Strategy 2021 Mid-pricer madness

[stevebbb]

On that logic what would be the limit of how many one picks out of Sloane, Harmes, Rozee, Heppell or Caldwell if going for League wins? 1-2 max? None?

Just depends on what you truly believe will happen. If you're picking a mid-pricer with the intention of them being a keeper, because you genuinely believe they'll average 90+ or something, then go for it, back your gut. If you're picking them just because you think they'll do OK and "there are no good cheap rookies", then maybe reconsider. Obviously each scenario is different, like paying $210k for Impey compared to paying $370k for Rankine.

Back your gut

 

[Andrew Birch]

How many do you have atm?
Don't go weak on me

 

[Santoz]

I really want to start either Luko or Clark at D4 but im just not 100% convinced yet.

I had Hunter Clark last season and am avoiding him like the plague this time round.

Watch him average 100 playing on ball.

 

[Lord De Goey]

I had Hunter Clark last season and am avoiding him like the plague this time round.

Watch him average 100 playing on ball.

I traded him in after round 4 last season. Looking back at his first 4 scores, I have no idea why. Had to keep him all year too. It was frustrating because he's clearly a brilliant player, it just hasn't resulted in consistent supercoach scores yet. I have no doubt that he will average 105+ for years to come one day.

Speaking about mid pricers though, you'll win some and lose some. I managed a top 1000 finish last year starting Parish, Petracca and Brayshaw. 2/3 was a decent return and parish finished the season strong.

 

[stevebbb]

I went through the last few pages of the '2020 Preseason Teams' thread from last year to check out the popular mid-pricers and suss out how they did

Some might want to copy/paste the table into excel and colour code the good/bad results to get a better view of the success/failure rate
(it's all subjective and it's based on several factors, eg. was Howe a success or failure?)

Player	2020 starting price	2020 average	2020 matches played	2020 position
Cumming	$245k	67	3	DEF
Naismith	$252k	100	2	RUCK
Roberton	$260k	26	1	DEF
Fort	$265k	81	5	FWD
Lukosius	$275k	80	17	FWD/DEF
Long	$283k	72	14	FWD
Birchall	$293k	70	14	DEF
Ridley	$323k	102	17	DEF
Dsmith	$336k	85	16	FWD/MID
Rowbottom	$338k	76	16	FWD/MID
Cerra	$339k	90	17	DEF
Jacobs	$348k	96.3	7	RUCK
Short	$349k	97	17	DEF
And Brayshaw	$383k	101	17	FWD/MID
Simpkin	$383k	93	17	FWD/MID
Lynch	$389k	68	16	FWD
Tomlinson	$390k	60	13	MID
Narkle	$397k	64	5	MID
Wingard	$412k	84	17	FWD/MID
Walsh	$412k	101	17	MID
Baz Smith	$416k	92	17	FWD/MID
Ceglar	$417k	72	13	FWD/RUCK
Hanners	$417k	70	6	MID
Howe	$432k	121	4	DEF
Hurley	$433k	80	14	DEF
Maynard	$434k	102	17	DEF
Docherty	$436k	92	16	DEF
Viney	$439k	100	16	MID
Petracca	$441k	118	17	FWD
MacPherson	$444k	57	12	FWD/MID
English	$448k	103	17	RUCK
Ang brayshaw	$452k	81	14	MID
NicNat	$458k	111	16	RUCK
Greenwood	$463k	106	17	FWD/MID
Dawson	$468k	85	16	DEF/FWD
Weller	$481k	81	17	DEF
Bsmith	$481k	82	16	DEF
Crisp	$483k	99	17	DEF
Houston	$485k	91	15	DEF/MID
O'Meara	$491k	91	12	MID

 

[Chaisa]

was Howe a success or failure?

Well he made $100k from his original price pre-injury. I'd count that as a success given he averaged 120 in his first 4 matches....

 

[Chaisa]

From that list, the successes IMO were:

Short
Andy Brayshaw
Howe*
Petracca
Naitanui
Greenwood
Crisp

With Viney, Docherty, Cerra and Walsh as borderline hits (though IIRC Walsh didn't really start doing well until the second half of the year)

 

[Ingy]

Imagine if you had started with Howe, Maynard and Ridley last year.

