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Analysis 2021 draft thread

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briztoon said:
Pretty much the description from multiple draft watchers.
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That players who get the footy but don't have "hurt factor" aren't being looked at? I have never seen this Browne play but reading about him, it looks like he's a nice size and knocks up getting touches, both inside and out. Unless he's particularly poor with his ball use, or can't run, I can't see why he's not worth discussing?
 
eDPS (who is draft scout and writer for AFL Draft Central) posted this yesterday in his thread on the draft board. Instead of out right rankings (which he has as well for his top 20), he looks at the draft pool in tiers of talent.

So there’s 11 players in the top 3 tiers available to all teams There’s potentially a couple of players in tier 4 who would go before our first pick, where teams before us might prioritise needs ahead of best available talent.

An example might be Fremantle, if they have two top 10 picks, select Amiss at their second pick.

A team could also look at Mac Andrew if they’re after a ruck forward, though he’s very much a longer term prospect.
eDPS said:
An update to the tiers

Tier 1
Jason Horne-Francis
Nick Daicos

Tier 2
Sam Darcy
Finn Callaghan

Tier 3
Tyler Sonsie
Josh Gibcus
Neil Erasmus
Josh Goater
Ben Hobbs
Josh Sinn
Josh Ward
Campbell Chesser
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera

Tier 4
Jye Amiss
Darcy Wilmot
Mac Andrew
Arlo Draper
Josh Rachele
Josh Fahey
Matthew Johnson
Mitchell Knevitt
Judson Clarke
Ned Long
Sam Butler
Zac Taylor
Brady Hough
Blake Howes
Mitch Owens
Jacob Van Rooyen
Matthew Roberts

Tier 5
Tom Brown
Cooper Murley
Paul Curtis
Kai Lohmann
Connor MacDonald
Jack Williams
Jesse Motlop
Charlie Molan
Angus Sheldrick
James Willis
Eric Benning
Miller Bergman
Rhett Bazzo
Corey Warner
Luke Nankervis
Jamieson Ballantyne
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I know he didn't have a great year and has been falling on many draft boards but one guy I would be very happy to have with us next year would be Sonsie. Rated top 5 coming into the year. He does not have the size that will be in vogue but he has very nice pace and is highly skilled off either foot. He has elite talent and if a bit of a down CoVid year allows us to grab him at 16 I say go for it. Risk reward equation very much in favour of it.

There are a few I am sceptical on like Roberts, Hobbs, Draper but plenty I like where we are picking.
 
briztoon said:
eDPS (who is draft scout and writer for AFL Draft Central) posted this yesterday in his thread on the draft board. Instead of out right rankings (which he has as well for his top 20), he looks at the draft pool in tiers of talent.

So there’s 11 players in the top 3 tiers available to all teams There’s potentially a couple of players in tier 4 who would go before our first pick, where teams before us might prioritise needs ahead of best available talent.

An example might be Fremantle, if they have two top 10 picks, select Amiss at their second pick.

A team could also look at Mac Andrew if they’re after a ruck forward, though he’s very much a longer term prospect.
Click to expand...

From past experience our recruiters rankings will be very different to any draft scout
 

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briztoon said:
This is where I look at our current playing list, with Zac Bailey, and Ashcroft and Fletcher coming next year. I just don’t see the need/want for players like Sonsie, Ward, Rachelle, Taylor, or Judson Clarke.

I’d take Ashcroft now over Sonsie and Ward. Taylor or Clarke would be competing for a best 22 spot with Bailey and Fletcher.

Rachelle is a Toby Green type forward mid, and is one of the best kicks in the draft. He’d be competing with Rayner and Cockatoo for a spot, but would provide a different look.
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I see your point but in my opinion we have plateaued in terms of the 25-30th player in our list coming through and challenging for a spot (especially in the midfield). Our break the glass types are Mathieson and CEY, Ely and Joyce never debuted, McFadyen would be a wait n see next year and I really hope he has a injury free, strong preseason. Not sure if he'll go midfield but here's hoping. Prior seems to be tracking for a role in backline and Deven plays a solid in-and-under as well as defensive roles currently, feeding it to outside runners whenever he got a game.

