Analysis 2021 draft thread

[Section 5]

Early days regarding Ashcroft
As long as his form holds up and is considered a top 10 pick this time next year that would be great

 

[Johnny Bananas]

If they're expecting another top 3 pick next year they should just fold. There absolutely has to be improvement. That list should be ready to nudge or come close to the top 8.

Clubs can trade up, and Hollands may not go top 3.

 

[briztoon]

Clubs can trade up, and Hollands may not go top 3.

He’s not really rated top 3 atm.

 

[BangyBangy]

I heard he's a Covid-denier who kicks puppies in his spare time

That's my mail as well. And his best mates are Tim Paine, Jordan DeGoey & Pete Evans.

 

[briztoon]

2021 AFL Draft review: Brisbane

Brisbane had a couple of first round picks and added the need for speed, as well as a tough West Australian at the 2021 AFL Draft.

central.rookieme.com

 

[scoman]

Any talls on the horizon in our academy? We had such a good run for a while there, seems to have dried up?

 

[briztoon]

Any talls on the horizon in our academy? We had such a good run for a while there, seems to have dried up?

Was mentioned in this post from the previous page.

These are the names listed as 2022 draft prospects in the program that was handed out at the draft function.

Will Ashcroft- 183cm, 80kg, Hybrid Mid.
Jaspa Fletcher- 180cm, 74kg, Hybrid Mid.
Riley McMillan- 181cm, 70kg, Hybird Mid.
Bailey Tome- 184cm, 80kg, Inside Mid.
Liam McNeill- 201cm, 90kg, Ruck.
Matthew Hollier- 185cm, 73kg, Outside Mid.

Unfortunately the club puts out sfa information about the academy, so unless you’re involved as a parent or sibling of an academy member, it’s next to impossible to know who is coming through.

There was another discussion about the QLD academies on the QAFL board today. Let’s just say there’s a lot of criticism of the academy from the QAFL clubs.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

With Ashcroft likely to be a top 3-5 pick, geelong is probably in the hot seat to do a trade to give you the points required as we have 3x3rd round, 2x 4th and our second rounder still if needed. Gold Coast will need their picks for academy products again.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Gold Coast will need their picks for academy products again.

Good point. I think Eckersley is in the next draft and he's rated fairly highly.

 

[BangyBangy]

With Ashcroft likely to be a top 3-5 pick, geelong is probably in the hot seat to do a trade to give you the points required as we have 3x3rd round, 2x 4th and our second rounder still if needed. Gold Coast will need their picks for academy products again.

Is there some way we can include Marcus Ashcroft in the deal? He's almost old enough for Geelong to draft him.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Good point. I think Eckersley is in the next draft and he's rated fairly highly.

keen to see how it plays out as geelong is the likely club that will come to the table to give Brisbane the points for Ashcroft at this point. Geelong and Brisbane have a good relationship as well with trading and it’s generally pretty direct and over and done quickly without fuss

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Is there some way we can include Marcus Ashcroft in the deal? He's almost old enough for Geelong to draft him.

nah you got it all wrong mate.. we need key defending depth, mal michaels should do it.

 

[BangyBangy]

nah you got it all wrong mate.. we need key defending depth, mal michaels should do it.

Well you ain't getting Chris Johnson, I'm still hopeful for a lazarus return for him to the Lions. Still my favourite player.

 

[scoman]

Was mentioned in this post from the previous page.



Unfortunately the club puts out sfa information about the academy, so unless you’re involved as a parent or sibling of an academy member, it’s next to impossible to know who is coming through.

There was another discussion about the QLD academies on the QAFL board today. Let’s just say there’s a lot of criticism of the academy from the QAFL clubs.

Yeah lets hope all six can find a club for next year. Its a shame no talls apart from the ruck there are on the horizon. That's been our bread and butter from the academy and Queensland in general for a long time.

 

[briztoon]

Yeah lets hope all six can find a club for next year. Its a shame no talls apart from the ruck there are on the horizon. That's been our bread and butter from the academy and Queensland in general for a long time.

I know Quigley mentioned there were two talls to watch from our academy, based off the U17 academy games v Gold Coast.

There was also an article posted by AFL Queensland at the beginning of the year about the academy prospects for next year.

Who’s who coming through the Queensland ranks | AFL Queensland

www.aflq.com.au

There might be more kids in lower age groups coming through, but we would hardly know, with the lack of vision and updates from the club.

 

[briztoon]

A couple of small observations from this year’s draft, the mid season draft, and last year’s draft.

First this year, quite a few teams prioritised outside speed and good ball use with their early picks, ahead of more highly touted or spoken about midfielders.