Folks would have mocked you.

You would have been laughing last though

 

[Jcpdragonx]

I think guns and rookies is the go for me. Mostly because we have so many proven guys to pick from, spoilt for choice in the midfield and def. And the rookies seem to be in the mids/fwds. If the rookies dont show up then ill probably split Ziebell into Campbell and have an extra 60k to play with.

Young at D6 and then running a bunch of the 250-180k guys in the forward line is what I currently have. Would love Green but it looks like I need to run Young at D6 so I dont have to watch Ling score 30 again.

Harmes - Role/Still good?
Duggan - Injuries/Can he do it 22 games?
Williams - Injury/Role
Caldwell - Age/Ceiling/injuries/22 games?
Green - Age/22 games/Role - although damn he looks good, and it looks like the role is there but they did hold back Hopper and Kelly a bit. I'm tempted
Taranto - Ceiling
Hately - Role/22 Games/Job security
Heppell - Injuries/Ceiling
Rayner - Role/Age/Ceiling
Young - Injuries/Ceiling

 

[Mofra]

Currently have Harmes, Young, Ziebell, Daniher, Impey and a super secret pod up forward. Considering Green too.

Naughtoooooooon!!!!!! He's tearing this game to shreds!!!!

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

Good on you Mofra - this thread has been missing all these weeks - months
What have you been doing Andrew Birch

Absolutley throffing hard over any campaigner not price over $499,999.99

 

[Northernsoul74]

Naughtoooooooon!!!!!! He's tearing this game to shreds!!!!

I’ve thought about it after Matthew Lloyds comments the other week.

“I was at a function and a Western Bulldogs player was there, I won’t say who he was," Lloyd said.

“He said Aaron Naughton in training has been unstoppable. I think he could be an outstanding centre-half back but forward is where they need him.

“They said that in one of the games he played … in three quarters of footy had 24 disposals, 14 marks and kicked five goals - and he took a mark that they believe would have been Mark of the Year.”

 

[Mofra]

I’ve thought about it after Matthew Lloyds comments the other week.

“I was at a function and a Western Bulldogs player was there, I won’t say who he was," Lloyd said.

“He said Aaron Naughton in training has been unstoppable. I think he could be an outstanding centre-half back but forward is where they need him.

“They said that in one of the games he played … in three quarters of footy had 24 disposals, 14 marks and kicked five goals - and he took a mark that they believe would have been Mark of the Year.”

He'd be one you really ride the bumps with - 110 one week, 12 the next.
I'm not bold enough to pull the trigger on a mid-pricer KPF (Daniher I have but only as a stepping stone and he'll get some ruck points as well).

 

[Northernsoul74]

He'd be one you really ride the bumps with - 110 one week, 12 the next.
I'm not bold enough to pull the trigger on a mid-pricer KPF (Daniher I have but only as a stepping stone and he'll get some ruck points as well).

Yeah I thought about until I realized he would have been up against Gardner and Cordy types.

 

[buttox]

I went through the last few pages of the '2020 Preseason Teams' thread from last year to check out the popular mid-pricers and suss out how they did

Some might want to copy/paste the table into excel and colour code the good/bad results to get a better view of the success/failure rate
(it's all subjective and it's based on several factors, eg. was Howe a success or failure?)

