Analysis 2021 draft thread

[Quigley]

Sonsie is one who is all over the shop and seems to be dropping with a lot of people at the moment. If we were to go with Wilmott at 16 then I would love us to grab Sonsie at 20. We don't have a lot of depth in our small forward brigade and Sonsie has the ability to play both forward and midfield which would be handy swapping time with the likes of Rayner going forward. Sonsie is just one of those players for me that does everything well. He was a bit inconsistent this year but had an excellent game for Box Hill in the VFL which demonstrated his ability to step up in class.

Speaking of Wilmott, whilst I would prefer us to get him at 20 if we took him at 16 I would not be worried. Wilmott has a very balanced game in that he is good both defensively and offensively. I love his composure at the back and he is one of those guys who is not rushed and just seems to have time. Skills are good, likes to take the game on with run and defensively I think he is one of the best small medium defenders available. He is also the youngest in the draft with a birthday on 31 December so you would expect upside. We have been taking a lot of kids with late birthdays in recent years (although not Metro kids) and it would not shock me if we continued that with Wilmott.

This is really a year where there are a lot of kids I like available where we are picking. I find myself swinging a lot with guys I want.

 

[briztoon]

The decline of Draper down the list has been interesting to watch and I'm not 100% sure why. It seemed like he was being talked about as a 10-15 pick during the year and is now outside the top 20 on a lot of lists. What I've seen of his form looked good and, while he missed footy, this is a year where that shouldn't matter too much given half the draftees will have missed games due to lockdowns.

If Draper is there at pick 20, I'm taking him. Looks a talent to me.

Roberts has had a bigger slide.

Was talked about as a top 5 kid before his injury. Now he’s falling out of peoples to 25 or 30.

I believe a lot their slide has been due to them failing to perform well at SANFL league level and in the challenge matches against WA.

 

[irel]

Haven't really studied the draftees as much this year, but he may be one of the few draftees of recent times to have a Steiner education for a decent part of their education. Seems like the kind of guy who would fit well into our team

That would challenge the AFL Private Education template for draftees.

 

[briztoon]

Lists are arbitrary. You argue there is a group of 13 that we must trade up in order to "not miss out on getting those players." You reference Twomey's 13 is a guide. Well, Twomey's 13 do not include my preferred players, or I can guarantee you our club's or any of the other club's top 13.

You ask for names I would be happy with any of the following with our picks and still argue we did well at our picks. Sonsie, Draper, Owens, Fahey, Sinnn, Butler, Warner in that group of players (not in that order) Few others if I put my mind to it.

If history tells us anything our team that would be charged with the responsibility of selecting on the night would have done their job and selected or traded on the night having done so to benefit the club, not because of getting in some arbitrary sexxxy list number.

It is easy to fall in love with viewing a 2 minute highlights package and be disappointed and have a melt. Who is to say that a combination of Sinn and Knevitt is not the preferred option of our club, and the best option. In fact that may very well be the preferred scenario.

I didn’t argue we must trade up.

 

[T Rick]

Not knowing how our draft team operates I assume we will have a rank order list of up to 50 potential draftees and simply cross them off as they get drafted and when it is our turn we take the "best available" on our list? Is that how it works?

 

[irel]

Not knowing how our draft team operates I assume we will have a rank order list of up to 50 potential draftees and simply cross them off as they get drafted and when it is our turn we take the "best available" on our list? Is that how it works?

Swannie confirmed that in the podcast we will be drafting on tallent. We will be picking best available from our list of players ranked in order of preference. When it's our turn we pick the highest ranked on our list.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

Well it's not easy to work out because it is all subjective. There are many different opinions as to the top 13.



Is the above not definitive enough?

Looking at Shifter and Twomey's draft order.

1. North - Jason Horn-Francis
2. Pies- Josh Daicos (Bid by GWS, matched)
3. WB - Sam Darcy (Bid by GWS, matched)
4. GWS- Josh Gibcus
5. Suns - Finn Callaghan
6. ADE- Josh Rachelle
7. Hawks - Josh Ward
8. Freo - Ben Hobbs
9. Rich - Neil Erasmus
10. Freo - Jye Amiss
11. STK - Mac Andrew
12. WCE - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
13. ESS - Matt Johnson

There are names missing from the so called top 13 that I would happily draft without having to trade up.
In fact through my very little research and limited viewing I have at least seven draftees not listed I would happily draft without moving our current draft picks. At least four not listed above I would have in my personal top 10.
But I would rather support this view: “I’m expecting this draft to be one of those ones where down the track we look back on and think, ‘Jesus, how the hell did that happen?’,” Sydney Swans list manager Kinnear Beatson told foxfooty.com.au.

