Analysis 2021 draft thread

[POBT]

Draft was a week ago? Not sure why people are still bringing it up? It's a one-way road at the moment. None of the posters who were critical at the time are still here being critical, yet others keep bringing up their names trying to shame them.

I think the emergence of new info which reinforces that the original hysteria was largely unwarranted is a decent reason to bring it back up. Maybe it will give people pause for thought before they lay the boot in next time?

As a general comment though, I concede that there are better ways to discuss without bringing individuals into it. S

 

[Dalions]

I think the emergence of new info which reinforces that the original hysteria was largely unwarranted is a decent reason to bring it back up. Maybe it will give people pause for thought before they lay the boot in next time?

As a general comment though, I concede that there are better ways to discuss without bringing individuals into it. S

Jury is still out on whether both he and Tunstill were worth their positions selected but I will back the club and their long term development of the players, especially if the VFL can get a couple of decent length seasons in.

 

[KissKiss]

Jury is still out on whether both he and Tunstill were worth their positions selected but I will back the club and their long term development of the players, especially if the VFL can get a couple of decent length seasons in.

That is so much the key. I do feel really sorry for those who havent been able to get much game time the last few years

 

[POBT]

Jury is still out on whether both he and Tunstill were worth their positions selected

Wilmot too. That's the case with every draft selection every year.

 

[Quigley]

Some people who watch a lot of the kids have strong opinions on them and often are very disappointed in the club for making what they consider a dumb decision. Sometimes they are right and sometimes they are wrong. I have been one who has expressed a lot of strong opinions on our drafting over the years. I have been absolutely livid with the club at times for reaching and not taking, what I thought were the obviously superior guys and sometimes I have been right and at other times wrong.

2008 was an interesting case study in this. That year Rich was taken first and had fallen after lighting it up the year before and coasting his draft year. He fell to 6 and I was exceptionally happy we just did the smart thing and took the most talented kid. At 25 we then reached for a relatively unknown in Jack Redden

8

Jack Redden

Age

33

Ht

190cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.6

5star

K

11.0

4star

HB

10.6

5star

M

4.7

4star

T

5.7

5star

CL

3.9

5star

D

15.0

4star

K

7.3

3star

HB

7.8

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.3

3star

CL

1.5

4star

D

15.4

4star

K

7.8

3star

HB

7.6

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

4.8

5star

and I was livid (after being initially okay with the pick when I thought it was Jarrad Redden

Jarrad Redden

Age

33

Ht

205cm

Wt

107kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.7

3star

K

3.6

1star

HB

7.1

4star

CL

2.4

4star

HO

18.1

5star

No current season stats available

D

12.4

4star

K

4.0

2star

HB

8.4

5star

CL

3.2

5star

HO

17.8

5star

, a promising ruck) given Mitch Robinson

5

Mitch Robinson

Age

34

Ht

184cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.9

5star

K

11.2

4star

HB

8.7

5star

M

4.1

4star

T

4.7

5star

CL

3.2

5star

D

15.8

4star

K

11.3

4star

HB

4.5

3star

M

3.9

4star

T

1.9

3star

CL

1.8

4star

D

13.2

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

5.2

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.6

5star

, a big favourite of mine, was still there as an obvious pick as well as Dayne Beams

11

Dayne Beams

Age

34

Ht

187cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

25.6

5star

K

13.2

5star

HB

12.4

5star

M

4.5

4star

T

3.6

5star

CL

4.9

5star

No current season stats available

D

15.6

4star

K

6.6

3star

HB

9.0

5star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.6

4star

who was a promising Qld talent. Mitch ended up lasting to 40 with us picking at 41 so I was a bit crushed but more than happy that Michael Walters

10

Michael Walters

Age

33

Ht

176cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.2

4star

K

11.0

4star

HB

6.2

4star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.9

4star

G

1.7

5star

D

20.9

5star

K

11.8

5star

HB

9.1

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

3.3

4star

G

1.0

4star

D

13.0

4star

K

9.4

4star

HB

3.6

3star

M

4.4

4star

T

1.8

4star

G

0.8

4star

who was a supremely talented player who had fallen to us. When the club took Todd Banfield

Todd Banfield

Age

33

Ht

183cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.6

2star

K

6.0

2star

HB

3.6

3star

M

2.5

3star

T

3.5

5star

G

1.1

4star

No current season stats available

D

12.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

4.8

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

4.0

5star

G

1.2

4star

I was incandescent at the stupidity of the club and the recruitment staff. Next up at 57 we finally went back to my playbook and took another favourite of mine in Aaron Cornlius which somewhat redeemed them. Lastly there were a couple of high upside types in McCullough and King who I didn't have a strong opinion on.