Player	2020 starting price	2020 average	2020 matches played	2020 position
Cumming	$245k	67	3	DEF
Naismith	$252k	100	2	RUCK
Roberton	$260k	26	1	DEF
Fort	$265k	81	5	FWD
Lukosius	$275k	80	17	FWD/DEF
Long	$283k	72	14	FWD
Birchall	$293k	70	14	DEF
Dsmith	$336k	85	16	FWD/MID
Rowbottom	$338k	76	16	FWD/MID
Cerra	$339k	90	17	DEF
Jacobs	$348k	96.3	7	RUCK
Short	$349k	97	17	DEF
And Brayshaw	$383k	101	17	FWD/MID
Lynch	$389k	68	16	FWD
Tomlinson	$390k	60	13	MID
Narkle	$397k	64	5	MID
Wingard	$412k	84	17	FWD/MID
Walsh	$412k	101	17	MID
Ceglar	$417k	72	13	FWD/RUCK
Hanners	$417k	70	6	MID
Howe	$432k	121	4	DEF
Hurley	$433k	80	14	DEF
Maynard	$434k	102	17	DEF
Docherty	$436k	92	16	DEF
Viney	$439k	100	16	MID
Petracca	$441k	118	17	FWD
MacPherson	$444k	57	12	FWD/MID
English	$448k	103	17	RUCK
Ang brayshaw	$452k	81	14	MID
NicNat	$458k	111	16	RUCK
Greenwood	$463k	106	17	FWD/MID
Dawson	$468k	85	16	DEF/FWD
Weller	$481k	81	17	DEF
Bsmith	$481k	82	16	DEF
Crisp	$483k	99	17	DEF
Houston	$485k	91	15	DEF/MID
O'Meara	$491k	91	12	MID

no simpkin?
i guess no one was chatting about him

 

[Chaisa]

From that list, the successes IMO were:

Short
Andy Brayshaw
Howe*
Petracca
Naitanui
Greenwood
Crisp

With Viney, Docherty, Cerra and Walsh as borderline hits (though IIRC Walsh didn't really start doing well until the second half of the year)

If we also consider why these guys broke out:

Short - breakout year
Brayshaw - breakout year
Howe - not sure. Given it was only 4 games it might've just been a form hit, but 2019 was a bit of a slump, I think the shortened quarters played to his strengths and Collingwood's game style seemed much better suited to mass points from their defenders than before.
Petracca - breakout year, better role
Naitanui - less injuries, shortened quarters played to his strengths
Greenwood - new club, more midfield time
Crisp - not sure here. Defensive points inflation? Change in tactics? Was only a minor improvement in scoring so don't think he did much differently
Maynard - natural progression + defensive points inflation

Viney - less injuries, better form
Docherty - returning from injury
Cerra - natural progression/breakout year
Walsh - natural progression
English - natural progression

 

[stevebbb]

no simpkin?
i guess no one was chatting about him

Yeah I didn't see him once in the few pages I looked at. I'll add him

 

[buttox]

Yeah I didn't see him once in the few pages I looked at. I'll add him

I mentioned him in like december 2019.
Idea got poo pooed.
I shut up about him and ended up with a uber POD.
Similar to LDU this year.
hopefully no one takes him

 

[Andrew Birch]

I went through the last few pages of the '2020 Preseason Teams' thread from last year to check out the popular mid-pricers and suss out how they did

Some might want to copy/paste the table into excel and colour code the good/bad results to get a better view of the success/failure rate
(it's all subjective and it's based on several factors, eg. was Howe a success or failure?)

Player	2020 starting price	2020 average	2020 matches played	2020 position
Cumming	$245k	67	3	DEF
Naismith	$252k	100	2	RUCK
Roberton	$260k	26	1	DEF
Fort	$265k	81	5	FWD
Lukosius	$275k	80	17	FWD/DEF
Long	$283k	72	14	FWD
Birchall	$293k	70	14	DEF
Dsmith	$336k	85	16	FWD/MID
Rowbottom	$338k	76	16	FWD/MID
Cerra	$339k	90	17	DEF
Jacobs	$348k	96.3	7	RUCK
Short	$349k	97	17	DEF
And Brayshaw	$383k	101	17	FWD/MID
Simpkin	$383k	93	17	FWD/MID
Lynch	$389k	68	16	FWD
Tomlinson	$390k	60	13	MID
Narkle	$397k	64	5	MID
Wingard	$412k	84	17	FWD/MID
Walsh	$412k	101	17	MID
Ceglar	$417k	72	13	FWD/RUCK
Hanners	$417k	70	6	MID
Howe	$432k	121	4	DEF
Hurley	$433k	80	14	DEF
Maynard	$434k	102	17	DEF
Docherty	$436k	92	16	DEF
Viney	$439k	100	16	MID
Petracca	$441k	118	17	FWD
MacPherson	$444k	57	12	FWD/MID
English	$448k	103	17	RUCK
Ang brayshaw	$452k	81	14	MID
NicNat	$458k	111	16	RUCK
Greenwood	$463k	106	17	FWD/MID
Dawson	$468k	85	16	DEF/FWD
Weller	$481k	81	17	DEF
Bsmith	$481k	82	16	DEF
Crisp	$483k	99	17	DEF
Houston	$485k	91	15	DEF/MID
O'Meara	$491k	91	12	MID

