Mega Thread 2021 Draft

[Lore]

Hey guys, scuse the intrusion. Thought you might like to have this resource on your board (mods might like to sticky):

 

[Ford Fairlane]

 

[Addy23]

There's always a couple of reaches and sliders, ie Chayce Jones over Butters.

This year it will probably be talls/WA locals: Andrew seems to be a favourite, and Amiss and Erasmus will be tempting for both WCE and Freo picking ahead of us.

It won't be the biggest surprise if Freo pick up Erasmus and Amiss with 6 and 8 (becomes 8 and 10) and then West Coast pick up Johnson at 10 (becomes 12).

Amiss gives Freo what they badly need which is a key forward.

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

The draft watchers on the main board have been averaged out and this is where they are currently at:

1. (1.2) Nick Daicos (2, 1, 1, 2, 1)
2. (1.6) Jason Horne-Francis (1, 2, 2, 1, 2)
3. (3.0) Sam Darcy (3, 3, 3, 3, 3)
4. (4.0) Finn Callaghan (4, 4, 4, 4, 4)
5. (7.6) Josh Ward (5, 6, 7, 11, 9)
6. (8.0) Neil Erasmus (6, 10, 6, 7, 11)
7. (8.8) Ben Hobbs (18, 5, 5, 10, 6)
8. (11.6) Josh Gibcus (20, 7, 20, 6, 5)
9. (11.8) Josh Sinn (NA, 15, 15, 7, 10)
10. (12.5) Josh Goater (NA, 18, 8, 8, 17)
11 (13.0) Arlo Draper (12, 12, NA, 12, 16)
12. (13.8) Matthew Johnson (8, 13, 14, 19, 15)
13 (14.8) Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (16, 14, 12, 14, 18)
14. (15.2) Matthew Roberts (7, 17, 13, 20, 19)
15. (15.6) Josh Rachele (15, 9, 16, 18, 20)

 

[Duck Farmer]

I will cry if Rachele ends up at Adelaide

It will be a heartbreaking story of a young man's journey from Shepparton to Karparkistan.

 

[VineValerian]

The draft watchers on the main board have been averaged out and this is where they are currently at:

1. (1.2) Nick Daicos (2, 1, 1, 2, 1)
2. (1.6) Jason Horne-Francis (1, 2, 2, 1, 2)
3. (3.0) Sam Darcy (3, 3, 3, 3, 3)
4. (4.0) Finn Callaghan (4, 4, 4, 4, 4)
5. (7.6) Josh Ward (5, 6, 7, 11, 9)
6. (8.0) Neil Erasmus (6, 10, 6, 7, 11)
7. (8.8) Ben Hobbs (18, 5, 5, 10, 6)
8. (11.6) Josh Gibcus (20, 7, 20, 6, 5)
9. (11.8) Josh Sinn (NA, 15, 15, 7, 10)
10. (12.5) Josh Goater (NA, 18, 8, 8, 17)
11 (13.0) Arlo Draper (12, 12, NA, 12, 16)
12. (13.8) Matthew Johnson (8, 13, 14, 19, 15)
13 (14.8) Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (16, 14, 12, 14, 18)
14. (15.2) Matthew Roberts (7, 17, 13, 20, 19)
15. (15.6) Josh Rachele (15, 9, 16, 18, 20)

Damn I would love to get another couple of picks in the early 20's to go with 12. Talent in the top 30 is still of a high quality, but the consensus is it drops off sharply after that.
Our remaining picks will thus be speculative, but I can live with that.

 

[Addy23]

Damn I would love to get another couple of picks in the early 20's to go with 12. Talent in the top 30 is still of a high quality, but the consensus is it drops off sharply after that.
Our remaining picks will thus be speculative, but I can live with that.

Would love Zac Taylor if we were to trade back into the second round by giving up our future 2nd. Or if Campbell Chesser slid. That would give us two high potential midfielders (hoping we get Sonsie or Goater) and we can attack next year's draft for key position prospects

 

[It Just Is]

Trading Ladhams for that small pick upgrade will look a lot less shit if we end up with a choice of Sonsie or Rachelle.

 

[Addy23]

Trading Ladhams for that small pick upgrade will look a lot less sh*t if we end up with a choice of Sonsie or Rachelle.

