Analysis 2021 draft thread

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If we win the whole shebang next year, our current picks/points would be worth:
Pick 18: 985
Pick 35: 522
Pick 54: 220
Pick 72: 19

We need 2400 points to match a bid at pick 1.
We can split round 1 pick into more points, see what the Bulldogs did this year. Maybe even round 2 pick too.

The best picks for points matching are those in the 40s and 50s, as they give you reasonable number of points, but teams are happy to trade them to you for a higher pick.
 
We can split round 1 pick into more points, see what the Bulldogs did this year. Maybe even round 2 pick too.

The best picks for points matching are those in the 40s and 50s, as they give you reasonable number of points, but teams are happy to trade them to you for a higher pick.
I’m well aware of all that. Though I’d rather a couple of picks in the 30’s if we’re going to need 5 picks at next year’s draft.
 

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We can split round 1 pick into more points, see what the Bulldogs did this year. Maybe even round 2 pick too.

The best picks for points matching are those in the 40s and 50s, as they give you reasonable number of points, but teams are happy to trade them to you for a higher pick.

Think the Bulldogs ended up 500 points better off from trading away pick 17, which then became more when they traded 23 down during the draft.

Is it me, or it doesn't seem like the list spots for every pick applies to trades during the draft.
 

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Any talls on the horizon in our academy? We had such a good run for a while there, seems to have dried up?
Was mentioned in this post from the previous page.


These are the names listed as 2022 draft prospects in the program that was handed out at the draft function.

Will Ashcroft- 183cm, 80kg, Hybrid Mid.
Jaspa Fletcher- 180cm, 74kg, Hybrid Mid.
Riley McMillan- 181cm, 70kg, Hybird Mid.
Bailey Tome- 184cm, 80kg, Inside Mid.
Liam McNeill- 201cm, 90kg, Ruck.
Matthew Hollier- 185cm, 73kg, Outside Mid.
Unfortunately the club puts out sfa information about the academy, so unless you’re involved as a parent or sibling of an academy member, it’s next to impossible to know who is coming through.

There was another discussion about the QLD academies on the QAFL board today. Let’s just say there’s a lot of criticism of the academy from the QAFL clubs.
 
With Ashcroft likely to be a top 3-5 pick, geelong is probably in the hot seat to do a trade to give you the points required as we have 3x3rd round, 2x 4th and our second rounder still if needed. Gold Coast will need their picks for academy products again.

Is there some way we can include Marcus Ashcroft in the deal? He's almost old enough for Geelong to draft him.
 
Good point. I think Eckersley is in the next draft and he's rated fairly highly.

keen to see how it plays out as geelong is the likely club that will come to the table to give Brisbane the points for Ashcroft at this point. Geelong and Brisbane have a good relationship as well with trading and it’s generally pretty direct and over and done quickly without fuss
 
Was mentioned in this post from the previous page.



Unfortunately the club puts out sfa information about the academy, so unless you’re involved as a parent or sibling of an academy member, it’s next to impossible to know who is coming through.

There was another discussion about the QLD academies on the QAFL board today. Let’s just say there’s a lot of criticism of the academy from the QAFL clubs.

Yeah lets hope all six can find a club for next year. Its a shame no talls apart from the ruck there are on the horizon. That's been our bread and butter from the academy and Queensland in general for a long time.
 
Yeah lets hope all six can find a club for next year. Its a shame no talls apart from the ruck there are on the horizon. That's been our bread and butter from the academy and Queensland in general for a long time.
I know Quigley mentioned there were two talls to watch from our academy, based off the U17 academy games v Gold Coast.

There was also an article posted by AFL Queensland at the beginning of the year about the academy prospects for next year.


There might be more kids in lower age groups coming through, but we would hardly know, with the lack of vision and updates from the club.
 
A couple of small observations from this year’s draft, the mid season draft, and last year’s draft.

First this year, quite a few teams prioritised outside speed and good ball use with their early picks, ahead of more highly touted or spoken about midfielders.

There might be a bit of a shift in the style of play over the next few years as these kids mature and current players retire.

Secondly and this is an observation from the past two years, quite a few teams have drafted a ruck and a ruck forward in the last two years. Again, we might see in 5 or 6 years, more teams playing with 3 KPP’s in the forward 50.
 
I know Quigley mentioned there were two talls to watch from our academy, based off the U17 academy games v Gold Coast.

There was also an article posted by AFL Queensland at the beginning of the year about the academy prospects for next year.


There might be more kids in lower age groups coming through, but we would hardly know, with the lack of vision and updates from the club.

Surprised McMillan wasn't mentioned.
 
Lots of words here which I've enjoyed very much, but at heart I'm a numbers man. After the dust has settled on the drafts it looks like we have the 9th oldest list going into season 2022, with an average age of 24.5. It's interesting to look at how these figures have changed over time:

1638021632914.png

Couple of key take outs (for me anyway):
  • This will be the oldest list we have ever had as a club (including the Bears era).
  • However, there will still be 8 clubs who have older lists than ours. This speaks volumes for the gradual lengthening of player careers over the last 30 years or so, training standards and professionalism have increased, as well as medical advancements and changes to rules regarding player safety I guess.
  • When the Bears first rose to prominence in 1995-6, it happened with a list that was, essentially, and in hindsight, in a rebuilding phase, noting the falling line from 1995 to 1998. The wooden spoon was achieved with the 3rd youngest list in the comp, which, again, with the benefit of hindsight, laid the platform for what was to come.
  • Even in 2001, and allowing for the recruitment of guys like Martin Pike and Mal Michael, we won that flag with the 3rd youngest list in the comp.
  • After that, and not surprisingly, we held onto most of our players, and topped up with a guy like Caracella, so by 2004 we had the 3rd oldest list. It happens pretty quickly!
  • A few retirements, plus Aker's departure, probably forced the club's hand, but even so we had regenerated the list, at least from an age perspective, to build again by 2009.
  • Unfortunately we probably went too hard at the trade table too soon, jumping from the 3rd youngest list in 2009 to the 5th oldest list in 2011. This meant we spent the next half decade sliding back into rebuilding mode.
  • We bottomed out in 2016 and remained the youngest list in 2017, and the build since has arguably been the most measured and organised in the club's history. For the 1st time since 2011 we now find our list in the top half, age-wise, in the comp, and my take on this is that the iron is hot - time to strike. Very interested to know what everyone else reckons?

Some notes:
  • The years 1993-6 are for the Bears. Apologies to ex-Fitzroy fans, the chart gets a bit busy with extra lines at the start and I wanted to plot the premiership era as accurately as possible for comparison purposes.
  • The average age is reported by Draft Guru in the reverse order, which I prefer, but I wanted the lines above to appear somewhat correlated. Example: Draft Guru currently has Geelong as "1st" for the "oldest list", whereas if we were plotting their chart as per above, they would appear as "18th".
 

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