Analysis 2021 draft thread

[Quigley]

Sinn I understand, but why Amiss? He seems locked into one position that we're pretty set for.

In the reserves there are no KPFs who can kick goals. I would like to be in a situation where we can bring in someone effective when one of Daniher or Eric is injured. Daniher had a good year injury wise last year but I still do not trust his body and think it would be a good idea to build for both now and the future by taking Amiss. We have a group of young guys coming through and having a tall forward to develop with them I think would be good.

I also think he would likely be best available if he is there when we pick. That on its own is probably as good a reason to pick him as any.

 

[briztoon]

I actually think Johnson works well inside. I like him as an all around mid at the next level with high hurt factor on his disposals. He would still be in the top 3 of guys I would like at our pick along with Amiss and Sinn. Of those three he is probably the one we have best chance of getting.

Do you think if we did draft Johnson, that would relegate McCluggage to almost a permanent wing position?

I do believe Johnson would work well with Robertson and Ashcroft, as a future midfield combination.

 

[briztoon]

The WA teams having 3 of the picks in his range maybe gives us a chance.

Would you trade 16 and 20 for Sinn though?

 

[Quigley]

Do you think if we did draft Johnson, that would relegate McCluggage to almost a permanent wing position?

I do believe Johnson would work well with Robertson and Ashcroft, as a future midfield combination.

I think he might be more of a receiver type but I don't think he goes to a real outside role. I also think we are starting to add a lot of guys who can play inside and out very well so there is scope for moving guys around a fair bit. Bailey and McCluggage are both very good on the outside as well as being good onball. I think Berry, Robertson and Ashcroft are better inside but have the running ability to play periods on the outside pretty effectively.

Sharp and Fletcher are probably the two guys who are projecting as true winger types but even Sharp showed a good ability to mix things up physically this year early.

McMillan I see as a Robbo replacement in a year or two. Like for like replacement with potentially better skills under pressure and more of a goal kicker.

I am really liking the balance of the group coming through. The wild card is Rayner who could potentially take the next generation group over the top if he breaks out in the next year or two. The skill of Johnson or Sinn would be a very nice addition I think.

 

[Daniels Riches]

This could throw the cat amongst the pigeons if it happened....

Why Dockers or Eagles might pull the trigger on a Calder Cannon gun

Dashing midfielder Josh Goater has caught the eye of Western Australian clubs

www.afl.com.au

The fact he used the word 'grouse' means that he has just stepped up another peg in my book. Underrated word.

On moto g(30) using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[briztoon]

This could throw the cat amongst the pigeons if it happened....

Why Dockers or Eagles might pull the trigger on a Calder Cannon gun

Dashing midfielder Josh Goater has caught the eye of Western Australian clubs

www.afl.com.au

How so?

I have said many times that I expect Goater (and Sinn) to be gone before our first pick.

There’s a chance that WA’s potential top midfield prospect, Neil Erasmus, goes before either of the WA clubs first pick (possibly to Adelaide), and with both WA clubs looking at midfield talent in the draft, Goater should be on their radar.

It will take a lot of luck for any of our preferred midfield players to fall to our first pick.

We will need Mac Andrew, Gibcus, Amiss, Sonsie, Rachelle and Draper to all go before our first pick to have one of Sinn, Goater, NWM or Johnson to be there at our first pick.

 

[mattsmob]

We will need Mac Andrew, Gibcus, Amiss, Sonsie, Rachelle and Draper to all go before our first pick to have one of Sinn, Goater, NWM or Johnson to be there at our first pick.

There are always surprises and “reaches” during the first round and especially seeings how a lot of the kids haven’t played much footy. I’m expecting 1-2 guys outside of my personal top 14 to be taken inside the 14 picks on draft night.

 

[POBT]

There are always surprises and “reaches” during the first round and especially seeings how a lot of the kids haven’t played much footy.

Yeah, exactly. Maybe once the journos start getting real inside info closer to the draft, we can start making more definitive predictions. But it seems to me right now that there are enough unknowns that there could be quite a lot of permutations as to how the draft goes. I think it's worth keeping a reasonably open mind.

 

[Quigley]

How so?

I have said many times that I expect Goater (and Sinn) to be gone before our first pick.

There’s a chance that WA’s potential top midfield prospect, Neil Erasmus, goes before either of the WA clubs first pick (possibly to Adelaide), and with both WA clubs looking at midfield talent in the draft, Goater should be on their radar.