There might be a bit of a shift in the style of play over the next few years as these kids mature and current players retire.

Secondly and this is an observation from the past two years, quite a few teams have drafted a ruck and a ruck forward in the last two years. Again, we might see in 5 or 6 years, more teams playing with 3 KPP’s in the forward 50.

 

[Nunez]

I know Quigley mentioned there were two talls to watch from our academy, based off the U17 academy games v Gold Coast.

There was also an article posted by AFL Queensland at the beginning of the year about the academy prospects for next year.

Who’s who coming through the Queensland ranks | AFL Queensland

www.aflq.com.au

There might be more kids in lower age groups coming through, but we would hardly know, with the lack of vision and updates from the club.

Surprised McMillan wasn't mentioned.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Lots of words here which I've enjoyed very much, but at heart I'm a numbers man. After the dust has settled on the drafts it looks like we have the 9th oldest list going into season 2022, with an average age of 24.5. It's interesting to look at how these figures have changed over time:



Couple of key take outs (for me anyway):

• This will be the oldest list we have ever had as a club (including the Bears era).
• However, there will still be 8 clubs who have older lists than ours. This speaks volumes for the gradual lengthening of player careers over the last 30 years or so, training standards and professionalism have increased, as well as medical advancements and changes to rules regarding player safety I guess.
• When the Bears first rose to prominence in 1995-6, it happened with a list that was, essentially, and in hindsight, in a rebuilding phase, noting the falling line from 1995 to 1998. The wooden spoon was achieved with the 3rd youngest list in the comp, which, again, with the benefit of hindsight, laid the platform for what was to come.
• Even in 2001, and allowing for the recruitment of guys like [PLAYERCARD]Martin Pike[/PLAYERCARD] and [PLAYERCARD]Mal Michael[/PLAYERCARD], we won that flag with the 3rd youngest list in the comp.
• After that, and not surprisingly, we held onto most of our players, and topped up with a guy like Caracella, so by 2004 we had the 3rd oldest list. It happens pretty quickly!
• A few retirements, plus Aker's departure, probably forced the club's hand, but even so we had regenerated the list, at least from an age perspective, to build again by 2009.
• Unfortunately we probably went too hard at the trade table too soon, jumping from the 3rd youngest list in 2009 to the 5th oldest list in 2011. This meant we spent the next half decade sliding back into rebuilding mode.
• We bottomed out in 2016 and remained the youngest list in 2017, and the build since has arguably been the most measured and organised in the club's history. For the 1st time since 2011 we now find our list in the top half, age-wise, in the comp, and my take on this is that the iron is hot - time to strike. Very interested to know what everyone else reckons?

Some notes:

• The years 1993-6 are for the Bears. Apologies to ex-Fitzroy fans, the chart gets a bit busy with extra lines at the start and I wanted to plot the premiership era as accurately as possible for comparison purposes.
• The average age is reported by Draft Guru in the reverse order, which I prefer, but I wanted the lines above to appear somewhat correlated. Example: Draft Guru currently has Geelong as "1st" for the "oldest list", whereas if we were plotting their chart as per above, they would appear as "18th".

 

[JasRulz63]

With Ashcroft likely to be a top 3-5 pick, geelong is probably in the hot seat to do a trade to give you the points required as we have 3x3rd round, 2x 4th and our second rounder still if needed. Gold Coast will need their picks for academy products again.

Are a combination of 3-4 of those picks worth 500 points more than a (hopefully) late first round pick? That's the going rate these days it seems.

 

[Nunez]

Lots of words here which I've enjoyed very much, but at heart I'm a numbers man. After the dust has settled on the drafts it looks like we have the 9th oldest list going into season 2022, with an average age of 24.5. It's interesting to look at how these figures have changed over time:

View attachment 1288595

Couple of key take outs (for me anyway):

