Prediction 2021 Fixture

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gringo2011

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just refresh my memory ... did we have a hard fixture or easy one in 2009 ????
the fixture is the fixture any team any time anywhere ... we have build a damn strong team one that will take a heck of an effort from our opponent to beat instead of us worrying about who we play twice the opponent should be worried they have been drawn to play us twice ....
Of course you have to play anyone anywhere any time, but why should we accept having our legs shackled before every race just because we aren't first thought in AFL planning. If we miss the finals by one game where the team that took our spot in finals got one less game against a top 4 side it's just blatantly unfair. Sometimes you have to take a hit for the competition but to be constantly hit because you don't stand up for yourself would be dumb management.

We paid off the Docklands stadium for the AFL and once it was sh*t and they they'd screwed us for years they decided we could have it back when we couldn't even get anyone to come. Hopefully Lethlean is making noise behind the scenes and praising the AFL in public.

Building a strong side is a lot easier if you have success. Hopefully the coaches use it to inspire the players to fight harder.
 

bergholt

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That's right because teams will surprise and disappoint every year.
Yes. And yet we'd still rather have double-ups against teams who were sh*t this year than teams who were good this year. As a general rule this year's performance is a pretty good predictor of next year's performance, even if it's not a perfect predictor.

Not sure why you're in this thread if you think the draw is purely random and we can't take anything from whether it's easy or hard.
 

George

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Yes. And yet we'd still rather have double-ups against teams who were sh*t this year than teams who were good this year. As a general rule this year's performance is a pretty good predictor of next year's performance, even if it's not a perfect predictor.

Not sure why you're in this thread if you think the draw is purely random and we can't take anything from whether it's easy or hard.
Lol, plenty of teams have harder or easier draws and underperform or overperform. Again doesn't really mean much when the competition is so even anyway.

And hey! I can be in this thread if I want :)
 

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George

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Of course you have to play anyone anywhere any time, but why should we accept having our legs shackled before every race just because we aren't first thought in AFL planning. If we miss the finals by one game where the team that took our spot in finals got one less game against a top 4 side it's just blatantly unfair. Sometimes you have to take a hit for the competition but to be constantly hit because you don't stand up for yourself would be dumb management.

We paid off the Docklands stadium for the AFL and once it was sh*t and they they'd screwed us for years they decided we could have it back when we couldn't even get anyone to come. Hopefully Lethlean is making noise behind the scenes and praising the AFL in public.

Building a strong side is a lot easier if you have success. Hopefully the coaches use it to inspire the players to fight harder.
Hope we aren't cracking the shits over something that hasn't happened yet. We moved up 9 spots on the ladder this year despite having the "3rd hardest" draw.

We may look back in hindsight at the end of next year and sit inside the top 4 having won 15 games and think geez there were plenty of sides we comfortably beat. All this really is is an exercise in creating worry.

If we are good enough we will be fine. All an easier fixture will do is give us a poorer representation of where we are actually at.
 

gringo2011

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Hope we aren't cracking the shits over something that hasn't happened yet. We moved up 9 spots on the ladder this year despite having the "3rd hardest" draw.

We may look back in hindsight at the end of next year and sit inside the top 4 having won 15 games and think geez there were plenty of sides we comfortably beat. All this really is is an exercise in creating worry.

If we are good enough we will be fine. All an easier fixture will do is give us a poorer representation of where we are actually at.
Not an exercise in creating worry, it's an exercise in being pissed off about being treated less fairly. The AFL seems to find new ways to fu** the lesser clubs. It is what it is for 2021 but the next year the campaigners owe us.

I read an article on NASCA in the old days that was on how Chrysler had come up with these huge Hemi motors that would beat the Ford and GM cars easily. They bigger companies then went to the competition bosses and demanded that Chrysler were limited to 5 litre motors when the others had open slather. Of course the competition just pandered to the bigger companies and bought in the rule. Sports administrators will always get sucked in by the demands of the bigger organisations, if you accept it you are an enabler.
 

George

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Not an exercise in creating worry, it's an exercise in being pissed off about being treated less fairly. The AFL seems to find new ways to fu** the lesser clubs. It is what it is for 2021 but the next year the campaigners owe us.

I read an article on NASCA in the old days that was on how Chrysler had come up with these huge Hemi motors that would beat the Ford and GM cars easily. They bigger companies then went to the competition bosses and demanded that Chrysler were limited to 5 litre motors when the others had open slather. Of course the competition just pandered to the bigger companies and bought in the rule. Sports administrators will always get sucked in by the demands of the bigger organisations, if you accept it you are an enabler.
But teams every year have a hard draw and manage just fine. What's wrong with playing the better, bigger drawing clubs? It's good for us. Plus, we are a decent side now.
 