It will take a lot of luck for any of our preferred midfield players to fall to our first pick.

We will need Mac Andrew, Gibcus, Amiss, Sonsie, Rachelle and Draper to all go before our first pick to have one of Sinn, Goater, NWM or Johnson to be there at our first pick.

There are always a few surprises in the 10-20 area and with the lack of football I would expect that to be more the case this year. Teams are going to fall in love with potential and character and push someone up the list from where others have them. Personally I could easily see someone falling in love with the traits offered by Brown, Clarke or Chesser or the finish to the season of Taylor. Alleer plays the position of the moment and someone is going to reach for him earlier than most expect.

There will be a faller and we have shown before that we don't mind taking those types. Personally I am a bit unsure on Goater with his disposal and NVM with his aversion to contact but overall there are likely to be quite a lot of high ceiling types available where we pick.

 

[briztoon]

There are always a few surprises in the 10-20 area and with the lack of football I would expect that to be more the case this year. Teams are going to fall in love with potential and character and push someone up the list from where others have them. Personally I could easily see someone falling in love with the traits offered by Brown, Clarke or Chesser or the finish to the season of Taylor. Alleer plays the position of the moment and someone is going to reach for him earlier than most expect.

There will be a faller and we have shown before that we don't mind taking those types. Personally I am a bit unsure on Goater with his disposal and NVM with his aversion to contact but overall there are likely to be quite a lot of high ceiling types available where we pick.

My only “concern” is that we’re going to “reach” for a KPP at our first pick.

I’m not sure who pulls a surprise before our first pick. Maybe Port or GWS.

I just look at the teams ahead of us and see most have pretty clear needs that most of kids I rate, meet.

The most interest I have, is if either GWS or GC try sliding back inside the top 10.

 

[ItsRaynerGoals]

My only “concern” is that we’re going to “reach” for a KPP at our first pick.

I’m not sure who pulls a surprise before our first pick. Maybe Port or GWS.

I just look at the teams ahead of us and see most have pretty clear needs that most of kids I rate, meet.

The most interest I have, is if either GWS or GC try sliding back inside the top 10.

Hey Briz, Have I missed something regarding KPP? I thought Dany Daly in a pod cast or interview has referred to us targeting HBF or wingers. Where has the KPP talk come from?

 

[blueiris]

Hey Briz, Have I missed something regarding KPP? I thought Dany Daly in a pod cast or interview has referred to us targeting HBF or wingers. Where has the KPP talk come from?

Press suggestion because of injury to Hipwood and McStay in finals mainly although we probably need depth for our VFL team

 

[Cubs2Lions]

The other factor we need to consider (when drafting in the future) is to keep the club performing strongly 5-10 years into the future (post Fages era) and not have a massive fall off the cliff moment for an extended period of time like previous experience has shown us before.

Yes we have the team right now to push for a premiership or two don't get me wrong, but we also need to make sure we develop future younger players at the club like Sharp, Prior, T.Berry, K.Coleman & Answerth (who ain't Best 22 atm) while also finding great quality young talent at the draft, that can be part of the Best 22 in the long-term future as well, with players such as McCluggage, J.Berry, Robertson, Andrews, Starcevich, Rayner, Bailey & Hipwood, being in their prime by then.

Therefore, I wouldn't be surprised if we decide to trade/retire some of the more experienced players earlier on to help keep the salary-cap from imploding (a.k.a Collingwood style) but also help give more game-time to the next generation of players coming in at the club.

Looking five years down the track into the 2027 AFL Season for the boys as such, this would be the team I would bring in the future to help continue the sustained period of success the club has had in the past 3 years:

2027 AFL Season
B: ????????? | Andrews (31) | Answerth (28)
HB: Starcevich (28) | Payne (28) | ?????????
C: McCluggage (29) | J.Berry (29) | Bailey (28)
HF: Rayner (28) | Hipwood (30) | Coleman (27)
F: Cameron (33) | ????????? | ?????????
FO: Lane (26) | W.Ashcroft (24) | Robertson (26)
INT: L.Ashcroft (22) | Fletcher (24) | ????????? | ?????????
EM: Ah Chee (30) | Prior (27) | Sharp (25) | ?????????