I think having another new ball winner coming through will really add to our group in 2022 and re-jig our depth with more options. If Ashcroft and Fletcher come through next year then more the merrier.
 
Quigley said:
I know he didn't have a great year and has been falling on many draft boards but one guy I would be very happy to have with us next year would be Sonsie. Rated top 5 coming into the year. He does not have the size that will be in vogue but he has very nice pace and is highly skilled off either foot. He has elite talent and if a bit of a down CoVid year allows us to grab him at 16 I say go for it. Risk reward equation very much in favour of it.

There are a few I am sceptical on like Roberts, Hobbs, Draper but plenty I like where we are picking.
Click to expand...
jackess said:
From past experience our recruiters rankings will be very different to any draft scout
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mpal6 said:
I see your point but in my opinion we have plateaued in terms of the 25-30th player in our list coming through and challenging for a spot (especially in the midfield). Our break the glass types are Mathieson and CEY, Ely and Joyce never debuted, McFadyen would be a wait n see next year and I really hope he has a injury free, strong preseason. Not sure if he'll go midfield but here's hoping. Prior seems to be tracking for a role in backline and Deven plays a solid in-and-under as well as defensive roles currently, feeding it to outside runners whenever he got a game.

I think having another new ball winner coming through will really add to our group in 2022 and re-jig our depth with more options. If Ashcroft and Fletcher come through next year then more the merrier.
Click to expand...

And these three posts pretty much cover a lot that I didn’t have the time or inclination to reply irel the other day.

Entirely possible our recruiters totally disregard list fit or needs, and draft best talent on board at our first pick.
 
Quigley said:
I know he didn't have a great year and has been falling on many draft boards but one guy I would be very happy to have with us next year would be Sonsie. Rated top 5 coming into the year. He does not have the size that will be in vogue but he has very nice pace and is highly skilled off either foot. He has elite talent and if a bit of a down CoVid year allows us to grab him at 16 I say go for it. Risk reward equation very much in favour of it.

There are a few I am sceptical on like Roberts, Hobbs, Draper but plenty I like where we are picking.
Click to expand...
Yup, I have Rachelle there with Sonsie, if one of them is available at our first pick, as players who have fallen due to Covid affecting the Vic pool.

I have the same view of Roberts and Draper.

But believe Hobbs is a top 10 talent, although he’s the inside mid that’s starting to become unfashionable. But he’s not slow, and he can find the goals. I believe he probably has a higher ceiling than Robertson.
 
briztoon said:
Yup, I have Rachelle there with Sonsie, if one of them is available at our first pick, as players who have fallen due to Covid affecting the Vic pool.

I have the same view of Roberts and Draper.

But believe Hobbs is a top 10 talent, although he’s the inside mid that’s starting to become unfashionable. But he’s not slow, and he can find the goals. I believe he probably has a higher ceiling than Robertson.
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What would you say are the main differences in Goater and Draper as prospects? I know you're pretty high on Goater so how big is the difference in terms of a draft board would you have the two?
 
mattsmob said:
What would you say are the main differences in Goater and Draper as prospects? I know you're pretty high on Goater so how big is the difference in terms of a draft board would you have the two?
Click to expand...
Goater has shown more ability to play through the midfield and find the ball. He’s bigger, and more of a smooth mover, while being athletic as well.

I question whether Draper can be anything more than a half forward at AFL level.
 
A former Port scout I know rates Draper pretty highly (not so much Roberts) for skill and the ability to impact games. Personally I am struggling to see a position for him in my limited viewings of him. He has some skills but he is not consistent enough and I am not seeing him excel anywhere.