Other then Pick 14 (16) with us selecting Sinn (if still available), there are 6-7 players that I would consider to select at our Pick 18 (21-22) from a whole range of positions, given the evenness of the talent being on shown at the draft talent and lack of underage footy being played across the country (in particular Victoria) this year as well.

If the draft goes 100% right into our way (which it most likely won't but who knows), I think the club would be very pleased and satisfied with the selections they would have chose, if the first round went down from my predictions, as shown below:
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2021 AFL DRAFT NIGHT (1st Round)
Pick 1 - Jason Horne-Francis (North Melbourne)
Pick 2 - Nick Daicos (Collingwood) (F/S Selection)*
Pick 3 - Sam Darcy (Western Bulldogs) (F/S Selection)*
Pick 4 - Finn Callaghan (Greater Western Sydney)
Pick 5 - Josh Gibcus (Gold Coast)
Pick 6 - Josh Rachelle (Adelaide)
Pick 7 - Josh Ward (Hawthorn)
Pick 8 - Neil Erasmus (Fremantle)
Pick 9 - Ben Hobbs (Richmond)
Pick 10 - Jye Amiss (Fremantle)
Pick 11 - Mac Andrew (St. Kilda)
Pick 12 - Matthew Johnson (West Coast)
Pick 13 - Josh Goater (Essendon)
Pick 14 - Arlo Draper (Port Adelaide)
Pick 15 - Nasiah Waganeen-Milera (Greater Western Sydney)
Pick 16 - Josh Sinn (Brisbane)
Pick 17 - Jacob Van Rooyen (Richmond)
Pick 18 - Josh Fahey (Greater Western Sydney) (Academy Selection)^
Pick 19 - Rhett Bazzo (Sydney)
Pick 20 - Mitch Owens (St.Kilda) (Academy Selection)^
Pick 21 - Tyler Sonsie (Melbourne)
Pick 22 - Blake Howes (Brisbane)

*- Father/Son Selection
^- Academy Selection
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Regarding our pick in the 40s as well, I can see us selecting a overage KPP stock type player (low-risk/high-reward) to help fill the lack of depth in the KPD & KPF positions at the club & VFL level and wouldn't be against selecting any of those players that are shown down below, that would realistically be at our pick:

The 18 mature-age guns your club could steal at the 2021 AFL draft

Bargain buys: The 18 mature-age stars your club could steal at the AFL draft

www.foxsports.com.au

• Charlie Dean (20) (Williamstown/Key Defender)
• Blake Schlensog (21) (South Fremantle/Key Forward & Key Defender)
• Noah Pegoraro (24) (East Fremantle/Key Defender)
• Jack Haynes (24) (Woodville-West Torrens/Utility)*
• Matthew Hammelmann (25) (Aspley/Key Forward)

*- Able to play tall defence/forward positions, while can also play minutes in the midfield (if needed).

 

[irel]

It appears this forum have locked on to Sinn as a "sell the farm" to draft him. It certainly would be interesting to see the reactions if he is not selected even if available.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

It appears this forum have locked on to Sinn as a "sell the farm" to draft him. It certainly would be interesting to see the reactions if he is not selected even if available.

Wouldn't mind Chesser though as an alternative option to fill that position, if Sinn doesn't manage to get to our first pick.

 

[POBT]

Roberts has had a bigger slide.

Was talked about as a top 5 kid before his injury. Now he’s falling out of peoples to 25 or 30.

I believe a lot their slide has been due to them failing to perform well at SANFL league level and in the challenge matches against WA.

I guess I've got my head around why Roberts has slid and the weaknesses that have become more apparent throughout the year but I don't see that anyone has a huge knock on Draper, nor is it that some of the others have had the opportunity to prove themselves as better performed.

Having said that, I am wary of the SA/WA junior form lines. Not saying that I don't think the form can be trusted but there's a little question in my mind, given there wasn't a national champs to frank that form against traditionally strong Victorian teams.

Mind you, trying to judge the Vic talent is even harder.

 

[Nuggo]

Sort of feels this draft will show which Talent/Recruitment Managers are at the top of their game.

 

[mattsmob]

It appears this forum have locked on to Sinn as a "sell the farm" to draft him. It certainly would be interesting to see the reactions if he is not selected even if available.

