Analysis 2021 draft thread

[briztoon]

Lots of phantom drafts and power rankings around, from memory I've seen him rated anywhere from 7-9 to low 20s, so I'd say a little better odds of getting him at 14(16) than briz's rating as "slim".

Cal Twomey has him rated at 17 in his latest rankings.

My rationale is this.

If you are a shorter, accumulating inside midfielder, you really have to be an elite ball user to be worthy of a high pick. Especially if you don’t possess genuine speed.

There are two shorter, fast, good ball users in this draft, that were standouts at the U16 championships in 2019, Sonsie and Rachelle. But for the most part they have had indifferent years this year. And neither are the accumulator type.

Sinn was injured a bit, and never really got to show a lot this year. And some question his ability to play in the midfield, as we never got to see him have an extended run through there.

Clubs also are looking for those tall, athletic mids who are also good at football.

Especially players who can play more than one position. Kids who can start out as a flanker, and can transition in to the midfield as their body matures.

And clubs do look for those late developers that start to dominate.

Goater ticks every box.

All he has to do is test well at the Vic Combine, and I reckon you’ll see him move up Twomey’s draft board.

He got to show more than what Archie Perkins did from last year’s draft crop, spending significant game time as a midfielder. Something Perkins or Elijah Holland’s never got to do. And they both went top 10.

My personal belief is, had Victoria managed to get a full season in, with the way Goater was improving from game to game, he would be viewed as a top 5 prospect this year.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Let's say for argument's sake we trade our 2022 first into this draft. How important is getting Goater?

Would you take:
A. Goater and Bazzo (using first two picks to trade up)
B. Chesser, Van Rooyen and Johnson

 

[M Malice]

Let's say how arguments sake we trade our 2022 first into this draft. How important is getting Goater?

Would you take:
A. Goater and Bazzo (using first two picks to trade up)
B. Chesser, Van Rooyen and Johnson

That's a hard one, I really love Goater, the other one you haven't mentioned who I'm bullish on is Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera.

I wasn't keen on a KPP this year but as someone mentioned yesterday with 2 highly rated midfield prospects in Ashcroft/Fletcher coming in 2022 draft we probably should take a KPP this year.... forced to decide I'd go with A of your options, substitute NWM for one of Chesser/Johnson and it's a real toss of the coin for me.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

That's a hard one, I really love Goater, the other one you haven't mentioned who I'm bullish on is Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera.

I believe Nasiah will end up going top 10.

 

[RoyBoy17]

Triffet impressed me this year. I think he’s worth of pick. As others have mentioned Goater would be ideal but won’t get through to 14. Best mid at 14 and then a versatile option at 18. At this stage probably better to keep hold of future first.

 

[briztoon]

Let's say for argument's sake we trade our 2022 first into this draft. How important is getting Goater?

Would you take:
A. Goater and Bazzo (using first two picks to trade up)
B. Chesser, Van Rooyen and Johnson

I don’t believe our recruiters will prioritise drafting a particular player, that they would consider packaging picks to trade up.

Possible caveat. If GWS’s first pick was available, and Callaghan was on board, he’s potentially the only player recruiters might consider trading up for.


Personally I believe Bazzo has a much more clearerly defined role at AFL level, and is much more likely to achieve his ceiling in that role.

I’m not sure Van Rooyen, as a forward projects as high as Bazzo does as a defender.

And we already have Andrews and Payne as key defenders.

Bazzo can play both the Adams role or the Gardiner role, and is a better kick and offers better rebound than both.


I’ve been pretty vocal that Goater and Bazzo would be my preferred combination, but I wouldn’t trade our future first to guarantee this pairing.

 

[blueiris]

I don’t believe our recruiters will prioritise drafting a particular player, that they would consider packaging picks to trade up.

Possible caveat. If GWS’s first pick was available, and Callaghan was on board, he’s potentially the only player recruiters might consider trading up for.


Personally I believe Bazzo has a much more clearerly defined role at AFL level, and is much more likely to achieve his ceiling in that role.

I’m not sure Van Rooyen, as a forward projects as high as Bazzo does as a defender.

And we already have Andrews and Payne as key defenders.

Bazzo can play both the Adams role or the Gardiner role, and is a better kick and offers better rebound than both.


I’ve been pretty vocal that Goater and Bazzo would be my preferred combination, but I wouldn’t trade our future first to guarantee this pairing.

Would Gicbus be available later he’s getting lowly rated on big football

 

[briztoon]

I believe Nasiah will end up going top 10.

I’ve said that’s possible on the draft board.

For me it comes down to Nasiah’s running capacity, both his top line speed with ball in hand and his capacity for repeat efforts. And Nasiah’s appetite for the contact, as long as he’s not a seagull.

It really comes down to what teams prioritise in the top dozen picks.