From that future Best 23 presented above, we should be actively looking for trade & draft players in the next couple of years, to help fill the following voids in our squad, in order of preference and current needs:

• Half-Backs (Similar to Rich mould + Speedy)
• Key Position Defenders (Similar to Gardiner, Adams & Lester mould)
• Key Position Forwards (Similar to McStay & Daniher mould)
• Quality Ruckman/s (Similar to McInerney mould + play KPD or KPF)
• Small Forwards (Similar to Cameron & McCarthy mould)
• Added Midfield Depth (Continuous process)

 

[briztoon]

Hey Briz, Have I missed something regarding KPP? I thought Dany Daly in a pod cast or interview has referred to us targeting HBF or wingers. Where has the KPP talk come from?

As has been noted by a few here, we are short on KPP’s on list balance.

If you look at our reserve team, we have two young rucks, one young KPF and one young KPD. After that, we’re playing a general defender (Lester) and a general forward (MacFadyen) as undersized KPP’s.

Also, recruiters aren’t renowned for telling the whole truth about what they’re looking for at the draft.

If you look at our entire list balance, and a possible reserves team, we’re actually pretty set for small/general forwards and defenders.

We’re light on for KPP’s and outside mids.

Of course the reserve team can be fleshed out with half a dozen VFL top ups, and academy kids.

 

[POBT]

There is an argument that we only look unbalanced across the whole list if we persist to play 3 talls at either end of the ground in the seniors, as well as a ruckman. If we decided to play only 2 KPDs or KPFs in the seniors, we'd end up with a McStay or Gardiner (for example) playing key roles in the reserves. All of a sudden, the VFL side looks more balanced in terms of KPPs. Obviously, we won't do that but I wouldn't see the VFL lineup as necessarily the best indicator of list balance. There is the option of a slight restructure at senior level, instead of just a like for like (or height for height) replacement, should a tall not be available.

I do think we need to be thinking through long term list needs, rather than list balance for 2022. At some point in the next 2-3 years, we absolutely need to draft a KPP or two. If our drafting next year is going to be midfield heavy (and given the longer lead time on talls), then it stands to reason that we would be open to drafting a key position type this year.

 

[jackess]

Also, it'll be tough to draft a decent KPP next year along with our father sons and academy selections

 

[mish33]

Johnson would be ideal for our list needs. Complementary size and skills for the future midfield but could easily play half back early on.
I guess Sinn is similar in that regard.

My question is whether Wilmot lasts to our 2nd pick. If Johnson, Goater and Sinn are not there, I would rather ensure we get him at 16 and then whoever is available at 20 (or blackmail saints for something good!). Just looks perfect for the accountable defensive style we play.

 

[mattsmob]

The other factor we need to consider (when drafting in the future) is to keep the club performing strongly 5-10 years into the future (post Fages era) and not have a massive fall off the cliff moment for an extended period of time like previous experience has shown us before.

Yes we have the team right now to push for a premiership or two don't get me wrong, but we also need to make sure we develop future younger players at the club like Sharp, Prior, T.Berry, K.Coleman & Answerth (who ain't Best 22 atm) while also finding great quality young talent at the draft, that can be part of the Best 22 in the long-term future as well, with players such as McCluggage, J.Berry, Robertson, Andrews, Starcevich, Rayner, Bailey & Hipwood, being in their prime by then.

Therefore, I wouldn't be surprised if we decide to trade/retire some of the more experienced players earlier on to help keep the salary-cap from imploding (a.k.a Collingwood style) but also help give more game-time to the next generation of players coming in at the club.

Looking five years down the track into the 2027 AFL Season for the boys as such, this would be the team I would bring in the future to help continue the sustained period of success the club has had in the past 3 years:

2027 AFL Season
B: ????????? | Andrews (31) | Answerth (28)
HB: Starcevich (28) | Payne (28) | ?????????
C: McCluggage (29) | J.Berry (29) | Bailey (28)
HF: Rayner (28) | Hipwood (30) | Coleman (27)
F: Cameron (33) | ????????? | ?????????
FO: Lane (26) | W.Ashcroft (24) | Robertson (26)
INT: L.Ashcroft (22) | Fletcher (24) | ????????? | ?????????
EM: Ah Chee (30) | Prior (27) | Sharp (25) | ?????????

