List Mgmt. 2021 List Management: Draft, Trade, Free Agency and Academy

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Freomaniac

Brownlow Medallist
May 3, 2007
22,956
12,028
Parts Unknown
AFL Club
Fremantle
Other Teams
Man City, Valencia, Lazio, Panthers
Unless Cerra bombs the rest of the year, which I doubt, I’d be pissed if we didn’t get a pick around 5 if he left. He’s pretty much exactly what you expect from a top 5 pick except you get to skip the first 60 games of development. I understand the top 5 this year is rated real high and as uncontracted we’d be up sh*t creek but it didn’t seem to matter for what Essendon got for Saad (which was ludicrous IMO)
He is out of contract this season.... Good luck getting pick 5. if he was contracted, sure let the team pay overs.

Saints paid way overs for Brad Hill. WE got Brad Hill on a 5 year deal at $2.5 million over 5 years. $700,000 for the 1st 2 years, then $500,000 for year 3 and had he stayed on years 4 and 5, he would only be on $300,000 a year.

Saints caught wind of this and offered $900,000 a year for 5 or 6 years. They were that desperate that they offered Pick 10, pick 58, Blake Acres, a 2020 2nd and 2020 4th rounder. Freo originally wanted 2 1st rounders for Brad Hill. I didnt think the saints would do that. I was happy with that trade in the end. Considering the saints only got Brad Hill and a 3rd rounder.

I think theres a lesson. If you hand a 5 year deal to a player and its heavily front loaded for the 1st 2 years and they are on peanuts on years 4-5 and they play good footy, that play is going to complain. Say if Brad Hills contract was bascially $500,000 each year for 5 years. Would the saints still look at him? Probably.
 

Madas

Team Captain
Aug 16, 2020
564
767
AFL Club
Fremantle
I understand the concept but you would think the dogs would want a lot for English
They wouldn't let him go
They've got a 2 - 3 year window with the well balanced list they've got now .
I'd stick with Meek for what would be asked from the Dogs
Rather chase a red hot forward and a young Ruck with whatever capital we can scrape together
 

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theGav56

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 11, 2004
22,753
18,879
Bali
AFL Club
Fremantle
Other Teams
Fremantle
Say we got around pick 8 for Cerra and had pick 20 we could trade into the top 3 😬
Unlikely. And your maths (pick 20) is wonky unless you think we are finishing bottom 2. But pick 8 is well placed for us.
Pick 7 Johnson (my prediction for our first pick, based on sfa)
Pick 8 van Rooyen
Pick 25ish Bazzo/Williams/Erasmus
 
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wakojako

Team Captain
Nov 15, 2020
328
347
AFL Club
Fremantle
Unlikely. And your maths (pick 20) is wonky unless you think we are finishing bottom 2. But pick 8 is well placed for us.
Pick 7 Johnson (my prediction for our first pick, based on sfa)
Pick 8 van Rooyen
Pick 25ish Bazzo/Williams/Erasmus
The draft calculator days pick 8 and pick 20 is equivalent to pick 3
 

Freomaniac

Brownlow Medallist
May 3, 2007
22,956
12,028
Parts Unknown
AFL Club
Fremantle
Other Teams
Man City, Valencia, Lazio, Panthers
How do we have pick 20? We would have to have finished bottom 2 or more likely, stone cold last.
Yeah.....

Or we finish 16th like we did it in 2016 and get pick 21.....

If we somehow finish 16th this season, I want at least 6-7 wins not 4. And not go 0-10 again in which we wont.
 

Dockeroo

Club Legend
Nov 1, 2019
2,289
4,838
AFL Club
Fremantle
The draft calculator days pick 8 and pick 20 is equivalent to pick 3
It’s enjoyable to speculate on trades and draft picks. But you need to get a bit more up to speed on realistic values as your current estimates of potential trades are miles off. Firstly - forget the points value calculator once you enter the top 10 or 12 picks. To move from 8 to 3 is borderline impossible in a strong draft year like this. at the very least I’d say you’d have to hand over a 2022 first round pick, plus this years second round pick (say pick 25) and pick 8, all to buy pick 3.
There’s actually precedent involving ourselves back in 2016. GWS moved from pick 7 to our pick 3, and in exchange we got pick 7, pick 34, pick 72 & Cam McCarthy (who was valued at about a late first round pick at the time from memory).
We selected Logue, Sean Darcy and used pick 72 in a packaged up separate deal to secure Luke Ryan.
 

Docker82

Premiership Player
Jun 21, 2013
4,275
5,337
Perth
AFL Club
Fremantle
Yeah.....

Or we finish 16th like we did it in 2016 and get pick 21.....

