Prediction 2021 Early Ladder Predictions

WHO WILL MAKE THE 8

  • Adelaide

    Votes: 7 1.1%
  • Brisbane

    Votes: 344 56.0%
  • Carlton

    Votes: 62 10.1%
  • Collingwood

    Votes: 16 2.6%
  • Essendon

    Votes: 18 2.9%
  • Fremantle

    Votes: 41 6.7%
  • Geelong

    Votes: 256 41.7%
  • Gold Coast

    Votes: 25 4.1%
  • GWS

    Votes: 17 2.8%
  • Hawthorn

    Votes: 43 7.0%
  • Melbourne

    Votes: 35 5.7%
  • North Melbourne

    Votes: 14 2.3%
  • Port Adelaide

    Votes: 295 48.0%
  • Richmond

    Votes: 422 68.7%
  • St Kilda

    Votes: 121 19.7%
  • Sydney

    Votes: 12 2.0%
  • West Coast

    Votes: 147 23.9%
  • Western Bulldogs

    Votes: 107 17.4%

  • Total voters
    614

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1. Brisbane
2. West Coast
3. Richmond
4. Geelong
5. St Kilda
6. Melbourne
7. Fremantle
8. Port Adelaide
-
9. Western Bulldogs
10. Collingwood
11. GWS
12. Gold Coast
13. Sydney
14. Carlton.
15. Essendon
16. Hawthorn
17. Adelaide
18. North Melbourne
 
1. Richmond
2. Geelong
3. Port Adelaide
4. Brisbane Lions
5. St. Kilda
6. Western Bulldogs
7. West Coast Eagles
8. Melbourne
—————————————-
9. Carlton
10. Collingwood
11. Sydney
12. GWS
13. Gold Coast Suns
14. Hawthorn
15. Fremantle
16. Essendon
17. Adelaide
18. North Melbourne
 
Geelong
Port
Richmond
Bulldogs
Brisbane
St Kilda
West Coast
Collingwood

Melbourne
Carlton
Essendon
GWS
Fremantle
Sydney
Gold Coast
Hawthorn
Adelaide
North Melbourne
 
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1: Brisbane ( Will only get better)
2: Port (Very underrated list)
3: Richmond ( Probably pip Brisbane to win the flag)
5: Bulldogs (if they can keep Dunkley get a forward to bag 50+ then could bery will be higher)
4: Saints ( very much on the up)
6: Geelong (will still be competitive but I think the window has closed)
7: Fremantle ( very exciting list and will surprise a few next season)
8: West Coast ( if they can speed up their play and handle the frenetic ground ball then they will challenge for the flag, if not they might even finish lower)
9: Collingwood (The loss of Treloar will seem them slip but could still make the 8 )
10: Carlton ( could very well sneak into the 8)
11: GWS ( another mass exodus)
12: Melbourne ( Where are the wins coming from?)
13: Gold Coast ( will see a more consistent brand , were pretty good last season)
14: Sydney (rebuild in-progress)
15: Adelaide (rebuild in-progress but need to get rid of more backroom deadwood)
16: Hawthorn ( Need to start their rebuild won't be surprised to see Mitchell take over mid season 21)
17: Essendon (Shambles)
18: North ( starting almost from scratch like an expansion club)
 
I used random.org to help me, and had to refresh about 10 times until I was happy with the order:


  1. Hawthorn
  2. Richmond
  3. Collingwood
  4. Essendon
  5. Geelong
  6. St Kilda
  7. North Melbourne
  8. Port Adelaide
  9. Gold Coast Suns
  10. Melbourne
  11. Brisbane Lions
  12. Carlton
  13. Western Bulldogs
  14. Greater Western Sydney Giants
  15. West Coast Eagles
  16. Fremantle
  17. Sydney Swans
  18. Adelaide
 
1. Brisbane
2. Geelong
3. Richmond
4. Port Adelaide
5. West Coast
6. St Kilda
7. Carlton
8. Fremantle
----------
9. Melbourne
10. Western Bulldogs
11. Gold Coast
12. Collingwood
13. Hawthorn
14. Sydney
15. GWS
16. Adelaide
17. Essendon
18. North Melbourne
 
1. Geelong Cats
2. Port Adelaide
3. Brisbane
4. Richmond
5. West Coast Eagles
6. Collingwood
7. St Kilda
8. Melbourne
9. Gold Coast
10. GWS
11. Carlton
12. Western Bulldogs
13. Fremantle
14. Hawthorn
15. Essendon
16. Sydney
17. Adelaide
18. North


Some notes:

Top 4

- Geelong are always a good performer during the home and away season and with the inclusion of Cameron should finish with the minor premiership but not win the whole thing.
- Port have a good list and will finish 2nd.
- Richmond's list and experience is too good to not have them in the top 4. But like previous years, they will finish 3rd or 4th.
- The last top four spot was tricky to give. I feel the Lions will take it. They only have more improvement to come.

