Analysis 2021 draft thread

[jackess]

I tend to listen to the club.

Ambrogio has mentioned outside run and half backs

 

[Dalions]

Ambrogio has mentioned outside run and half backs

Correct, as has Conole.
Chesser and Wilmot, I would be pretty happy with actually.
And on talent they will be there or thereabouts with our picks.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...a/news-story/200a5a7ad406cf4a5bb8736f725f1d09

The Brisbane Lions also hold selections late in the first round (Picks 14 and 18), but it’s understood they’re keen on drafting a small forward and a rebounding defender, especially after the retirement of Grant Birchall.

Campbell Chesser (Sandringham Dragons) and Darcy Wilmot (Northern Knights) are rebounding half-backs that are expected to be taken in the 15-25 pick range, while tough GWV Rebels forward-mid Sam Butler — the brother of premiership Tiger and Saints forward Dan Butler — would also be in the mix.

Unless Sinn is somehow still available at the draft table at our pick (which is highly unlikely), Chesser strikes to me as a future Lions type player in the waiting for us, similar to when we chose Robertson in 2019. He addresses our future needs well (rebounding defender with speed and kicking skills, who can also play wing/midfield in the future), has quality athletic/fitness skills & background, but more importantly is also a great character, who presents well and brings elite standards on & off the field, which we have always looked highly of players of that calibre ever since Fages & Nobes came to the club at the end of 2016.

Regarding us selecting a small forward at the draft, I can't see that player reaching our Best 22 in the distant future (2-3 years) but maybe if its more a long-term option with Rayner & Bailey spending more time in the midfield in the future, I kinda see why would be interested for one but I think it all depends on what mature players (QAFL, etc) we bring in for our VFL team for support and what holes we need to fill from there cause tbh I can't see that player entering our AFL Best 23 (unless injuries) for a while. The other thing is there isn't a lot of small forward depth at our pick 18 (20-22) this year meaning there will be limited options to choose from. Other then Butler though, I wouldn't be against us selecting someone like Jesse Motlop (South Fremantle) or Judson Clarke (Dandenong Stingrays) for that future small-forward for us.

If we were planning the players that we choose around our picks with the information we have now (which btw I thought we were just going for best talent alone but oh well), I wouldn't be surprised if we went in this direction (in order of peference IMO):

Pick 14 (16)- Rebounding Defender/Half-Back
(1.) Campbell Chesser | (2.) Josh Sinn | (3.) Darcy Wilmot

Pick 18 (20-22)- Small Forward/Midfielder
(1.) Jesse Motlop | (2.) Sam Butler | (3.) Tyler Sonsie | (4.) Judson Clarke

Pick 41 (Mid 40s)- Overage Key Defender
(1.) Leek Alleer | (2.) Charlie Dean | (3.) Jack Haynes | (4.) Blake Schlensog

 

[mattsmob]

Unless Sinn is somehow still available at the draft table at our pick (which is highly unlikely), Chesser strikes to me as a future Lions type player in the waiting for us, similar to when we chose Robertson in 2019. He addresses our future needs well (rebounding defender with speed and kicking skills, who can also play wing/midfield in the future), has quality athletic/fitness skills & background, but more importantly is also a great character, who presents well and brings elite standards on & off the field, which we have always looked highly of players of that calibre ever since Fages & Nobes came to the club at the end of 2016.

Regarding us selecting a small forward at the draft, I can't see that player reaching our Best 22 in the distant future (2-3 years) but maybe if its more a long-term option with Rayner & Bailey spending more time in the midfield in the future, I kinda see why would be interested for one but I think it all depends on what mature players (QAFL, etc) we bring in for our VFL team for support and what holes we need to fill from there cause tbh I can't see that player entering our AFL Best 23 (unless injuries) for a while. The other thing is there isn't a lot of small forward depth at our pick 18 (20-22) this year meaning there will be limited options to choose from. Other then Butler though, I wouldn't be against us selecting someone like Jesse Motlop (South Fremantle) or Judson Clarke (Dandenong Stingrays) for that future small-forward for us.

