Analysis 2021 Goals from Free Kicks

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Interesting comparison.
Frees for: Dixon 38, Daniher 29, Darling 29, Mckay 27, Franklin 24, Walker 20, Naughton 19, Ben King 18, Max King 17, Lynch 17, Kennedy 14, Riewoldt 12, Hawkins 12.

Big difference between 38 for Dixon and Riewoldt/Hawkiins 12.
McKay, high middle, but the really taller players tend to get a few more, besides Darling.

No surprise that Dixon is top of the list. Just about every single contest he’s involved in he’s battling against 2 or 3 defenders and is always held simply due to his size.

If we’re being honest, his numbers should be a lot higher.
 
Well given he has more than double a similar sized and similar role player in Lynch has, then a lot higher is a bit of a stretch. You reckon Hawkins and Riewoldt don't get scragged, they have 12 for the season.
 
Tigers (2) v Hawks (2)
Tigers (0) v Port (3)
Tigers (1) v Giants (2)
Tigers (2) v Eagles (2)
Tigers (1) v Dockers (1)
Tigers (2) v Suns (3)
Tigers (0) v Magpies (3)

Not too bad overall considering.

Given Richmond’s goals from free kicks stands at 8 v 16 across these 7 closest matches, at a higher ratio of against v for frees than even the mind boggling overall free kick count in those matches of 105 v 157, it is imo very very bad.

Curiously also, Richmond did not have a goals from free kicks surplus in any of those 7 matches. The chances of this occurring at random across 7 matches - given two teams with equal free kick expectations - would be around or under 10% likelihood at best. If you simply levelled up the goals from frees in these 7 closest games and even left the general free kick count as skewed as it was, all else being equal it changes the result of 2 of those matches.

SO the effect of free kicks has had a massive impact on the Tigers win column this season. Whether Richmond were fairly adjudicated or not is another question of course, but the free kick deficit alone seems to have accounted for more than half of the club’s matches won deficit when compared to other recent years.
 
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Given Richmond’s goals from free kicks stands at 8 v 16 across these 7 closest matches, at a higher ration of against v for frees than even the mind boggling overall free kick count in those matches of 105 v 157, it is imo very very bad.

Curiously also, Richmond did not have a goals from free kicks surplus in any of those 7 matches. The chances of this occurring at random across 7 matches - given two teams with equal free kick expectations - would be around or under 10% likelihood at best. If you simply levelled up the goals from frees in these 7 closest games and even left the general free kick count as skewed as it was, all else being equal it changes the result of 2 of those matches.

SO the effect of free kicks has had a massive impact on the Tigers win column this season. Whether Richmond were fairly adjudicated or not is another question of course, but the free kick deficit alone seems to have accounted for more than half of the club’s matches won deficit when compared to other recent years.
You misinterpreted my meaning of "not too bad".




I thought we'd be much worse off haha
 
Well given he has more than double a similar sized and similar role player in Lynch has, then a lot higher is a bit of a stretch. You reckon Hawkins and Riewoldt don't get scragged, they have 12 for the season.

Can only speak for Hawkins, but I don't see it as a massive issue.

Hawkins plays back shoulder often meaning he won't be infringed, he also looks for body contact early which makes him much harder to adjudicate. Both things make him incredibly effective but less likely to win free kicks.

The free kick against stat is also pretty obvious. He initiates body contact, lacks discipline, gets frustrated and is a bit of a campaigner. I think it's a little bit too high, but hardly unreasonable.
 
There are certainly ways to draw a free kick, especially in a tackle. Also no chance of being called for a throw, mostly.
 
Our figures are probably skewed by Cordy not being able to stick to his opponent for long enough to give away the free
 
Can only speak for Hawkins, but I don't see it as a massive issue.

Hawkins plays back shoulder often meaning he won't be infringed, he also looks for body contact early which makes him much harder to adjudicate. Both things make him incredibly effective but less likely to win free kicks.

The free kick against stat is also pretty obvious. He initiates body contact, lacks discipline, gets frustrated and is a bit of a campaigner. I think it's a little bit too high, but hardly unreasonable.
No I have no problem with Hawkins in particular, as we both acknowledge he makes a lot of body contact. Not sure why Riewoldt has so few, and gives away so many (24 Riewoldt, 33 Hawkiins) not exactly a scragger, but overall more a commentary on Port supporter wanting more free's for a player that is comfortably in front in the free's category. Both are campaigners I guess, as opposed to angelic Dixon.
 
Great work OP. Also some nice contributions from others.

Unfortunately, most statistical lists lead to more questions. The main one for me is what were the free kicks for? How many were high contact or a push in the back, etc(ball in possession), holds, blocks, chops of arms, etc (ball in dispute) and tackle related, etc(ball in opposition possession)? So the 3 groups.
 
No I have no problem with Hawkins in particular, as we both acknowledge he makes a lot of body contact. Not sure why Riewoldt has so few, and gives away so many (24 Riewoldt, 33 Hawkiins) not exactly a scragger, but overall more a commentary on Port supporter wanting more free's for a player that is comfortably in front in the free's category. Both are campaigners I guess, as opposed to angelic Dixon.

Yeh, agreed on Dixon. He earns his frees, but in no world is he hard done by.
 