With Ashcroft and Fletcher potentially arriving at the end of next year, I’m not that keen on the shorter players at top end; Hobbs, Sonsie, Ward or Rachelle.

 

[briztoon]

Would Gicbus be available later he’s getting lowly rated on big football

I believe it’s mostly Knightmare that doesn’t rate Gibcus highly.

Twomey and AFL Draft Central, and the ADC BigFooty posters all have Gibcus in their top 10’s.

For me, he’s a perfect fit for both GWS and GC at the top of the draft board. Even if he doesn’t go in the top 10, GWS’s second pick is ahead of our first pick.

Looking at our list, Gibcus would basically make Payne superfluous.

 

[Knightmare]

I believe it’s mostly Knightmare that doesn’t rate Gibcus highly.

Twomey and AFL Draft Central, and the ADC BigFooty posters all have Gibcus in their top 10’s.

For me, he’s a perfect fit for both GWS and GC at the top of the draft board. Even if he doesn’t go in the top 10, GWS’s second pick is ahead of our first pick.

Looking at our list, Gibcus would basically make Payne superfluous.

I'm happy to be a contrarian on Gibcus. He has been entirely ineffectual when played forward and in too few games in defence has had an impact. Offensively he isn't going to do damage and while he can read it and intercept well, he needs to bump up that frequency, particularly when he's playing a more defensively focused role, he can't just lockdown and needs to make that adjustment.

I can't say I'd be picking Gibcus if Alleer is still available. Alleer may be available in the second round. So why pay more for someone not as good? When there is a high ball coming in, there are none better than Alleer when it comes to taking those intercept marks. So having that view of Alleer and viewing him as that high conviction pick, it makes Gibcus irrelevant from a draft selection perspective when considering his projected draft range, at least if I'm looking at key defenders this year.

Gibcus is someone I'd be much more comfortable picking 20-30, much more so than top-10. I'm finding broadly there are a lot of players being spoken about as top-10 picks who I wouldn't be comfortable spending a top-10 pick on. I'm expecting there to be more first round flops, and particularly top-15 flops than people are accustomed to, with perhaps a relatively higher ratio of second round successes at the same time.

 

[briztoon]

I'm happy to be a contrarian on Gibcus. He has been entirely ineffectual when played forward and in too few games in defence has had an impact. Offensively he isn't going to do damage and while he can read it and intercept well, he needs to bump up that frequency, particularly when he's playing a more defensively focused role, he can't just lockdown and needs to make that adjustment.

I can't say I'd be picking Gibcus if Alleer is still available. Alleer may be available in the second round. So why pay more for someone not as good? When there is a high ball coming in, there are none better than Alleer when it comes to taking those intercept marks. So having that view of Alleer and viewing him as that high conviction pick, it makes Gibcus irrelevant from a draft selection perspective when considering his projected draft range, at least if I'm looking at key defenders this year.

Gibcus is someone I'd be much more comfortable picking 20-30, much more so than top-10. I'm finding broadly there are a lot of players being spoken about as top-10 picks who I wouldn't be comfortable spending a top-10 pick on. I'm expecting there to be more first round flops, and particularly top-15 flops than people are accustomed to, with perhaps a relatively higher ratio of second round successes at the same time.

Did you watch SA v WA?

 

[Quigley]

FWIW if I was actually using a top 3 pick (and not just points) I would be exceptionally nervous about taking Darcy. He is basically getting talked up to that level on the back of one game and the failure rate for those sized KPFs is high even when we have a lot of exposed form.

On KMs points about being nervous about several being talked about as top 10s I think it is a function of how even the talent is in that 5 - 20 area and the lack of games the Vic kids have played. Teams picking in the top 10 are going to need to take more of a punt then they would usually have to and that is uncomfortable. Teams picking where we are could benefit with two picks and fallers coming our way. We still need to make the right picks though.

 

[Knightmare]

Did you watch SA v WA?

I reported on the game for ESPN.

FWIW if I was actually using a top 3 pick (and not just points) I would be exceptionally nervous about taking Darcy. He is basically getting talked up to that level on the back of one game and the failure rate for those sized KPFs is high even when we have a lot of exposed form.

On KMs points about being nervous about several being talked about as top 10s I think it is a function of how even the talent is in that 5 - 20 area and the lack of games the Vic kids have played. Teams picking in the top 10 are going to need to take more of a punt then they would usually have to and that is uncomfortable. Teams picking where we are could benefit with two picks and fallers coming our way. We still need to make the right picks though.

You're right, there is an element of evenness after in particular Daicos and Horne-Francis who are those two sure-things. Darcy and Callaghan are those next two, and the upside picks who could be as good or better, or may just not be that good at all. Then it's more open to interpretation, with my preference this year going towards a lot more of those who have the performances behind them.

