Prediction 2021 Fixture

Remove this Banner Ad

George

Moderator
Aug 17, 2015
22,905
73,011
Victoria
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
PHL Eagles, Liverpool Panathinaikos
Yes but it is more probable that a team who finished higher than another team will do better in the next year. Even if that is only true 51% of the time which I'd argue is a very very conservative estimate it still means the fixture is weighted towards or against certain clubs. Frankly it's ridiculous the line of argumentation you're running because taking it too it's conclusion means you would be saying GC has an equal chance of winning the premiership next year as Richmond.
All subjective
 

L_W_P

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 23, 2009
10,458
16,364
SE Suburbs
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
New Orleans Saints, Boston Celtics
Which teams above us have really improved from 2020?

Port - Added Aliir and Fantasia. Both help them improve but they are vulnerable. Their midfield still relies on 32yo Boak to do a bulk of the attacking play & their forward line was basically "Stop Dixon = Stop Port".

Brisbane - Added Daniher. If he is fit then they should improve but they also lost Stef Martin from the ruck. Oscar Mac is not anything close to a world beater so again, they have a weakness we can exploit.

Richmond - Added nothing. Their list hasn't changed so it's just a matter of how much Cotchin and JRoo have left in the tank. Kick straight and stop Tommy Lynch and we are in a prelim in 2020.

Geelong - Added Cameron, Shaun Higgins and Isaac Smith. They are all in on 2021. It's a team of half a dozen absolutely elite players backed up by next to no depth at all. Any drop in form or fitness and they are stuffed.

West Coast - Added Witherden and Langdon. Got a couple of fringe players but these aren't guys who you would expect to turn into AA level talents. Witherden is a great fantasy option but is he a better HBF option than Hurn and Duggan? Langdon a good mature small forward but I doubt he does a Butler in 2021.

I don't see any reason we can't split out games with this lot.

Give Brisbane the win at home and we go 4-5. Should beat the Swans twice though so we come out of our double ups/games against those above us at 6-6. That gives us the 10 games against all the clubs that finished below us to find 6 more wins and make finals again.

R1 - GWS - Away - 50/50
R2
- Melbourne - Home - 50/50
R3
- Essendon - Neutral - Win
R4
- WCE - Home - Win
R5
- Richmond - Home - Win
R6
- Port - Away - Loss
R7
- Hawthorn - Home - Win
R8
- GCS - Away - Win
R9
- Geelong - Home - Win
R10
- Bulldogs - Neutral - 50/50
R11
- North - Neutral - Win
R12
- Sydney - Home - Win
R13
- Adelaide - Neutral - Win
R14
- BYE
R15 - Richmond - Away - Loss
R16
- Collingwood - Away - Win
R17
- Brisbane - Away - Loss
R18
- Port - Home - Win
R19
- WCE - Away - Loss
R20
- Carlton - Home - Win
R21
- Sydney - Away - Win
R22
- Geelong - Away - Loss
R23
- Fremantle - Home - Win

That's 14 wins.

Defend our home deck, beat the teams we should beat, and we should have enough wiggle room to drop a couple of games against the likes of Melbourne, GWS & the Bulldogs all of who I think actually improved more than the teams above us.

Brown at Melbourne is exactly what they needed. Straightens them up tremendously.

Dogs midfield is insane. I don't see JUH doing anything in 2021 but Bruce will be getting a massive rev up during the preseason.

Giants will be better without Cameron. Yep, I said it. They will spread the load and actually become MORE dangerous without the lazy 'kick it to Cameron' play inside 50. If Hogan sorts out his sh*t then they are my tip to shoot back up the ladder.

Even losing these 3 games there is no reason we should be settling for anything less than another finals berth with a very good chance that it's a home final as well.
 
Last edited:

Log in to remove this ad.

bergholt

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 14, 2007
5,556
12,430
Brunswick
AFL Club
St Kilda
Well that's a silly comparison to make isn't it. If a player wins a Brownlow you reckon we can't say if they are good or not?
Spot on! Except sometimes they’re Shane Woewodin.

So you reckon if a side makes the grand final you reckon we can’t say that they’re good and we’d rather not play them twice the next year? Even if once in a while they turn out to be Woewodin and miss the finals?
 

