Analysis 2021 draft thread

[The Flying Belgian]

The academy kids are often overrated by KM but don't think it applies to our father/sons. Ashcroft is universally rated a top 3 prospect

Yes he is one of the worst offenders, but it's not just him. As for father-sons, I can only hark back to the heady days of Lachie Harris.

 

[briztoon]

That's why I said "generally". The buzz on Ashcroft reminds me of what we used to hear about Sam Walsh. I doubt he'd slip that much if any. But I've lost count of the amount of Qld kids who were pumped up the year before only to drop down the mock drafts/power rankings.

Thankfully Twomey looks mostly interested in pumping up the GC academy kids.

Yes he is one of the worst offenders, but it's not just him. As for father-sons, I can only hark back to the heady days of Lachie Harris.

KM wouldn’t have a clue about underage northern academy kids since they did away with the National Academy.

Just doesn’t follow underage football enough to know the kids. I tend to find, the less a northern academy kid is spoken about, the less they are rated. Start talking about one, and he’ll soon enough appear in certain posters rankings.

 

[twhowler]

Ben McKay is also a very tall defender.


I think the best backlines have a mix of traits to cover different types of forwards while also being able to take a lot of intercept marks. But if I had to have three of any one tall defender in the AFL in my backline, Harris would be my first or second choice. He can cover and intercept well.


What you said was, giants cannot play defence well. I've given you two examples of giants who do play defence well. Mark Blicavs is another.


Sure. But none of that suggests giants cannot play in defence. Some of them are very mobile and agile.


He's certainly rested in the backline before. Some players' strengths ar e in zoning off and intercept marking, rather than trying to take a key forward out of the game by covering them at all times. That's certainly a role some giants can play.

As a generalisation giants cannot play defence well. I don’t think that’s a radical statement. Yes there are exceptions.

Most relevant of all, out of the list of lions players i initially listed, how many of them do you think would make good key defenders?

 

[dlanod]

Yes he is one of the worst offenders, but it's not just him. As for father-sons, I can only hark back to the heady days of Lachie Harris.

Yep. And Roos and Clayton.

Because pundits know the names and the links, they get overpromoted to a similar degree.

 

[Quigley]

Quigley would be keen to hear your thoughts.

On a comparison?

It is a bit hard because I do not recall seeing him play on the inside which he did early in the year. When I have seen him he has been always very outside. His skills are close to elite level and he moves nicely around the ground and through traffic. He is very disciplined keeping his width and with his positioning but I am not sure he has the feel for where to run just yet in that role. As a consequence he has not gotten as many disposals as I would have liked to see him get. Hurt factor is very high when he gets it though.

As for a comparison in the last few drafts perhaps Will Day would be what I am hoping to see next year. He is not getting enough of the ball to justify that comparison at the moment but when he gets it he his game is pretty similar.

 

[twhowler]

Darcy Moore.
Jordan Roughead.
Dougal Howard.
Rory Thompson.
Lachie Keeffe.
Alex Pearce.

Some fair talent (and some adequate) in that list of 200cm+ defenders.

Alex Pearce listed at 197cm on wikipedia
Dougal Howard listed at 199cm on wikipedia.

Darcy is a gun. His mobility as a giant is what makes him that. It's very rare.
Jordan is decent.
Rory. Hmm okay i guess.

The list of gun key defenders between 190-199cm is a lot longer.

My specific point was how many of OUR tall players would not seem to be suited playing as key defenders.

so who do you think might make a good key defender out of Henry Smith / Tom Fullarton / Hipwood / McInerney / Daniher / Darcy Fort / Kalin Lane?

Daniher is a forward, no debate.

Hipwood played defence as a youngster but coming off a knee and hard to see a shift

Fullarton might be worth trying but seems to lack any sort of burst speed.

McInerney 204cm / Smith 206cm / Fort 204cm / Lane 205cm. They are all genuine giants who would be very out of place in the backline. Taking a mark in the back pocket does not equal a key defender. Swap one of them for a 195cm defender and I think we have a much better list balance.

 

[spotthedog1]

Anyone found any highlights of Lohmann yet?

Thought the club would've had some vision lying around, and would've got it out to us within 24 hours of the draft. Pretty weak effort really.

 

[dlanod]

Alex Pearce listed at 197cm on wikipedia
Dougal Howard listed at 199cm on wikipedia.

I got my stats from FootyWire, i.e. https://www.footywire.com/afl/club/player-biography/3954.html. Howard was a 1 cm round up because there was a clear gap between him and the 197 cm and smaller brigade.

The list of gun key defenders between 190-199cm is a lot longer.

