Analysis 2021 draft thread

[mattsmob]

With GWS reportedly interested in Owens and both their picks are probably too early to select him I wonder what we'd have to offer to get pick 18 up to their pick 13. Could it be a swap of our future 1st for their future 2nd and 4th?

Bris receive: Pick 13, GWS future 2nd and 4th
GWS receive: Pick 18, Bris future 1st

 

[irel]

With GWS reportedly interested in Owens and both their picks are probably too early to select him I wonder what we'd have to offer to get pick 18 up to their pick 13. Could it be a swap of our future 1st for their future 2nd and 4th?

Bris receive: Pick 13, GWS future 2nd and 4th
GWS receive: Pick 18, Bris future 1st

Who is this amazing talent at pick 13 that we can't get at 18 that would require an additional future first round pick?

 

[mattsmob]

Who is this amazing talent at pick 13 that we can't get at 18 that would require an additional future first round pick?

Personal opinion but I think there's 13 players then a tier drop. Unfortunately our pick 14 sits just outside of that however I'm still confident one of those players will slip through to 14 but if we had the opportunity to add two of those players then that would be worth swapping our first for their second and getting an additional 4th.

 

[irel]

Personal opinion but I think there's 13 players then a tier drop. Unfortunately our pick 14 sits just outside of that however I'm still confident one of those players will slip through to 14 but if we had the opportunity to add two of those players then that would be worth swapping our first for their second and getting an additional 4th.

Their second may end up in the low 30's as I expect GWS would be a top 4 contender. So you would swap a potential 10-18 future first round pick to move up a few places in current draft to get a player that in all probabilities we would get equally talented at pick 18. Pick 18 is quite valuable trading wise, as it is the last of the first round. I expect clubs would come in wanting pick 18 on the night. Your scenario has not added any value and IMO significantly weakened our hand.

 

[mattsmob]

Their second may end up in the low 30's as I expect GWS would be a top 4 contender. So you would swap a potential 10-18 future first round pick to move up a few places in current draft to get a player that in all probabilities we would get equally talented at pick 18. Pick 18 is quite valuable trading wise, as it is the last of the first round. I expect clubs would come in wanting pick 18 on the night. Your scenario has not added any value and IMO significantly weakened our hand.

I don't see GWS being top 4 and I believe we will be, in the end I think it may be about a 10 pick difference which doesn't really matter for us as it's just points. The point of the trade is to get a more talented player higher up the draft, not equally talented.
It's not pick 18 that's usually valuable, it's the first pick on the second night. Pick 18 is valuable this year because it's the last pick you can select someone that's NGA without the bid being matched, which is why GWS could be interested if they are wanting Owens (Saints NGA).
I disagree with your last point, going from 18 to 13 strengthens our draft hand and we get additional points for next season, potentially we could do some extra swaps and try to get their future 3rd instead to get more points.

 

[irel]

I don't see GWS being top 4 and I believe we will be, in the end I think it may be about a 10 pick difference which doesn't really matter for us as it's just points. The point of the trade is to get a more talented player higher up the draft, not equally talented.
It's not pick 18 that's usually valuable, it's the first pick on the second night. Pick 18 is valuable this year because it's the last pick you can select someone that's NGA without the bid being matched, which is why GWS could be interested if they are wanting Owens (Saints NGA).
I disagree with your last point, going from 18 to 13 strengthens our draft hand and we get additional points for next season, potentially we could do some extra swaps and try to get their future 3rd instead to get more points.

Ehh, what?
How do we get additional points moving a first rounder to a second round?
Your scenario we've lost points for next year.

 

[mattsmob]

Ehh, what?
How do we get additional points moving a first rounder to a second round?
Your scenario we've lost points for next year.

Alright I haven't worked it out with the points calculator, maybe we would need a future 2nd and 3rd to equal our first next year. Either way I still think it'd be a good deal to get two really good picks this year.

 

[irel]

Alright I haven't worked it out with the points calculator, maybe we would need a future 2nd and 3rd to equal our first next year. Either way I still think it'd be a good deal to get two really good picks this year.

...which we have. We are ideally placed to get our target at 14 and wait for a slider or trade pick 18 for a beneficial deal.

 

[Quigley]

I would not be trading our first for next year if we thought that Fletcher and/or McMillan are likely to move up draft boards next year. If we need a reasonable amount of points for those guys as well as Ashcroft we probably need to keep our first because it may be uncomfortable otherwise to clear all the list spots we would need to accumulate picks to match.

 

[mattsmob]

...which we have. We are ideally placed to get our target at 14 and wait for a slider or trade pick 18 for a beneficial deal.