George

Moderator
Aug 17, 2015
22,905
73,011
Victoria
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
PHL Eagles, Liverpool Panathinaikos
Spot on! Except sometimes they’re Shane Woewodin.

So you reckon if a side makes the grand final you reckon we can’t say that they’re good and we’d rather not play them twice the next year? Even if once in a while they turn out to be Woewodin and miss the finals?
Haha you actually can't tell if a player is good until their career is over? Weird.

Anyway, not sure what you all don't quite seem to understand yet. I'm saying it's stupid to say with any conviction that next years fixture is a tough one given the multitude of changes teams will make from now until then. Fixture is what it is. Half the sides we think are good now may not be next year. Half we think are sh*t might turn good. So what you think now is a tough fixture might change, and lets be honest it probably will change, and that's exactly my point. You have no idea what will happen.
 

bergholt

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 14, 2007
5,556
12,430
Brunswick
AFL Club
St Kilda
Anyway, not sure what you all don't quite seem to understand yet. I'm saying it's stupid to say with any conviction that next years fixture is a tough one given the multitude of changes teams will make from now until then. Fixture is what it is. Half the sides we think are good now may not be next year. Half we think are sh*t might turn good. So what you think now is a tough fixture might change, and lets be honest it probably will change, and that's exactly my point. You have no idea what will happen.
Oh yeah, we all understand your point, we just all disagree with it. History says that these two statements are just wrong:

"Half the sides we think are good now may not be next year."
"Half we think are sh*t might turn good."

You think there's no way to assess the difficulty of the fixture in advance; a bunch of smart people disagree with you.
 

George

Moderator
Aug 17, 2015
22,905
73,011
Victoria
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
PHL Eagles, Liverpool Panathinaikos
Oh yeah, we all understand your point, we just all disagree with it. History says that these two statements are just wrong:

"Half the sides we think are good now may not be next year."
"Half we think are sh*t might turn good."

You think there's no way to assess the difficulty of the fixture in advance; a bunch of smart people disagree with you.
Yep, no way to cateogorically say it's either hard or easy given so much changes. Silly to assume you can make a judgement call on something like the difficulty of a fixture with any kind of certainty, haha
 

bergholt

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 14, 2007
5,556
12,430
Brunswick
AFL Club
St Kilda
Yep, no way to cateogorically say it's either hard or easy given so much changes. Silly to assume you can make a judgement call on something like the difficulty of a fixture with any kind of certainty, haha
The word “categorical” is the difference here, I think.

You’re saying that unless you can be certain, there’s no point thinking about it.

In my work life, I live constantly in grey areas. There’s never any certainty, even after the fact in most cases. (Did we do the right thing or did we just get lucky?)

So we deal almost entirely with likelihoods.

The Saints draw is likely to be more difficult than that of basically every other club. It might not turn out that way because it’s a complex system and there’s uncertainty, but the likelihood is that we end up with a tougher draw than everyone else.

That’s what everyone is discussing here. The likelihood, not the guaranteed outcome.
 

St Neil

Club Legend
Aug 14, 2016
1,865
6,911
Aspendale Gardens
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
Blackpool
12 games at Docklands, and the saints should expect to bank 9-10 wins from them. I reckon you should bag 14-15 wins all up.

These 2 matches in rounds 15 & 16 will tell us a lot about finals chances:

View attachment 1034454
I think that is the main point about the fixture. Not who you play, but where you play.

If we’re good enough we’ll win 9-10 games at Docklands and enough games elsewhere to get us to about 15 wins. Our team is built to win at Docklands. It should be a fortress for us regardless of the opposition.

We are at the point where we are ready to go. Bring on whoever we happen to be playing.

I’m even expecting us to beat the senior citizens at Geelong. Why not? I’d back our lads and coach against any team from now on. No excuses.
 

George

Moderator
Aug 17, 2015
22,905
73,011
Victoria
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
PHL Eagles, Liverpool Panathinaikos
The word “categorical” is the difference here, I think.

You’re saying that unless you can be certain, there’s no point thinking about it.

In my work life, I live constantly in grey areas. There’s never any certainty, even after the fact in most cases. (Did we do the right thing or did we just get lucky?)

So we deal almost entirely with likelihoods.

The Saints draw is likely to be more difficult than that of basically every other club. It might not turn out that way because it’s a complex system and there’s uncertainty, but the likelihood is that we end up with a tougher draw than everyone else.

