2022 is supposed to have plenty of good KPPs. That gives them 2-3 years of development before being thrown into the fire, instead of 4.
 
G'day Lions fans,

Just wondering whether you think the club might look at trading up in the first round or if you think they'd just prefer to stay where they are?
Only if they're in love with one particular prospect who won't make it to 14 (16 after bids). And there's no way of knowing that before it happens. As you'd expect, the club rarely tip their hand on who they're interested in.
 

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