Prediction 2021 GWS Board Mock AFL National Draft

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Giant Strides

Moderator
Nov 23, 2015
6,952
9,461
AFL Club
GWS
2021 National Draft Selections

1. North Melbourne - Jason Horne-Francis (SA)
2. Western Bulldogs - Sam Darcy (VM), matching a bid from GWS Giants
3. Collingwood - Nick Daicos (VM), matching a bid from GWS Giants
4. Hawthorn - Finn Callaghan (VM)
5. Gold Coast Suns - Josh Ward (VM)
6. Adelaide - Ben Hobbs (VC)
7. GWS Giants - Mac Andrew (VC) **plus Hawthorn's 2022 first round selection**
8. Fremantle - Neil Erasmus (WA)
9. Richmond - Josh Gibcus (VC)
10. Fremantle - Tyler Sonsie (VM)
11. St Kilda - Josh Rachele (VC)
12. West Coast Eagles - Matt Johnson (WA)
13. Essendon - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (SA)
14. Port Adelaide - Arlo Draper
15. GWS Giants - Jye Amiss (WA)
16. Brisbane Lions - Matt Roberts (SA)
17. Richmond - Josh Sinn (VM)
18. Sydney Swans - Campbell Chesser (VC)
19. Melbourne - Michito Owens (VM)
20. Brisbane Lions - Jacob Van Rooyen (WA)

21. Fremantle - Josh Goater (VM)
22. North Melbourne - Darcy Wilmot (VM)
23. Hawthorn - Jack Williams (WA)
24. Geelong Cats - Josh Browne (WA)
25. Hawthorn - Sam Butler (VC)
26. GWS - Josh Fahey (NSW), matching a bid from Carlton
27. Carlton - Zac Taylor (VM)
28. Richmond - Mitch Knevitt (VC)
29. Richmond - Leek Alleer (SA)
30. West Coast Eagles - Blake Howes (VM)
31. Geelong Cats - Rhett Bazzo (WA)
32. Sydney Swans - Judson Clarke (VC)
33. Geelong Cats - Corey Warner (WA)
34. Adelaide - Jesse Motlop (WA)
35. Geelong Cats - Toby Conway (VC)
36. West Coast Eagles - Angus Sheldrick (WA)
37. Melbourne - Tom Brown (VC)
38. Richmond - Connor Macdonald (VC)
39. Melbourne - Taj Woewodin (WA), matching a bid by Sydney Swans
40. Sydney Swans - Braden Andrews (VM)

41. Richmond - Cooper Murley (SA)
42. Brisbane Lions - Paul Curtis (VC)
43. North Melbourne - Lachlan Rankin (VM)
44. North Melbourne - Brady Hough (WA)
45. Geelong Cats - Lachie Paton (WA)
46. St Kilda - Marcus Windhager (VM), matching a bid by Essendon
47. Essendon - Blake Schlensog (WA)
48. Brisbane - pass due to list spots
49. Collingwood - Ned Long (VM)
50. Essendon - Jamieson Ballantyne (VC)
51. Melbourne - James Tunstill (WA)
52. Collingwood - James Willis (SA)
53. Hawthorn - Miller Bergman (VC)
54. Brisbane - pass due to list spots
55. Fremantle - Kade Dittmar (WA)
56. Port Adelaide - Charlie Dean (VFL)
57. Carlton - Sam Breuer (VC)
58. Hawthorn - Sam Banks (Tas)
59. Western Bulldogs - Charlie Molan (VC)
60. St Kilda - Hugh Stagg (SA)
61. Collingwood - Ronald Fejo jnr (NT)
62. St Kilda - Jake Soligo (VM)
63. Melbourne (*pick 44 remnant from matching Taj Woewodin) - pass due to list spots
64. West Coast Eagles - Morgan Ferres (SA)
65. Fremantle - pass, leaving a spot vacant on main list
66. Sydney Swans - Joshua Cripps (WA)
67. St Kilda (* pick 55 remnant from Marcus Windhager) - pass, leaving a spot vacant on main list
68. Port Adelaide - Jase Burgoyne (SA), matching a bid by North Melbourne
69. North Melbourne - Anthony Caminiti (VM)
70. Port Adelaide - pass, leaving a spot vacant on main list
71. Adelaide - Arthur Jones (WA)