That’s what everyone is discussing here. The likelihood, not the guaranteed outcome.
Ok
 

goodie23

Tragic Saint
Dec 25, 2006
6,934
5,301
Home
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
Australia, Victoria
Which teams above us have really improved from 2020?

Port - Added Aliir and Fantasia. Both help them improve but they are vulnerable. Their midfield still relies on 32yo Boak to do a bulk of the attacking play & their forward line was basically "Stop Dixon = Stop Port".

Brisbane - Added Daniher. If he is fit then they should improve but they also lost Stef Martin from the ruck. Oscar Mac is not anything close to a world beater so again, they have a weakness we can exploit.

Richmond - Added nothing. Their list hasn't changed so it's just a matter of how much Cotchin and JRoo have left in the tank. Kick straight and stop Tommy Lynch and we are in a prelim in 2020.

Geelong - Added Cameron, Shaun Higgins and Isaac Smith. They are all in on 2021. It's a team of half a dozen absolutely elite players backed up by next to no depth at all. Any drop in form or fitness and they are stuffed.

West Coast - Added Witherden and Langdon. Got a couple of fringe players but these aren't guys who you would expect to turn into AA level talents. Witherden is a great fantasy option but is he a better HBF option than Hurn and Duggan? Langdon a good mature small forward but I doubt he does a Butler in 2021.

I don't see any reason we can't split out games with this lot.

Give Brisbane the win at home and we go 4-5. Should beat the Swans twice though so we come out of our double ups/games against those above us at 6-6. That gives us the 10 games against all the clubs that finished below us to find 6 more wins and make finals again.

R1 - GWS - Away - 50/50
R2
- Melbourne - Home - 50/50
R3
- Essendon - Neutral - Win
R4
- WCE - Home - Win
R5
- Richmond - Home - Win
R6
- Port - Away - Loss
R7
- Hawthorn - Home - Win
R8
- GCS - Away - Win
R9
- Geelong - Home - Win
R10
- Bulldogs - Neutral - 50/50
R11
- North - Neutral - Win
R12
- Sydney - Home - Win
R13
- Adelaide - Neutral - Win
R14
- BYE
R15 - Richmond - Away - Loss
R16
- Collingwood - Away - Win
R17
- Brisbane - Away - Loss
R18
- Port - Home - Win
R19
- WCE - Away - Loss
R20
- Carlton - Home - Win
R21
- Sydney - Away - Win
R22
- Geelong - Away - Loss
R23
- Fremantle - Home - Win

That's 14 wins.

Defend our home deck, beat the teams we should beat, and we should have enough wiggle room to drop a couple of games against the likes of Melbourne, GWS & the Bulldogs all of who I think actually improved more than the teams above us.

Brown at Melbourne is exactly what they needed. Straightens them up tremendously.

Dogs midfield is insane. I don't see JUH doing anything in 2021 but Bruce will be getting a massive rev up during the preseason.

Giants will be better without Cameron. Yep, I said it. They will spread the load and actually become MORE dangerous without the lazy 'kick it to Cameron' play inside 50. If Hogan sorts out his sh*t then they are my tip to shoot back up the ladder.

Even losing these 3 games there is no reason we should be settling for anything less than another finals berth with a very good chance that it's a home final as well.
I think just as interesting are who the teams you listed lost/let go:

Port - Joe Atley (delisted), Wylie Buzza (delisted), Tobin Cox (delisted), Brad Ebert (retired), Riley Grundy (delisted), Jake Patmore (delisted), Cam Sutcliffe (delisted), Jack Watts (retired), Justin Westhoff (retired).
No trades, no serious losses.

Brisbane - Jacob Allison (delisted), Allen Christensen (retired), Cedric Cox (delisted), Matt Eagles (delisted), Mitch Hinge (Adelaide, delisted free agent), Corey Lyons (delisted), Stefan Martin (Western Bulldogs, trade), Sam Skinner (delisted), Alex Witherden (West Coast Eagles, trade), Toby Wooller (delisted).
Martin being traded out significantly weakens their ruck, Skinner and Eagles being delisted leaves them very thin on the ground for height. Witherden and Hinge are lost depth.