Nobody is saying sell the farm for anyone, all I've said is that there's a gap between who's available at 13 to who's available at 18 and I stick by that, not saying the kids at 18 aren't good I just like the ones at 13 better. Most people have also stated that all this is just personal opinion and that the club almost certainly doesn't view the draft the same way they do.

 

[Dalions]

Steve Conole has been stuck in Melbourne all year so I wonder if we will go for Vic talent?

 

[Nuggo]

Steve Conole has been stuck in Melbourne all year so I wonder if we will go for Vic talent?

Reckon he has been hanging out in the Country

 

[mal68au]

Reckon he has been hanging out in the Country

Funny, I have actually just seen him in Vic country now

 

[Section 5]

Swannie confirmed that in the podcast we will be drafting on tallent. We will be picking best available from our list of players ranked in order of preference. When it's our turn we pick the highest ranked on our list.

I think that is what they will do for the first two picks
Possibly 41 may come into calculations on draft night if needed for those first 2 picks. If 41 does get used in this way we will get something back

Whatever our third pick is i hope they use it on someone they believe is ready & capable of playing AFL in 2022. So a speculative pick.
That's just my opinion but the club obviously knows best what the plan is for now and the future

I think the draft nominations are due 17-11-2021 so maybe a more detailed list of mature age players can be confirmed then

 

[Section 5]

Just noticed this article link below from foxsports after my above post. Article dated today
18 mature aged players for upcoming draft

The 18 mature-age guns your club could steal at the 2021 AFL draft

Bargain buys: The 18 mature-age stars your club could steal at the AFL draft

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[M Malice]

Wasn't there some chatter that we were going to offer Tom Joyce and/or Connor Ballenden a spot/s as VFL top ups for us or is my memory playing tricks on me?

 

[Berrygood]

Wasn't there some chatter that we were going to offer Tom Joyce and/or Connor Ballenden a spot/s as VFL top ups for us or is my memory playing tricks on me?

Yep you're right. Add Brock Smith as well. I've read Tom Joyce has been chased by a cpl of wafl clubs and I reckon he may prefer to go home and play than stay here. Same with Brock Smith, I reckon if he got an offer to play at home in S.A. he'd take it too.

 

[briztoon]

Yep you're right. Add Brock Smith as well. I've read Tom Joyce has been chased by a cpl of wafl clubs and I reckon he may prefer to go home and play than stay here. Same with Brock Smith, I reckon if he got an offer to play at home in S.A. he'd take it too.

Brock Smith is country Vic.

 

[blueiris]

Sonsie is one who is all over the shop and seems to be dropping with a lot of people at the moment. If we were to go with Wilmott at 16 then I would love us to grab Sonsie at 20. We don't have a lot of depth in our small forward brigade and Sonsie has the ability to play both forward and midfield which would be handy swapping time with the likes of Rayner going forward. Sonsie is just one of those players for me that does everything well. He was a bit inconsistent this year but had an excellent game for Box Hill in the VFL which demonstrated his ability to step up in class.

Speaking of Wilmott, whilst I would prefer us to get him at 20 if we took him at 16 I would not be worried. Wilmott has a very balanced game in that he is good both defensively and offensively. I love his composure at the back and he is one of those guys who is not rushed and just seems to have time. Skills are good, likes to take the game on with run and defensively I think he is one of the best small medium defenders available. He is also the youngest in the draft with a birthday on 31 December so you would expect upside. We have been taking a lot of kids with late birthdays in recent years (although not Metro kids) and it would not shock me if we continued that with Wilmott.

This is really a year where there are a lot of kids I like available where we are picking. I find myself swinging a lot with guys I want.

I think the reason behind Twomey taking Wilmot at 16 is he thinks Sydney draft him before our pick 20 considering he’s bid on Faray

 

[blueiris]

Steve Conole has been stuck in Melbourne all year so I wonder if we will go for Vic talent?

Will it be depended on Covid Vaccination will clubs know before the draft on who’s had their vaccinations before the draft though

 

[blueiris]

I feel We need a bit more X-Factor to go with players like Bailey and Rayner looking at our picks and who would be available Goater and Sonsie are the two that standout the most

 

[Dalions]

Will it be depended on Covid Vaccination will clubs know before the draft on who’s had their vaccinations before the draft though

Yes

https://www.afl.com.au/news/687139

 

[briztoon]

Will it be depended on Covid Vaccination will clubs know before the draft on who’s had their vaccinations before the draft though

Yes.