No doubt. There's also

1. a lot more people who fit that description,
2. a lot more value seen in key forwards than key defenders for players above that height, and
3. a lot more value seen in key forwards than rucks for players above that height.

Defenders are basically the bottom rung for tall players these days, which is why you see players regularly giving up 5-10 cm on their opponent.

My specific point was how many of OUR tall players would not seem to be suited playing as key defenders.

I think in OUR case, they all pretty much fit into #2 or #3 above. If Andrews didn't end up as an AA-standard defender and we didn't already have Hipwood and McStay, he would've been moved around to see if he can play forward too. Hell, there were plenty of calls for exactly that this year.

Most of the guys I mentioned didn't start as a defender - look at Moore (forward), Roughead (ruck), Pearce (forward), Howard (forward) as initial Googles of what they were considered coming into the draft.

As such, we could easily see someone like Smith move down back if he doesn't put it together anywhere else. In most cases they didn't know they'd be any good until tried (and no doubt others just failed down back too, and washed out of the league).

 

[Dalions]

Anyone found any highlights of Lohmann yet?

Thought the club would've had some vision lying around, and would've got it out to us within 24 hours of the draft. Pretty weak effort really.

Weak effort from the AFL if they didn’t have anyone there to film the games that he played in.
Certainly not a weak effort from the club.

 

[briztoon]

Weak effort from the AFL if they didn’t have anyone there to film the games that he played in.
Certainly not a weak effort from the club.

Was going to mention the same.

I don’t know if every NAB league games was filmed last season, or just the match of the round. Lohmann missed the Country v Metro challenge games due to injury, so if he didn’t play in a filmed game, footage can’t exist.

I have heard multiple accounts now that his most impressive game was a school game, where scouts and draft watchers were impressed with his athleticism and work through the midfield, where he didn’t play at NAB league level.

 

[Footytradgic]

Alex Pearce listed at 197cm on wikipedia
Dougal Howard listed at 199cm on wikipedia.

Darcy is a gun. His mobility as a giant is what makes him that. It's very rare.
Jordan is decent.
Rory. Hmm okay i guess.

The list of gun key defenders between 190-199cm is a lot longer.

My specific point was how many of OUR tall players would not seem to be suited playing as key defenders.

so who do you think might make a good key defender out of Henry Smith / Tom Fullarton / Hipwood / McInerney / Daniher / Darcy Fort / Kalin Lane?

Daniher is a forward, no debate.

Hipwood played defence as a youngster but coming off a knee and hard to see a shift

Fullarton might be worth trying but seems to lack any sort of burst speed.

McInerney 204cm / Smith 206cm / Fort 204cm / Lane 205cm. They are all genuine giants who would be very out of place in the backline. Taking a mark in the back pocket does not equal a key defender. Swap one of them for a 195cm defender and I think we have a much better list balance.

Smith was a CHB for most of his junior time. Reads it well and uses the ball

I got my stats from FootyWire, i.e. https://www.footywire.com/afl/club/player-biography/3954.html. Howard was a 1 cm round up because there was a clear gap between him and the 197 cm and smaller brigade.



No doubt. There's also

1. a lot more people who fit that description,
2. a lot more value seen in key forwards than key defenders for players above that height, and
3. a lot more value seen in key forwards than rucks for players above that height.

Defenders are basically the bottom rung for tall players these days, which is why you see players regularly giving up 5-10 cm on their opponent.



I think in OUR case, they all pretty much fit into #2 or #3 above. If Andrews didn't end up as an AA-standard defender and we didn't already have Hipwood and McStay, he would've been moved around to see if he can play forward too. Hell, there were plenty of calls for exactly that this year.

Most of the guys I mentioned didn't start as a defender - look at Moore (forward), Roughead (ruck), Pearce (forward), Howard (forward) as initial Googles of what they were considered coming into the draft.

As such, we could easily see someone like Smith move down back if he doesn't put it together anywhere else. In most cases they didn't know they'd be any good until tried (and no doubt others just failed down back too, and washed out of the league).

Smith was a high quality CHB for most of his junior games

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

Weak effort from the AFL if they didn’t have anyone there to film the games that he played in.
Certainly not a weak effort from the club.

There was this thing called Covid that knocked us about a bit in Melbourne (still is).

Senior local games were held ‘crowdless’ etc. Junior games one parent/carer was allowed at a game.

I would be prepared to give the AFL some grace during this period and to be honest the functioning of the AFL etc was probably a significantly higher priority. I’m sure in time their thought will rightfully return to highlights for BF draft lovers.

