Analysis 2021 draft thread

[mattsmob]

The closer it is getting the draft I am starting to think that it might be Goater that may slip through, if we want him.

I've got the same feeling about NWM, it's gone pretty quiet on him with a few of the Vic kids getting some attention after the training session they had the other day. Port may be the one that takes him before our pick though.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I don't watch enough tape to be a real draft watcher myself, so I just use the analysis of the best draft experts. Foremost among them is eDPS , who has released his final power rankings for the year:



Going by this, if Sinn, Nasiah and Goater are all off the board, I'd hope we draft Sonsie with our first pick. He may not have had the greatest year but I still remember him absolutely dominating the U16 championships. I'd be confident in him playing a big part in our future midfield alongside Robertson and Ashcroft. And hopefully Chesser or Wilmot are available at our second pick.

 

[jackess]

Pick 1 - North - Jason Horne-Francis
Pick 2 - Wb - Sam Darcy - Bid Matched
Pick 3 - Gws - Finn Callaghan
Pick 4 - Coll - Nick Daicos - Bid Matched
Pick 5 - Gc - Mac Andrew
Pick 6 - Adel - Josh Rachele
Pick 7 - Haw - Josh Ward
Pick 8 - Freo - Josh Goater
Pick 9 - Rich - Ben Hobbs
Pick 10 - Freo - Jye Amiss
Pick 11 - Gws - Neil Erasmus - Gws trade with Stk
Pick 12 - Rich - Josh Gibcus - Rich trade with Wce
Pick 13 - Ess - Josh Sinn
Pick 14 - Port - Sammy Butler
Pick 15 - Stk - Nasaiah Wanganeen-Milera
Pick 16 - Bris - Matt Johnson
Pick 17 - Wce - Arlo Draper
Pick 18 - Syd - Tyler Sonsie
Pick 19 - Melb - Tom Brown
Pick 20 - Bris - Jacob Van Rooyen

If Smythe is correct from the draft tipping thread I'd love to trade our first next year for an early second this year (and some points next year) and then draft Wilmot as well

A big mid (even if not bullocking), a highly rated KPP prospect and a quick, well rounded small back would be one hell of a haul. And then a couple of classy mids next year should set us up reasonably well

 

[Nuggo]

Year in year out you see players whom have had a great junior year heading into the draft that just don't have the tools to make it at AFL level and visa versus for players whom may not have had a great year but have the tools. In some aspect we have a tough draft hand with 14 and 18 as we are outside of the certainties but then again if we are good enough we can capitalise on other clubs misfortunes with these picks. One of the more intriguing drafts for me.

Just can't wait for the media report cards

 

[POBT]

Year in year out you see players whom have had a great junior year heading into the draft that just don't have the tools to make it at AFL level and visa versus for players whom may not have had a great year but have the tools. In some aspect we have a tough draft hand with 14 and 18 as we are outside of the certainties but then again if we are good enough we can capitalise on other clubs misfortunes with these picks. One of the more intriguing drafts for me.

Just can't wait for the media report cards

I think there's both a challenge and an opportunity with our position in the draft.

The challenge is that, as you say, the picks would appear to be just outside where the common view of the top "tiers" are. Whether those tiers are right, whether the same players are in the same tiers across the clubs, and whether the Lions talent board looks like the common view remain to be seen. But assuming that there's a top 12 or 13, picking at 16 is indeed a challenge.

The opportunity is two fold in my opinion. Having two bites of the next tier, which has talent in it, is a big opportunity. I don't see anyone saying that next tier doesn't contain talent, just that there's more questions over their future. The second part of that is that, in a draft year characterised by uncertainty and a paucity of solid draft intelligence, pick 16 could easily end up as good as pick 5. It feels like this draft (a bit like last year too) could be a throwback to drafts 10-15 years ago which were as much an art as a science.

 

[mattsmob]

I think there's both a challenge and an opportunity with our position in the draft.

The challenge is that, as you say, the picks would appear to be just outside where the common view of the top "tiers" are. Whether those tiers are right, whether the same players are in the same tiers across the clubs, and whether the Lions talent board looks like the common view remain to be seen. But assuming that there's a top 12 or 13, picking at 16 is indeed a challenge.

