Analysis 2021 draft thread

[briztoon]

We would the other 2 I am sure but would we pick Mac Andrew if he was still there????

I’m not the club so I don’t know.

I can certainly make the argument for and against.

I would hope GWS would pick him up the pick before ours, or Richmond offer us a deal to move up for him.

 

[jackess]

Chesser not bad but I would’ve taken any of the top 15 before Wilmot

Would’ve taken JvR at 16 and Wilmot or Chesser at 21

 

[Dalions]

Chesser not bad but I would’ve taken any of the top 15 before Wilmot

Would’ve taken JvR at 16 and Wilmot or Chesser at 21

I could definitely see us taking Wilmot at 20 not sure I’d take him at 16 though.
I am really hoping Johnson or Sinn fall to us personally.
Wonder if Amiss might fall through the cracks?

 

[bungalow_bill]

Will be nice if Levi is another top five prospect in 2024

 

[briztoon]

Will be nice if Levi is another top five prospect in 2024

Depends if he picks golf over footy.

 

[Dalions]

Depends if he picks golf over footy.

He can have golf and footy at the Lions.

 

[irel]

Not getting in to the whole pick swap discussion, but I agree with mattsmob about the talent drop off, especially between 13 and 18.

To puts some potential names to the picks, it’s the difference between getting Johnson and Sinn (@Quigley’s preferred players at our first pick), or getting Sinn and Knevitt.

A lot really depends on what the club hopes to do with our future first round pick. If we’re only planning on trading it for more points, then potentially upgrading our pick 18 should definitely be an option.

As an example, look what the Bulldogs have traded their pick 17 for. Is it any better than upgrading a first round pick 5 spots plus points for matching a father son bid.

The top 3 are pretty much set in stone. I'm interested who the other 10 definitive draftees are that separate themselves from the pack? According to whom?

 

[briztoon]

The top 3 are pretty much set in stone. I'm interested who the other 10 definitive draftees are that separate themselves from the pack? According to whom?

Pretty easy to work out if you read the last two pages of discussion and look at Shifter and Twomey’s first 15 picks.

I’ve been pretty clear it’s my opinion, on who I believe the top 15 players are (or more accurately, who are the likely top 15
draftees).

No one is saying definitive anything. Just how they see the draft potentially panning out, and having a discussion.

Twomey has also said he has tiers, with the top two tiers containing 13 players.

Similarly a few of the Rookie Me Central writers who post here have similar tiers, varying between 13 and 15 players. Not all the same players in their first two tiers though.

 

[irel]

Pretty easy to work out if you read the last two pages of discussion and look at Shifter and Twomey’s first 15 picks.

I’ve been pretty clear it’s my opinion, on who I believe the top 15 players are (or more accurately, who are the likely top 15
draftees).

No one is saying definitive anything. Just how they see the draft potentially panning out, and having a discussion.

Twomey has also said he has tiers, with the top two tiers containing 13 players.

Similarly a few of the Rookie Me Central writers who post here have similar tiers, varying between 13 and 15 players. Not all the same players in their first two tiers though.

Well it's not easy to work out because it is all subjective. There are many different opinions as to the top 13.

To puts some potential names to the picks, it’s the difference between getting Johnson and Sinn (@Quigley’s preferred players at our first pick), or getting Sinn and Knevitt.

Is the above not definitive enough?

Looking at Shifter and Twomey's draft order.

1. North - Jason Horn-Francis
2. Pies- Josh Daicos (Bid by GWS, matched)
3. WB - Sam Darcy (Bid by GWS, matched)
4. GWS- Josh Gibcus
5. Suns - Finn Callaghan
6. ADE- Josh Rachelle
7. Hawks - Josh Ward
8. Freo - Ben Hobbs
9. Rich - Neil Erasmus
10. Freo - Jye Amiss
11. STK - Mac Andrew
12. WCE - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
13. ESS - Matt Johnson

There are names missing from the so called top 13 that I would happily draft without having to trade up.
In fact through my very little research and limited viewing I have at least seven draftees not listed I would happily draft without moving our current draft picks. At least four not listed above I would have in my personal top 10.
But I would rather support this view: “I’m expecting this draft to be one of those ones where down the track we look back on and think, ‘Jesus, how the hell did that happen?’,” Sydney Swans list manager Kinnear Beatson told foxfooty.com.au.