 

[Nuggo]

Hopefully Lohmann will have an AFL highlight video sooner rather than later

 

[briztoon]

Smith was a CHB for most of his junior time. Reads it well and uses the ball

Smith was a high quality CHB for most of his junior games

I don’t know about the rest of his junior career, but in his draft year, he played most key forward and pinch hit through the ruck.

 

[PattyKwasagun]

There were some Lohmann highlights on the AFL website's coverage when he was announced, to memory. So they must have something.

 

[spotthedog1]

Weak effort from the AFL if they didn’t have anyone there to film the games that he played in.
Certainly not a weak effort from the club.

I'd have assumed that the club would have some vision sitting in a drawer before drafting him as a first rounder. I'll admit I'm not entirely knowledgeable about how recruiting departments work, but I'd have assumed recorded vision would play a role.

 

[dlanod]

I'd have assumed that the club would have some vision sitting in a drawer before drafting him as a first rounder. I'll admit I'm not entirely knowledgeable about how recruiting departments work, but I'd have assumed recorded vision would play a role.

The club has some footage, but it's not exactly highlights production quality.

 

[Crusha]

Difficult trying to find something on-line ...... but:
Found a highlight video of St Pats Ballarat covering their Grand final win in 2021.
Not a lot of football highlights, but I have cut those involving Kai (don't blink), as well as some non playing glimpses as well.
(Credit to the creator of the original - Kade Towk)

 

[Section 5]

There were some Lohmann highlights on the AFL website's coverage when he was announced, to memory. So they must have something.

Yes their were as i saw that also
But from memory we are talking 20 to 30 second at most.
But it was at least something

 

[Dalions]

Difficult trying to find something on-line ...... but:
Found a highlight video of St Pats Ballarat covering their Grand final win in 2021.
Not a lot of football highlights, but I have cut those involving Kai (don't blink), as well as some non playing glimpses as well.
(Credit to the creator of the original - Kade Towk)

Love the fend.

 

[twhowler]

I got my stats from FootyWire, i.e. https://www.footywire.com/afl/club/player-biography/3954.html. Howard was a 1 cm round up because there was a clear gap between him and the 197 cm and smaller brigade.



No doubt. There's also

1. a lot more people who fit that description,
2. a lot more value seen in key forwards than key defenders for players above that height, and
3. a lot more value seen in key forwards than rucks for players above that height.

Defenders are basically the bottom rung for tall players these days, which is why you see players regularly giving up 5-10 cm on their opponent.



I think in OUR case, they all pretty much fit into #2 or #3 above. If Andrews didn't end up as an AA-standard defender and we didn't already have Hipwood and McStay, he would've been moved around to see if he can play forward too. Hell, there were plenty of calls for exactly that this year.

Most of the guys I mentioned didn't start as a defender - look at Moore (forward), Roughead (ruck), Pearce (forward), Howard (forward) as initial Googles of what they were considered coming into the draft.

As such, we could easily see someone like Smith move down back if he doesn't put it together anywhere else. In most cases they didn't know they'd be any good until tried (and no doubt others just failed down back too, and washed out of the league).

I fundamentally disagree about why defenders are shorter. I think they need to have mobility and pace because they have to make sure they don’t give up uncontested possessions close to goal. They can’t have a weakness so they tend to be better all-rounders. Some giants manage this but not many.

Forwards can afford to have weaknesses as long as they have a killer strength like height (eg mason cox) or repeat efforts (riewoldt / brown).

I agree backs can end up being less skillful, basically failed forwards, because stopping is easier than creating.

i think the 7 talls i mentioned would struggle as backs as they are far from all rounders.

But that’s just my view on a footy forum. Hope i am wrong and Henry Smith is an impenetrable centre half back

 

[dlanod]

Hope i am wrong and Henry Smith is an impenetrable centre half back

Pessimist. I'm hoping for the next Paul Salmon.

 

[briztoon]

An early look at next year’s KPP stocks.

KPF RANKINGS
1 - Harry Lemmey 199cm
2 - Isaac Keeler 197cm
3 - Oliver Northam 195cm
4 - Matthew Jefferson 194cm
5 - Tom Scully 201cm
6 - Jasper Scaife 195cm
7 - Damon Pitt 195cm
8 - Luke Brown 199cm
9 - Billy King 199cm

KPD RANKINGS
1 - Jedd Busslinger 196cm
2 - Koby Cockshell 196cm
3 - Lewis Hayes 195cm
4 - Max Michaelanny 192cm
5 - Dayne Posthuma 197cm

 

[Quigley]

Anyone remember where we had Johnson on our board?

 

[mpal6]

Anyone remember where we had Johnson on our board?

I remember a post saying 21/22. Johnson and Goater back to back.