If we were planning the players that we choose around our picks with the information we have now (which btw I thought we were just going for best talent alone but oh well), I wouldn't be surprised if we went in this direction (in order of peference IMO):

Pick 14 (16)- Rebounding Defender/Half-Back
(1.) Campbell Chesser | (2.) Josh Sinn | (3.) Darcy Wilmot

Pick 18 (20-22)- Small Forward/Midfielder
(1.) Jesse Motlop | (2.) Sam Butler | (3.) Tyler Sonsie | (4.) Judson Clarke

Pick 41 (Mid 40s)- Overage Key Defender
(1.) Leek Alleer | (2.) Charlie Dean | (3.) Jack Haynes | (4.) Blake Schlensog

Don't disagree with what you've said but I really hope the report was just guesswork by someone. Pick 14 feels too early in this draft to start targeting a specific position, fortunately it's looking like best available will be a halfback/mid anyways but at 18 I seriously doubt a small forward will be best available. Personally I'd be waiting to see what Blake Coleman looks like after another season and hopefully big pre-season before looking at drafting another small forward.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

Don't disagree with what you've said but I really hope the report was just guesswork by someone. Pick 14 feels too early in this draft to start targeting a specific position, fortunately it's looking like best available will be a halfback/mid anyways but at 18 I seriously doubt a small forward will be best available. Personally I'd be waiting to see what Blake Coleman looks like after another season and hopefully big pre-season before looking at drafting another small forward.

I hope it's true also that it's just a clickbait article that's just guesses what we will select although in saying that, I don't think we will be going for a pure midfielder at pick 18 (20-22) this year, given the fact that Ashcroft & Fletcher (F/S & Academy) will be coming over in next years draft, meaning we don't necessary need more future midfield depth at the club this year at least with our second pick in the first round and tbh I kinda don't think its wise of us to select a KPD at that pick as well, so maybe it's best to select a future small forward for us to develop with an eye of the long-term future.

 

[mattsmob]

I hope it's true that it's just a clickbait article that's just guesses what we will select although in saying that, I don't think we will be going for a pure midfielder at pick 18 (20-22) given the fact that Ashcroft & Fletcher (F/S & Academy) will be coming over in next years draft, meaning we don't necessary need more future midfielders at the club this year at least with our second pick in the first round.

Yep agree, either Bazzo (bit early but I'd be ok with it) a versatile flanker/outside mid (Chessar, Wilmott, Draper, Butler) or a slider that nobody expects to be there would be my preference at 18.

 

[Mighty Lions]

Yep agree, either Bazzo (bit early but I'd be ok with it) a versatile flanker/outside mid (Chessar, Wilmott, Draper, Butler) or a slider that nobody expects to be there would be my preference at 18.

My money is on Wilmot coming to the club with our first pick in this years draft with Chesser or Draper our next best.

 

[petrolium]

Hey folks, I come in peace. Do you believe you guys would trade 18 to us for 22 or 23 + future R3 (tied to Carlton)? Gives you guys a good pick to help match for Ashcroft next year and only sliding 4-5 spots this year. It has been mentioned on our board as a possible option.

 

[jackess]

Hey folks, I come in peace. Do you believe you guys would trade 18 to us for 22 or 23 + future R3 (tied to Carlton)? Gives you guys a good pick to help match for Ashcroft next year and only sliding 4-5 spots this year. It has been mentioned on our board as a possible option.

Possibly on draft night if we thought we could draft the same person at either pick

 

[mpal6]

Hey folks, I come in peace. Do you believe you guys would trade 18 to us for 22 or 23 + future R3 (tied to Carlton)? Gives you guys a good pick to help match for Ashcroft next year and only sliding 4-5 spots this year. It has been mentioned on our board as a possible option.

We might look for future 2nd to be honest. That's the price we paid for a one spot swap with Port to get Deven Robertson. If some club is desperate and the trade suits us, we may do it for future 2nd.

 

[Dalions]

Hey folks, I come in peace. Do you believe you guys would trade 18 to us for 22 or 23 + future R3 (tied to Carlton)? Gives you guys a good pick to help match for Ashcroft next year and only sliding 4-5 spots this year. It has been mentioned on our board as a possible option.

A future second would be the more likely requirement, particularly on draft night.

