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Analysis 2021 draft thread

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Knightmare does like to be different with his ratings and favours the reaching high potential picks; remember Waylen Manson? He was due to be the best thing since toasting sliced bread and was the next Buddy.
Looking at that list Alleer listed at 9 gives off those sort of vibes. Sheldrick another one that stands out as strange being that high. Projects to be a very good player imo but no way I'd pick hm over Sinn, Chesser, Sonsie or Goater for long term gain.
Yeah the Sheldrick one is the biggest surprise for me, goes against the high potential pick as well. Honestly even if he hits his ceiling I'm not convinced I'm taking him first round.
 
Wouldn’t mind if Amiss slipped through to us though.
Him and Chesser or Wilmot would be a pretty good draft haul I reckon.
I still worry about what his path to best 22 would be, as I do with all talls this year, but at least with Amiss he offers us something different to what we have right now. He seems more like a Jack Gunston than a Joe Daniher.
 
Okay, so after much consideration and research in the past couple of weeks, I have decided to have a informative guess for my own phantom draft on how the first round selections will occur next week for everyone and how it might impact us, in terms of selecting the best available talent for us in the first round:

2021 AFL First Round Selections
Pick 1 - Jason Horne-Francis
(North Melbourne)
Pick 2 - Nick Daicos (Collingwood)*
Pick 3 - Sam Darcy (Western Bulldogs)*
Pick 4 - Finn Callaghan (Greater Western Sydney)
Pick 5 - Mac Andrew (Gold Coast)
Pick 6 - Josh Rachele (Adelaide)
Pick 7 - Josh Ward (Hawthorn)
Pick 8 - Neil Erasmus (Fremantle)
Pick 9 - Ben Hobbs (Richmond)
Pick 10 - Jye Amiss (Fremantle)
Pick 11 - Josh Gibcus (St. Kilda)
Pick 12 - Josh Goater (West Coast)
Pick 13 - Josh Sinn (Essendon)
Pick 14 - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (Port Adelaide)
Pick 15 - Blake Howes (Greater Western Sydney)
Pick 16 - Campbell Chesser (Brisbane)
Pick 17 - Jacob Van Rooyen (Richmond)
Pick 18 - Josh Fahey (GreaterWestern Sydney)^
Pick 19 - Rhett Bazzo (Sydney)
Pick 20 - Tyler Sonsie (Melbourne)
Pick 21 - Jesse Motlop (Brisbane)

*- Father/Son Selections (GWS bids on Daicos & Darcy)
^- Academy Selections (Sydney bid on Fahey)

Notable players missing out on the first round include: Zac Taylor, Sam Butler, Mitch Knevitt, Darcy Wilmot, Matthew Johnson, Matthew Roberts, Connor MacDonald, Toby Conway, Tom Brown, Judson Clarke, Charlie Dean, Leek Alleer, Jack Willaims, Marcus Windhager (St. Kilda Academy), Mitchito Owens (St. Kilda Academy).




With our first pick in the draft next week, Campbell Chesser (186cm/83kg) seems to me like the most realistic option we will select (if available) given the fact that are looking for a quality rebounding defender with excellent kicking & speed levels. Even though Sinn would be the perfect player for us to select with our pick 14 (16), he is most likely going to be selected by teams who have selections from Pick 6 to Pick 14 IMO. Chesser was an All-Australian defender at U16 level for Victoria Metro in 2019 but can also spend decent minutes on the wing & midfield with his speed/kicking. He also has an high level athletics background in short-distance events (opposite to Sharp's athletic background), known as a great character on-field/off-field who thrives leadership and responsibility and also plays for Sandringham Dragons (Will Ashcroft's underage team) meaning there would have been some connection before between those two so the move up the QLD isn't as daunting.




With our second pick next week, unless there is someone that really has dropped to our Pick 18 (20-21), I wouldn't be fazed if the club decided to select a bolter in this situation and select someone with long-term potential for us. Even though Wilmot is still on this board at our second pick, I don't personally think the club will want to select another HBF given the amount of depth we currently have in that position right now (Ah Chee, Bailey (if needed), K.Coleman, Madden, Michael, Prior, Starcevich, etc). One area of the field that we did struggle with in our VFL team though, was our Forward 50 department. Now even though we have been blessed that players like McCarthy, Cameron, K.Coleman, & Zorko have had played full seasons for the past 2-3 years, if a couple of those went down to long-term injuries (god forbid) in the future and players like Rayner & Bailey stay in the midfield, it wouldn't be the worst of options for us to gamble on selecting a long-term potential small forward, who can play minutes in the small midfield for us as well.