Expended picks moved to the back of the draft:
Western Bulldogs
Western Bulldogs
Western Bulldogs
Collingwood
Collingwood
GWS Giants

Selectors:

Adelaide - Andre the Giant
Brisbane - JC100
Carlton - Determinant
Collingwood - Giant Strides
Essendon - fridgeman
Fremantle - GWS Goose
Geelong - Orange crush
Gold Coast - GWS Goose
GWS - JC100
Hawthorn - Danny88
Melbourne - PMBangers
North Melbourne - PMBangers
Port Adelaide - fridgeman
Richmond - Andre the Giant
St Kilda - Determinant
Sydney - Danny88
West Coast - Orange crush
Western Bulldogs - Giant Strides
 
Last edited:

Giant Strides

Moderator
Nov 23, 2015
6,952
9,461
AFL Club
GWS
Hi everyone,

So, we've been instantly transported forward to the night of the National Draft (ND) and about to commence selections. We will assume no pick trades have taken place since the end of the player trade period. (So, if any pick trades occur in the real world during our mock draft, we're just going to ignore them.) The draft list is below - out to 4 rounds, which also shows the points & academy/father-son reductions, using Lore's spreadsheet. I will also place a simpler version of the draft order in the second entry of this thread, and pin that as the rolling order (which will obviously then change for any matched bids) to be filled in as the mock draft progresses. I'm only going to 4 rounds as list spots start becoming significantly opaque after that, and the media reporting indicates only around 60 picks are likely to be taken so no point going too far.

I've spent this evening going through club lists & comparing to the draft pick list to see how it stacks up. There are a small number of anomalies, which I'll describe below and how we'll manage those:
  • GWS will go to the draft with 5 open spots, so should have 5 picks, but our fifth pick would be at #89 (which has no points attached) so I'm not going to worry about that.
  • Lions currently show as 6 picks, but all indications are that they'll only have spots for 3 picks. In real life, they'll probably trade the remainder before ND night, either into earlier picks or the 2022 draft. However, for our mock draft, I'm only going to cancel their 6th pick (#76), which is the last pick of the 4 rounds. It simulates an aggressive delist-to-rookie list strategy that they could take (but most likely won't). That would allow the Brisbane selector to do some trades if they want.
  • 3 clubs probably need more picks than Lore's spreadsheet shows based on what I believe are their current playing rosters - Essendon (2 more), St Kilda (2 spots) and Port (1 spot). Those picks are all in the 80s, and I don't expect those clubs will actually use them. They will likely only go to 36 main list spots, or pick up a DFA. Again, because they are beyond the 4 rounds I'm limiting us to, and those picks don't have any points attached for matching, I'm not going to include them.
  • Suns only have the single pick (#3). Assume they plan to pre-list 1 or 2 GCS academy kids and don't need extra selections. However, I will allow the GCS selector to trade their pick #3 for 2 later picks in this ND should they wish, and take either 1 or 2 picks.
  • Carlton only has 2 picks inside the 4 rounds, their 3rd is later. Similarly, since they are tight on list spots and I expect they'll only take 2 for real, we'll accept that and only give them the 2 picks.
If anyone really has a beef about something in those restrictions, please PM me, but I'm just trying to simplify the process for the state of play we're starting from i.e. we don't have the finalised official AFL selection list.

Rules

The start clock for pick #1 will begin ticking at 0800 on Saturday morning, 16 October. That will give all of the selectors a little time to absorb the plan, and also if anyone wants to get trading before the actual start. So, the deadline to make the first selection is 0800 Sunday morning (but hopefully doesn't take that long for the first choice!).