Your point on Darcy is interesting. He's definitely not on quality a top-3 player today if you wanted to win a game. He's a pick you take on upside and who you project he'll be 4 years from now once developed. Having the extreme height (he might be 206cm now), being that late grower, developing rapidly as a footballer and being from all reports dramatically better than he was when he last appeared prior to this year, having the football pedigree, still having to develop physically and having all the tools he has, that's why he'll attract an early pick.
For me personally that late physical and football development growth is why I'd bid on Darcy after Daicos has attracted a bid and Horne-Francis has been picked, betting that he will come good. But there has definitely been a lot less exposure and he'll come in pretty raw and likely won't do much in those first couple of years, so he's someone you go get and invest in long term without expectation of short term return.

 

[PMBangers]

FWIW if I was actually using a top 3 pick (and not just points) I would be exceptionally nervous about taking Darcy. He is basically getting talked up to that level on the back of one game and the failure rate for those sized KPFs is high even when we have a lot of exposed form.

On KMs points about being nervous about several being talked about as top 10s I think it is a function of how even the talent is in that 5 - 20 area and the lack of games the Vic kids have played. Teams picking in the top 10 are going to need to take more of a punt then they would usually have to and that is uncomfortable. Teams picking where we are could benefit with two picks and fallers coming our way. We still need to make the right picks though.

Agree on the second point, the evenness is pretty unique this year and for a lot of vic kids (Sinn, Chesser for example) a lot of their position in the order can be looked at as largely based on 16s form which is a risk, plenty of kids don't develop on a straight upward trend from that point. Not that I think either aren't worthy first round candidates that is.

I think Darcy has shown across every game he's played he's worthy of a top 5 pick hype, personally I'm more enthused on him as a key defender anyway

 

[Quigley]

Agree on the second point, the evenness is pretty unique this year and for a lot of vic kids (Sinn, Chesser for example) a lot of their position in the order can be looked at as largely based on 16s form which is a risk, plenty of kids don't develop on a straight upward trend from that point. Not that I think either aren't worthy first round candidates that is.

I think Darcy has shown across every game he's played he's worthy of a top 5 pick hype, personally I'm more enthused on him as a key defender anyway

I always thought Hipwood showed a lot more as a defender than as a forward as a junior but forwards are worth much more and you always start them up forward and if they are decent they stay there.

Late development for Darcy as a reason for him going high is interesting. He comes from a football family and has been immersed in AFL since he could walk. Physical development is one thing but skills, game sense etc are likely to be already massively ingrained.

 

[jackess]

Draft watchers love the "always thought he'd be a better defender" throwaway line

 

[PMBangers]

Late development for Darcy as a reason for him going high is interesting. He comes from a football family and has been immersed in AFL since he could walk. Physical development is one thing but skills, game sense etc are likely to be already massively ingrained.

Hasn't it been more of a case of lack of exposure and later physical development of Darcy? Didn't watch him in 16s but seems the growth spurt has played an important part in his ability to be dominant in the air

 

[Quigley]

Draft watchers love the "always thought he'd be a better defender" throwaway line

Only when they fail as a forward.

Eric was a fantastic intercept mark playing as a defender. Much better mark at the defensive end than at the forward end.

 

[dlanod]

Draft watchers love the "always thought he'd be a better defender" throwaway line

As I always used to say about Lewie Taylor...

 

[AFLQLD]

As I always used to say about Lewie Taylor...

Now there is a name I haven’t heard in a long time. Is he still on Sydney’s list?

 

[PMBangers]

On this episode of the Bigfooty Draftcast, The Wookie is joined by PM Bangers and Pie 4 Life to discuss the departures and draft choices of the Lions and Giants ahead of the Draft. Plus Week 4 of Erasmus Watch.

 

[dlanod]

Now there is a name I haven’t heard in a long time. Is he still on Sydney’s list?

He got a couple of games this year. Not sure when his contract is up, but I suspect he'll be moved on when it is.

 

[royboys4eva]

Conor McKenna has tweeted is any AFL club looking for a half back. Seems like after winning the Premiership in Ireland he is keen to come back to AFL. Worth some serious consideration I would have thought considering that's one of our weaknesses - speed off half back.

 

[cotter101]

Conor McKenna has tweeted is any AFL club looking for a half back. Seems like after winning the Premiership in Ireland he is keen to come back to AFL. Worth some serious consideration I would have thought considering that's one of our weaknesses - speed off half back.

Believe we previously showed interest back when he was at Essendon too.

 

[jackess]

Conor McKenna has tweeted is any AFL club looking for a half back. Seems like after winning the Premiership in Ireland he is keen to come back to AFL. Worth some serious consideration I would have thought considering that's one of our weaknesses - speed off half back.

Is only 25 (26 early next year)