With that criteria, Jesse Motlop (176cm/74kg) seems to be the player I would fancy the most out of the small-forward department at that pick. Motlop is a quality small forward who is part of the NGA at Fremantle (they don't get 100% rights to him till Pick 40) and is the son of former North Melbourne & Port Adelaide player, Daniel Motlop. He has played for South Fremantle in the first grade/reserves at WAFL level, this year, averaged around 1-2 goals a game for them while also spending some minutes in the midfield as well with his speed & acceleration and IMO has the scope & long-term potential to be a long-term replacement for Charlie Cameron (if he moves for $$$ or when he retires). Motlop also has massive potential & ambitions in the film/podcast industry (already having a podcast) and I can see someone like Robinson and Cameron, who has similar interests in Film, Gaming & Podcasting, taking him under their wing at the club to support him.
 
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Okay, so after much consideration and research in the past couple of weeks, I have decided to have a informative guess for my own phantom draft on how the first round selections will occur next week for everyone and how it might impact us, in terms of selecting the best available talent for us in the first round:

2021 AFL First Round Selections
Pick 1 - Jason Horne-Francis
(North Melbourne)
Pick 2 - Nick Daicos (Collingwood)*
Pick 3 - Sam Darcy (Western Bulldogs)*
Pick 4 - Finn Callaghan (Greater Western Sydney)
Pick 5 - Mac Andrew (Gold Coast)
Pick 6 - Josh Rachele (Adelaide)
Pick 7 - Josh Ward (Hawthorn)
Pick 8 - Neil Erasmus (Fremantle)
Pick 9 - Ben Hobbs (Richmond)
Pick 10 - Jye Amiss (Fremantle)
Pick 11 - Josh Gibcus (St. Kilda)
Pick 12 - Josh Goater (West Coast)
Pick 13 - Josh Sinn (Essendon)
Pick 14 - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (Port Adelaide)
Pick 15 - Blake Howes (Greater Western Sydney)
Pick 16 - Campbell Chesser (Brisbane)
Pick 17 - Jacob Van Rooyen (Richmond)
Pick 18 - Josh Fahey (GreaterWestern Sydney)^
Pick 19 - Rhett Bazzo (Sydney)
Pick 20 - Tyler Sonsie (Melbourne)
Pick 21 - Jesse Motlop (Brisbane)

*- Father/Son Selections (GWS bids on Daicos & Darcy)
^- Academy Selections (Sydney bid on Fahey)

Notable players missing out on the first round include: Zac Taylor, Sam Butler, Mitch Knevitt, Darcy Wilmot, Matthew Johnson, Matthew Roberts, Connor MacDonald, Toby Conway, Tom Brown, Judson Clarke, Charlie Dean, Leek Alleer, Jack Willaims, Marcus Windhager (St. Kilda Academy), Mitchito Owens (St. Kilda Academy).




With our first pick in the draft next week, Campbell Chesser (186cm/83kg) seems to me like the most realistic option we will select (if available) given the fact that are looking for a quality rebounding defender with excellent kicking & speed levels. Even though Sinn would be the perfect player for us to select with our pick 14 (16), he is most likely going to be selected by teams who have selections from Pick 6 to Pick 14 IMO. Chesser was an All-Australian defender at U16 level for Victoria Metro in 2019 but can also spend decent minutes on the wing & midfield with his speed/kicking. He also has an high level athletics background in short-distance events (opposite to Sharp's athletic background), known as a great character on-field/off-field who thrives leadership and responsibility and also plays for Sandringham Dragons (Will Ashcroft's underage team) meaning there would have been some connection before between those two so the move up the QLD isn't as daunting.




With our second pick next week, unless there is someone that really has dropped to our Pick 18 (20-21), I wouldn't be fazed if the club decided to select a bolter in this situation and select someone with long-term potential for us. Even though Wilmot is still on this board at our second pick, I don't personally think the club will want to select another HBF given the amount of depth we currently have in that position right now (Ah Chee, Bailey (if needed), K.Coleman, Madden, Michael, Prior, Starcevich, etc). One area of the field that we did struggle with in our VFL team though, was our Forward 50 department. Now even though we have been blessed that players like McCarthy, Cameron, K.Coleman, & Zorko have had played full seasons for the past 2-3 years, if a couple of those went down to long-term injuries (god forbid) in the future and players like Rayner & Bailey stay in the midfield, it wouldn't be the worst of options for us to gamble on selecting a long-term potential small forward, who can play minutes in the small midfield for us as well.

