Analysis 2021 draft thread

[Nunez]

Probably Naughton for mine. Finding a dangerous KPF is a godsend. Still has plenty to work on, but for what he’s shown and what he could still be, that’s who I’d choose.

Agreed. Would think Bailey would go pick 2. We really lucked out with him.

 

[dlanod]

Dow looks a bust as well

He was my mildly preferred option as a pure mid over a burst mid/forward, not that I got too attached given Rayner was the obvious pick.

 

[Tom14]

Probably Naughton for mine. Finding a dangerous KPF is a godsend. Still has plenty to work on, but for what he’s shown and what he could still be, that’s who I’d choose.

Naughton clear 1, Brayshaw clear 2 at this stage I think. I personally would take Bailey over Brayshaw for us given the goal upside and speed and we have enough inside mids currently, but he's better performed to date.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Yep. And it's tough to know without knowing all the inner machinations. But if we were expecting it, then effectively, we saw a trap coming and still fell for it. I don't recall another team having a first round pick used as part of the matching process for a long time. We've seen some really shrewd trading from other clubs with [bid > trade out > match > trade back in] scenarios, or trading up to get ahead of the bid (getting a first round pick + Coleman), or trading back behind the bid and accruing points/future picks.

But we did trade back to accrue points to match that bid, with Fremantle. We didn't use a first to match.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Naughton clear 1, Brayshaw clear 2 at this stage I think. I personally would take Bailey over Brayshaw for us given the goal upside and speed and we have enough inside mids currently, but he's better performed to date.

Yep at the moment perhaps but Bailey with the higher ceiling

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Naughton clear 1, Brayshaw clear 2 at this stage I think. I personally would take Bailey over Brayshaw for us given the goal upside and speed and we have enough inside mids currently, but he's better performed to date.

I'd agree with that. I think.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I think people are judging young players too quickly in this thread. Sure, you can make an interim evaluation at any point, but there's still a lot to play out for Rayner and Ely. Their careers aren't over yet. I don't feel a player can be judged properly after three years if they've suffered numerous injuries and have to beat out All-Australian calibre players to win a place in the side at their best position.

 

[briztoon]

But we did trade back to accrue points to match that bid, with Fremantle. We didn't use a first to match.

The point at the time was we could have made a better trade with that second round pick, pre draft.

And we would have still had enough late picks to match a bid for Coleman, and draft the players we did.

I think, from memory, we may have lost one or two late picks, when they finalised the picks for the draft, such as we lost a pick in the 60’s this year.

 

[Tom14]

The point at the time was we could have made a better trade with that second round pick, pre draft.

And we would have still had enough late picks to match a bid for Coleman, and draft the players we did.

I think, from memory, we may have lost one or two late picks, when they finalised the picks for the draft, such as we lost a pick in the 60’s this year.

I have never heard you criticise our draft trading before, but I am glad someone is brave enough to say it!

 

[Johnny Bananas]

The point at the time was we could have made a better trade with that second round pick, pre draft.

And we would have still had enough late picks to match a bid for Coleman, and draft the players we did.

I think, from memory, we may have lost one or two late picks, when they finalised the picks for the draft, such as we lost a pick in the 60’s this year.

That's a fair point, but I was responding to a post that said something else entirely.

 

[martinson]

I don’t believe it’s fair to judge the team’s recruiting over a 20 year period, because it wouldn’t have been the same recruiters.

Judge the current team on their performances since 2016.

Yeah sure. I was just making the point that the perception from some people is that our drafting has been ordinary since forever.

And since 2016 probably middling at best with the jury still out on a few players.

 

[martinson]

Hitting on the late picks is often the thing that gets a team right to the top of the tree and keeps them their when they get there. The Academy is a big advantage for us with later picks but lately we have not really taken advantage of that.

Excellent point. A solid player with a later pick is gold. An ordinary player with a first round pick is poison.

 

[martinson]

Remembering that until recently many felt that Petracca was not going to live up to expectations. If he stays injury free Cam has the potential to get to that level

Huge call.

Petracca is the best player going around. A complete matchwinner . Some of the things he's able to do are god like.

I'd love to see it but it's a long way to get there for Cam imo.

 

[Nunez]

Huge call.

Petracca is the best player going around. A complete matchwinner . Some of the things he's able to do are god like.

I'd love to see it but it's a long way to get there for Cam imo.