Starting with the #1 pick, make your selection and post it in this thread. I would like you to write a brief description of why you chose this player for your adopted team. You may use descriptions from any of the BF draftwatchers, such as PMBangers, but I'm more after why they are the best fit for the choosing team. If you don't do it at the time, could you please come back and amend your post to include it later when you have time.

When you post the selection, please tag (i.e. @ before their username) the next picker, so they get a prompt to come here and make their selection. I will allow the next selector 24 hours to make their choice: if not received in that time, I will step in and make the choice.

We will have bidding on father-son and academy selections. If you wish to bid, tag in the selector for the team who 'owns' the desired so they know that they're on the clock to decide whether to match. They will have 24 hours to make a decision whether to match or not. If they don't decide in that time, I'll step in and make the choice (based on my view of whether the team really would or wouldn't at that point.) Please tag me into bids and also matches.

If a bid is matched, I'll calculate the points required, and picks used and reset the order. I'll keep an eye out for the need to do this, but just give me a little time to get to it (I still have a day job, and I'm coming out of lockdown tomorrow!)

We will also have pick trading during the game. Make the offer in the thread to the team's selector (tagging them) so we can all see it. (However, no other selector can jump in and try to steal the trade.) You may also put a pick up for auction to the highest bidder. However, any trades need to be completed before any deadline runs out. i.e. a selection deadline won't be extended just to allow for a trade to be run and finalised. Future pick trading is allowed.

I would like selectors to be realistic about who they pick, not to derive a particular outcome either for GWS or another club. If you are selecting for two teams, and bidding or trading, please be realistic and don't make unlikely bargains (e.g. trade pick #1 for picks #59 & #69).

Otherwise, have fun.

RoundPickOriginal PickClubPointsWith Discount
Round 11North Melbourne30002400
Round 12GWS Giants25172014
Round 13Gold Coast Suns22341787
Round 14Adelaide20341627
Round 15Hawthorn18781502
Round 16Fremantle17511401
Round 17Richmond16441315
Round 18Fremantle15511241
Round 19St Kilda14691175
Round 110West Coast Eagles13951116
Round 111Essendon13291063
Round 112Port Adelaide12681014
Round 113GWS Giants1212970
Round 114Brisbane Lions1161929
Round 115Richmond1112890
Round 116Sydney Swans1067854
Round 117Melbourne1025820
Round 118Brisbane Lions985788
Priority Pick19Fremantle948751
Round 220North Melbourne912715
Round 221Hawthorn878681
Round 222Geelong Cats845648
Round 223Western Bulldogs815618
Round 224Hawthorn785588
Round 225Carlton756559
Round 226Richmond729532
Round 227Collingwood703506
Round 228Richmond677480
Round 229West Coast Eagles653456
Round 230Geelong Cats629432
Round 231Sydney Swans606409
Round 232Geelong Cats584387
Round 233Adelaide563366
Round 234Geelong Cats542345
Round 235West Coast Eagles522325
Round 236Collingwood502305
Round 237Melbourne483286
Compensation Pick38Richmond465268
Compensation Pick39Sydney Swans446249
Round 340Richmond429232
Round 341Brisbane Lions412215
Round 342North Melbourne395198
Round 343Western Bulldogs378181
Compensation Pick44Western Bulldogs362165
Round 345Western Bulldogs347150
Round 346Collingwood331134
Round 347North Melbourne316119
Round 348Collingwood302105
Round 349Melbourne28790
Round 350Geelong Cats27376
Round 351Essendon25962
Round 352Western Bulldogs24649
Round 353GWS Giants23336
Round 354Brisbane Lions22023
Round 355Collingwood20710
Round 356Essendon1940
Round 357Melbourne1820
Round 358Collingwood1700
Round 459Hawthorn1580
Round 460Brisbane Lions1460
Round 461Fremantle1350
Round 462St Kilda1230
Round 463Port Adelaide1120
Round 464Carlton1010
Round 465Hawthorn900
Round 466St Kilda800
Round 467St Kilda690
Round 468West Coast Eagles590
Round 469Fremantle490
Round 470Sydney Swans390
Round 471GWS Giants290
Round 472North Melbourne190
Round 473Port Adelaide90
Round 474Port Adelaide00
Round 475Adelaide00
 