With that criteria, Jesse Motlop (176cm/74kg) seems to be the player I would fancy the most out of the small-forward department at that pick. Motlop is a quality small forward who is part of the NGA at Fremantle (they don't get 100% rights to him till Pick 40) and is the son of former North Melbourne & Port Adelaide player, Daniel Motlop. He has played for South Fremantle in the first grade/reserves at WAFL level, this year, averaged around 1-2 goals a game for them while also spending some minutes in the midfield as well with his speed & acceleration and IMO has the scope & long-term potential to be a long-term replacement for Charlie Cameron (if he moves for $$$ or when he retires). Motlop also has massive potential & ambitions in the film/podcast industry (already having a podcast) and I can see someone like Robinson and Cameron, who has similar interests in Film, Gaming & Podcasting, taking him under their wing at the club to support him.

Nice, thanks for putting in the work. Is there anything in particular causing Johnson to slip out of the first round? He would probably be my first choice but I really like the Chesser pick and is probably more of a need for us. Personally don't agree with the Motlop pick just because I don't see small forwards as a need at all.
 
Nice, thanks for putting in the work. Is there anything in particular causing Johnson to slip out of the first round? He would probably be my first choice but I really like the Chesser pick and is probably more of a need for us. Personally don't agree with the Motlop pick just because I don't see small forwards as a need at all.
To be honest, not really and I can see someone like Johnson getting selected from Pick 10 to Pick 25 so there really isn't a hard knock about his ability and if anything, he was going to be selected by Fremantle (Pick 22) next pick anyhow. I just don't think our club needs another pure-based midfielder given the stacked midfield we already have and that Ashcroft/Fletcher will be coming as well in 2023+, although if CEY & E.Smith do get delisted, I can see us possibly getting him this year (for an eye for the future) although we can always trade for one. Regardless, I think the club is nicely balanced up with quality depth in most areas of the field (besides KPP) so I feel like unless Amiss, Bazzo or Van Rooyen are still on the board, I can see us just selecting the best available talent we think is still on the board at that last pick of the first round.
 
IMO it is very clear, since Fages and his team have been in charge and our recovery from a basket case to genuine contenders is the type of player we keep on the list. Clear as daylight, the player has to possess "Contested Ball skills."
Players that were unable to address this skill have found themselves delisted or traded away. Cox, Witherden etc...
Chesser's reported weakness is his contested ball. Now, our football department may think he could develop that, but why waste a high draft pick when there are other choices with that particular strength already ingrained in their skill set.
Also I don' believe the hype that we need a running half back just because Birchall has retired. We have that area covered on the list. I think we would be looking at best available and Chesser is not, at our picks.
 
Can I play too? I did mine earlier in the week on the draft board >

ROUND ONE

1. North Melbourne - Jason Horne-Francis.
2. Collingwood - Nick Daicos (matched bid).
3. Western Bulldogs - Sam Darcy (matched bid).
4. GWS - Finn Callaghan.
5. Gold Coast - Mac Andrew.
6. Adelaide - Neil Erasmus.
7. Hawthorn - Josh Ward.
8. Fremantle - Josh Rachele.
9. Richmond - Ben Hobbs.
10. Fremantle - Matthew Johnson.
11. St Kilda - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera.
12. West Coast - Jye Amiss.
13. Essendon - Josh Goater.
14. Port Adelaide - Josh Sinn.
15. GWS - Josh Gibcus.
16. Brisbane - Tyler Sonsie.
17. Richmond - Campbell Chesser.
18. Sydney - Arlo Draper.
19. Melbourne - Darcy Wilmot.
20. Brisbane - Blake Howes.
 
20. Brisbane - Blake Howes.
As much as he seems like a good pickup, I can see GWS selecting him at Pick 15, given the fact that Callaghan is best mates with Howes and would help avoid the go-home factor between the two at the club in the long-term.
 
To be honest, not really and I can see someone like Johnson getting selected from Pick 10 to Pick 25 so there really isn't a hard knock about his ability and if anything, he was going to be selected by Fremantle (Pick 22) next pick anyhow. I just don't think our club needs another pure-based midfielder given the stacked midfield we already have and that Ashcroft/Fletcher will be coming as well in 2023+, although if CEY & E.Smith do get delisted, I can see us possibly getting him this year (for an eye for the future) although we can always trade for one. Regardless, I think the club is nicely balanced up with quality depth in most areas of the field (besides KPP) so I feel like unless Amiss, Bazzo or Van Rooyen are still on the board, I can see us just selecting the best available talent we think is still on the board at that last pick of the first round.
Fair enough, I have Johnson's ability and versatility as best available from our first pick, I think he can play off a flank to start his career and assuming CEY and Ely are leaving next season his height and class is a point of difference to our other young mids coming through.
 
