Analysis 2021 draft thread

[briztoon]

I'm going with Chesser over Wilmot because he's a bigger body and we all know us Lions fanatics love our big bodied types.......

Why can’t we have both?

 

[FFB1]

I'm going with Chesser over Wilmot because he's a bigger body and we all know us Lions fanatics love our big bodied types.......

Not wrong. CEY, Jared Jansen, to name a couple.

 

[jfn]

Yeah Hayes sorry, auto-correction on my phone decided to mess with me.

The problem with getting an 18 year old though as that KPP for us is that he doesn't develop enough to warrant a future due to the lack of development at the reserves level from getting smashed every game, similar to what happened with Brock Smith down back for us (Joyce different story with injuries/personal events and was extremely unluckly to be delisted). I rather we select an experienced, young overage VFL/SANFL/WAFL KPP who can play serviceable footy in our D50 at the lower-level so we don't get smashed by 15 goals numerous times so that VFL side can develop properly and wouldn't be the worst replacement in the AFL side, if injuries occur, with our Pick 41. Like you said though, if our club thinks he is the best choice player talent-wise and fits our needs at Pick 18 (20-21), I wouldn't be that fussed depending on who we selected at Pick 14 (16).

The 18 mature-age guns your club could steal at the 2021 AFL draft

Bargain buys: The 18 mature-age stars your club could steal at the AFL draft

www.foxsports.com.au

Jack Hayes (Woodville-West Torrens – SANFL)

Age: 24

Position: Utility (192cm, 91kg)

Perhaps he can be ignored no longer. With 123 goals from 93 games, Hayes has been a SANFL star for years. This year, he finished with a highly unusual – yet mightily impressive – set of statistics. The 192cm utility averaged just under 20 disposals, 2.4 clearances, 2.1 intercept marks, 7.1 score involvements and 1.1 goals. In Round 14 against West Adelaide, Hayes booted 2.4 from 29 disposals and a lazy 20 marks (seven intercept marks). He then produced one of his best games for the season in the Eagles’ grand final triumph, booting 1.2 from 26 disposals, nine marks and seven clearances to win the Jack Oatey medal for best in ground. A rare key forward, key defender, midfielder set of numbers that no doubt would’ve caught recruiters’ eyes.

Hayes sounds like a younger and better option over the next few years to Lester. Impressive stats.

 

[mish33]

What are everyone's thoughts about Knevitt?
First impression I had was he was pretty unco and I didn't see the big deal, but the more I look at him, the more he looks like an excellent option for us. He has a lot of athletic qualities that we love and as a replacement for Robbo, would be perfect as a def winger. He's tall, quick, can run...
Also that BBM that we all know we need!

 

[PattyKwasagun]

What are everyone's thoughts about Knevitt?
First impression I had was he was pretty unco and I didn't see the big deal, but the more I look at him, the more he looks like an excellent option for us. He has a lot of athletic qualities that we love and as a replacement for Robbo, would be perfect as a def winger. He's tall, quick, can run...
Also that BBM that we all know we need!

He just looks a little bit like Charlie Constable to me. Likely to be found out as being a bit too slow for AFL level.

 

[mish33]

He just looks a little bit like Charlie Constable to me. Likely to be found out as being a bit too slow for AFL level.

His highlights don't show any signs of pace, but I'd be surprised if Constable ran a sub 3s 20m. Or 6:18 for 2km. Those are serious numbers for a 193cm mid.

Edit: Charlie ran 3.05s in his draft year and his best beep test was 12.9 which is pretty poor. I think we're looking at a different player. Actually, reading DC profile on CC, it was his footy iq that was his strength back then.

Question is whether Knevitt's lack of foot skills is too big an issue.

 

[briztoon]

He just looks a little bit like Charlie Constable to me. Likely to be found out as being a bit too slow for AFL level.

Way more athletic than Constable. Is a noted endurance runner, which Constable was not, with good top end speed. He just hasn’t shown much burst acceleration.

 

[scoman]

I'm going with Chesser over Wilmot because he's a bigger body and we all know us Lions fanatics love our big bodied types.......

Size matters?

 

[briztoon]

Size matters?

Don’t you mean SizeMatters!