The opportunity is two fold in my opinion. Having two bites of the next tier, which has talent in it, is a big opportunity. I don't see anyone saying that next tier doesn't contain talent, just that there's more questions over their future. The second part of that is that, in a draft year characterised by uncertainty and a paucity of solid draft intelligence, pick 16 could easily end up as good as pick 5. It feels like this draft (a bit like last year too) could be a throwback to drafts 10-15 years ago which were as much an art as a science.

Personally I think we're one pick out of the top tier, there's 13 guys that I'd be really stoked about getting and we sit at pick 14
(not including any f/s). I feel pretty comfortable thinking that the clubs have a different view to me so I can see at least one of the top 13 falling to our pick. From there pick 18 is in a good spot for us and we can just take our best available from a large group of players. Unless we can get our pick 18 into the top 10-12 I'm pretty happy with where our picks are at.

 

[M Malice]

I'd be over the moon with any of Sonsie, Sinn, Johnson, Goater at 16, and any of Wilmott, Chesser, Knevitt, Draper, Bazzo, Owens, Howes at 20.

Pick 41 > Sam Banks please, if he's gone Leek Alleer if we haven't taken a KPD earlier.

I'd also be fine with us taking Wilmott or Chesser at 16.

 

[bungalow_bill]

History tells us some of these tier 1 top 13 or whatever picks don't live up to expectations or are a complete bust while a couple in the teens will be guns. A good chance one of our picks will be a very good player

 

[spotthedog1]

I'd be over the moon with any of Sonsie, Sinn, Johnson, Goater at 16, and any of Wilmott, Chesser, Knevitt, Draper, Bazzo, Owens, Howes at 20.

Pick 41 > Sam Banks please, if he's gone Leek Alleer if we haven't taken a KPD earlier.

I'd also be fine with us taking Wilmott or Chesser at 16.

I may be a bit groupthink, but I think Sonsie is more likely to be there at 20 than someone like Chesser or Wilmot.

My draft prediction:

One of the favoured names thought to be inside the top 12 (maybe a Goater or someone similar) falls to us at 14 (excl F/S)... And we skip them and go for someone bigfooty doesn't rate. Something like us skipping NWM and picking up Sam Butler.

I have no inside info, and only have Bigfooty draft knowledge. Names picked fairly randomly.

 

[jackess]

November latest: With Chesser tipped to be off the board by the early 20s,the Lions would be hard-pressed to forgo the speedster with their second selection given their keen interest. Butler and Howes also remain in the mix for those selections. GWV Rebels best-and-fairest winner Molan, a smaller utility, could come into the frame later in the piece.

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[Pns_blister]

There will be players from the top 15 which will slide, allowing us to take one if we want. Just last year from Twomey's phantom draft, 3 players slid out of his top 15 (Oliver Henry, Reef McInnes & Brayden Cook) for Archie Perkins, Luke Pedlar and Conor Stone.

 

[briztoon]

There will be players from the top 15 which will slide, allowing us to take one if we want. Just last year from Twomey's phantom draft, 3 players slid out of his top 15 (Oliver Henry, Reef McInnes & Brayden Cook) for Archie Perkins, Luke Pedlar and Conor Stone.

Are you sure Archie Perkins wasn’t in Twomey’s top 10?, because I thought he was top 10 most of the year.

 

[pulpdriver]

November latest: With Chesser tipped to be off the board by the early 20s,the Lions would be hard-pressed to forgo the speedster with their second selection given their keen interest. Butler and Howes also remain in the mix for those selections. GWV Rebels best-and-fairest winner Molan, a smaller utility, could come into the frame later in the piece.

