Analysis 2021 draft thread

[Nuggo]

Due to salary cap and list spots, developing Madden and Coleman would probably be a better strategy.

 

[chopperduck]

Ideal player type to slot into the free spot down back. Just don't see it happening though for some reason.

 

[pulpdriver]

Would be a great fit but our tight salary cap might make it unfeasible. What would be the protocol for bringing him onto a list? Pretty sure retiring makes you ineligible as a DFA. Does he need to nominate for the draft or can he come straight onto a list as a category B rookie? Would technically be an international player though not sure if having been on an AFL list previously restricts him being able to be a category B.

 

[Section 5]

I will pay more attention to Trade & Draft discussion now Lions season over.
Going on the list below (looks up to date) Collingwood are looking at a few bad years ahead.
I assume they take Daicos at somewhere between 1 & 4 most likely 1 or 2.
Looks like they will have to get some points elsewhere to make that happen
Lions are in a solid position going into the draft with only GWS in a better position of the teams finishing top 8
Richmond also in a position to rebound back into the 8 soon

 

[dlanod]

Looks like they will have to get some points elsewhere to make that happen

Another alternative is that they can go into deficit for next year.

 

[briztoon]

Another alternative is that they can go into deficit for next year.

Potentially dropping from pick 1 to pick 3, would be best case scenario there.

 

[Quigley]

Another alternative is that they can go into deficit for next year.

Which is not ideal in a rebuild.

They have already stated that someone else will need to go out this year. That might try and scrounge up some points on the departures.

 

[dlanod]

Which is not ideal in a rebuild.

They have already stated that someone else will need to go out this year. That might try and scrounge up some points on the departures.

Trading out pick 2 is not ideal in a rebuild.

They cray cray.

 

[T Rick]

Interesting how Port are being linked to both Finlayson and Dawson - the latter wouldn't come cheap. They obviously have more space in their salary cap than we are supposed to have. Surely, Hartlett and Rocky didn't take up much?

 

[Quigley]

Finlayson would not cost much.

There is also speculation about Mitchell suiting Port's needs. No way they get Dawson and Mitchell.

 

[Quigley]

Trading out pick 2 is not ideal in a rebuild.

They cray cray.

Why don't our future first trades ever work out like this.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Ideally the pies should have traded out the 2021 first for a 2022 first

 

[briztoon]

Why don't our future first trades ever work out like this.

Because we back the wrong horse.

 

[Section 5]

Another alternative is that they can go into deficit for next year.

If only the Pies could get Daicos to pull out of this years draft if that's possible
He has certainly came along at the wrong time for them if the pick 1 or 2 are correct. Which is good for most of us Pie haters
Interesting article below for those interested. It is about 1 top pick v multiple picks. And examples from years 2015 to 2019
Cam Rayner is used as one example
I assume they did proper research to come up with what is quoted.
I imagine you and other keen draft watchers will have your own thoughts about this

Draft Points, Gambles, And The Elusive Sure Thing? - The Mongrel Punt

The AFL Draft is never an exact science, but as Matt Parnell explores, the exchange of draft points for a high pick isn't always best option

themongrelpunt.com

 

[bungalow_bill]

Think many would take Bolton alone over McGrath

 

[mpal6]

Wonder if we'll consider 6+25 for 14+18.

Could help Carlton get Cerra and stay in first round. We go higher and get someone we desire.

EDIT: points wise works out to be pick 45 in our favor.

 

[lionshine]

Wonder if we'll consider 6+25 for 14+18.

Could help Carlton get Cerra and stay in first round. We go higher and get someone we desire.

EDIT: points wise works out to be pick 45 in our favor.

I'd do this deal. Allows us access to one of Erasmus/Andrew/Goater/Sinn/Gibcus/Amiss/Hobbs/Ward and pick 25 would still net us a handy player too. Carlton can trade 14 and SPS for Cerra and their first pick in the draft then moves up from 25 to 18.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

I'd do this deal. Allows us access to one of Erasmus/Andrew/Goater/Sinn/Gibcus/Amiss/Hobbs/Ward and pick 25 would still net us a handy player too. Carlton can trade 14 and SPS for Cerra and their first pick in the draft then moves up from 25 to 18.

Can't see Feo doing that. They would want 14 and 18 for Cerra.

 

[Section 5]

Think many would take Bolton alone over McGrath

Agree. You also get Drew from Port and Cox from Dockers who could become a great player

 

[briztoon]

Can't see Feo doing that. They would want 14 and 18 for Cerra.

Freo want pick 6. They want to get Erasmus and Amiss before West Coast take their first pick.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Freo want pick 6. They want to get Erasmus and Amiss before West Coast take their first pick.

I'm sure that's right.

 

[briztoon]

If only the Pies could get Daicos to pull out of this years draft if that's possible
He has certainly came along at the wrong time for them if the pick 1 or 2 are correct. Which is good for most of us Pie haters
Interesting article below for those interested. It is about 1 top pick v multiple picks. And examples from years 2015 to 2019
Cam Rayner is used as one example
I assume they did proper research to come up with what is quoted.
I imagine you and other keen draft watchers will have your own thoughts about this

Draft Points, Gambles, And The Elusive Sure Thing? - The Mongrel Punt

The AFL Draft is never an exact science, but as Matt Parnell explores, the exchange of draft points for a high pick isn't always best option

themongrelpunt.com

That article is flawed on two points.

First, last year was an exception, where the rule of only being allowed to use the same number of draft picks as available list spots was suspended.

Twomey has already confirmed that rule will be reinstated this year.

In a normal year, the Bulldogs would not be allowed to use so many picks to match the bid on JUH.

Secondly, every teams situation is different with where their picks fall in a given draft. I understand the principle of the article, but it’s not going to work that way every time.

 

[Section 5]

That article is flawed on two points.

First, last year was an exception, where the rule of only being allowed to use the same number of draft picks as available list spots was suspended.

Twomey has already confirmed that rule will be reinstated this year.

In a normal year, the Bulldogs would not be allowed to use so many picks to match the bid on JUH.

Secondly, every teams situation is different with where their picks fall in a given draft. I understand the principle of the article, but it’s not going to work that way every time.

I understand things change each year for many reasons.
If your were in the Pies situation would you take Daicos at pick 1 or 2 and possibly go into deficit assuming they don't trade anyone for picks
However the Pies more than likely trade another player this year whether the player wants to go or not if last year is any indication
Don't all Clubs have to take so many players in each years draft?
I suppose they just take players at end of draft that don't require any points being 74 onwards.

 

[briztoon]

Ideally the pies should have traded out the 2021 first for a 2022 first

There’s some speculation that the Pies are targeting Dylan Stephens from Sydney. Pies 2022 first round pick for Dylan Stephens and pick 31.

If they do carry over a small deficit in to 2022 it would then come off their 2022 second round pick.

Just seems like they are going all in on stupidity.

 

[briztoon]

I understand things change each year for many reasons.
If your were in the Pies situation would you take Daicos at pick 1 or 2 and possibly go into deficit assuming they don't trade anyone for picks
However the Pies more than likely trade another player this year whether the player wants to go or not if last year is any indication
Don't all Clubs have to take so many players in each years draft?
I suppose they just take players at end of draft that don't require any points being 74 onwards.

See my latest post above.