No I have no problem with Hawkins in particular, as we both acknowledge he makes a lot of body contact. Not sure why Riewoldt has so few, and gives away so many (24 Riewoldt, 33 Hawkiins) not exactly a scragger, but overall more a commentary on Port supporter wanting more free's for a player that is comfortably in front in the free's category. Both are campaigners I guess, as opposed to angelic Dixon.
Only my observation but Hawkins gets involved in the play, outside of marking contests, Riewoldt is not as big and often jumps early giving away frees. Not so confident Dixon does these to the same level.
Just compared their stats for 2021. I was wrong. Dixon = Umpire:hearteyes:
 
Only my observation but Hawkins gets involved in the play, outside of marking contests, Riewoldt is not as big and often jumps early giving away frees. Not so confident Dixon does these to the same level.
Just compared their stats for 2021. I was wrong. Dixon = Umpire:hearteyes:
Yes Jack and Hawk give away frees as you mentioned, but they don't get many.
 

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tabulated EVERY SINGLE GOAL from the 2021 season and counted how many came DIRECTLY from free kicks.

So you're saying that you've watched every single game for season 2021, tabled every single goal for both sides and determined which ones were directly a result from free kicks? If you did that, fair effort, show an example of any H&A game that substantiates the data analysis.

I didn't count goals that came INDIRECTLY from frees, because they're much harder to work out. I.e. a player gets a free kick on the wing, chips it sideways to a teammate who kicks it forwards, ball is marked and a goal is then kicked. It's much too hard to work out how far back you need to go to determine if the free kick actually resulted in a goal.

Unless you baseline the data from a certain amount of possessions after the free and before the goal you'd be counting a vast majority of goals this season
 
So you're saying that you've watched every single game for season 2021, tabled every single goal for both sides and determined which ones were directly a result from free kicks? If you did that, fair effort, show an example of any H&A game that substantiates the data analysis.



Unless you baseline the data from a certain amount of possessions after the free and before the goal you'd be counting a vast majority of goals this season
He only looked at goals kicked (not total shots), and only from frees paid (no count of missed frees, or frees that were incorrectly paid), which is why this thread is pointless. You can't draw any meaningful conclusion from incomplete data like this.
 
I counted it because the player who got the free was going to have a shot for goal anyway. Secondly, advantage is often taken closer to goal when a player typically strolls into an open goalsquare, so the original kick would be from a very gettable position. The second half of your post sorta proves this.
My point is that a goal from a player taking the advantage is not one that directly results from the free kick because 90% of the time a goal would be the result regardless if the free kick was paid or not.
 
Interesting comparison.
Frees for: Dixon 38, Daniher 29, Darling 29, Mckay 27, Franklin 24, Walker 20, Naughton 19, Ben King 18, Max King 17, Lynch 17, Kennedy 14, Riewoldt 12, Hawkins 12.

Big difference between 38 for Dixon and Riewoldt/Hawkiins 12.
McKay, high middle, but the really taller players tend to get a few more, besides Darling.
For some reason Kennedy (WC) doesn't get many frees, or doesn't get as many as he should, has been absolutely molested over the years. Harry Taylor used to blatantly tackle him while he was attempting to mark the ball to cries of "play on".
 
For some reason Kennedy (WC) doesn't get many frees, or doesn't get as many as he should, has been absolutely molested over the years. Harry Taylor used to blatantly tackle him while he was attempting to mark the ball to cries of "play on".
So the best traditional FF's, Kennedy, Hawkins and Riewoldt don't get free's. 14, 12 and 12. Odd. Maybe the ump's have seen enough?
 
Excellent work!

Not expecting you to do this but it would be interesting to see what the types of frees were. I’ve long wondered if Richmonds negative free kick differential is a result of their high intense tackling style of game. The more often and harder you tackle the more likely you are to give away frees being my theory but I have no idea if the numbers reflect that.
 
He only looked at goals kicked (not total shots), and only from frees paid (no count of missed frees, or frees that were incorrectly paid), which is why this thread is pointless. You can't draw any meaningful conclusion from incomplete data like this.

And so it is that those slaves in greatest poverty are blamed for the failings of their fat masters.

It seems you believe he who first harnessed electricity did so pointlessly because he did not also present the world with a flawless working grid.

You who can see what lacks from the toils of others, let us see the fruits of your labours.

Data is not rendered meaningless because it fails to be what it is not. It is what it is my friend Alesana, and where an inspired mind may find clear meaning in a humble pebble, one with no imagination may look at the stars and see nothing of value. 😁
 
And so it is that those slaves in greatest poverty are blamed for the failings of their fat masters.

It seems you believe he who first harnessed electricity did so pointlessly because he did not also present the world with a flawless working grid.

You who can see what lacks from the toils of others, let us see the fruits of your labours.

Data is not rendered meaningless because it fails to be what it is not. It is what it is my friend Alesana, and where an inspired mind may find clear meaning in a humble pebble, one with no imagination may look at the stars and see nothing of value. 😁
1630572545916.jpeg
 
And so it is that those slaves in greatest poverty are blamed for the failings of their fat masters.

It seems you believe he who first harnessed electricity did so pointlessly because he did not also present the world with a flawless working grid.

You who can see what lacks from the toils of others, let us see the fruits of your labours.

Data is not rendered meaningless because it fails to be what it is not. It is what it is my friend Alesana, and where an inspired mind may find clear meaning in a humble pebble, one with no imagination may look at the stars and see nothing of value. 😁
Poetry
 
He only looked at goals kicked (not total shots), and only from frees paid (no count of missed frees, or frees that were incorrectly paid), which is why this thread is pointless. You can't draw any meaningful conclusion from incomplete data like this.
It's much easier to criticise than do any actual work of your own huh?

Again, I never made any claims that the data presented covered every possibility, and could have conclusions drawn seamlessly. I'm simply presenting it and letting people work out meaning for themselves. I still think it's very interesting that Carlton (who finished 13th) kicked 27 more goals from frees than Richmond (who finished 12th), and also gave away 10 less from frees.
 
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