Thats exactly what that pick swap has opened up for us. At 16, we were unlikely to get someone from what is classed as the 2nd tier of talent available in this pool. Now we have a real crack at one of Sonsie, Goater, Rachele, Draper and Wanganeen-Milera

 

[Macca19]

The draft watchers on the main board have been averaged out and this is where they are currently at:

1. (1.2) Nick Daicos (2, 1, 1, 2, 1)
2. (1.6) Jason Horne-Francis (1, 2, 2, 1, 2)
3. (3.0) Sam Darcy (3, 3, 3, 3, 3)
4. (4.0) Finn Callaghan (4, 4, 4, 4, 4)
5. (7.6) Josh Ward (5, 6, 7, 11, 9)
6. (8.0) Neil Erasmus (6, 10, 6, 7, 11)
7. (8.8) Ben Hobbs (18, 5, 5, 10, 6)
8. (11.6) Josh Gibcus (20, 7, 20, 6, 5)
9. (11.8) Josh Sinn (NA, 15, 15, 7, 10)
10. (12.5) Josh Goater (NA, 18, 8, 8, 17)
11 (13.0) Arlo Draper (12, 12, NA, 12, 16)
12. (13.8) Matthew Johnson (8, 13, 14, 19, 15)
13 (14.8) Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (16, 14, 12, 14, 18)
14. (15.2) Matthew Roberts (7, 17, 13, 20, 19)
15. (15.6) Josh Rachele (15, 9, 16, 18, 20)

My top 20 at the moment:

1. Jason Horne-Francis
2. Nick Daicos
3. Josh Sinn
4. Finn Callaghan
5. Sam Darcy
6. Tyler Sonsie
7. Josh Ward
8. Josh Rachele
9. Josh Gibcus
10. Matthew Johnson
11. Josh Goater
12. Ben Hobbs
13. Neil Erasmus
14. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
15. Mac Andrew
16. Arlo Draper
17. Campell Chesser
18. Jye Amiss
19. Rhett Bazzo
20. Darcy Wilmot

 

[charcolechaddy]

My top 20 at the moment:

1. Jason Horne-Francis
2. Nick Daicos
3. Josh Sinn
4. Finn Callaghan
5. Sam Darcy
6. Tyler Sonsie
7. Josh Ward
8. Josh Rachele
9. Josh Gibcus
10. Matthew Johnson
11. Josh Goater
12. Ben Hobbs
13. Neil Erasmus
14. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
15. Mac Andrew
16. Arlo Draper
17. Campell Chesser
18. Jye Amiss
19. Rhett Bazzo
20. Darcy Wilmot

You don’t have Roberts as top 20, would hate to see him slide to a pick in the mid twenties and not be in the game.

 

[Macca19]

Lightning quick off half back, had some good moments through the midfield pre-injury. If he can become a midfielder he has Dangerfield like qualities, except doesn't seem like a total tosser. If we get him it would be amazing.

 

[Macca19]

You don’t have Roberts as top 20, would hate to see him slide to a pick in the mid twenties and not be in the game.

I have him at 22. Its hard to place him because on one hand I really love what he brings to the table and I think he's a big chance of succeeding. On the other hand, his lack of pace and rushed disposal is a big negative.

I'd written off Jack Graham pre draft as being too slow and 12 months later he's kicking 3 goals in a GF. If Graham can make it then so can Roberts

 

[Grave Danger]

Good article here explaining the intricacies of the points system re draft picks, matching F/S and NGA bids, pick swap strategy, etc...

All you need to know about the AFL draft points system

There are two elite father-son prospects this year, Nick Daicos and Sam Darcy. Here’s how the points system will deliver them to their clubs on draft night.

www.theage.com.au

(if you get paywalled delete The Age cookies from your cache )

 

[Enviable Tradition]

Lightning quick off half back, had some good moments through the midfield pre-injury. If he can become a midfielder he has Dangerfield like qualities, except doesn't seem like a total tosser. If we get him it would be amazing.

You lost me at half back.

 

[philthy05]

You lost me at half back.

As a halfback he’s more like an extra wingman. Will push up the field and run and carry and kick long.


I’m very much in the pick a genuine mid camp but there aren’t a lot of genuine centre mids that will be available at our pick to be honest.
If we’re picking a flanker type than at least sinn has massive potential to be a high level player and possibly a very very good midfielder. Goater is the same for me. He’s definitely a flanker / utility for the first half of his career. But he’s a very promising player.

 

[Sleezy]

As a halfback he’s more like an extra wingman. Will push up the field and run and carry and kick long.


I’m very much in the pick a genuine mid camp but there aren’t a lot of genuine centre mids that will be available at our pick to be honest.
If we’re picking a flanker type than at least sinn has massive potential to be a high level player and possibly a very very good midfielder. Goater is the same for me. He’s definitely a flanker / utility for the first half of his career. But he’s a very promising player.

Have you got a top 20? Be interested to know how much happier you'd be with 14 on that list v. the 18 & Lil Pisty we once had

 

[Ford Fairlane]

It's a long time ago now, but was Dangerfield considered a strong speedy wingman with a wayward kick in his draft year?