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List needs: Key defensive/forward depth, running defenders
Who could be available at first pick: Josh Sinn, Josh Goater, Sam Butler, Blake Howes, Jacob van Rooyen, Arlo Draper
Could be in the mix after that:Darcy Wilmot, Campbell Chesser, Charlie Molan, Blake Howes, Rhett Bazzo, Leek Alleer
Lions Academy prospects: Toby Triffett, Jack Briskey, Tahj Abberley, Saxon Crozier, Charlie Bowes
Brisbane has no glaring needs and is well-placed to snare a slider with a host of exciting prospects inside the 10-20 range. Line-breaking halfback/midfielder Sinn looms as one who could get to their first selection after an injury interrupted year, and would be a fantastic addition with Daniel Rich turning 32 next year. Running defenders Goater, Chesser, Wilmot, and interceptor Brown are others who will be around the mark for their early selections. The Lions could be exposed if key defenders Harris Andrews or Marcus Adams go down, which is why the high-leaping Alleer or WA swingman van Rooyen might appeal. Triffett, a big-bodied, 19-year-old inside midfielder, headlines Lions Academy group after impressing at VFL and in a national championships trial, but is viewed as a later draft chance. The Lions also have 2022 potential top-five selection Will Ashcroft, son of three-time premiership player Marcus, to look forward to next year. And they have already begun to stockpile points for next year, trading out pick 54 for a future third round selection.
November latest: With Chesser tipped to be off the board by the early 20s,the Lions would be hard-pressed to forgo the speedster with their second selection given their keen interest. Butler and Howes also remain in the mix for those selections. GWV Rebels best-and-fairest winner Molan, a smaller utility, could come into the frame later in the piece.

All of that makes a lot of sense. Molan the only name mentioned that I haven't seen us linked to or suggested for us prior.

 

[Pns_blister]

Are you sure Archie Perkins wasn’t in Twomey’s top 10?, because I thought he was top 10 most of the year.

Not sure about Twomey's rankings, but in his phantom draft he had him going to Pies at pick 16. The point i'm trying to illustrate is that there will be 2 or 3 picks that the "experts" like Twomey and co. always miss that feature in the first 15 picks. I've got zero doubt that some of the players people have attachment to on here (Sinn, Goater, Johnson, NWM etc.) will slip through to our first pick. Whether we take them or not is a different question.

 

[scoman]

Draft tragic Knightmare has dropped his latest rankings for ESPN and it's pretty different to say the least. Johnson at 7, Alleer at 9, Sheldrick at 11, Taylor at 12, Uwland at 18. No Goater, Sinn, Sonsie, Wilmont, Chesser, JVR inside the top 20.

AFL Draft Power Rankings: No. 1 player locked in, bolters make their moves

ESPN.com.au's expert Chris Doerre has revealed his AFL Draft Power Rankings for the month of November with South Australian prospect Jason Horne-Francis firming as North Melbourne's first ever No. 1 selection.

www.espn.com.au

I understand this is his power rankings rather than a phantom, but it does give hope that the tiers we keep hearing about aren't as set in stone as many thought.

 

[pulpdriver]

Draft tragic Knightmare has dropped his latest rankings for ESPN and it's pretty different to say the least. Johnson at 7, Alleer at 9, Sheldrick at 11, Taylor at 12, Uwland at 18. No Goater, Sinn, Sonsie, Wilmont, Chesser, JVR inside the top 20.

AFL Draft Power Rankings: No. 1 player locked in, bolters make their moves

ESPN.com.au's expert Chris Doerre has revealed his AFL Draft Power Rankings for the month of November with South Australian prospect Jason Horne-Francis firming as North Melbourne's first ever No. 1 selection.

www.espn.com.au

I understand this is his power rankings rather than a phantom, but it does give hope that the tiers we keep hearing about aren't as set in stone as many thought.

Knightmare does like to be different with his ratings and favours the reaching high potential picks; remember Waylen Manson? He was due to be the best thing since toasting sliced bread and was the next Buddy.
Looking at that list Alleer listed at 9 gives off those sort of vibes. Sheldrick another one that stands out as strange being that high. Projects to be a very good player imo but no way I'd pick hm over Sinn, Chesser, Sonsie or Goater for long term gain.