 

[POBT]

I think there are a few factors that might suggest we can afford to be brave with that pick 20 selection:

- we will have already had the opportunity to pick a good player at #16
- we've got a good young list, with pretty much all the critical roles covered off on a long-term basis and so no burning need to "nail" the pick
- we think we're going to get at least 1 good player in next year's draft which helps offset the risk

Someone like a Knevitt might be seen as having enough upside to warrant taking him earlier than we would if we really needed to nail that pick. When we last had a couple of picks in this bracket, we took Starce who was athletically gifted but hadn't really put it all together on the field. I'm not right into Knevitt because I like to see athletic gifts translate on field and I haven't quite got my head around him in that respect. But the logic of going a bit more adventurous with pick 20, having hopefully banked a good prospect at #16, makes sense to me. My preference would be Mitch Owens, if we were to go down that path but I'm on board with the strategy, in general.

Of course, we could go the other way and pick someone with huge upside at #16 and then a more bankable player (eg Wilmot) at #20. Wilmot doesn't hugely excite me as a top 20 selection but he would make sense as a draft package if he was coupled with someone who had high upside.

Pick 20 is in an interesting area of the draft, historically. Players taken in the 19-21 range include Fyfe, [PLAYERCARD]Isaac Smith[/PLAYERCARD], Crozier, Tom Mitchell, Impey, Laverde, Burton, Fiorini, [PLAYERCARD]Ben McKay[/PLAYERCARD], English, Cumming, Hayward, Will Powell, Coleman-Jones, [PLAYERCARD]Oscar Allen[/PLAYERCARD], Stocker. Looking at the draft over the years, the success rate of +/-1 of pick 20 has got better and better. In late 2000s, you might have seen 1 good player taken each year with picks 19-21. In more recent years, 2 and often 3 best 22 players are being taken in that range. Even last year's selections in Macrae, Holmes and Bowey have all played senior footy and shown something.

 

[Berrygood]

Was just reading [PLAYERCARD]Hugh Greenwood[/PLAYERCARD], delisted to be relisted by the Suns, has been poached by North. Was thinking maybe we should offer them CEY as a big bodied replacement. He fills the big bodied mid hole for the Suns and would more than likely get more game time there, would probably extend his career too. It also gets him off our list and gives us the opportunity to grab a smoke in the rookie draft. Win win in my eyes.

 

[briztoon]

Was just reading Hugh Greenwood, delisted to be relisted by the Suns, has been poached by North. Was thinking maybe we should offer them CEY as a big bodied replacement. He fills the big bodied mid hole for the Suns and would more than likely get more game time there. It also gets him off our list and gives us the opportunity to grab a smoke in the rookie draft. Win win in my eyes.

Honestly, why would the Suns sign CEY. Yes it’s a win for us, but CEY is a worse runner than Lyons. He’d barely get a game at GC.

 

[Dalions]

Honestly, why would the Suns sign CEY. Yes it’s a win for us, but CEY is a worse runner than Lyons. He’d barely get a game at GC.

He won’t, because we are stuck with him.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

The Basics

Campbell Chesser	Darcy Wilmot
186 cm	183 cm
83 kg	75 kg
Sandringham Dragons (Murray Bushrangers if he didn't board)	Northern Knights
VIC Country	VIC Metro
Midfielder - Balanced/ Rebounding Defender	General Defender - Well Rounded
NAB League Games: 3 (one injury effected game)	NAB League Games: 7
Avg. Disposals: 18.3	Avg. Disposals: 15.1
Avg. Marks: 3	Avg. Marks: 2.7
Avg. Tackles: 1.7	Avg. Tackles: 2.3

My response in the original thread was that if we were only going to draft one of them, it feels like it'd be dependent on whether we believe Starcevich can move into the midfield, because Wilmot seems like a relatively similar player down back. If we're confident in Starce making the transition, then maybe we'd go for Wilmot, and if not, then maybe Chesser since he has greater midfield scope. My (realistic) dream is for us to come away with Sinn and Chesser, two Sandringham speedsters who can potentially interchange between the backline and the midfield.

 

[Flossie32]

Did anyone read that article on the lions draft and how the QLD teams are considering not bringing up to QLD any Victorian or NSW players until January 2022?
They mustn’t want them to quarantine, but wouldn’t that put These guys behind in their schedule. Watching friends who got drafted to Victorian clubs start training with their teams in Dec 21 would suck I reckon.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

Was just reading Hugh Greenwood, delisted to be relisted by the Suns, has been poached by North. Was thinking maybe we should offer them CEY as a big bodied replacement. He fills the big bodied mid hole for the Suns and would more than likely get more game time there, would probably extend his career too. It also gets him off our list and gives us the opportunity to grab a smoke in the rookie draft. Win win in my eyes.