5 - 6

- The Eagles still have so much quality and may still even make the top 4. But the four teams above them will be hard to displace for one of those spots. So the next best spot for them is 5th.
- The Pies will either slide or stay in the top 8. I still think we have enough quality in the list though and I don't think we will slip outside the 8. I think we will finish where we should have this year in 6th position.

7 - 12

- All these teams are a chance to play finals in my mind. But I think the Saints and Dees will make it.
- GWS have too much talent still to slide way down the ladder, but they most likely won't make finals.
- Gold Coast will only get stronger in 2021 under Stewy Dew. He has really helped them to turn the corner.
- It's bit of a boom or bust for Carlton in 2021. They just have to make finals. They have enough talent and experience in the list now to make them.

13 - 14

- Two teams who will have a good season for their current list profile. They will upset a few of the top teams no doubt.

15 - 16

- Two teams that will provide relatively easy points for most teams above them. Their lists are just not up to the task of winning a lot of AFL games in season 2021.

17 - 18

- You can't help but feel that all the on-field and off-field issues North has had to deal with over the past few years will take it's toll in 2021. Sure North had heaps of injuries in 2020, but they haven't had a steady coach in years and that is huge in my mind. They will battle it out for the spoon with the Crows.


I may adjust the ladder following the trade/draft periods.

Edited ladder below:

1. Geelong Cats
2. Port Adelaide
3. Brisbane
4. Richmond
5. West Coast Eagles
6. St. Kilda (gained 1 place)
7. Melbourne (gained 1 place)
8. Carlton (gained 3 places)
9. Western Bulldogs (gained 3 places)
10. Gold Coast (dropped 1 place)
11. Fremantle (gained 2 places)
12. Collingwood (dropped 6 places)
13. GWS (dropped 3 places)
14. Hawthorn
15. Sydney (gained 1 place)
16. Essendon (dropped 1 place)
17. Adelaide
18. North
 
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1 Brisbane
2 St Kilda
3 West Coast
4 Port Adelaide
5 Richmond
6 Geelong
7 Carlton
8 Gold Coast

9 Melbourne
10 Fremantle
11 Collingwood
12 Western Bulldogs
13 Sydney Swans
14 Adelaide Crows
15 Hawthorn
16 GWS Giants
17 North Melbourne
18 Essendon
 

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Made in 2 minutes:

1 Geelong
2 Brisbane
3 Richmond
4 West Coast
5 St Kilda
6 Port Adelaide
7 Collingwood
8 Western Bulldogs
9 Fremantle
10 Gold Coast
11 GWS
12 Melbourne
13 Carlton
14 Hawthorn
15 Sydney
16 Essendon
17 Adelaide
18 North Melbourne
 
I’m usually always wrong with these things but here we go:

1. Brisbane
2. Geelong
3. Richmond
4. West Coast
5. Port Adelaide
6. Bulldogs
7. St Kilda
8. Carlton

9. Melbourne
10. Gold Coast
11. Collingwood
12. Fremantle
13. Sydney
14. GWS
15. Essendon
16. Hawthorn
17. Adelaide
18. North Melbourne

Should be a healthy comp next year - most teams on the up. Will be some good teams missing finals.
 
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1. Richmond
2. Brisbane
3. West Coast
4. Geelong
5. Port Adelaide
6. Fremantle
7. St Kilda
8. Collingwood
9. Melbourne
10. Bulldogs
11. Gold Coast
12. GWS
13. Carlton
14. Hawthorn
15. Sydney
16. Essendon
17. Adelaide
18 North Melbourne
 
1. Richmond
2. Brisbane
3. Geelong
4. West Coast
5. Port Adelaide
6. Collingwood
7. St Kilda
8. Carlton

9. Western Bulldogs
10. Fremantle
11. Melbourne
12. GWS
13. Gold Coast
14. Sydney
15. Essendon
16. Hawthorn
17. Adelaide
18. North Melbourne
Overall pretty hard to predict, especially from around 6-13.
 