Imagine being the poor sucker that started McPherson over Petracca based on pre-season form.

 

[stevebbb]

Imagine being the poor sucker that started McPherson over Petracca based on pre-season form.

View attachment 1069049

When I was putting this together, I was thinking "geez this is going to bring up bad memories for some", trauma

 

[Hai_Newman]

Crisp looked to play a slightly different role last year.

Pies fans thoughts.

 

[Hai_Newman]

When I was putting this together, I was thinking "geez this is going to bring up bad memories for some", trauma

Still spewing I traded OUT Brayshaw ffs!!
Thanks man I'm gonna go rock in the corner for a while.

 

[Judd_Magic]

Started with Pettraca and Brayshaw last year which were the best 2 things I did besides my Roughy manouvers.

 

[stevebbb]

I went through the last few pages of the '2020 Preseason Teams' thread from last year to check out the popular mid-pricers and suss out how they did

Some might want to copy/paste the table into excel and colour code the good/bad results to get a better view of the success/failure rate
(it's all subjective and it's based on several factors, eg. was Howe a success or failure?)

Player	2020 starting price	2020 average	2020 matches played	2020 position
Cumming	$245k	67	3	DEF
Naismith	$252k	100	2	RUCK
Roberton	$260k	26	1	DEF
Fort	$265k	81	5	FWD
Lukosius	$275k	80	17	FWD/DEF
Long	$283k	72	14	FWD
Birchall	$293k	70	14	DEF
Ridley	$323k	102	17	DEF
Dsmith	$336k	85	16	FWD/MID
Rowbottom	$338k	76	16	FWD/MID
Cerra	$339k	90	17	DEF
Jacobs	$348k	96.3	7	RUCK
Short	$349k	97	17	DEF
And Brayshaw	$383k	101	17	FWD/MID
Simpkin	$383k	93	17	FWD/MID
Lynch	$389k	68	16	FWD
Tomlinson	$390k	60	13	MID
Narkle	$397k	64	5	MID
Wingard	$412k	84	17	FWD/MID
Walsh	$412k	101	17	MID
Ceglar	$417k	72	13	FWD/RUCK
Hanners	$417k	70	6	MID
Howe	$432k	121	4	DEF
Hurley	$433k	80	14	DEF
Maynard	$434k	102	17	DEF
Docherty	$436k	92	16	DEF
Viney	$439k	100	16	MID
Petracca	$441k	118	17	FWD
MacPherson	$444k	57	12	FWD/MID
English	$448k	103	17	RUCK
Ang brayshaw	$452k	81	14	MID
NicNat	$458k	111	16	RUCK
Greenwood	$463k	106	17	FWD/MID
Dawson	$468k	85	16	DEF/FWD
Weller	$481k	81	17	DEF
Bsmith	$481k	82	16	DEF
Crisp	$483k	99	17	DEF
Houston	$485k	91	15	DEF/MID
O'Meara	$491k	91	12	MID

Added Ridley and Simpkin. Any others I'm missing?



Looking at the list, none bar Petracca were must-haves. Yes several guys did well, but most of them had form spikes. Some started poorly and then went nuts (Andrew Brayshaw, Walsh), others started well and then dropped off (Simpkin, Ridley, Doch, Viney). So with that, I'm happy to try a GnR approach this season, as long as the rookies are there

 

[Hai_Newman]

Started with Pettraca and Brayshaw last year which were thebest 2 things I did besides my Roughy manouvers.

Read that as Roobie maneuvers...lolz