 

[T Rick]

Draft tragic Knightmare has dropped his latest rankings for ESPN and it's pretty different to say the least. Johnson at 7, Alleer at 9, Sheldrick at 11, Taylor at 12, Uwland at 18. No Goater, Sinn, Sonsie, Wilmont, Chesser, JVR inside the top 20.

AFL Draft Power Rankings: No. 1 player locked in, bolters make their moves

ESPN.com.au's expert Chris Doerre has revealed his AFL Draft Power Rankings for the month of November with South Australian prospect Jason Horne-Francis firming as North Melbourne's first ever No. 1 selection.

www.espn.com.au

I understand this is his power rankings rather than a phantom, but it does give hope that the tiers we keep hearing about aren't as set in stone as many thought.

What is the difference between power rankings and a phantom draft order?

 

[pulpdriver]

I want Campbell Chesser to be a Lion.
There's three blokes I'd I'd have as my ideal option for first pick and Chesser is locked into 4th. I do no want someone to take him before our second.
In a righteous world we'll end up with Sinn and Chesser.
Chesser and Wilmot still fine by me.

 

[pulpdriver]

What is the difference between power rankings and a phantom draft order?

Power ranking is personal opinion, phantom is where you expect them to land.

 

[Nuggo]

Wonder if will have a draft strategy of picking two players that get along to offset homesickness. May not be necessary now as our culture as appears to have been overhauled.

 

[JasRulz63]

I want Campbell Chesser to be a Lion.
There's three blokes I'd I'd have as my ideal option for first pick and Chesser is locked into 4th. I do no want someone to take him before our second.
In a righteous world we'll end up with Sinn and Chesser.
Chesser and Wilmot still fine by me.

Despite playing for Vic Metro (because he boarded at Melbourne Grammar), Campbell Chesser is from Albury, NSW, so might not have the same go home draw that the usual Vic Metro players have.

 

[POBT]

Sometimes I think Knightmare has rankings which are based on a shock factor or sheer obstinacy. I think there's a little bit of shock factor about his selections but I think there's a logic there:

- I have felt for a while that Alleer is the guy most likely to be taken early. It seems like almost every club's supporter base is talking about taking him in the second round. If that's replicated in clubland, a club will pick him earlier than expected. I remember that's what happened with Harry Taylor who was similarly a little older and had some remarkable testing results. IMO, Alleer's the most likely first pick in the second round as teams bid for that selection but could go higher again.

- Zac Taylor looks to me like a guy who can just be relied upon. If you're looking for a creative mid type, he might be a safer bet than a few others more commonly thought of in the 12-20 range.

- Almost every year, there's a late "momentum" player in the draft who emerges from the pack in the last couple of weeks . That player often goes really early when it comes to draft night. Sheldrick might be that guy this year.

 

[dlanod]

Despite playing for Vic Metro (because he boarded at Melbourne Grammar), Campbell Chesser is from Albury, NSW, so might not have the same go home draw that the usual Vic Metro players have.

GWS have lost a couple of guys that claimed "go home factor" was a part of their reason in moving to get to Melbourne when they were from the Riverina. IIRC both Zac Williams and Will Setterfield both said it was nicer to be closer to home - neither made it a big part of their pitch to leave GWS, but rather made similar comments on arriving in Melbourne.

 

[pulpdriver]

Despite playing for Vic Metro (because he boarded at Melbourne Grammar), Campbell Chesser is from Albury, NSW, so might not have the same go home draw that the usual Vic Metro players have.

I'm not sure how much of a thing go home factor will be for us. We had already built a wonderful culture that players seemingly loved to join. Victoria also hasn't been a pleasant place to live for the last two years. I reckon even a tight family pull wouldn't have a significant draw atm. Plus his mate Ashcroft will be there soon if that's really an issue.

 

[briztoon]

Knightmare bases his rankings very much on Champion Data’s stats, especially for players he hasn’t seen a lot of.

He got caught out last year talking up some of the WA players, when he actually hadn’t seen them play, because he refused to pay a subscription fee to watch junior footy.

While I believe Knightmare does make some valid points when discussing certain players, he’s very much down the list of draft watchers I pay attention to.