I was so sure I was right that I offered on here to sponsor a player if Redden or Banfield ended up being better than Robinson or Walters. The Redden pick ended up a wash relative to Robinson and Beams but I have to concede it was not the bad pick I thought it was. The Walters pick though was a massive win for me. With the two picks I was very happy about Rich ended up being a great pick whilst Cornelius who after Walters I considered the steal of the draft, ended up amounting to nothing (although I still blame the coaches a bit for that before injury cut short his career).

So for me I have no problem calling out if I think the club is wrong in a selection they have made. In doing that though I accept that sometimes I will end up with egg on my face and will have to eat humble pie. With that said for a very amateur draft watcher I am right enough that it should be embarrassing for a professional team.

So this year picking at 16 and 20 I will go on record and say that I would have picked Johnson and Sonsie and I think they will end up better players. I do like Wilmot and think he should develop into a nice AFL player I am just not sold that he has the ceiling that Johnson has. Lohman is a big high risk high reward pick who if he comes good he could be very good. The odds for me are though that won't get there. Sonsie I think has the same kind of ceiling with a much high floor and I feel he will be a solid best 22 player at worst.

Anyway wait and see. Happy for this to be thrown in my face in 5 years time if I am wrong (at which time I will be very happy that I was wrong).

 

[MSB ROYS]

All three speak really well...

 

[briztoon]

Wait, so jackess is scoman???

 

[briztoon]

The club was very clear they were drafting for need at their first two picks, and not considering best available talent.

I wasn’t at the Melbourne draft function, so have no intel what was said there, and most/all attendees don’t appear to want to share the information.

We clearly said we rated Wilmot ahead of Sinn and Chesser, yet both were drafted before Wilmot.

Does that mean our recruiting team got their rankings wrong?

Or does it mean our recruiters adjusted their rankings to reflect the player they believed would still be available at our pick, was the top of our list.

Or did we genuinely rate Wilmot higher, as he is a defensive first half back, while Sinn is an attacking minded half back, and Chesser is more a winger who can play back?

I can understand the Wilmot selection, as there was a fair chance he wouldn’t last to our second pick.

But like Quigley, I would have gone one of the sliding mids at our second pick. Though I would have gone Goater (who I know an opposition recruiter rated as a top 10 talent, before the draft).

I believed there would be a few decent half backs and half forwards available at our third pick, but believed it unlikely any of the decent mids or KPP’s would last to 41.

I don’t know what people are referring to about posters being critical of the clubs draft choices, as the only poster I have read who went ott was Jackess.

I don’t believe our recruiting team is beyond questioning. Over the last 5 or 6 drafts, we haven’t been one of the better teams at manoeuvring picks to go for the best or better talent, unlike some other clubs. Nor does our strike rate standout, compared to other teams.

 

[dlanod]

I wasn’t at the Melbourne draft function, so have no intel what was said there, and most/all attendees don’t appear to want to share the information.

Not a whole lot came out of that because the AFL forced all the team to remain on site until the very end of the draft (after 10 pm local time) instead of releasing them after our last pick, meaning that time with them was significantly limited compared to both previous years and the Brisbane event.

 

[M Malice]

All three speak really well...

Agree they all came across great, Kai and James mature well spoken young fellas, Darcy an extrovert and funny guy.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Still kicking around. Hope that's ok with you.
I maintain my major gripe was with the 2-3 years of poor (putting it nicely) pick trading that culminated in the pick we used on Lohmann.

Sunk cost fallacy.

Pick 20 in the draft is pick 20 in the draft. It’s value doesn’t change just because it has a story.

 

[spotthedog1]

Sunk cost fallacy.

Pick 20 in the draft is pick 20 in the draft. It’s value doesn’t change just because it has a story.

