List Mgmt. 2021 List Management: Draft, Trade, Free Agency and Academy

[Docker82]

This depends how you define hit and miss. This is Twomeys rankins 6 weeks out from the draft last year compared to the actual draft and the error in final placings:

Pick	Name	Variance
1​	Jamarra Ugle-Hagan	0
2​	Logan McDonald	2
3​	Elijah Hollands	4
4​	Riley Thilthorpe	2
5​	Denver Grainger-Barras	1
6​	Braeden Campbell	1
7​	Will Phillips	4
8​	Tanner Bruhn	4
9​	Oliver Henry	8
10​	Lachie Jones	6
11​	Zach Reid	1
12​	Finlay Macrae	7
13​	Archie Perkins	4
14​	Alex Davies	PL
15​	Heath Chapman	1
16​	Brayden Cook	9
17​	Joel Jeffery	PL
18​	Tom Powell	4
19​	Reef McInnes	4
20​	Jack Carrol	21
21​	Nik Cox	12
22​	Errol Gulden	10
23​	Connor Downie	12
24​	Bailey Laurie	2
25​	Zane Trew	Rookie

He got 12 of the top 15 correct if you ignore gold coast pre lists and 15 of the actual top 17 came from his top 17. Only Cox was a bolter.

So if he's in that ballpark again there is about a one in ten chance that a club with a pick around 8/9/10 pick up a player like JVR. In fact it's much more likely on this basis he slides than rises up. Twomeys accuracy after around pick 20 is terrible.

Tbh I Twomey's ranking are more based on talking to clubs and player managers than anything. I'm not sure clubs who have **** all early draft picks would hold their rankings too close to their chest, nor player managers in general. Twomey therefore ends up reasonably accurate. His phantom draft is only more so. He doesn't seem to bother much past pick 30 which would explain the poorer results there (along with it being less predictable).

 

[Channels]

With Hogan & Brander GWS certainly access some cheap KPF talent.

Meh, Hogan played 9 games this year. I reckon you get what you pay for.

 

[theGav56]

What kind of trade would 8 and 19 combined get us?

Would it get us JVR and a player like Draper, plus Hough/Sheldrick or a future 2nd?

 

[theGav56]

Meh, Hogan played 9 games this year. I reckon you get what you pay for.

Likely a better return than Brander will provide.

 

[Paracleet]

Tbh I Twomey's ranking are more based on talking to clubs and player managers than anything. I'm not sure clubs who have **** all early draft picks would hold their rankings too close to their chest, nor player managers in general. Twomey therefore ends up reasonably accurate. His phantom draft is only more so. He doesn't seem to bother much past pick 30 which would explain the poorer results there (along with it being less predictable).

Absolutely this is what he does. Frankly I don't think his assessment of the abilities of the players in isolation is any better than an astute bigfooty posters', indeed, probably worse, but his access is unparalleled as he obviously works hard.
But its why his top 20, and particularly top 12 or 15 or so, is so close to right.

 

[wakojako]

What kind of trade would 8 and 19 combined get us?

Would it get us JVR and a player like Draper, plus Hough/Sheldrick or a future 2nd?

Nah you had it spot on before: Erasmus (6) JVR (8) Draper/Motlop (19). Henry really needs to start lifting his game though so adding competition may help with that.

 

[pK75]

Nah you had it spot on before: Erasmus (6) JVR (8) Draper/Motlop (19). Henry really needs to start lifting his game though so adding competition may help with that.

It may just be my desire to land JVR and make the most of our picks but I can see us going 2 ways, both of which are only likely to happen on draft night.
1.Trade 6&8 with GWS for 2 and 13 to get Callaghan at 2 and JVR at 13. Then extracting the best value for 19 and sliding down to mid 20s.
2. trading 6 with Lions for 14 & 18, taking best Mid available at 8 (I’d even consider Wanganeen-Milera here) take JVR at 14 then use 18 to take our version of the slider (all clubs will see this differently) this frees us up to take absolute best value for 19, which could end up being someone’s future 1st if they really like someone still available.
I feel that if we leave JVR on the board past pick 13, one of Lions(14&18)Tigers (15) swans (16) or Demons (17) will nab him.

 

[Walkingwounded]

It may just be my desire to land JVR and make the most of our picks but I can see us going 2 ways, both of which are only likely to happen on draft night.
1.Trade 6&8 with GWS for 2 and 13 to get Callaghan at 2 and JVR at 13. Then extracting the best value for 19 and sliding down to mid 20s.
2. trading 6 with Lions for 14 & 18, taking best Mid available at 8 (I’d even consider Wanganeen-Milera here) take JVR at 14 then use 18 to take our version of the slider (all clubs will see this differently) this frees us up to take absolute best value for 19, which could end up being someone’s future 1st if they really like someone still available.
I feel that if we leave JVR on the board past pick 13, one of Lions(14&18)Tigers (15) swans (16) or Demons (17) will nab him.

I like trade 1, maximises our drafting this year but leaves the door open for next year.

