Analysis 2021 draft thread

[spotthedog1]

Yep a lot of mind games and BS out there. Wouldn't be surprised if we weren't that keen on Wilmot. Unless someone is leaking out info unofficially

Wilmot really does sound like a Brisbane pick though.

At 16, I'll be meh about it, but fine. Mostly just because I'm hoping we get a slider at 16.
At 20, I'll be satisfied with Wilmot.
At trade-up-to-get-him, I'd be cranky for a few days.

 

[BuntonRules]

Just don’t understand how a guy who would likely end up playing back pocket would be drafted in the first round.

You would knock back Chris Johnson?

 

[jjami15]

You would knock back Chris Johnson?

You know and I know that back pocket wasn’t his original position. Comparing Wilmot to Johnson is a stretch also but if he turns out like him and we draft him I’ll be a very happy man.

 

[jfn]

There doesn't seem to be much talk about Brisbane's 3rd draft pick, so would there be any chance of a swap with Freo.
14, 18 and 41 for 8, 19 and 68. This equate to the same number of points.
Huge advantage if Brisbane is willing to sacrifice pick 41 and hope for a late draft gem.
Also, 19 would allow for a first pick on night 2, same as the year we got Dev Robertson.

 

[Dalions]

Wilmot appears to be a tough competitor and with a bit of Mongrel.
Could always do with another one of them. I also think that he is a very Lions type pick.

 

[ManeMan]

There doesn't seem to be much talk about Brisbane's 3rd draft pick, so would there be any chance of a swap with Freo.
14, 18 and 41 for 8, 19 and 68. This equate to the same number of points.
Huge advantage if Brisbane is willing to sacrifice pick 41 and hope for a late draft gem.
Also, 19 would allow for a first pick on night 2, same as the year we got Dev Robertson.

No club would do that trade with us...

 

[blueiris]

You would knock back Chris Johnson?

Johnson was one of the best small defenders I’ve seen play the game he was an amazing kick anywhere on the field

 

[jfn]

No club would do that trade with us...

Why not? Freo would get 3 first round picks.

 

[JasRulz63]

Why not? Freo would get 3 first round picks.

Because an upgrade from 14 to 8 is worth a lot more then 68 to 41 (18 for 19 is much of a muchness, with 19 probably worth more because of the first pick of day 2 implications).

 

[BangyBangy]

Yep a lot of mind games and BS out there. Wouldn't be surprised if we weren't that keen on Wilmot. Unless someone is leaking out info unofficially

Yep, I'd be lying my arse off if Twomey asked me who we were looking at.

No way am I giving out actual mail, especially this year.

I'd be more dishonest and untrustworthy than Tim Paine.

 

[Clarkythelion]

Our 1st round selections from 2000 onwards >

2000- Ashley McGrath (13).
2001- Jason Gram (19).
2002- Jarred Brennan (3).
2003- Llane Spannderman (18).
2004- Cameron Wood (18).
2005- Mitch Clark (9).
2006- Matthew Leuenberger (4).
2007- Lachlan Henderson (8).
2008- Daniel Rich (7).
2009- No selections.
2010- Jared Polec (5), Patrick Karnezis (25).
2011- Billy Longer (8), Sam Docherty (12).
2012- Sam Mayes (8), Marco Paparone (23).
2013- James Aish (7).
2014- No selections.
2015- Josh Schache (2), Eric Hipwood (14)
2016- Hugh McCluggage (3), Jarrod Berry (17).
2017- Cameron Rayner (1), Zac Bailey (15), Brandon Starcevich (18).
2018- Ely Smith (21).
2019- No Selections.
2020- Blake Coleman (24).
______________________________________
Pretty grim reading overall but 2016-17 stand out like dog testicles as great to really good drafts, apart from that not too much to get excited about other than 2000 Ash, 2008 Richy and Hippy in 2015..... Brennan 2002 and Luey 2006 are passes but didn't quite live up to the hype.

Thanks for the research. Without causing a great debate, I'd say Rich, McGrath, McLuggage, Luenberger (Lions & Dons) Henderson (Blues & Cats) were good picks, thats just 23% success rate. Rayner is still to 'break out', Brennan - maybe added. If you add in all picks in the first round with Bailey, Starcevich, Berry, Hipwood it gets a little better but marginally.

 

[Berrygood]

Wilmot appears to be a tough competitor and with a bit of Mongrel.
Could always do with another one of them. I also think that he is a very Lions type pick.

I'll take a tough competitor with a bit of mongrel anytime, especially in defense. He obviously has some talent and if he has a good work ethic on and off the field, I'd be happy to take him. Being younger it may take a cpl of years to break out but I'm OK with that too.

I'd be happy with Butler also. He reads as having midfield potential as well as being a sm fwd.

If we could round it out with Jack Williams, (I know I know not likely to be there but I can hope), I'd be wrapped with our draft haul.