From that future Best 23 presented above, we should be actively looking for trade & draft players in the next couple of years, to help fill the following voids in our squad, in order of preference and current needs:

• Half-Backs (Similar to Rich mould + Speedy)
• Key Position Defenders (Similar to Gardiner, Adams & Lester mould)
• Key Position Forwards (Similar to McStay & Daniher mould)
• Quality Ruckman/s (Similar to McInerney mould + play KPD or KPF)
• Small Forwards (Similar to Cameron & McCarthy mould)
• Added Midfield Depth (Continuous process)

Just on the dot-points you've listed here.
Prior, Coleman, Madden and whoever we're likely to draft this season should be enough half-back depth for the future.
KPD is the biggest 'need' in my opinion and one we should be looking to address with our second pick this year.
KPF I'm not too worried about as we've got some taller forwards in the reserves still , would be comfortable waiting a couple years to draft one.
I don't think a ruck is a need for us anymore with Fort in the short term as an injury back-up and Lane as our project ruck for the next 5-10 years hopefully.
We've got a lot of small forwards/medium forwards in the reserves with B.Coleman, McFayden, T. Berry. Younger mids also generally start off at half-forward so I don't see that as a need.
The midfield depth as you've mentioned is a ongoing process however with the mids we've already got plus most likely at least one this year and the couple f/s next year I think we're set up pretty well at this stage.

Personally what I'd be trying to do this year is pick a versatile mid with 14 who's long-term best position is as a centre square midfielder however can start their career on either flank.
A KPD at 18, if they can pinch-hit forward then great however I'd be picking them based on what they can do in defence.
Best available mid/flanker at 41, ideally we can move this pick up a bit on draft night and secure a Brown, Banks, Roberts.

 

[Berrygood]

Any thoughts on Josh Rentsch as a player. A big bugger all ready, 197cms n 100kgs. A genuine tall fwd, that had tied for second most goals in his comp this year, as limited as it was, and tied winner of the morrish medal. A country lad too, we seem to like them. He doesn't seem to be rated in any top 30 draft lists I've read and could likely be around at our 3rd pick. If the kid has a bit of mongrel in him, would he be worth taking a punt on if we were looking at a fwd.

 

[briztoon]

Any thoughts on Josh Rentsch as a player. A big bugger all ready, 197cms n 100kgs. A genuine tall fwd, that had tied for second most goals in his comp this year, as limited as it was, and tied winner of the morrish medal. A country lad too, we seem to like them. He doesn't seem to be rated in any top 30 draft lists I've read and could likely be around at our 3rd pick. If the kid has a bit of mongrel in him, would he be worth taking a punt on if we were looking at a fwd.

Josh Rentsch

afl.draftcentral.com.au

 

[jjami15]

If people want us to reach for a KPD then I say Aleer. JVR to me doesn’t have any elite traits and I would actually put Bazzo before him. Some here highly rate Goater for his athleticism but his kicking on the highlights needs a lot of work. Therefore if we are going to rate players because of athleticism than Aleer should be the KPD that we should get.

 

[briztoon]

Any thoughts on Josh Rentsch as a player. A big bugger all ready, 197cms n 100kgs. A genuine tall fwd, that had tied for second most goals in his comp this year, as limited as it was, and tied winner of the morrish medal. A country lad too, we seem to like them. He doesn't seem to be rated in any top 30 draft lists I've read and could likely be around at our 3rd pick. If the kid has a bit of mongrel in him, would he be worth taking a punt on if we were looking at a fwd.

Normally we draft for need with our late picks.

In saying that, I don’t believe this is the draft to be considering KPP’s in the later rounds.

Just looking at the draft from a strategic view, I’d be looking at the best mid available at our first pick, best KPP at our second pick, and best HBF or utility at our third pick.

If we’re confident one of Alleer or Bazzo will still be available in the early second round, I would consider moving back a few spots if it secured us a future second round pick. Say looking at Geelong’s first selection at pick 22 (24), plus their future second round pick, and we send a future fourth round pick back.

 

[mpal6]

Would you trade 16 and 20 for Sinn though?

No, that's too much.

 

[cotter101]

Would you trade 16 and 20 for Sinn though?

I’d consider downgrading our first round pick next year slightly if meant moving our first pick this year to get him if there was a club it could work with.

 

[briztoon]

I’d consider downgrading our first round pick next year slightly if meant moving our first pick this year to get him if there was a club it could work with.

So 16 and our future first for Sinn and a future second?