Richmond - Who has left: Derek Eggmolesse-Smith (delisted, likely to be re-signed), Luke English (delisted), Jack Higgins (St Kilda, trade), Oleg Markov (Gold Coast Suns, trade), Fraser Turner (delisted), Alex Rance (retired)
They've covered Rance, Higgins and Markov are players they'd have rather held onto but not significant losses.

Geelong - Gary Ablett (retired), Nakia Cockatoo (Brisbane Lions, trade), Lachie Fogarty (Carlton, trade), Jacob Kennerley (delisted), James Parsons (delisted), Blake Schlensog (delisted), Jack Steven (retired), Jake Tarca (delisted), Harry Taylor (retired)
Even though they were cooked, there's some big names going out as well as into the Cattery. In some ways Taylor is the biggest blow as they haven't brought in anyone who could fill his shoes and they have minimal coverage for talls down back. As good as their midfield is, they could get exposed in the ruck and then exposed down back.

West Coast - Hamish Brayshaw (delisted), Tom Hickey (Sydney, trade), Lewis Jetta (delisted), Mitch O’Neill (delisted), Nic Reid (delisted), Will Schofield (retired), Anthony Treacy (delisted), Francis Watson (delisted)
Hickey was handy depth, especially since back-up ruck Vardy didn't play a game and emerging tall Baily Williams only player 3 this year. A lot resting on 31 year old NicNat's shoulders.
 

George

Moderator
Aug 17, 2015
22,905
73,011
Victoria
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
PHL Eagles, Liverpool Panathinaikos
Glad you agree. So either treat it as a learning opportunity or continue to go through life with your black and white view, which will be pretty bad for you in a bunch of situations.
I don't agree, just couldn't be bothered continuing. Pretty condescending stuff from you, though. Life lessons 101 with bergholt from BigFooty, where disagreeing on the difficulty of a schedule can ultimately ruin your life. Made me laugh. Would hate to be the kind of person who holds a grudge over petty little things like merging threads though lol. Hope I'm wrong.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

bergholt

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 14, 2007
5,556
12,430
Brunswick
AFL Club
St Kilda
I don't agree, just couldn't be bothered continuing. Pretty condescending stuff from you, though. Life lessons 101 with bergholt from BigFooty, where disagreeing on the difficulty of a schedule can ultimately ruin your life. Made me laugh. Would hate to be the kind of person who holds a grudge over petty little things like merging threads though lol. Hope I'm wrong.
Wait, what's the grudge?
 

StCicatriz

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 3, 2016
22,925
46,431
AFL Club
St Kilda
R1 - GWS - Away - Win
R2 - Melbourne - Home - Win
R3 - Essendon - Neutral - Win
R4 - WCE - Home - Loss
R5 - Richmond - Home - Loss
R6 - Port - Away - Loss
R7 - Hawthorn - Home - Win
R8 - GCS - Away - Win
R9 - Geelong - Home - Loss
R10 - Bulldogs - Neutral - Loss
R11 - North - Neutral - Win
R12 - Sydney - Home - Win
R13 - Adelaide - Neutral - Win
R14 - BYE
R15 - Richmond - Away - Loss
R16 - Collingwood - Away - Win
R17 - Brisbane - Away - Loss
R18 - Port - Home - Loss
R19 - WCE - Away - Loss
R20 - Carlton - Home - Win
R21 - Sydney - Away - Win
R22 - Geelong - Away - Loss
R23 - Fremantle - Home - Win

Without looking at the day breaks each side gets thats how I have it. 12 wins. Not sure if its enough to play finals.

If we can get an upset against wce at home or the dogs in with a real shot.
 

Ricmel

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 13, 2009
5,530
4,712
AFL Club
St Kilda
I don’t think you can assess likely improvement in teams just based on who they gained/lost.
There will be teams like Port, Brisbane, Freo that are going to get significant improvement just by being a year older.

I feel like 2021 will be a year when there could be major change in the hierarchy. Even with the add of Cameron, I feel like Cats will be a slider, same with Pies, same with WCE. I think Richmond will be more gettable.

However expect Port and Brisbane to be stronger. Melbourne, Carlton, Freo to take steps up the ladder.

Who knows what GWS and Bulldogs will do. Both can stink it up both can play unbeatable footy.