Just as it was a long was for Petracca to get there.

I have faith Cam will become a very good player.

 

[briztoon]

Huge call.

Petracca is the best player going around. A complete matchwinner . Some of the things he's able to do are god like.

I'd love to see it but it's a long way to get there for Cam imo.

Two years ago, many on here were questioning whether Petracca could progress to the player he is today.

 

[BangyBangy]

When the 2022 season starts Petracca will be 26. Cam has just turned 22.

If Cam has a stellar season in 2024 and makes All Australian, then becomes arguably the best mid forward in 2025 then he'd be matching Petracca time line wise.

Lot of water to go under the bridge between now & then.

 

[dlanod]

Two years ago, many on here were questioning whether Petracca could progress to the player he is today.

I thought he'd be a good impact player, but turning into what he was this year basically meant maintaining that impact consistently while on the ground - it was a very impressive step up to get there.

 

[scoman]

I think I have seen it mentioned that Petracca, despite being rather maligned at times by fans, was still fairly productive in his early years. Far more than Rayner I am pretty sure. That's not to say Cam can't get to that level, but he isn't exactly on trac ( ) at this point.

What Cam did start to show last year was his ability to kick goals more regularly and stand up in big moments. His performance in the final against Richmond was rather Rioli like, with two or three game changing moments.

Hopefully he can pick up where he left off and his improved fitness will help him increase his midfield time and production.

 

[bungalow_bill]

The fact that we're talking about Cam potentially being as good as the games best player is already saying a lot. And if so we will have two of the top 5 players from the 2017 draft. On top of that Starcevich may end up a top 10 player as well

 

[scoman]

Also like to add that it's very rare the first pick is ever considered the best player in their draft class by the end of their career. At the end of the day it's just one pick out of 60-70.

And I certainly wouldn't consider Rayner a bust as the number one pick either. Not at this point in time with what he has already achieved or into the future as I'm pretty confident he hasn't reached his ceiling yet.

 

[martinson]

Two years ago, many on here were questioning whether Petracca could progress to the player he is today.

Of course. As they do with every high draft pick who doesn't produce magic in their first 3 or 4 years.

Petracca has done it reaching an unimaginable high level but from a higher base than Rayner imo.

Just a personal opinion but he's the best player I've seen as far as impact for his team goes in a long time. Before him Dusty and then who ? Garry Junior ? Fyffe maybe. I suppose we want to see him keep doing it like Dusty.

So he's a bit of a one off . He was questioned because 99 % of high picks who looked like he did in their early years don't get anywhere near where he is.

I've got high hopes for Cam but let's just ease the pressure off him .Saying look at Petracca ,Cam could do that is setting too high a bar for a guy who shows a lot of promise and is coming off an ACL..

 

[Dalions]

Also like to add that it's very rare the first pick is ever considered the best player in their draft class by the end of their career. At the end of the day it's just one pick out of 60-70.

And I certainly wouldn't consider Rayner a bust as the number one pick either. Not at this point in time with what he has already achieved or into the future as I'm pretty confident he hasn't reached his ceiling yet.

I see Cam as a Low possession High impact type of player.
If he can get his average possession count to around 20-25 per game with some more midfield time, then we will be talking about him as a game breaker because he makes his possessions count.

 

[martinson]

I see Cam as a Low possession High impact type of player.
If he can get his average possession count to around 20-25 per game with some more midfield time than we will be talking about him as a game breaker because he makes his possessions count.

True.

 

[Nuggo]

Lots of worse No 1 picks then Cam. Even at this stage.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Of course. As they do with every high draft pick who doesn't produce magic in their first 3 or 4 years.

Petracca has done it reaching an unimaginable high level but from a higher base than Rayner imo.

Just a personal opinion but he's the best player I've seen as far as impact for his team goes in a long time. Before him Dusty and then who ? Garry Junior ? Fyffe maybe. I suppose we want to see him keep doing it like Dusty.

So he's a bit of a one off . He was questioned because 99 % of high picks who looked like he did in their early years don't get anywhere near where he is.

I've got high hopes for Cam but let's just ease the pressure off him .Saying look at Petracca ,Cam could do that is setting too high a bar for a guy who shows a lot of promise and is coming off an ACL..

There's often a bit of recency bias that comes into play when it comes to things like rating the current best player/team.

As far as impact on his team goes I'd have Voss as the best ever