Why every team has upside:

Adelaide (Will get Pick 1 and possibly Pick 2 coming into the club, you cant go lower than 18th!)
Brisbane (A natural progression- 2019 straight sets loss, 2020 PF loss, 2021 should see them make the Grand Final with more experience under their belt)
Carlton (On the rise plus looks like some big inclusions)
Collingwood (Will get a healthy list back)
Essendon (Rutten finally coaches in his own right plus a huge list turnover)
Fremantle (On the rise)
Geelong (Cameron into the Forwardline, it looks positive)
Gold Coast (Rowell back for a full season, another pre season under the boys, natural progression could see them do a Brisbane 2019)
GWS Giants (Will get an easier draw for finishing outside the eight, will get compensated for losing players)
Hawthorn (Showed great signs vs Suns late in the season, another preseason could do wonders)
Melbourne (Have the quality to make finals, Add Brown into the FWD then they could do some damage)
North (New Coach, new list, new era)
Port (Will be hurting after not making the GF being on top all year. This hurt will drive success)
Richmond (Everything they touch turns to gold. DOMINANCE)
St Kilda (Tight losses in 2020 cost them Top 4. On the rise under a great coach)
Sydney (Another PS under the belt for the young lost will do wonders like Hawks)
West Coast (Still has a great list. Top 4 should be a certainty)
Western Bulldogs (Has a great young list, almost won that Elim Final!)
 
I'm predicting Fremantle and potentially Carlton and Melbourne to make the jump into the top 8.

Freo natural development of young stars and a serious commitment/buy in off field to culture. Carlton some strong acquisitions at the trade table and Curnow, (plus Marchbank, Newman) return, surely McGovern can't suck as much again. Melbourne borderline 8 and will be thereabouts again.

I have the Pies and potentially the Dogs and Eagles to drop out.

Eagles are a tough one - a good run with injuries top 4, but they potentially lack depth in some areas. They covered injuries well enough this year but I'm curious as to what another year into Hurn, Kennedy, NicNat etc means.

Collingwood made the semis yes but somehow they only just fell into the 8. I'm thinking they peaked in 2018. The Dogs need to fix their ruck and forward line, English is great around the ground but is 2021 the year he competes at stoppages enough?
 
RICH Too strong and will get the G spot next year.
PORT If their season runs well, it it doesn't they miss the eight.
BRIS Lots to like, I believe they're two years away from wining the cup.
GEEL Another that could miss the eight, but shouldn't based on their list. its all in the mind.
WEST a strong team that i'm expecting to bounce back.
SAINTS on the way up.
BULL on the way up.
CARL Stars will be more mature. on the way up.
 
1. Richmond
2. St Kilda
3. Port Adelaide
4. Brisbane Lions
5. Western Bulldogs
6. West Coast Eagles
7. Carlton
8. Melbourne
9. Geelong
10. Collingwood
11. Gold Coast
12. Fremantle
13. GWS Giants
14. Sydney Swans
15. Adelaide Crows
16. Hawthorn
17. Essendon
18. North Melbourne
 
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1. Richmond - nuff said.
2. St Kilda - gusty side who could be the next AFL "fairytale". Vulnerable if any of their talls get injured.
3. Geelong - will once again be near invincible at Goombha Stadium.
4. Brisbane - will find it a bit tougher having to travel. Question marks remain over their composure in key moments.
5. Bulldogs - up and down in 2020. Will enjoy being back under the roof. A lot hinges on Naughton's ability to stay fit.
6. Port - can they get themselves up and about again? Not sure all of their midfielders can simultaneously replicate their outstanding 2020. Could still easily finish top four.
7. Collingwood - capable of knocking anyone off on their day, but also look vulnerable at times. Hard to see them improving enough to push top four.
8. Carlton - average side who could scrape into the eight, but won't trouble the top sides.
9. Fremantle - building nicely. Need more attacking options though.
10. West Coast - age and lack of speed is catching up with them. My tip to slide.
11. Sydney - improving but not their time yet. Time for some of their 3-5 year players to start pushing for AA.
12. GWS - stagnated. Losing players doesn't help, but they also need to throw their gameplan in the bin. Need a return to form from Kelly and Coniglio.
13. Melbourne - Goodwin will be the next coach sacked.
14. Essendon - change of coach/minor rebuild. Think they'll be a bit up and down, but need their leaders to stand up.
15. Gold Coast - won't improve like people are expecting. Having to travel won't help their cause.
16. Hawthorn - starting a rebuild. Could finish bottom.
17. Adelaide - hard rebuild. Senior players don't offer enough.
18. North Melbourne - hard rebuild. Senior players don't offer enough.
 
I'd have the teams at 5-11th as fairly close in my predictions, so could swap their order around.

I'm of the opinion that 2018 Melbourne was the exception, rather than the standard. They have too many non-AFL quality players in that 22 and now have questions marks over their spine with the McDonald's likely gone (even if Oscar is only depth now). Although May and Gawn are both damn good players.

I just read that they have signed Jones on for another year. He was cooked two seasons ago. Giving him another year is a sign that they are nowhere near it.
Think Adelaide will be better than second last that most people have them. In fact I will go out on a limb and say they finish above Gold Coast and hawthorn. Carlton (And GC) will Promise a lot early and then lose 10 in a row.
 
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