They must have been happy enough to potentially lose him or they wouldnt have went down this path. I think they’ve went this way, so it limits the potential backlash if it turns out like Lyons to us.

If it was a simple as needing to make the minimum 3 changes, I’m sure the AFL would have assistant in some capacity, counting the two pre-selection academy pick up as an example.
The other option would have been to delist and re-rookie McPherson, they tried to give him away with no buyer, so there was no need to put Hugh up.

I think this is a pre-emotive move as there salary cap is so tight, the Brodie trade has to confirm that. They also have Miller, Rankine, Lukosius, King and Ainsworth out of contract next year.
I think they were happy either way this went, they knew there was a decent chance he could have got picked up

 

[briztoon]

Did anyone read that article on the lions draft and how the QLD teams are considering not bringing up to QLD any Victorian or NSW players until January 2022?
They mustn’t want them to quarantine, but wouldn’t that put These guys behind in their schedule. Watching friends who got drafted to Victorian clubs start training with their teams in Dec 21 would suck I reckon.

I haven’t read the article, but they’d basically be up here for a week before the afl went on it’s Christmas break.

First year players always have a reduced load, so the club would probably give the players a training program, similar to what every other player gets for their break.

 

[briztoon]

They must have been happy enough to potentially lose him or they wouldnt have went down this path. I think they’ve went this way, so it limits the potential backlash if it turns out like Lyons to us.

If it was a simple as needing to make the minimum 3 changes, I’m sure the AFL would have assistant in some capacity, counting the two pre-selection academy pick up as an example.
The other option would have been to delist and re-rookie McPherson, they tried to give him away with no buyer, so there was no need to put Hugh up.

I think this is a pre-emotive move as there salary cap is so tight, the Brodie trade has to confirm that. They also have Miller, Rankine, Lukosius, King and Ainsworth out of contract next year.
I think they were happy either way this went, they knew there was a decent chance he could have got picked up

North was happy to take McPherson and pick 19. McPherson said he didn’t want to leave GC.

 

[POBT]

Did anyone read that article on the lions draft and how the QLD teams are considering not bringing up to QLD any Victorian or NSW players until January 2022?
They mustn’t want them to quarantine, but wouldn’t that put These guys behind in their schedule. Watching friends who got drafted to Victorian clubs start training with their teams in Dec 21 would suck I reckon.

I just don't think there's time. We normally give new players a few days to get up here. Let's say they arrive on the weekend following the draft and go into some form of quarantine. They then come out of quarantine on around the 12th of December. They'd probably get a week of training before heading home for xmas. Is that worth being stuck on quarantine for two weeks?

 

[Flossie32]

I haven’t read the article, but they’d basically be up here for a week before the afl went on it’s Christmas break.

First year players always have a reduced load, so the club would probably give the players a training program, similar to what every other player gets for their break.

Yep good points made - hopefully they get up here early Jan even with family to check the city out etc and settle in before training starts most probably 2nd or 3rd week of Jan.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

North was happy to take McPherson and pick 19. McPherson said he didn’t want to leave GC.

That just strengthens the argument of McPherson being the better candidate, if the Suns weren't prepared to actually lose anyone off their list.

I can understand McPherson hesitation in that situation too. Salary cap dump is very foreign in AFL, It’s basically the first player to agree to, My contract is that poorly managed it cost my team a decent pick just to get rid of me.
At least the Brodie can be hidden behind the transfer of draft years.

 

[twhowler]

Yep good points made - hopefully they get up here early Jan even with family to check the city out etc and settle in before training starts most probably 2nd or 3rd week of Jan.

Might depend on when borders open. There will be no quarantine from 80% vax (or December 17, whatever is first) so if that turns out to be December 12 worth getting them up and having a sighter, if it’s December 17 maybe not…
Still even if it’s only a few days seems weird not to get them up. Might be the dreaded soft cap striking again.

 

[Dalions]

Might depend on when borders open. There will be no quarantine from 80% vax (or December 17, whatever is first) so if that turns out to be December 12 worth getting them up and having a sighter, if it’s December 17 maybe not…
Still even if it’s only a few days seems weird not to get them up. Might be the dreaded soft cap striking again.

Personally I believe that if we can’t get our draftees up here before January then all clubs shouldn’t get their draftees until then either.

 

[blueiris]

Cal Twomey has Us linked to Wilmot Chesser Howes and Butler in he’s current Formguide taking 2 of these with our picks I’d personally prefer Chesser and Howes

 

[M Malice]