BrutThough

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But teams every year have a hard draw and manage just fine. What's wrong with playing the better, bigger drawing clubs? It's good for us. Plus, we are a decent side now.
Whats wrong with expecting to be given a fixture that's equal in difficultly to everyone else who finished top 6 instead?
 

George

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Whats wrong with expecting to be given a fixture that's equal in difficultly to everyone else who finished top 6 instead?
That opinion is subjective though. Teams in the top 6 will drop and teams outside it will go up. You can only really assess the strength of the schedule in hindsight.

If you want to complain about it in regards to growing the exposure of the club and being a bigger club, then fine, we should have more marquee games to do that. But in terms of win loss? You can only really say how tough a schedule is if you know exactly how every team will perform next year. All you are basing it on is an assumption that every side will perform the same in 2021.

Finishing 5th playing 17 odd games interstate, I reckon we should be bullish about our chances in 2021.
 

George

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As you said before, teams overperform and underperform each year. Maybe one reason for that is the draw. I’d say the two biggest factors in underperformance are injuries and luck of the draw.
I don't think it plays a big a part as you may think it does. We can beat any side in the competition so if you start with that as a base then reasons for not winning a game would come down to injuries, form, strategy, or simply bad luck. Definitely a mixture of some of them but maybe a mixture of all of them.
 

BrutThough

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That opinion is subjective though. Teams in the top 6 will drop and teams outside it will go up. You can only really assess the strength of the schedule in hindsight.

If you want to complain about it in regards to growing the exposure of the club and being a bigger club, then fine, we should have more marquee games to do that. But in terms of win loss? You can only really say how tough a schedule is if you know exactly how every team will perform next year. All you are basing it on is an assumption that every side will perform the same in 2021.

Finishing 5th playing 17 odd games interstate, I reckon we should be bullish about our chances in 2021.
Of course teams will rise snd fall next year but they base the entire fixture off where clubs finish the year prior so it's generally a good tool for assessing the difficulty for the next season.

And we dont need to be half way through next season to know that having double ups against 4/5 teams who finished above us this year will be very difficult and it a much tougher proposition than other finals teams will be facing.
 

George

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Of course teams will rise snd fall next year but they base the entire fixture off where clubs finish the year prior so it's generally a good tool for assessing the difficulty for the next season.

And we dont need to be half way through next season to know that having double ups against 4/5 teams who finished above us this year will be very difficult and it a much tougher proposition than other finals teams will be facing.
How do you know games against teams that finished above us this year will be very difficult next year?
 

st_trav_ofWA

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Of course you have to play anyone anywhere any time, but why should we accept having our legs shackled before every race just because we aren't first thought in AFL planning. If we miss the finals by one game where the team that took our spot in finals got one less game against a top 4 side it's just blatantly unfair. Sometimes you have to take a hit for the competition but to be constantly hit because you don't stand up for yourself would be dumb management.

We paid off the Docklands stadium for the AFL and once it was sh*t and they they'd screwed us for years they decided we could have it back when we couldn't even get anyone to come. Hopefully Lethlean is making noise behind the scenes and praising the AFL in public.

Building a strong side is a lot easier if you have success. Hopefully the coaches use it to inspire the players to fight harder.
i do see what you are saying but the thing is if the goal is making finals then yes its not ideal having the harder run ... but when the goal is winning the flag having the easier run may get you to the finals but it wont help you win them ... if we miss out by one game then chances are we would only be making up numbers in the finals anyway ...
looking longer term we want a team that is going to be battle hardened for a long finals runs and ultimatly a flag .. playing the best is always going to fast track that development more than cruising along beating up on the weak
 

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BrutThough

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How do you know games against teams that finished above us this year will be very difficult next year?
Because I'm not being ignorant to how good the teams who finished around us are and about how they also strengthened their lists over the off season.

We can sit here and talk about how we will improve with us adding Crouch or getting Gresh back, but every club has similar claims for improvement next year. Geelong return to their home ground and add in the 2019 Coleman medalist. Richmond get back to the MCG. Port add in a much needed key defender and have the same natural important in their kids that we are banking on. West Coast get Yeo back and the additions of Witherden and Langdon will help them too.

We don't know whether those additions will make them better but we also dont know whether ours will either. All I know is teams who were already better than us have improved their lists. And so have teams who finished just below us. So to make finals with more double ups against those better teams than anyone else will be a challenge and we are going to need a lot of improvement on how we performed this year to do so.
 

George

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Because I'm not being ignorant to how good the teams who finished around us are and about how they also strengthened their lists over the off season.