• This will be the oldest list we have ever had as a club (including the Bears era).
• However, there will still be 8 clubs who have older lists than ours. This speaks volumes for the gradual lengthening of player careers over the last 30 years or so, training standards and professionalism have increased, as well as medical advancements and changes to rules regarding player safety I guess.
• When the Bears first rose to prominence in 1995-6, it happened with a list that was, essentially, and in hindsight, in a rebuilding phase, noting the falling line from 1995 to 1998. The wooden spoon was achieved with the 3rd youngest list in the comp, which, again, with the benefit of hindsight, laid the platform for what was to come.
• Even in 2001, and allowing for the recruitment of guys like Martin Pike and Mal Michael, we won that flag with the 3rd youngest list in the comp.
• After that, and not surprisingly, we held onto most of our players, and topped up with a guy like Caracella, so by 2004 we had the 3rd oldest list. It happens pretty quickly!
• A few retirements, plus Aker's departure, probably forced the club's hand, but even so we had regenerated the list, at least from an age perspective, to build again by 2009.
• Unfortunately we probably went too hard at the trade table too soon, jumping from the 3rd youngest list in 2009 to the 5th oldest list in 2011. This meant we spent the next half decade sliding back into rebuilding mode.
• We bottomed out in 2016 and remained the youngest list in 2017, and the build since has arguably been the most measured and organised in the club's history. For the 1st time since 2011 we now find our list in the top half, age-wise, in the comp, and my take on this is that the iron is hot - time to strike. Very interested to know what everyone else reckons?

Some notes:

• The years 1993-6 are for the Bears. Apologies to ex-Fitzroy fans, the chart gets a bit busy with extra lines at the start and I wanted to plot the premiership era as accurately as possible for comparison purposes.
• The average age is reported by Draft Guru in the reverse order, which I prefer, but I wanted the lines above to appear somewhat correlated. Example: Draft Guru currently has Geelong as "1st" for the "oldest list", whereas if we were plotting their chart as per above, they would appear as "18th".

Quality post mate. Very interesting read.

 

[briztoon]

Surprised McMillan wasn't mentioned.

Just to clarify, not mentioned by who?

 

[scoman]

Was mentioned in this post from the previous page.



Unfortunately the club puts out sfa information about the academy, so unless you’re involved as a parent or sibling of an academy member, it’s next to impossible to know who is coming through.

There was another discussion about the QLD academies on the QAFL board today. Let’s just say there’s a lot of criticism of the academy from the QAFL clubs.

Yeah I had noticed that, I wonder if basketball is having an effect on talls. If you think back Queensland has produced quite a few from about 2013 - 2018

Just to us:

Jono Freeman
Harris Andrews
Eric Hipwood
Matthem Hammelmann
Conor Ballenden
Jackson Payne
Tom Fullerton

Gold Coast has also taken its fair share including one or two last year I think. We have also seen a few taken by other clubs as well. Go back further and we have always had one or two on our list as well as quite a few at other clubs.

But in the last couple of years the cupboard has been quite bare with very little on the horizon. I wonder if the rise in Basketball is taking its toll. I have a theory that Queensland traditionally produces a disproportionately high number of talls due to their body type not being suitable for league, union or soccer. Basketball has always been the logical competitor to AFL for lads on track to grow over 190cm. Does anybody know if we are losing some of these kids that might have played a bit of both and are now choosing basketball in their mid teens?

 

[Nunez]

Just to clarify, not mentioned by who?

In the article you shared.

 

[POBT]

Yeah I had noticed that, I wonder if basketball is having an effect on talls. If you think back Queensland has produced quite a few from about 2013 - 2018

Just to us:

Jono Freeman
Harris Andrews
Eric Hipwood
Matthem Hammelmann
Conor Ballenden
Jackson Payne
Tom Fullerton

Gold Coast has also taken its fair share including one or two last year I think. We have also seen a few taken by other clubs as well. Go back further and we have always had one or two on our list as well as quite a few at other clubs.

But in the last couple of years the cupboard has been quite bare with very little on the horizon. I wonder if the rise in Basketball is taking its toll. I have a theory that Queensland traditionally produces a disproportionately high number of talls due to their body type not being suitable for league, union or soccer. Basketball has always been the logical competitor to AFL for lads on track to grow over 190cm. Does anybody know if we are losing some of these kids that might have played a bit of both and are now choosing basketball in their mid teens?

I think the old AFLQ talent pathways used to actively look for tall kids playing other sports and try and attract them across to our games. I think that height used to also get you into the elite programs a lot easier than if you were 6 foot.

Qld had a period about 20 years ago where there was a constant pipeline of 200cm-ish types getting drafted. Some grew up playing footy and others picked the game up in their mid-teens. The emphasis on tall players was because it was thought they could make the transition to senior footy more easily than a smaller player - or, at least, you could get away with being less "talented" compared to your peers from traditional footy states.

I think now the talent search is more holistic which is a good thing. It feels like we're in a bit of a lull draft wise from a Qld perspective, albeit the fact that the Gold Coast can pre-list their local talent does distort things slightly.

You'd have to think the constant upsurge in junior participation numbers will flow through to elite talent. If it doesn't, the pathways will need close review.

 

[briztoon]

In the article you shared.

The article is from early in the year, before the academy series against GC, so before McMillan was on anyone’s radar.