IMO it is very clear, since Fages and his team have been in charge and our recovery from a basket case to genuine contenders is the type of player we keep on the list. Clear as daylight, the player has to possess "Contested Ball skills."
Players that were unable to address this skill have found themselves delisted or traded away. Cox, Witherden etc...
Chesser's reported weakness is his contested ball. Now, our football department may think he could develop that, but why waste a high draft pick when there are other choices with that particular strength already ingrained in their skill set.
Also I don' believe the hype that we need a running half back just because Birchall has retired. We have that area covered on the list. I think we would be looking at best available and Chesser is not, at our picks.
Not entirely sure I agree with that, just from last season neither Sharp or B. Coleman were contested players and it was probably something for them to work on. It may have been important at the start of the rebuild because you need to be able to win the ball but at this stage I think we should be looking for players who compliment the contested mids we already have.
 
Fair enough, I have Johnson's ability and versatility as best available from our first pick, I think he can play off a flank to start his career and assuming CEY and Ely are leaving next season his height and class is a point of difference to our other young mids coming through.
Don't get me wrong though, I wouldn't be disappointed in selecting Johnson with that pick and wouldn't be surprised if he isn't selected at West Coast's Pick 10 (12) tbh, I just selected Motlop as the sort of bolter we would select in this situation, not just on his on-field ability but his personality & traits off-field as well (which is vital these days) and would be a great opportunity to finally get some decent social media content from the club again as well with Motlop at hand to help, if needed.
 
Don't get me wrong though, I wouldn't be disappointed in selecting Johnson with that pick and wouldn't be surprised if he isn't selected at West Coast's Pick 10 (12) tbh, I just selected Motlop as the sort of bolter we would select in this situation, not just on his on-field ability but his personality & traits off-field as well and would be a great opportunity to finally get some decent social media content from the club again as well with Motlop at hand to help.
I may be wrong but it does feel as though the club puts a lot of weight into the off-field and personality of players, would be interesting to know to what extent this is.
 

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I'm reluctant to judge players too much this year on their contested ball play when a lot of them missed a lot of footy. To me, it is a risk area for a lot of the potential draftees in our draft range, Sinn and Chesser included. But I feel like we sometimes see "outside" players develop or showcase this skill late in their draft year.
 
Okay, so after much consideration and research in the past couple of weeks, I have decided to have a informative guess for my own phantom draft on how the first round selections will occur next week for everyone and how it might impact us, in terms of selecting the best available talent for us in the first round:
I like Chesser, but I'd be disappointed if we didn't pick Johnson if he's available at 16, and even more disappointed if we passed on him at 20 for Motlop. I don't think it's sensible drafting based on where we're weak in our VFL team, because we should be drafting for our AFL team, at least in the first round. At 41 we can get a player like Ronald Fejo Jr who is almost as good as Motlop, but there's no chance of finding anyone nearly as good as Johnson in midfield there.

To be honest, not really and I can see someone like Johnson getting selected from Pick 10 to Pick 25 so there really isn't a hard knock about his ability and if anything, he was going to be selected by Fremantle (Pick 22) next pick anyhow. I just don't think our club needs another pure-based midfielder given the stacked midfield we already have and that Ashcroft/Fletcher will be coming as well in 2023+, although if CEY & E.Smith do get delisted, I can see us possibly getting him this year (for an eye for the future) although we can always trade for one.
We draft for talent and trade for need. Talents like Johnson aren't available at our picks often these days. We could equally trade for a small forward. That's how we got Cameron and McCarthy after all.
 
I like Chesser, but I'd be disappointed if we didn't pick Johnson if he's available at 16, and even more disappointed if we passed on him at 20 for Motlop. I don't think it's sensible drafting based on where we're weak in our VFL team, because we should be drafting for our AFL team, at least in the first round. At 41 we can get a player like Ronald Fejo Jr who is almost as good as Motlop, but there's no chance of finding anyone nearly as good as Johnson in midfield there.


We draft for talent and trade for need. Talents like Johnson aren't available at our picks often these days. We could equally trade for a small forward. That's how we got Cameron and McCarthy after all.
Like I mentioned to before though, there are about 5-10 players (which includes Johnson) that has the same long-term potential and I would be happy us selecting any of those players at our Pick 18 (20-21). After Pick 10, the draft is very even (in terms of talent) up to I say Pick 30 this year as well, so there will always be some tough decisions to make regarding our picks of 14 (16) & 18 (20-21).
 