We can sit here and talk about how we will improve with us adding Crouch or getting Gresh back, but every club has similar claims for improvement next year. Geelong return to their home ground and add in the 2019 Coleman medalist. Richmond get back to the MCG. Port add in a much needed key defender and have the same natural important in their kids that we are banking on. West Coast get Yeo back and the additions of Witherden and Langdon will help them too.

We don't know whether those additions will make them better but we also dont know whether ours will either. All I know is teams who were already better than us have improved their lists. And so have teams who finished just below us. So to make finals with more double ups against those better teams than anyone else will be a challenge and we are going to need a lot of improvement on how we performed this year to do so.
We may not improve though. My point is we don't know what will happen next year, yes it looks tougher than other teams now but it means nothing once we actually play those sides. Only time we can really say if this was a difficult fixture or not is after the fact.
 

BrutThough

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We may not improve though. My point is we don't know what will happen next year, yes it looks tougher than other teams now but it means nothing once we actually play those sides. Only time we can really say if this was a difficult fixture or not is after the fact.
It's pretty obvious right now that our fixture is very difficult. Any sense of realism would recognise that all of Richmond, Geelong, Port and West Coast aren't going to become crap teams overnight. One or two might regress slightly next year but they could all also improve. No matter how you slice it, it is a difficult proposition we will have to face.

I really don't understand why there is so much angst against people acknowledging this.
 

George

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It's pretty obvious right now that our fixture is very difficult. Any sense of realism would recognise that all of Richmond, Geelong, Port and West Coast aren't going to become crap teams overnight. One or two might regress slightly next year but they could all also improve. No matter how you slice it, it is a difficult proposition we will have to face.

I really don't understand why there is so much angst against people acknowledging this.
Or they could be like GWS and miss the finals after making a GF. If we knew how every team would go why bother playing haha
 

bergholt

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We may not improve though. My point is we don't know what will happen next year, yes it looks tougher than other teams now but it means nothing once we actually play those sides. Only time we can really say if this was a difficult fixture or not is after the fact.
Only time we can really say if a player is going to be good or not is after their career is over, but that doesn't stop us from having opinions on all of them all the time.
 

Crusty Undies

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How do you know games against teams that finished above us this year will be very difficult next year?
Are you trying to argue against the assertion that probability determines it's more likely to be a difficult game in future against teams that finished higher on the ladder this year than teams that finished lower? I sure hope not because that would be ridiculous.
 

George

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Only time we can really say if a player is going to be good or not is after their career is over, but that doesn't stop us from having opinions on all of them all the time.
Well that's a silly comparison to make isn't it. If a player wins a Brownlow you reckon we can't say if they are good or not?

Are you trying to argue against the assertion that probability determines it's more likely to be a difficult game in future against teams that finished higher on the ladder this year than teams that finished lower? I sure hope not because that would be ridiculous.
I'm saying you can't say if a fixture is good or bad because of the obvious fact that teams regress and improve every year. I think it's a fairly common sense opinion to have. Subjectively complaining about a fixture when you have no clue how any side will go next year. You can guess, which is what you are doing, but you then can't say your guess is fact (ie the fixture is hard or easy). The fixture is what it is. You only need to look at what we did in 2020 with the "3rd hardest" draw to understand strength of schedule is meaningless.

Nobody would've picked us beating the two sides who played in the GF the year prior. We beat both, one of which by 10 goals.

Nobody would've predicted we turn up to Adelaide twice in two weeks and win on a ground we never won at. But we did.

Having an opinion on the level of difficulty of a fixture is pointless IMO.
 

Crusty Undies

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Well that's a silly comparison to make isn't it. If a player wins a Brownlow you reckon we can't say if they are good or not?


I'm saying you can't say if a fixture is good or bad because of the obvious fact that teams regress and improve every year. I think it's a fairly common sense opinion to have. Subjectively complaining about a fixture when you have no clue how any side will go next year. You can guess, which is what you are doing, but you then can't say your guess is fact (ie the fixture is hard or easy). The fixture is what it is. You only need to look at what we did in 2020 with the "3rd hardest" draw to understand strength of schedule is meaningless.

Nobody would've picked us beating the two sides who played in the GF the year prior. We beat both, one of which by 10 goals.

Nobody would've predicted we turn up to Adelaide twice in two weeks and win on a ground we never won at. But we did.

Having an opinion on the level of difficulty of a fixture is pointless IMO.
Yes but it is more probable that a team who finished higher than another team will do better in the next year. Even if that is only true 51% of the time which I'd argue is a very very conservative estimate it still means the fixture is weighted towards or against certain clubs. Frankly it's ridiculous the line of argumentation you're running because taking it too it's conclusion means you would be saying GC has an equal chance of winning the premiership next year as Richmond.
 

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