I think it could be better, at 14 we're relying on a team going early on someone. I just believe the gap between a Sinn/Goater/Johnson and the player at 18 is big enough to make a trade like this interesting, especially if we could get two players of that quality.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

Personal opinion but I think there's 13 players then a tier drop. Unfortunately our pick 14 sits just outside of that however I'm still confident one of those players will slip through to 14 but if we had the opportunity to add two of those players then that would be worth swapping our first for their second and getting an additional 4th.

As the draft approaches, I’ve been starting to read a few phantom/guide etc. Just noting that a lot of the big footy draft watches use the same resources and discuss amongst themselves, so their opinions tend to align, as mentioned by others earlier on this thread.

It appears our first pick is last in line for that potential tier drop, when in reality there won’t be that much difference in potential prospects between our first two picks. However I do see merit in trying to upgrade our second pick slightly, but it can’t be at a huge cost, which makes any hypothetical hard.

One options could be the Saints. If we were legitimately in to Owens, the Saints might consider moving back. Pick 9 down to 18 mightn't be viewed as vast as it is around here, they gain access for two player rated at ~20 (similar to the blues/dog trade that eventuate to McKay/ Dunkley) while also potentially pocketing points and/or a future second rounder.
I like the idea of moving to that range, it potentially gives us access to Johnson and Sinn.

I’m also of the believe we can’t trade our future first this year, leaves us too short IMO. Seen the Bulldogs pull of a simply trade down to generate easy points this year, and I believe we need to keep that option open for next year.

 

[POBT]

In a normal year, without genuine Academy or Father-Son prospects in the next year and with a full season of underaged footy, I would seriously consider sacrificing next year's draft to maximise our returns this year.
All things being equal, I always think you're better off getting talent in the door a year earlier.

I think the presence of 1 hugely promising F/S, and two other prospects, means we need to be thinking a bit more strategically.

I think we need to make sure we don't screw ourselves too much for the 2023 draft - I'm not suggesting we spend our 2021 picks to load up on the 2022 draft with pick value but we need to maintain flexibility for 2022 while still adding talent this year. We can't run a risk that we have to borrow too much from the future to bank points for 2022. But we also shouldn't sell our 2021 value too much on the assumption that the talent tied to us will continue to progress. There's a tightrope act required and I think our current position is a nice balanced approach.

The thing that would make me seriously consider using a bit of 2022 capital to move up the ladder this year would be if there was an identified need player that we were targeting, and the type of player that is otherwise hard to find. I guess I'm specifically talking about an difference making mid, an elite key forward or potentially an elite level key back. But it doesn't seem to me that this draft has that type of prospect likely to be available, outside the top handful of picks. And we just don't have the capital to get into the pointy end of the draft.

This seems to me to be a year where we're about adding best 22 potential talent to the list. If we got an absolute A grader with a pick in the teens, then we'd be very lucky. But we could have a very good draft if we find a couple of nice pieces to the puzzle, without necessarily drafting franchise type players. When I hear people talking about adding back flankers or outside mids, I'm not so concerned about getting higher in the draft order as history shows there's generally good depth for those roles.

Finally, the other reason I wouldn't stuff around too much with this year's draft is that I have very limited confidence in the non-professional draft analysis of this year's crop. It seems to me that this will be a year where it will be more about the recruiter seeing a prospect play a quarter of footy and then using things like player interviews and other intel to make decisions. There's always a gap between the evidence that the professionals have access to and the draft enthusiasts or even journalists. But I think that gap is expanded this year. Therefore, the reliability of the phantom drafts, power rankings and other forms of publicly available analysis is diminished. I think there's a very good chance that some public favourites aren't so high on club boards (more so than in normal years).

There will be the same number of quality players in this year's group so it makes sense to retain picks in the draft. But they will be harder to find and, further, I think there will be larger discrepancies between the club boards this year. Obviously higher picks are always better but I think that this year could be a year where a club's targeted players are less likely to be targeted by other clubs. If that's true, there's less utility in making relatively minor moves up the draft order prior to draft night. Obviously, draft night trades are different as it will be dictated to by each club's draft boards and their assessment of available talent in the live environment.

 

[Dalions]

As the draft approaches, I’ve been starting to read a few phantom/guide etc. Just noting that a lot of the big footy draft watches use the same resources and discuss amongst themselves, so their opinions tend to align, as mentioned by others earlier on this thread.

It appears our first pick is last in line for that potential tier drop, when in reality there won’t be that much difference in potential prospects between our first two picks. However I do see merit in trying to upgrade our second pick slightly, but it can’t be at a huge cost, which makes any hypothetical hard.

One options could be the Saints. If we were legitimately in to Owens, the Saints might consider moving back. Pick 9 down to 18 mightn't be viewed as vast as it is around here, they gain access for two player rated at ~20 (similar to the blues/dog trade that eventuate to McKay/ Dunkley) while also potentially pocketing points and/or a future second rounder.
I like the idea of moving to that range, it potentially gives us access to Johnson and Sinn.