 

[briztoon]

Is the above not definitive enough?

I’ve no idea what you’re on about, taking a hypothetical discussion out context and trying to say it’s definitive something or other.

Happy to talk draft prospects or lists. Throw your list or names up there.

It’s easy to poke others, without ever putting yourself out there.

 

[briztoon]

Interesting listening to Dom Fay talk about his preferred draft choices and our list needs.

In regards to list needs, he mentioned two half backs, or a half back and an outside mid/wing. And a potential Zorko replacement, a mid forward. He did say he doesn’t see KPP’s or mids as a list need yet.

As for his preferred draftees.

Josh Sinn at 14, and he mentioned that he’d consider packaging up picks to secure Sinn, as a potential long term Rich replacement.

At 18, he would prefer Zac Taylor as a Zorko replacement.

And at 41, he likes Ronald Fejo jr. as a creative, X factor excitement player off half back.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Again just my opinion, the best players left on board at our first pick were Sonsie, Chesser and Wilmot.

With our top three father son/academy kids for next year being mids or mid forwards, Chesser and Wilmot would be two kids I’d be happy with.

That's fair enough, although I reckon you can't have too many good midfield/forward types. Sonsie could legitimately be the next Jason Akermanis if he puts it all together and develops some consistency, because his agility and forward craft are that good. He may have had some less than sterling games this year, but there's a reason he was being discussed as a top 3 pick at the start of the season. I'd be fully on board with the club calling out his name at either pick.

Is Arlo Draper in the discussion for being best available in your eyes at those picks?

 

[briztoon]

1. That's fair enough, although I reckon you can't have too many good midfield/forward types. Sonsie could legitimately be the next Jason Akermanis if he puts it all together and develops some consistency, because his agility and forward craft are that good. He may have had some less than sterling games this year, but there's a reason he was being discussed as a top 3 pick at the start of the season. I'd be fully on board with the club calling out his name at either pick.
   
   Is Arlo Draper in the discussion for being best available in your eyes at those picks?

   Not really. But I’m not a fan of Draper. I mentioned last night that I had come around to Zac Taylor as a potential selection at our second pick.

 

[mattsmob]

1. 
   Not really. But I’m not a fan of Draper. I mentioned last night that I had come around to Zac Taylor as a potential selection at our second pick.

Do you think Draper has any potential off halfback?
Personally if Draper was there at our second pick he'd be pretty high on my list but I believe he can play midfield in the future while also being effective off either flank.

 

[mattsmob]

Do you think Draper has any potential off halfback?
Personally if Draper was there at our second pick he'd be pretty high on my list but I believe he can play midfield in the future while also being effective off either flank.

Might add to this that Draper is one I could see going a bit earlier leaving a Sinn/Goater type to fall to us at 14.

 

[PattyKwasagun]

Might add to this that Draper is one I could see going a bit earlier leaving a Sinn/Goater type to fall to us at 14.

I know this doesn't seem to be a common link yet, but surely Port look closely at Draper at their pick (assuming NWM is gone). They haven't had the retention problems of the Crows, but would have thought their philosophy would still generally be that if a local kid is around the mark and fills a list need, it would be hard to say no.

The good news if we're after a running half-back is that the clubs with picks before us don't really need that. Port and GWS both have an abundance of that type of player, and the Giants have Fahey coming in this year too. Essendon are relatively well stocked in that area too. West Coast could use some additional help there, but it's not their most glaring list need by any stretch, and I feel like half of St Kilda's team are running half-backs.

I know a few of the mooted half-back options (such as Sinn) project as potential midfielders too which perhaps complicates things, but I think it could see a player like him slide to us. Despite his talent, he doesn't seem to be the type of player any of those sides most glaringly need. Perhaps wishful thinking though.

 

[dlanod]

There's always a curve ball selection or two in the first 15 picks each year, so I would highly doubt it goes as they have selected. For starters, I don't see St Kilda selecting Mac Andrew.

Two weeks out, this is really just opinion and rumours.

It's only the day or two before the draft that you can start to add any kind of certainty to the industry phantom drafts and even then it's probably about 75% correct at most.

 

[POBT]

Two weeks out, this is really just opinion and rumours.

It's only the day or two before the draft that you can start to add any kind of certainty to the industry phantom drafts and even then it's probably about 75% correct at most.

Yeah, I alluded to this yesterday but I think there's a need to build uncertainty into people's predictions.