Only part of what he was saying, and he acknowledged that part on that night. We don't have a great track record with trades, or draft pick positioning (last year a perfect example when we moved to a spot, then lost that pick when Blake Coleman was bid where we weren't expecting it). We end up with pick 20, and take a relatively obscure player at the time, who it seemed likely would slide. With more info, he might not have (North reportedly considering him at their pick. Then again, the Dees were considering Howes at 19).

Sunk cost is an aspect, but it also is a history of questionable performance, so when something questionable happens on the night, there's an element of skepticism.

 

[Clarkythelion]

There were 83 players picked in the draft. Every piece of data on the draft and the success of players clearly show every pick, from 1 to 88 is hit and miss. On average any one pick is more likely to fail than succeed, they top few picks do have lower odd of failure but generally it's a lotto. The clubs always have inside information the draft watchers don't, they know more about the players they have, injuries and futures and they have been out and talked to the draft hopefully which the 'watchers' haven't.

I'm a great reader of draft articles and BigFooty threads, but know little of any draftee. I back the club to have chosen players they believe in, but I know the stats don't lie, we will be lucky to get 1 of 3 through and I remember recent years when we chose only 3 we got none through.

Go Lions, I wish for 3 from 3, but hope for 1 from 3.

 

[briztoon]

Only part of what he was saying, and he acknowledged that part on that night. We don't have a great track record with trades, or draft pick positioning (last year a perfect example when we moved to a spot, then lost that pick when Blake Coleman was bid where we weren't expecting it). We end up with pick 20, and take a relatively obscure player at the time, who it seemed likely would slide. With more info, he might not have (North reportedly considering him at their pick. Then again, the Dees were considering Howes at 19).

Sunk cost is an aspect, but it also is a history of questionable performance, so when something questionable happens on the night, there's an element of skepticism.

On the bolded part, that’s not quite true.

We were expecting it, as it was rumoured before we made the trade that Collingwood might bid on Coleman. And then we traded right into the range where many draft watchers rated him.

There was palpable relief on here when Collingwood made their two first round picks, without bidding on Coleman.

Thought we’d escaped.

But the Collingwood traded back in, as they had openly discussed they were wanting to do.

 

[Lace Out]

All these horrible trades and draft picks/strategies..keep it going Lions because I have really enjoyed playing finals the last 3 years

 

[martinson]

I wouldn't pretend to really know but on any vision I saw I really liked the look of Johnson and Goater. Obviously there are people full time on drafting who would have 95% of the intel and personal profiles compared to my 5% so I respect their choices.

But to say we really got it right because other teams wanted these guys or whatever is just as nutty as those who say we got it totally wrong . Let's come back in 3 years time and we'll have some idea.

Our drafting overall over the last 20 years has been average so that might explain some of the angst. Mind you lots other teams have worse records . The trend seems to be having lots of crap picks and then hitting it lucky for a year or two. I'm sure our guys have lots of experience at the game and made what they believe were the best options for us when our picks came up.

What I do like is that our 3 picks seem athletic types with the capacity to get a lot stronger with a couple of years in the system. So let's hope they're guns.

 

[Hollow Knight]

But to say we really got it right because other teams wanted these guys or whatever is just as nutty as those who say we got it totally wrong .

Seems like a straw man to me. I don’t think anyone is saying we definitely got it right. They are just saying that those who claimed we could have traded back and got Lohmann at pick 41 were pretty much objectively wrong.

 

[mpal6]

Seems like a straw man to me. I don’t think anyone is saying we definitely got it right. They are just saying that those who claimed we could have traded back and got Lohmann at pick 41 were pretty much objectively wrong.

Yep, he would've been gone in that 21 to 30 block. It would be impossible to get it right unless we are trading back something like one spot and getting a second rounder freebie for it. Its the same problem Freo had with pick 21, they wanted Johnson or Goater but trading with Hawks and falling behind 2 spots would mean they might have missed out on both.

 

[irel]

All these horrible trades and draft picks/strategies..keep it going Lions because I have really enjoyed playing finals the last 3 years

Let's go back to 2018 then and make a judgement on our drafting:

1	21	Ely Smith - Trending towards de-listment
2	36	Tom Berry - Trending towards de-listment (Last chance saloon in 2022)
2	40	Tom Joyce - Gone
2	42	Connor McFadyen - Trending towards de-listment (Last chance saloon in 2022)
3	55	Noah Answerth - Fringe 23

Looking at above my judgement so far abysmal fail.
Ely Smyth, Tom Berry, McFadyen and Answerth have 2022 to redeem this draft.
Come back this time next year to make a more definitive judgement.

