2021 Giro D'Italia

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So their head to head history in terms of an ITT:

2016-2018: N/A

2019:

Paris-Nice: Yates won, Bernal +15"
Tour: Bernal +1'36", Yates +4'55"

2020: N/A

2021:

Tirreno Adriatico: Bernal +55", Yates +59"
Giro: Yates +38", Bernal +39"

So they're pretty even in all bar one head to head. That was Yates' second GT that year and was riding in support of Adam Yates IIRC. Yates probably needs to take back another 2 minutes to be any chance of beating him.
 
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The stage travels across the Po Plain, from north to south, on straight and mostly wide roads. As the stage passes through several urban areas, roundabouts, traffic islands and street furniture will be found along the route. A few undulations over the last 30 km will be the only topographical impediments.
Final kilometres
After descending from Canneto Pavese, the route continues almost straight to the finish in Stradella.
 
Such a long stage for this point of the Giro. Looks like a day for the breakaway unless Sagan really wants to win another stage and as well as the Ciclamino
He might decide to join the break
 
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new19profile.jpg This is the revised map and profile, excluding the climb to Mottarone due to the cable car tragedy.

A mountain stage featuring a succession of climbs, with lengthy false‑flat drags in between. The route travels the lowland around river Ticino, reaching the foot of the Mottarone. The roadway narrows, and past Armeno the route heads for Gignese, reaching the shore of Lake Maggiore in Stresa. The stage then continues along the lake, passes Gravellona Toce and Omegna, and clears the Passo della Colma. Past Varallo, the route continues along the valley floor up to the foot of the closing climb in Scopello.
Final kilometres
The final climb rises steadily at 9-10% for 10 km, with pitches maxing out at 14%. The road is quite wide, with a number of hairpins. The home straight is on tarmac road.
 
It'll be interesting to see if Yates can take back another minute+ that he needs to to be in with a chance of the overall win, or if Wednesday was just a bad day for Bernal
I'm not sure he needs 1 minute tonight but he needs to take 2 minutes before the TT IMO.
 
Just flicked on the race and it seems I've missed something interesting - it seems there's been a split in the peleton on 1st descent with Bernal's #1 domestique Dani Martinez got caught in the second group.

DQT has been trying to put the pressure on by riding hard at the top of the pink jersey group, and Ineos had to send Pippo Ganna back to help the 2nd group catch up
 

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Just flicked on the race and it seems I've missed something interesting - it seems there's been a split in the peleton on 1st descent with Bernal's #1 domestique Dani Martinez got caught in the second group.

DQT has been trying to put the pressure on by riding hard at the top of the pink jersey group, and Ineos had to send Pippo Ganna back to help the 2nd group catch up
Basically DQT and BEX colluded to attack downhill to catch Martinez out.
 
I think Bernal is in pain, his right side doesn't look fluent. He fought well but Martinez was enormous for him on the final climb. It's now just a question of how early do BEX go. 2 1/2 minutes looks too much.
They also need to put time into Caruso, who is pretty comfortably the best time trialist of the three. He can take a minute on Yates and even more on Bernal.
 
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A colossal Alpine stage, crossing over to Switzerland. After the start, the route passes the Swiss border to negotiate the never-ending San Bernardino Pass (24 km), clearing the summit above 2,000 metres. After the descent, the riders will rise again to over 2,000 metres, to negotiate the Splügen Pass. A technical descent (passing through a few tunnels and an avalanche gallery) will lead all the way to the foot of the closing climb in Campodolcino.
Final kilometres
The ramps are steep over the last 7 km. Past Campodolcino, the route ascends in hairpins, through a number of tunnels, up to Pianazzo, travelling the old, narrow road to Madesimo, with punishing gradients. After a relatively flat stretch in Madesimo, the route rises again with gradients nearing 10% over the last kilometres. The home straight is on tarmac road and on a slight incline.
 
Considering he only gained 28 seconds last night, if Yates is to gain the 2mins+ on both Bernal and Caruso he needs to win the Maglia Rosa, I think he'll have to attack on the 2nd climb and hope to go solo (or at least starting gaining distance on those two) from there
 

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