Just as likely it's none of the above. Whoever we do take I don't see them cracking best 22 in their first season, like devrob or sharpie did. I think we're looking a cpl of years ahead at least with this draft. Happy to be proven wrong though.

 

[mattsmob]

I'll take a tough competitor with a bit of mongrel anytime, especially in defense. He obviously has some talent and if he has a good work ethic on and off the field, I'd be happy to take him. Being younger it may take a cpl of years to break out but I'm OK with that too.

I'd be happy with Butler also. He reads as having midfield potential as well as being a sm fwd.

If we could round it out with Jack Williams, (I know I know not likely to be there but I can hope), I'd be wrapped with our draft haul.

Just as likely it's none of the above. Whoever we do take I don't see them cracking best 22 in their first season, like devrob or sharpie did. I think we're looking a cpl of years ahead at least with this draft. Happy to be proven wrong though.

I think the best chance for a draftee to crack the 22 consistently would have to be off half-back replacing Birchall, definitely would be tough though. Other than that I could see Butler getting a few games for us up forward as a goal sneak/pressure forward but even there we've got good depth.

 

[JasRulz63]

Phantom Draft late mail: Spotlight on TWO clubs, Vic mid intrigue

Draft guru Cal Twomey reveals the last minute draft whispers

www.afl.com.au

Nothing to add from our POV.

 

[JasRulz63]

Phantom AFL draft first round: where the best prospects could land

This year’s draft shapes as arguably the most intriguing since its inception in the 1980s. Here are our predictions.

www.theage.com.au

Another phantom with us taking Wilmot and JVR.

Has Sinn taken at 11, Chesser a bit of a bolter at 12. Johnson at 17 and Goater at 18 are interesting. Wouldn't mind Johnson as a taller mid.

 

[jackess]

Phantom AFL draft first round: where the best prospects could land

This year’s draft shapes as arguably the most intriguing since its inception in the 1980s. Here are our predictions.

www.theage.com.au

Another phantom with us taking Wilmot and JVR.

Has Sinn taken at 11, Chesser a bit of a bolter at 12. Johnson at 17 and Goater at 18 are interesting. Wouldn't mind Johnson as a taller mid.

Most mocks have Richmond either taking Gibcus at 9 or JvR with 17. Pick 9 could dictate if we take JvR at 16 or wait until 20

 

[jackess]

Phantom AFL draft first round: where the best prospects could land

This year’s draft shapes as arguably the most intriguing since its inception in the 1980s. Here are our predictions.

www.theage.com.au

Another phantom with us taking Wilmot and JVR.

Has Sinn taken at 11, Chesser a bit of a bolter at 12. Johnson at 17 and Goater at 18 are interesting. Wouldn't mind Johnson as a taller mid.

This does a good job of selling JvR as a worthy first round pick

 

[Surly Boy]

 

[Grasshopper17]

Apologies if this has been mentioned earlier (81 pages is a LOT to scroll through)... but I simply cannot fathom why if you had the early picks you wouldn't just pick Daicos and Darcy, and bend the Dogs and Collingwood over as best you can. I get why North might take Horne-Francis at #1 so the young man gets the $10k, but surely if you're the Giants, this is a great chance to force not 1 club but 2 to burn as many draft picks as possible.

I am by no means a draft nuffy so maybe someone who is more knowledgeable can explain this one to me?

 

[JasRulz63]

Most mocks have Richmond either taking Gibcus at 9 or JvR with 17. Pick 9 could dictate if we take JvR at 16 or wait until 20

What Freo think Richmond do at 9 also affects what they do at pick 8. You can see why teams are holding cards close to their chests.

 

[bungalow_bill]

This does a good job of selling JvR as a worthy first round pick

Indeed the ready made weight peaked my interest, 91 KG same as Hip but 9 CM shorter

 

[Pns_blister]

Apologies if this has been mentioned earlier (81 pages is a LOT to scroll through)... but I simply cannot fathom why if you had the early picks you wouldn't just pick Daicos and Darcy, and bend the Dogs and Collingwood over as best you can. I get why North might take Horne-Francis at #1 so the young man gets the $10k, but surely if you're the Giants, this is a great chance to force not 1 club but 2 to burn as many draft picks as possible.

I am by no means a draft nuffy so maybe someone who is more knowledgeable can explain this one to me?

Yeah Giants not bidding on Daicos is a real head scratcher. Particularly because Pies hold picks 36, 38, 40, 46, 48 which will get chewed up to match the bid, thus moving GWS' picks 53, 54, 70 up the board and making them more valuable for matching a bid on their academy player Fahey. More points they wipe from the Pies the better their draft position.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

What's the difference between GWS bidding and not bidding in terms of what Collingwood or the Bulldogs later picks would be? I can't imagine by the time it gets to the back end of the draft that there would be much of a difference. Why bother risking drafting a player who doesn't want to be there?

 

[Cubs2Lions]

 

[blueiris]

We’re the only team that’s locked into our picks according to Twomey with a few changes from last night