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PMBangers

@Headless approved!
Nov 7, 2017
20,286
35,574
Melbourne
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Other Teams
Manchester City, Collingwood AFLW
I've spent this evening going through club lists & comparing to the draft pick list to see how it stacks up. There are a small number of anomalies, which I'll describe below and how we'll manage those:
Just to be an absolute pain in the bum, could you PM me any other inconsistencies? Would like to get it right for the Bigfooty Draft
 

PMBangers

@Headless approved!
Nov 7, 2017
20,286
35,574
Melbourne
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Other Teams
Manchester City, Collingwood AFLW
I'll go now so when I sleep in I don't hold things up

Pick 1 - North Melbourne - Jason Horne-Francis
Midfielder/ General Forward
184 cm 78 kg
JasonHorne1.jpg

Stand Out Attributes:
Strength, Explosive Power, Scoreboard Impact, Defensive Workrate
Rationale: No surprise to anyone that's even half paid attention to the draft over the past 12 months that Jason ends up at North Melbourne as the best 'open' prospect in the pool, and by some margin. Jason has been billed up to be a lot of things "The best junior prospect since Bryce Gibbs", "Dangerfield Clone", etc. he's earnt every positive praise any junior prospect could, and it's all been deserved of course.

Jason will be a Round 1 starter for North melbourne next year and could realistically be in their starting midfield rotation, such is his readiness to play at the next level. With his genuine explosive athleticism and relentless hunt of the ball he's going to be a great player, brining a lot of those traditional shinboner qualities and traits with him, as well as class with his ball use, he's a well rounded prospect for a rebuilding club.

Bottom line is that there's no reason to doubt that Jason will be a good player at the next level, despite being light on he's played seniors since he was 17 and hasn't looked out of place, his gameplay has been a step above most at that level as well. He's earnt some generous comparisons through his journey, I could see him having a Joel Selwood type of career and game style with better ball use and better forward half impact

JC100
 

JC100

All Australian
Jan 2, 2015
912
925
AFL Club
GWS
Pick 2: Sam Darcy
Best position: Key forward
Height, weight: 205cm, 77kg

Strengths: Instinctive finisher around goal, one grab contested marking, attack on ball aerially, ability to play foward, back or in the ruck
Rationale: In a draft lacking in the way of premier talls, Darcy is the standard of excellence. Given his rapid rate of improvement and mix of rare attributes at his height, he is one of this draft's highest upside choices for the long term.

Long term KPP to build an attack around who can provide minutes in the ruck.
 

JC100

All Australian
Jan 2, 2015
912
925
AFL Club
GWS
Pick 3: Nick Daicos
Best position: General midfield
Height, weight: 183cm, 72kg

Strength: Decision Making, Agility, Evasion, Scoreboard impact, decision making, composure, stoppage work

Rationale: Had the NAB League season continued, Daicos may still be No. 1. The debate around the real #1 has been hotly debated all year and it should come as no surprise with no meaningful separation between the two young stars. Daicos is the more productive of the pair and finds the football at will around the ground, but defensively while much improved over his last month of his season, he isn't nearly on the same level, with his impact per possession also the lower of the pair.

Would have an impact straight away and add something different to the mix at GWS
 

Giant Strides

Moderator
Nov 23, 2015
6,952
9,461
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GWS
Pick 2: Sam Darcy
Best position: Key forward
Height, weight: 205cm, 77kg

Strengths: Instinctive finisher around goal, one grab contested marking, attack on ball aerially, ability to play foward, back or in the ruck
Rationale: In a draft lacking in the way of premier talls, Darcy is the standard of excellence. Given his rapid rate of improvement and mix of rare attributes at his height, he is one of this draft's highest upside choices for the long term.