It may well be true that there is a clear top 13 or 14 but the chances that the 18 clubs have the same top group in the same order is remote, and particularly this year with imperfect information due to junior footy and VFL cancellations.

 

[POBT]

Might add to this that Draper is one I could see going a bit earlier leaving a Sinn/Goater type to fall to us at 14.

The decline of Draper down the list has been interesting to watch and I'm not 100% sure why. It seemed like he was being talked about as a 10-15 pick during the year and is now outside the top 20 on a lot of lists. What I've seen of his form looked good and, while he missed footy, this is a year where that shouldn't matter too much given half the draftees will have missed games due to lockdowns.

If Draper is there at pick 20, I'm taking him. Looks a talent to me.

 

[jackess]

Interesting listening to Dom Fay talk about his preferred draft choices and our list needs.

In regards to list needs, he mentioned two half backs, or a half back and an outside mid/wing. And a potential Zorko replacement, a mid forward. He did say he doesn’t see KPP’s or mids as a list need yet.

As for his preferred draftees.

Josh Sinn at 14, and he mentioned that he’d consider packaging up picks to secure Sinn, as a potential long term Rich replacement.

At 18, he would prefer Zac Taylor as a Zorko replacement.

And at 41, he likes Ronald Fejo jr. as a creative, X factor excitement player off half back.

But I thought we didn’t draft for needs……..

Not sure we have to replace Zorko when we have Bailey

 

[irel]

I’ve no idea what you’re on about, taking a hypothetical discussion out context and trying to say it’s definitive something or other.

Happy to talk draft prospects or lists. Throw your list or names up there.

It’s easy to poke others, without ever putting yourself out there.

Lists are arbitrary. You argue there is a group of 13 that we must trade up in order to "not miss out on getting those players." You reference Twomey's 13 is a guide. Well, Twomey's 13 do not include my preferred players, or I can guarantee you our club's or any of the other club's top 13.

You ask for names I would be happy with any of the following with our picks and still argue we did well at our picks. Sonsie, Draper, Owens, Fahey, Sinnn, Butler, Warner in that group of players (not in that order) Few others if I put my mind to it.

If history tells us anything our team that would be charged with the responsibility of selecting on the night would have done their job and selected or traded on the night having done so to benefit the club, not because of getting in some arbitrary sexxxy list number.

It is easy to fall in love with viewing a 2 minute highlights package and be disappointed and have a melt. Who is to say that a combination of Sinn and Knevitt is not the preferred option of our club, and the best option. In fact that may very well be the preferred scenario.

 

[irel]

The decline of Draper down the list has been interesting to watch and I'm not 100% sure why. It seemed like he was being talked about as a 10-15 pick during the year and is now outside the top 20 on a lot of lists. What I've seen of his form looked good and, while he missed footy, this is a year where that shouldn't matter too much given half the draftees will have missed games due to lockdowns.

If Draper is there at pick 20, I'm taking him. Looks a talent to me.

I agree. I think our draft position is ideal and I believe we will have a difficult choice to make. Draper, Sonsie have been the sliders, Owens Warner, Taylor the raisers. There will be plenty to chose from.

 

[PattyKwasagun]

It is interesting to think that we could potentially get Sonsie and Draper at our picks if we wanted them both, which at certain stages of the build up would have seemed near on impossible.

 

[briztoon]

Yeah, I alluded to this yesterday but I think there's a need to build uncertainty into people's predictions.

It may well be true that there is a clear top 13 or 14 but the chances that the 18 clubs have the same top group in the same order is remote, and particularly this year with imperfect information due to junior footy and VFL cancellations.

I wouldn’t expect clubs to have them in the same order, even if they all had the same group of kids.

I don’t even expect clubs to have the same group of kids in their top 10. Probably not even the same top 5.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

The decline of Draper down the list has been interesting to watch and I'm not 100% sure why. It seemed like he was being talked about as a 10-15 pick during the year and is now outside the top 20 on a lot of lists. What I've seen of his form looked good and, while he missed footy, this is a year where that shouldn't matter too much given half the draftees will have missed games due to lockdowns.

If Draper is there at pick 20, I'm taking him. Looks a talent to me.

Haven't really studied the draftees as much this year, but he may be one of the few draftees of recent times to have a Steiner education for a decent part of their education. Seems like the kind of guy who would fit well into our team