If we somehow finish 16th this season, I want at least 6-7 wins not 4. And not go 0-10 again in which we wont.
Considering we’ve already won a game going 0-10 would be pretty difficult.

We’ll be a different side at home. Won’t finish bottom four imo.
 

wakojako

Team Captain
Nov 15, 2020
328
347
AFL Club
Fremantle
It’s enjoyable to speculate on trades and draft picks. But you need to get a bit more up to speed on realistic values as your current estimates of potential trades are miles off. Firstly - forget the points value calculator once you enter the top 10 or 12 picks. To move from 8 to 3 is borderline impossible in a strong draft year like this. at the very least I’d say you’d have to hand over a 2022 first round pick, plus this years second round pick (say pick 25) and pick 8, all to buy pick 3.
There’s actually precedent involving ourselves back in 2016. GWS moved from pick 7 to our pick 3, and in exchange we got pick 7, pick 34, pick 72 & Cam McCarthy (who was valued at about a late first round pick at the time from memory).
We selected Logue, Sean Darcy and used pick 72 in a packaged up separate deal to secure Luke Ryan.
I'm just having a bit of fun mate it is way too early to speculate what picks we have. I just want to see some decent talent on our list.
 
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Dockeroo

Club Legend
Nov 1, 2019
2,289
4,838
AFL Club
Fremantle
I'm just having a bit of fun mate it is way too eary to speculate what picks we have. I just want to see some decent talent on our list.
Yeah me too. It’s always better to trade down than up if you are after points value. For example, if we had pick 8 this year, and van Rooyen and Bazzo were available at picks 10 and 13 for example, we could do a swap like that on draft night and get two first rounders in the teens instead of one at pick 7. Strong argument that would be a sensible approach actually.
Having studied recent drafts a bit Im starting to think more and more that there is real value from picks 10-25 or so every year. The top 3 or 4 picks to be more likely to be elite every year. But if you keep taking multiple picks from 10-25 you end up with some very talented players on the list eventually. Essentially what the Eagles have done.
 

bone2468

Club Legend
May 3, 2013
1,344
1,120
AFL Club
Fremantle
Who was the WA ruckman we all wanted last year but Geelong picked him up, could package him and some picks for darcy if he wanted to go back home?
 

eastfreo75

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 11, 2011
11,031
9,965
pakenham
AFL Club
Fremantle
Yeah me too. It’s always better to trade down than up if you are after points value. For example, if we had pick 8 this year, and van Rooyen and Bazzo were available at picks 10 and 13 for example, we could do a swap like that on draft night and get two first rounders in the teens instead of one at pick 7. Strong argument that would be a sensible approach actually.
Having studied recent drafts a bit Im starting to think more and more that there is real value from picks 10-25 or so every year. The top 3 or 4 picks to be more likely to be elite every year. But if you keep taking multiple picks from 10-25 you end up with some very talented players on the list eventually. Essentially what the Eagles have done.
It’s case by case.

Each draft is very different.

Most drafts have blocks of players.

If you can trade down but still stay in the same block of players, then I think it’s a good idea.

Trading down but getting picks in a less quality block isn’t a good idea.

In 2019 upgrading enabled us to get Serong who was in the 3-8 pick block.

Getting back to your point below is something that supports your idea.


A late top 10 pick has about the same results as picks from 11 to 20.
 

Dockeroo

Club Legend
Nov 1, 2019
2,289
4,838
AFL Club
Fremantle
For the love of God can we not trade out our future 2nd / 3rd / 4th round picks this year?

Every year we do it and it never seems to have a net positive effect.
Yes agreed. However - it could be a good year to trade out our 2022 first round pick in exchange for two picks in the first round of the 2021 draft? If we finished say 12th and had pick 7, I reckon clubs would swap our first round pick next year for one in 2021, thinking that we ar likely to be still bottom 6 next year. Could end up with something like pick 7 and pick 10 in 2021 and no first round pick in 2022. If we bounced back up the ladder next year, that 2022 First round pick would be in the 12-15 range anyway.
This is supposed to be a very strong and deep draft.
Then keep the second third and fourth rounders for 2022 as you said.
 

blue shark

Premiership Player
Aug 15, 2009
3,533
2,570
perth
AFL Club
Fremantle
For the love of God can we not trade out our future 2nd / 3rd / 4th round picks this year?

Every year we do it and it never seems to have a net positive effect.
For the love of God can we not trade out our future 2nd / 3rd / 4th round picks this year?

Every year we do it and it never seems to have a net positive effect.
Why would you want those picks anyway?
I mean Warner went at pick 39 for Sydney, sure they get looked after by the AFL, but they know how to develop players.
 

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