Does leave a gap in the midfield though … mmmmmnn

 

[Cobbler]

It may just be my desire to land JVR and make the most of our picks but I can see us going 2 ways, both of which are only likely to happen on draft night.
1.Trade 6&8 with GWS for 2 and 13 to get Callaghan at 2 and JVR at 13. Then extracting the best value for 19 and sliding down to mid 20s.
2. trading 6 with Lions for 14 & 18, taking best Mid available at 8 (I’d even consider Wanganeen-Milera here) take JVR at 14 then use 18 to take our version of the slider (all clubs will see this differently) this frees us up to take absolute best value for 19, which could end up being someone’s future 1st if they really like someone still available.
I feel that if we leave JVR on the board past pick 13, one of Lions(14&18)Tigers (15) swans (16) or Demons (17) will nab him.

I'm very similar in thinking, but I'll throw a curve ball at you.

GWS heavily linked to Mac Andrews. I think they'll pass getting him at pick 2 (4). Then if Mac Andrews gets to our pick 6 (8) I think GWS may throw pick 13 and a future first at minimum at us.

I think there's a few teams that may throw those sort of offers at us. Port could do 12 and future 1st.

I like the concept of 6 and 8 for 2 and 13, but GWS won't do that unless it guarantees them their target.

6 and 8 are certainly in the sweet spot to have deals thrown our way. As is pick 19.

We need to have a variety of options, but all lead to us landing 2 out of say 5-6 targets, plus probably getting back into next years draft in a positive way.

We'll then also have the capital to throw picks at a Luke Jackson or Logan or whoever.

For what it's worth any combo from:

Pick 6 - Rachele, Erasmus, Mac Andrew
Pick 8 - JVR, Amiss or above

If by pick 6 all of these are still on the board (or whoever the 5-6 players targeted are) then we could entertain a slide.

We grab who we want at 8, probably who we still wanted at 10-15 bracket + have ourselves that future pick banked.

There's no 2 players combo I'd be disappointed with in the above 5 + a couple of others, but I'd be disappointed if we couldn't extract some value should the opportunity presents.

 

[Cobbler]

But also no harm in just using pick 6 and 8 on the night. Teams will no doubt make offers, but they'd need to seriously present 'overs' for us to give up on our potential priority.

Any trading down should only be done if the club does view 5-6 players as relatively equal and have combos worked out prior.

A tall forward to develop should almost be a non-negotiable. So whether that's Amiss or JVR at 6, 8 or 19 they need to get that right.

 

[theGav56]

Nah you had it spot on before: Erasmus (6) JVR (8) Draper/Motlop (19). Henry really needs to start lifting his game though so adding competition may help with that.

Yes, just keep it simple. Our spread of picks is sweet.

 

[ignoramus]

I'm very similar in thinking, but I'll throw a curve ball at you.

GWS heavily linked to Mac Andrews. I think they'll pass getting him at pick 2 (4). Then if Mac Andrews gets to our pick 6 (8) I think GWS may throw pick 13 and a future first at minimum at us.

I think there's a few teams that may throw those sort of offers at us. Port could do 12 and future 1st.

I like the concept of 6 and 8 for 2 and 13, but GWS won't do that unless it guarantees them their target.

6 and 8 are certainly in the sweet spot to have deals thrown our way. As is pick 19.

We need to have a variety of options, but all lead to us landing 2 out of say 5-6 targets, plus probably getting back into next years draft in a positive way.

We'll then also have the capital to throw picks at a Luke Jackson or Logan or whoever.

For what it's worth any combo from:

Pick 6 - Rachele, Erasmus, Mac Andrew
Pick 8 - JVR, Amiss or above

If by pick 6 all of these are still on the board (or whoever the 5-6 players targeted are) then we could entertain a slide.

We grab who we want at 8, probably who we still wanted at 10-15 bracket + have ourselves that future pick banked.

There's no 2 players combo I'd be disappointed with in the above 5 + a couple of others, but I'd be disappointed if we couldn't extract some value should the opportunity presents.

Really like this.

 

[greatgatsby]

So Goater's old man played footy in WA and is still there.

 

[JammoMonty]

I wouldn’t be. Shocked is a strong word. Twomey has barely had him in his top 25-30. I think he is rated around 15-25 for what it’s worth, which means he could get selected by any of the teams you mentioned or he may not.

I would be most comfortable with us selecting one mid and one tall in the top 10.

That tall could mean Gibcus, Andrew, Amiss or JVR. Amiss and JVR prob reaching a little bit if Walls rates them worthy of pick 10 then I’m ok with that. Alternatively we could downgrade pick 10, split pick 8 for Brisbanes two picks in the teens or just see who is available for our second round picks which could be JVR, Jack Williams or Bazzo.

Twomey is a fan boy, take no notice of that phantom draft. Mail is Freo will draft Amiss & Johnson.

 

[JammoMonty]

I'm very similar in thinking, but I'll throw a curve ball at you.

GWS heavily linked to Mac Andrews. I think they'll pass getting him at pick 2 (4). Then if Mac Andrews gets to our pick 6 (8) I think GWS may throw pick 13 and a future first at minimum at us.

I think there's a few teams that may throw those sort of offers at us. Port could do 12 and future 1st.