On Hobbs I usually rate inside guys pretty highly but I worry about his skill level and athletically he does not enthuse me. He seems to be carrying a bit of condition in the vision I have seen and those rating him highly I think might be looking at upside when he truly gets fit. That could happen but I like a bit more skill and dedication in guys I am taking high.
 
Quigley said:
A former Port scout I know rates Draper pretty highly (not so much Roberts) for skill and the ability to impact games. Personally I am struggling to see a position for him in my limited viewings of him. He has some skills but he is not consistent enough and I am not seeing him excel anywhere.

On Hobbs I usually rate inside guys pretty highly but I worry about his skill level and athletically he does not enthuse me. He seems to be carrying a bit of condition in the vision I have seen and those rating him highly I think might be looking at upside when he truly gets fit. That could happen but I like a bit more skill and dedication in guys I am taking high.
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I believe he came back from an injury just before the Vic Metro v Vi Country games, and then the season was shut down.

A lot of the top end Vic kids had niggling or serious injuries at the beginning of the season (limited preseason possibly contributed to that), so quite a few didn’t get to show their best stuff.
 
If we get Goater with our first pick I would be rapt. Hoping we pick a mid with height that can play across half back and wing. Jacob Van Rooyen looks a good get at 18 as well if we are thinking about boosting our spine for a few years down the track. Maybe with our late pick we can pick up a mature player from the state leagues that can play next year as opposed to a kid.
 

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brisbanelions said:
I loved his tap work in the Geelong vs Academy. His chase down ,second efforts, marking overhead at the highest point.A lot to work with. Love MacAndrew’s 110% commitment at every contest.Insane athleticism for a 200 cm tall. One word impressive
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Probably the issue is he's going to need to build out his frame a bit to compete at AFL level. 70kgs at the moment apparently. Clearly he's got some tools though.
 
Jivlain said:
Probably the issue is he's going to need to build out his frame a bit to compete at AFL level. 70kgs at the moment apparently. Clearly he's got some tools though.
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He looks better built than Hippy at the same stage.

I like Andrew. Seems like the kind of player that the draft experts talk themselves out of instead of just looking at what he does.
 
POBT said:
He looks better built than Hippy at the same stage.

I like Andrew. Seems like the kind of player that the draft experts talk themselves out of instead of just looking at what he does.
Click to expand...
Matt Rendell saying that GWS is looking at Mac Andrew with their first pick. Seems rather high to me. Possibly the Luke Jackson effect.
 
briztoon said:
Matt Rendell saying that GWS is looking at Mac Andrew with their first pick. Seems rather high to me. Possibly the Luke Jackson effect.
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I can kind of see why he will go higher than people are anticipating. That seems an over-reach though. I really rate him highly and think he could be a generational player based on his attributes but there's risk too that his gifts don't translate to a more physical environment.
 
briztoon said:
Matt Rendell saying that GWS is looking at Mac Andrew with their first pick. Seems rather high to me. Possibly the Luke Jackson effect.
Click to expand...
I know he said that but I suspect it might be interested at pick 13 and he got his wires crossed.
 

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interesting North not spoken to Horne-Francis as yet.
Wonder if they looking to split #1 pick instead.
Crows have 4, 23, 37.. Who knows?

“No, I haven’t actually spoken to North yet, which I think most people think is a little weird. But I think we will get there soon,” he told the Herald Sun.

“I have spoken to 11 or 12 clubs but I am happy to go anywhere really. I think North have some interest but I will embrace wherever I go.

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davemc_lions said:
interesting North not spoken to Horne-Francis as yet.
Wonder if they looking to split #1 pick instead.
Crows have 4, 23, 37.. Who knows?

“No, I haven’t actually spoken to North yet, which I think most people think is a little weird. But I think we will get there soon,” he told the Herald Sun.

“I have spoken to 11 or 12 clubs but I am happy to go anywhere really. I think North have some interest but I will embrace wherever I go.

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A positive view from the young bloke
 
From Twomeys write up we could be around the mark for Goater, Sonsie or Sinn....:)
 

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