I’m also of the believe we can’t trade our future first this year, leaves us too short IMO. Seen the Bulldogs pull of a simply trade down to generate easy points this year, and I believe we need to keep that option open for next year.

Considering GWS have pick 13 and are considering Owens, I am not sure the Sts would consider moving as far down the order as 18.

 

[briztoon]

Their second may end up in the low 30's as I expect GWS would be a top 4 contender. So you would swap a potential 10-18 future first round pick to move up a few places in current draft to get a player that in all probabilities we would get equally talented at pick 18. Pick 18 is quite valuable trading wise, as it is the last of the first round. I expect clubs would come in wanting pick 18 on the night. Your scenario has not added any value and IMO significantly weakened our hand.

Not getting in to the whole pick swap discussion, but I agree with mattsmob about the talent drop off, especially between 13 and 18.

To puts some potential names to the picks, it’s the difference between getting Johnson and Sinn (@Quigley’s preferred players at our first pick), or getting Sinn and Knevitt.

A lot really depends on what the club hopes to do with our future first round pick. If we’re only planning on trading it for more points, then potentially upgrading our pick 18 should definitely be an option.

As an example, look what the Bulldogs have traded their pick 17 for. Is it any better than upgrading a first round pick 5 spots plus points for matching a father son bid.

 

[mattsmob]

Not getting in to the whole pick swap discussion, but I agree with mattsmob about the talent drop off, especially between 13 and 18.

To puts some potential names to the picks, it’s the difference between getting Johnson and Sinn (@Quigley’s preferred players at our first pick), or getting Sinn and Knevitt.

A lot really depends on what the club hopes to do with our future first round pick. If we’re only planning on trading it for more points, then potentially upgrading our pick 18 should definitely be an option.

As an example, look what the Bulldogs have traded their pick 17 for. Is it any better than upgrading a first round pick 5 spots plus points for matching a father son bid.

Just on matching bids for next year, if we are able to match a bid for Ashcroft in the first round but go into deficit by matching Fletcher in the second is it only our 2023 second round pick that gets pushed back or is it our first pick in 2023 that gets pushed back?

 

[Section 5]

The last paragraph from todays AFL article
....

Clubs will get a final look at Victorian-based prospects at special training sessions next Monday. As reported by AFL.com.au last week, the Metro and Country players who were invited to the NAB AFL Draft Combine will gather at respective sessions at Sandringham to be put through their paces for recruiters with medical assessments also to take place.
...

https://www.afl.com.au/news/687001/why-draft-pick-swapping-has-hit-the-wall-for-the-moment

 

[briztoon]

Alright I haven't worked it out with the points calculator, maybe we would need a future 2nd and 3rd to equal our first next year. Either way I still think it'd be a good deal to get two really good picks this year.

In any such trade, we would not be getting equal points back. No team gets equal points back trading up the draft.

 

[briztoon]

I would not be trading our first for next year if we thought that Fletcher and/or McMillan are likely to move up draft boards next year. If we need a reasonable amount of points for those guys as well as Ashcroft we probably need to keep our first because it may be uncomfortable otherwise to clear all the list spots we would need to accumulate picks to match.

At this stage, neither Fletcher or McMillan are considered potential first round draftees by most draft watchers who follow bottom age players.

Are there any comparable players in this year’s draft crop to Fletcher or McMillan?

Maybe Fletcher might be comparable to Zac Taylor this year.

 

[Quigley]

Just on matching bids for next year, if we are able to match a bid for Ashcroft in the first round but go into deficit by matching Fletcher in the second is it only our 2023 second round pick that gets pushed back or is it our first pick in 2023 that gets pushed back?

The round the bid comes in gets pushed back

 

[Quigley]

At this stage, neither Fletcher or McMillan are considered potential first round draftees by most draft watchers who follow bottom age players.

Are there any comparable players in this year’s draft crop to Fletcher or McMillan?

Maybe Fletcher might be comparable to Zac Taylor this year.

Most draft watchers would have paid zero attention to the Div 2 kids at this stage. It is going to be interesting to see how the Allies go next year. At the moment I think they should have a really strong side.

For McMillan maybe Judson Clarke is the comparison at this stage with the hope that he looks more like Rachele this time next year.

Fletcher's game from what I have seen is similar to NWM. Moves not as fluidly but the same kind of outside player with elite kicking skills who probably does not get the ball as much as you would like.

 

[briztoon]

In a normal year, without genuine Academy or Father-Son prospects in the next year and with a full season of underaged footy, I would seriously consider sacrificing next year's draft to maximise our returns this year.
All things being equal, I always think you're better off getting talent in the door a year earlier.