I seem to remember him being considered more outside than genuine mid.

 

[philthy05]

Have you got a top 20? Be interested to know how much happier you'd be with 14 on that list v. the 18 & Lil Pisty we once had

It’s really hard for me to do a top 20 as there’s gaps for me in terms of players watched.

Ie I’ve watched tonnes of Sa, zero of qld, nsw, Tassie, a bit of the Vic lads but some of them missed a bit of football this year ie Callahan (so only saw a bit of him and it was so long ago I barely remember) and a bit of wa but have missed some of those boys ie I haven’t seen Erasmus at all.

So any kind of rating that involves all players is a bit hard.

It’s easier for me to pick what I like about certain players, the things that could work well at afl level, and the things I don’t like about players that I think won’t work as well.

I would rather have a first 22 player and a shot to draft a first 22 player than a marginally better shot at drafting 1 first 22 player.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

Pick swaps starting to happen (not Port yet)

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

It's a long time ago now, but was Dangerfield considered a strong speedy wingman with a wayward kick in his draft year?

I seem to remember him being considered more outside than genuine mid.

Someone during trade week said he started as a HBF. Your post made me look at the draft and trading board to see how accurate that comment was. Found this from Weaver's review of 2007 talent in July 2007 after the national championships.

Leading draft prospects at midyear

1. Matt Kreuzer (Ruck / Fwd) Capable in the ruck, but superb at ground level. Lays tackles, spoils and bumps like no other ruckman. Good skills, clean hands below his knees, superb balance. Great recovery and second efforts. Can go forward and pinch a goal or two. Very mobile. His...

www.bigfooty.com

29. Patrick Dangerfield (BP, Centre)
Was on-fire early for Geelong in the backpocket where he beat all comers as a rampaging backpocket. Given the tough tagging tasks in the carnival so is perhaps under-exposed. Big-bodied centreman / onballers are rare and sought after and Dangerfield fits the profile. He is tough as teak and kicks the ball well. No Jordan Lewis (yet) but clubs after someone to fill that sort of ruck-rover role won't have too many options and Dangerfield will be close to the best of them.

 

[Macca19]

It's a long time ago now, but was Dangerfield considered a strong speedy wingman with a wayward kick in his draft year?

I seem to remember him being considered more outside than genuine mid.

He was mainly a defender who played only the 1 game in the midfield in his draft year

 

[philthy05]

Pick swaps starting to happen (not Port yet)

?

Why are Collingwood trading picks up when daicos will be bid on in the first 3 picks?

That’s a strange one.

They’ve got enough points.

And if they didn’t have enough list spots to use all of their picks (tho I think they do) they could still bundle up into less picks without using a future pick and wouldn’t need to get as high as the 20’s.

Reckon there’s more trades to come from Collingwood.

Maybe a trade out then trade back in after the bid for a player they want type thing.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

?

Why are Collingwood trading picks up when daicos will be bid on in the first 3 picks?

That’s a strange one.

They’ve got enough points.

And if they didn’t have enough list spots to use all of their picks (tho I think they do) they could still bundle up into less picks without using a future pick and wouldn’t need to get as high as the 20’s.

Reckon there’s more trades to come from Collingwood.

Maybe a trade out then trade back in after the bid for a player they want type thing.

I think 7 reported that the wrong way around. Richmond get 27.

 

[Sleezy]

I think 7 reported that the wrong way around. Richmond get 27.

And they had enough if Daicos went at 3, but not at 2 or 1. May have enough if he goes at 2 now.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

?

Why are Collingwood trading picks up when daicos will be bid on in the first 3 picks?

That’s a strange one.

They’ve got enough points.

And if they didn’t have enough list spots to use all of their picks (tho I think they do) they could still bundle up into less picks without using a future pick and wouldn’t need to get as high as the 20’s.

Reckon there’s more trades to come from Collingwood.

Maybe a trade out then trade back in after the bid for a player they want type thing.

If they've got enough pts but now have extra picks, they obviously intend to use these later picks.

This trade saw them get an extra 191 pts this year, so if they have news from NM and GWS that they definitely wont bid on Daicos, then they have just ensured that they have 3 picks after a bid at #3 - pick 48 with the 60pts needed from that pick and converts that to 53, as well as 55 and 58 which get adjusted anyway by chewing up picks 36, 38, 40, 46 and part of 48.

If they know GC wont bid on Daicos so he now will be taken at # 4, then they only have to give up 36, 38, 40 and part of 46 and balance becomes 65, so they have 48, 55, 58 and 65 to use.