Long term KPP to build an attack around who can provide minutes in the ruck.
OK, we have a bid on Sam Darcy at pick #2, which I think is a good chance of happening for real.

As the Western Bulldogs selector, I am matching the bid in a heartbeat. Gil may take a little longer to announce it for the theatre.

Back to GWS for selection.
 

PMBangers

@Headless approved!
Nov 7, 2017
20,286
35,574
Melbourne
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GWS
Other Teams
Manchester City, Collingwood AFLW
OK, we have a bid on Sam Darcy at pick #2, which I think is a good chance of happening for real.

As the Western Bulldogs selector, I am matching the bid in a heartbeat. Gil may take a little longer to announce it for the theatre.

Back to GWS for selection.
We haven't even had 5 minutes for interviews, then a further 10 minutes for Luke Darcy highlights
 

Giant Strides

Moderator
Nov 23, 2015
6,952
9,461
AFL Club
GWS
Pick 3: Nick Daicos
Best position: General midfield
Height, weight: 183cm, 72kg

Strength: Decision Making, Agility, Evasion, Scoreboard impact, decision making, composure, stoppage work

Rationale: Had the NAB League season continued, Daicos may still be No. 1. The debate around the real #1 has been hotly debated all year and it should come as no surprise with no meaningful separation between the two young stars. Daicos is the more productive of the pair and finds the football at will around the ground, but defensively while much improved over his last month of his season, he isn't nearly on the same level, with his impact per possession also the lower of the pair.

Would have an impact straight away and add something different to the mix at GWS
And with my Collingwood selector's hat on, I will match the bid on Daicos in a heartbeat.

Back to JC100 for the GWS selection, now at number 4.

And with my AFL House hat on, I'll now do some number crunching on draft picks used and draft order change!
 

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JC100

All Australian
Jan 2, 2015
912
925
AFL Club
GWS
Following an interview with Daicos about how happy he is to get to Collingwood and continue the family association with the club...

Pick 4 - open to auction - please submit your best offers
 

JC100

All Australian
Jan 2, 2015
912
925
AFL Club
GWS
Are we allowing live trading?
We will also have pick trading during the game. Make the offer in the thread to the team's selector (tagging them) so we can all see it. (However, no other selector can jump in and try to steal the trade.) You may also put a pick up for auction to the highest bidder. However, any trades need to be completed before any deadline runs out. i.e. a selection deadline won't be extended just to allow for a trade to be run and finalised.
 

Giant Strides

Moderator
Nov 23, 2015
6,952
9,461
AFL Club
GWS
Western Bulldogs matched the GWS bid on Sam Darcy at #2.

Requires 2014 points, so Western Bulldogs expend picks #23 (815 pts), #43 (378), #44 (362), #45 (347) and from #52 (246 pts available) 112 points are used leaving 134 points, which will slot back in at pick #62 when other picks move up.
 

Giant Strides

Moderator
Nov 23, 2015
6,952
9,461
AFL Club
GWS
Collingwood matched the GWS bid on Nick Daicos at #3.

Requires 1787 points, so Collingwood expends picks #27 (703 pts), #36 (502), #43 previously #46 before the WB match (378) and from #45 previously #48 (347 pts available), 204 points are used, leaving 143 points, which will slot back at #61.

Collingwood keep pick #51 (previously #55) & #54 (previously #58). (They will move earlier when the expended picks are removed).
 

Giant Strides

Moderator
Nov 23, 2015
6,952
9,461
AFL Club
GWS
Please note that the draft order pinned to this thread is updated as of this post (Sat @ 11:15 am).

A lot of movement in the late second and middle of third round as previous Dogs & Pies picks have been expended.

The 5 expended picks (3 x Dogs, 2 x Pies) have moved to the end of the draft. You'll note that I haven't assigned pick numbers to them as there are a few picks likely for other clubs beyond the four draft rounds that I've limited us to. However, I'm picking for Dogs & Pies so I'll deal with that.

Obviously, for any teams thinking about the GWS sale of now pick #4, there is a revised order and pick values.
 

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