Not entirely sure I agree with that, just from last season neither Sharp or B. Coleman were contested players and it was probably something for them to work on. It may have been important at the start of the rebuild because you need to be able to win the ball but at this stage I think we should be looking for players who compliment the contested mids we already have.
I believe no matter at what stage of team development, a so called re-build or contending stage to possess some contested game skills is essential when we draft or recruit players. The players you mentioned, such as Sharp or Coleman, I don't ever remember both not having contested game skills. In fact Coleman's tackling game was one area that was a strength and his first few debut games certainly demonstrated that. Sharps two games so far also provided a glimpse that he has a contested game to bring.
 
IMO it is very clear, since Fages and his team have been in charge and our recovery from a basket case to genuine contenders is the type of player we keep on the list. Clear as daylight, the player has to possess "Contested Ball skills."
Players that were unable to address this skill have found themselves delisted or traded away. Cox, Witherden etc...
Chesser's reported weakness is his contested ball. Now, our football department may think he could develop that, but why waste a high draft pick when there are other choices with that particular strength already ingrained in their skill set.
Also I don' believe the hype that we need a running half back just because Birchall has retired. We have that area covered on the list. I think we would be looking at best available and Chesser is not, at our picks.
Matt Rendell’s scouting notes, when he was still employed by Collingwood, of Campbell Chesser from the U16 Championships.
7C9E94B1-3FC6-40A5-A039-0E678D5CBD5D.jpeg
I don’t believe Chesser’s “weakness” is actually a weakness, but more a function of the role he was asked to play, and that he’s played something like 3 1/2 games in two years.

 

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________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
KEY DEFENDERS: Harris Andews, Darcy Gardiner, Ryan Lester, Marcus Adams, Jack Payne.
SMALL/MEDIUM DEFENDERS: Daniel Rich, Brandon Starcevich, Callum Ah Chee, Noah Answerth, Jaxon Prior, James Madden, Deividas Uosis.
MIDFIELDERS: Lachie Neale, Dayne Zorko, Jarryd Lyons, Hugh McCluggage, Jarrod Berry, Mitch Robinson, Cam Ellis-Yolmen, Nakia Cockatoo, Tom Berry, Deven Robertson, Ely Smith, Connor McFadyen, Harry Sharp, Rhys Mathieson.
KEY FORWARDS: Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood, Daniel McStay.
SMALL/MEDIUM FORWARDS: Charlie Cameron, Lincoln McCarthy, Zac Bailey, Cam Rayner, Keidean Coleman, Blake Coleman.
RUCKS: Oscar McInerney, Darcy Fort, Tom Fullarton, Henry Smith, Kalin Lane.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
PICKS: 14, 18, 41, 60, 76, 90
Having been one tall forward down in the finals because of injury, the Lions fell just short again of making a preliminary final after finishing top four. In an ideal world they would bring another tall forward into the system to develop alongside Joe Daniher and Eric Hipwood, but Mac Andrew won’t get past pick 10, and it would be a miracle if Jye Amiss made it through to pick 14. Jacob Van Rooyen, the West Australian swingman, is an option at the Lions’ pick 14 and 18, as are a bunch of quality players of all types, with Darcy Wilmot and Campbell Chesser both tearaway defenders who could fill a gap in the list as could Tom Brown, the son of former Cat Paul Brown. Sam Butler is a forward of interest too. With 14 and 18 in their hand they will also be in discussions about draft swaps. Later in the draft they have pick 41, with a multitude of players in that category. If Jesse Motlop was still around, which is unlikely, they could bid for him to force the Dockers to match their NGA graduate. Other players that could still be around that mark include key position player Rhett Bazzo and forward Judson Clarke. The club would also be keeping a close watch on Casey Voss, son of club legend Michael, after he showed his capacity as a smart ball user out of defence when he won Sturt’s best and fairest in 2021.
 
I don’t believe Chesser’s “weakness” is actually a weakness, but more a function of the role he was asked to play, and that he’s played something like 3 1/2 games in two years.

I trust the club has a better handle on Chesser's strengths and areas for improvement. If we do decide to go with Chesser it is because your statement may be correct, re: the role he was asked to play.
 
I trust the club has a better handle on Chesser's strengths and areas for improvement. If we do decide to go with Chesser it is because your statement may be correct, re: the role he was asked to play.
Of course.

I just have a somewhat jaded view of the direction the club might take this draft period.
 
Of course.

I just have a somewhat jaded view of the direction the club might take this draft period.
Is this because your primary targets will likely be gone by our selections?
 

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Analysis 2021 draft thread

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