 

[irel]

Hey folks, I come in peace. Do you believe you guys would trade 18 to us for 22 or 23 + future R3 (tied to Carlton)? Gives you guys a good pick to help match for Ashcroft next year and only sliding 4-5 spots this year. It has been mentioned on our board as a possible option.

Future third is not persuasive enough for us to do that trade. Other clubs would value pick 18 far more as the draft progresses live. Having to delist a player next year just so we can hold a third round pick to have a few extra points is not compelling.

 

[T Rick]

Just checking for understanding - we only have 3 list spots and no other spaces on our list for rookies.

 

[briztoon]

Just checking for understanding - we only have 3 list spots and no other spaces on our list for rookies.

That is correct.

 

[briztoon]

My money is on Wilmot coming to the club with our first pick in this years draft with Chesser or Draper our next best.

Just my personal opinion, if the players I like are off the board, which I expect, I would be happy with Chesser and Wilmot at our first two picks.

But I would prefer Chesser at our first pick, as I am very confident Wilmot would get through to our second pick. I’m not confident of the reverse happening though.

 

[Dalions]

Just my personal opinion, if the players I like are off the board, which I expect, I would be happy with Chesser and Wilmot at our first two picks.

But I would prefer Chesser at our first pick, as I am very confident Wilmot would get through to our second pick. I’m not confident of the reverse happening though.

My thoughts exactly.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

The KPP issue I see is that Andrews, Adams and let's say Gardiner are in our best 22 that leaves Payne as the only other genuine key position defender on our list as Lester is certainly more of a 3rd tall, what makes it more worrying is that all of Adams, Gardiner and Payne have had significant injuries for long periods of time. Personally I can't see how we don't pick a KPD at some stage in this draft whether its early or late.

Others have said this before in this thread, and while I don't disagree, I view that as really being a need for a mature KPD who can contribute straight away if needed, rather than a raw 18 year old who will need a few years to come good. So I'd be fine with Charlie Dean or Blake Schlensog at 41. Ironically, Sam Skinner would have been a great addition to the roster.

 

[irish]

Remind me why we need two half backs ?

 

[Dalions]

Remind me why we need two half backs ?

Because they have the potential to move on to a wing or mid over time.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Remind me why we need two half backs ?

I wouldn't be opposed to it because we sorely lack speed, and both Sinn and Chesser have scope to move into midfield in time. But given the choice I'd rather sign one half-back and someone like Tyler Sonsie or Arlo Draper who is more suited to midfield.

 

[irish]

What about van Rooyen ,could use. A forward as we have precious little as back up

 

[POBT]

If someone is playing exclusively as a half back in junior footy, it raises questions for me. Those questions might have acceptable answers but it at least raises the possibility that they are played in that role to mask a deficiency which might get exposed at senior level. A good proportion of the best HBFs at AFL level seemed to have played at least a bit of midfield in the junior ranks.

It seems like there are a few players around our selections this year who made their names as a half back. Then, because of injury or lockdown, they haven't really had a chance to go into the midfield to show something different. It will be interesting to see how that's rated.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

What about van Rooyen ,could use. A forward as we have precious little as back up

JVR does better as a defender, and I think there's better value at our first pick. Not opposed to taking him with our second pick though. If the issue is depth, there's always Hammelmann at 41.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

JVR does better as a defender, and I think there's better value at our first pick. Not opposed to taking him with our second pick though. If the issue is depth, there's always Hammelmann at 41.

We need a KPD that can ready to play now though, not some skinny 18 year old draftee like JVR who will need to develop in the reserves for 3-4 years at a minimum before being able to perform at the AFL level. Someone like Dean (20), Alleer (20), Schlensog (21) or even Haynes (24) can provide that KPD role for us in the short-term future for the club at the VFL level and would be also a suitable injury replacement in our AFL side, if injuries do arise in the D50 for us in the future.

 

[briztoon]

What about van Rooyen ,could use. A forward as we have precious little as back up

Just my personal opinion, Van Rooyen lacks the size and athleticism to play as a KPF. I believe his role at senior afl level is as a third tall defender, and I don’t believe he has the ceiling of Darcy Gardiner, who was rated as the best pure defender in his draft year, but his lack of height saw him slide.