I like the concept of 6 and 8 for 2 and 13, but GWS won't do that unless it guarantees them their target.

6 and 8 are certainly in the sweet spot to have deals thrown our way. As is pick 19.

We need to have a variety of options, but all lead to us landing 2 out of say 5-6 targets, plus probably getting back into next years draft in a positive way.

We'll then also have the capital to throw picks at a Luke Jackson or Logan or whoever.

For what it's worth any combo from:

Pick 6 - Rachele, Erasmus, Mac Andrew
Pick 8 - JVR, Amiss or above

If by pick 6 all of these are still on the board (or whoever the 5-6 players targeted are) then we could entertain a slide.

We grab who we want at 8, probably who we still wanted at 10-15 bracket + have ourselves that future pick banked.

There's no 2 players combo I'd be disappointed with in the above 5 + a couple of others, but I'd be disappointed if we couldn't extract some value should the opportunity presents.

Interesting. Oscar McDonald very happy at Sydney, won’t leave. Luke Jackson is we’ll within Freo’s grasp. It’s been widely mentioned in here that Melb were quite upset Mac Andrew was not available to them within the new NGA rules, that said drafting him and using him as leverage for Jackson is a gamble I’m willing to take. Jackson comes to Freo and Bell is upgraded to the status of grand master wizard, he stays and we have the incredible raw talent player that could be anything.

There is a lot of talk Tim English is one foot out the door at WB and wants to return home. Out of contract next year along with Jackson, I know which player I’d prefer. Jackson could play as an inside mid he’s so versatile. When drafted he still held a Freo membership. Bring. Him. Home!

 

[go_the_dockers]

But also no harm in just using pick 6 and 8 on the night. Teams will no doubt make offers, but they'd need to seriously present 'overs' for us to give up on our potential priority.

Any trading down should only be done if the club does view 5-6 players as relatively equal and have combos worked out prior.

A tall forward to develop should almost be a non-negotiable. So whether that's Amiss or JVR at 6, 8 or 19 they need to get that right.

What is Amiss, JVR, Milera-Wanganeen are all set to go in the 15 to 20 range and these are the players we really rate, or we would prefer to get two over three players.

I think Amiss will slide, and may be available at pick 19.

Brisbane have 14 and 18, if they want to move up the order would you swap pick 14 and pick 18 for pick 8 and our too late picks

 

[Purple Jesus]

https://www.afl.com.au/news/685521

Want.

 

[Cobbler]

What is Amiss, JVR, Milera-Wanganeen are all set to go in the 15 to 20 range and these are the players we really rate, or we would prefer to get two over three players.

I think Amiss will slide, and may be available at pick 19.

Brisbane have 14 and 18, if they want to move up the order would you swap pick 14 and pick 18 for pick 8 and our too late picks

Id personally do 6 or 8 for 14 and 18. But then I’d look to trade out 19 for that future 1st + slide down the order.

3 top 20 picks + something later is all I think we’re looking to do, so any chance to improve our 2022 hand we could look at.

6, 8 and 19 is nice, but I think we can still land quality at 8, 14, 18 + get max value for that pick 19.

 

[Purpletown]

With Hogan & Brander GWS certainly access some cheap KPF talent.

GWS has become the last chance salon for naughty and underperforming forwards.

 

[freodog]

SD 6PR - Callum Twomey

The AFL.com.au reporter previews the best talent in the upcoming draft.

player.whooshkaa.com

Haselby on 6PR last night banging on about his mate saying we are into Andrew. I wish Haselby would shut up and not draw more attention if are truly into him.

 

[Tbonefreo]

Absolutely this is what he does. Frankly I don't think his assessment of the abilities of the players in isolation is any better than an astute bigfooty posters', indeed, probably worse, but his access is unparalleled as he obviously works hard.
But its why his top 20, and particularly top 12 or 15 or so, is so close to right.

Last year he was way off. But it was a shocking year so you can't really blame him.

 

[Eski3]

https://www.afl.com.au/news/685521

Want.

Sounds like he fills a need. Wait where's the classic line from every predraft article for every prospect we are interested in?



Ah there we go

 

[MadDocker]

Draft end of November? Bleh. AFL drag everything out.

 

[masai tu]

Interesting. Oscar McDonald very happy at Sydney, won’t leave. Luke Jackson is we’ll within Freo’s grasp. It’s been widely mentioned in here that Melb were quite upset Mac Andrew was not available to them within the new NGA rules, that said drafting him and using him as leverage for Jackson is a gamble I’m willing to take. Jackson comes to Freo and Bell is upgraded to the status of grand master wizard, he stays and we have the incredible raw talent player that could be anything.

There is a lot of talk Tim English is one foot out the door at WB and wants to return home. Out of contract next year along with Jackson, I know which player I’d prefer. Jackson could play as an inside mid he’s so versatile. When drafted he still held a Freo membership. Bring. Him. Home!

Jackson, that’s a yes to try and wedge him away from Melbourne.

English = Mini Bandy. That’s a definite no !!!!.

 

[Bastyy]

Draft end of November? Bleh. AFL drag everything out.

Think it's due to exams, not exactly the AFL's doing