I think the presence of 1 hugely promising F/S, and two other prospects, means we need to be thinking a bit more strategically.

I think we need to make sure we don't screw ourselves too much for the 2023 draft - I'm not suggesting we spend our 2021 picks to load up on the 2022 draft with pick value but we need to maintain flexibility for 2022 while still adding talent this year. We can't run a risk that we have to borrow too much from the future to bank points for 2022. But we also shouldn't sell our 2021 value too much on the assumption that the talent tied to us will continue to progress. There's a tightrope act required and I think our current position is a nice balanced approach.

The thing that would make me seriously consider using a bit of 2022 capital to move up the ladder this year would be if there was an identified need player that we were targeting, and the type of player that is otherwise hard to find. I guess I'm specifically talking about an difference making mid, an elite key forward or potentially an elite level key back. But it doesn't seem to me that this draft has that type of prospect likely to be available, outside the top handful of picks. And we just don't have the capital to get into the pointy end of the draft.

This seems to me to be a year where we're about adding best 22 potential talent to the list. If we got an absolute A grader with a pick in the teens, then we'd be very lucky. But we could have a very good draft if we find a couple of nice pieces to the puzzle, without necessarily drafting franchise type players. When I hear people talking about adding back flankers or outside mids, I'm not so concerned about getting higher in the draft order as history shows there's generally good depth for those roles.

Finally, the other reason I wouldn't stuff around too much with this year's draft is that I have very limited confidence in the non-professional draft analysis of this year's crop. It seems to me that this will be a year where it will be more about the recruiter seeing a prospect play a quarter of footy and then using things like player interviews and other intel to make decisions. There's always a gap between the evidence that the professionals have access to and the draft enthusiasts or even journalists. But I think that gap is expanded this year. Therefore, the reliability of the phantom drafts, power rankings and other forms of publicly available analysis is diminished. I think there's a very good chance that some public favourites aren't so high on club boards (more so than in normal years).

There will be the same number of quality players in this year's group so it makes sense to retain picks in the draft. But they will be harder to find and, further, I think there will be larger discrepancies between the club boards this year. Obviously higher picks are always better but I think that this year could be a year where a club's targeted players are less likely to be targeted by other clubs. If that's true, there's less utility in making relatively minor moves up the draft order prior to draft night. Obviously, draft night trades are different as it will be dictated to by each club's draft boards and their assessment of available talent in the live environment.

Just a couple of comments on your post.

I believe there is a difference in talent between say a Johnson or Goater, and the mids available around our second selection or later.

The guys from Rookie Me (formally Draft Central) are full time (and part time) scouts. That’s their job. They are the guys you here commentating on the NAB League games on the app. They work with Rookie Me, and have access to the preseason and post season testing of all the kids. Some have worked in the talent pathways before. They are as close to club scouts as we internet randoms are going to get.

 

[mattsmob]

The round the bid comes in gets pushed back

As long as we have the points to match first round bids would you be too concerned with a deficit in the second round or later?

 

[briztoon]

Most draft watchers would have paid zero attention to the Div 2 kids at this stage. It is going to be interesting to see how the Allies go next year. At the moment I think they should have a really strong side.

For McMillan maybe Judson Clarke is the comparison at this stage with the hope that he looks more like Rachele this time next year.

Fletcher's game from what I have seen is similar to NWM. Moves not as fluidly but the same kind of outside player with elite kicking skills who probably does not get the ball as much as you would like.

I know the guys at Rookie Me (formally Draft Central) watched all the Lions and Suns academy games early in the year, that includes the Lions intra academy games.

 

[Quigley]

I know the guys at Rookie Me (formally Draft Central) watched all the Lions and Suns academy games early in the year, that includes the Lions intra academy games.

Did Fletcher play in those games? I don't recall him doing so and I can't remember McMillan either.

For a good idea of these guys you wanted to be watching the Champs match and the QAFL. I am sure they watched the former but unless you had someone on the watch list going in it usually takes a while to really pick up on someone playing well and start watching for their involvement as well. As an individual it is hard to watch and evaluate many during a match. At the Champs most clubs will have numerous scouts at games and each scout will usually have a job to concentrate on 4 or so guys. Trying to watch how guys move off the ball etc takes focus away from others and watching everyone is virtually impossible.

In fairness though Rookie Me aka Draft Central has really come on and do a great job.

 

[POBT]

I think the "amateur" side of draft analysis has come a long way and so I'm not knocking the people who do it. But surely it is not unreasonable to suggest that clubs usually have access to more information and, in a year with limited games and so limited footage, the fact that clubs can conduct draftee interviews, meet with families, speak to schools, speak to coaches and maybe even get some other sneaky intel creates a larger knowledge gap for the non-club watchers to overcome.