 

[Dalions]

Let's go back to 2018 then and make a judgement on our drafting:

1	21	Ely Smith - Trending towards de-listment
2	36	Tom Berry - Trending towards de-listment (Last chance saloon in 2022)
2	40	Tom Joyce - Gone
2	42	Connor McFadyen - Trending towards de-listment (Last chance saloon in 2022)
3	55	Noah Answerth - Fringe 23

Looking at above my judgement so far abysmal fail.
Ely Smyth, Tom Berry, McFadyen and Answerth have 2022 to redeem this draft.
Come back this time next year to make a more definitive judgement.

A little hard to judge the club on late pick fails.
Other than Ely the rest are late picks during a period where the club decided to trade for needs.
Who else did we get in during that period?
Neale, Lyons, McCarthy, Daniher, Charlie the year before, Cocky who really could be anything, Birchall, Adams and the best one of the lot in my eyes Hodge.
During the period you speak of, it has been a definite pass.
The draft is not everything.

 

[JasRulz63]

Let's go back to 2018 then and make a judgement on our drafting:

1	21	Ely Smith - Trending towards de-listment
2	36	Tom Berry - Trending towards de-listment (Last chance saloon in 2022)
2	40	Tom Joyce - Gone
2	42	Connor McFadyen - Trending towards de-listment (Last chance saloon in 2022)
3	55	Noah Answerth - Fringe 23

Looking at above my judgement so far abysmal fail.
Ely Smyth, Tom Berry, McFadyen and Answerth have 2022 to redeem this draft.
Come back this time next year to make a more definitive judgement.

The drafting is definitely looking like a miss that season, but at least the trading aspect (Neale, Adams, Linc, Beams for two firsts, pick swap with GC) made up for it so we didn't see as big a hit.

 

[briztoon]

Seems like a straw man to me. I don’t think anyone is saying we definitely got it right. They are just saying that those who claimed we could have traded back and got Lohmann at pick 41 were pretty much objectively wrong.

Again, I didn’t read everything posted here on draft night. Were other people saying we could of, or should of? Or was it just Jackess?

 

[briztoon]

I wouldn't pretend to really know but on any vision I saw I really liked the look of Johnson and Goater. Obviously there are people full time on drafting who would have 95% of the intel and personal profiles compared to my 5% so I respect their choices.

But to say we really got it right because other teams wanted these guys or whatever is just as nutty as those who say we got it totally wrong . Let's come back in 3 years time and we'll have some idea.

Our drafting overall over the last 20 years has been average so that might explain some of the angst. Mind you lots other teams have worse records . The trend seems to be having lots of crap picks and then hitting it lucky for a year or two. I'm sure our guys have lots of experience at the game and made what they believe were the best options for us when our picks came up.

What I do like is that our 3 picks seem athletic types with the capacity to get a lot stronger with a couple of years in the system. So let's hope they're guns.

I don’t believe it’s fair to judge the team’s recruiting over a 20 year period, because it wouldn’t have been the same recruiters.

Judge the current team on their performances since 2016.

 

[dlanod]

I don’t believe it’s fair to judge the team’s recruiting over a 20 year period, because it wouldn’t have been the same recruiters.

Judge the current team on their performances since 2016.

Conole has been with us since 2011.

Ambroglio since 2017.

Seems relatively logical to judge drafting and trading from those dates respectively.

 

[KissKiss]

Let's go back to 2018 then and make a judgement on our drafting:

1	21	Ely Smith - Trending towards de-listment
2	36	Tom Berry - Trending towards de-listment (Last chance saloon in 2022)
2	40	Tom Joyce - Gone
2	42	Connor McFadyen - Trending towards de-listment (Last chance saloon in 2022)
3	55	Noah Answerth - Fringe 23

Looking at above my judgement so far abysmal fail.
Ely Smyth, Tom Berry, McFadyen and Answerth have 2022 to redeem this draft.
Come back this time next year to make a more definitive judgement.

The other consideration that you need to make some calls on who else could have drafted? Were there others after that would have been better options?