2020 was such a strange year, teams with really experienced lists and structure over performed. Not sure that we have a great sight line on which clubs are going to perform in 2021.
 

PJays

All Australian
Nov 2, 2020
755
861
AFL Club
St Kilda
Absolutely horrible fixture.

Of course, hindsight will tell us exactly how bad it ends up being. If Father time hits the oldies at Richmond, Geelong, West Coast and Port, and they all drop 3 places on the ladder then it won't be so bad.

But from all appearances, and fair assumptions at this point, likely an incredibly tough draw.

But, keep hopeful Saints fans. You never know how we'll go.
 

puppy_dog7

Club Legend
Jul 29, 2007
2,577
5,297
AFL Club
St Kilda
I don’t think you can assess likely improvement in teams just based on who they gained/lost.
There will be teams like Port, Brisbane, Freo that are going to get significant improvement just by being a year older.

I feel like 2021 will be a year when there could be major change in the hierarchy. Even with the add of Cameron, I feel like Cats will be a slider, same with Pies, same with WCE. I think Richmond will be more gettable.

However expect Port and Brisbane to be stronger. Melbourne, Carlton, Freo to take steps up the ladder.

Who knows what GWS and Bulldogs will do. Both can stink it up both can play unbeatable footy.

2020 was such a strange year, teams with really experienced lists and structure over performed. Not sure that we have a great sight line on which clubs are going to perform in 2021.
I don’t feel as bullish on Port as you and some others. They rely heavily still on older guys like Boak, Gray, Ebert (retired), Hartlett, Dixon, Jonas and Rockliff. They do have good youngsters tho in duursma, butters, Rozee, Marshall, Ladhams etc. But if a couple of their older blokes drop off a little then they won’t be progressing too much. They also had a very easy fixture last year. They’ll be top 8 again, possibly top 4 but wouldn’t surprise me if they dropped a bit also.
 

lewdogs

Premium Platinum
Jun 4, 2008
5,693
16,608
WA
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
Arsenal, Portland Trailblazers
Will our pre season game in Perth go ahead? Must be a bit of scrambling going on behind the scenes in regard to the fixture.
 

PJays

All Australian
Nov 2, 2020
755
861
AFL Club
St Kilda
I don’t feel as bullish on Port as you and some others. They rely heavily still on older guys like Boak, Gray, Ebert (retired), Hartlett, Dixon, Jonas and Rockliff. They do have good youngsters tho in duursma, butters, Rozee, Marshall, Ladhams etc. But if a couple of their older blokes drop off a little then they won’t be progressing too much. They also had a very easy fixture last year. They’ll be top 8 again, possibly top 4 but wouldn’t surprise me if they dropped a bit also.
My thoughts exactly.

Port are the most overrated team in the AFL right now.

Very good chance of dropping from top 4.

Decent chance of dropping out of the 8, although they'd be more likely to stay between 5th-8th. They did add Fantasia and Allir and did play some good footy this year.
 

L_W_P

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 23, 2009
10,458
16,364
SE Suburbs
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
New Orleans Saints, Boston Celtics
WCE will be back up and running again. look at the run when at home vs away. they'll get that run at home again.
So much on the fitness of NicNat and how they play away from home.

If WA keep a hard border in place and the Perth teams are forced into hubs it could be another wasted year.
 

PostmanBish

All Australian
Sep 6, 2019
625
2,372
AFL Club
St Kilda
Absolutely horrible fixture.

Of course, hindsight will tell us exactly how bad it ends up being. If Father time hits the oldies at Richmond, Geelong, West Coast and Port, and they all drop 3 places on the ladder then it won't be so bad.

But from all appearances, and fair assumptions at this point, likely an incredibly tough draw.

But, keep hopeful Saints fans. You never know how we'll go.
If we can make finals, based on the estimated difficulty of the fixture, we should be hardened for finals footy, and afraid of nobody.

I remember reading Dick Vitale's autobiography, and his mentions of the way some college programs would "load up on cream-puffs" early in their schedule to increase their chances of making the NCAA tournament, and flame out when they had to play the good teams at the later stage.

Personally, apart from Geelong/Collingwood last year, I thought we played our some of our best fighting footy against the better teams, while making really hard work of the "should romp it in" games, so now we just have to do it a little bit more and a little bit better in 2021.
 

Remove this Banner Ad