Analysis 2021 Player Stock Projections

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StCicatriz

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 3, 2016
22,242
44,766
AFL Club
St Kilda
So thought it'd be interesting to make some predictions for the end of 2021 and use the Stock market as a bit of a guide.

You have to make 4 calls:
1. Growth: the player you think will have the greatest growth in their performance i.e. the guy that wins this category would be something like "he's on the rookie list and looking at delisting only to then have an amazing 2021 and be best 22" play it safe and you might find yourself with a poorer return than someone making a more risky call,
2. Hold: a player you think won't have a great 2021 but you would hold onto them as you think you will see growth in a future season
3. Sell: a player who you think we can get something for at the end of 2021 that can provide the club with trade/draft assets that will net a better return. nominating players who are on the chopping block isn't what this category is about, it's about guys you would find genuine suitors for. bonus points if the assets you can deliver an amazing outcome i.e. Josh Bruce -> Zac Jones & Dan Butler
4. Buy: a player at another club you would bring in. The player has to be at least seen as gettable i.e. we are not after nominations of Dustin Martin here. Think border-line best 22 or fallen out of the best 22 where a club would move them on. In other words: Butler. We want money ball here!!!
 

gringo2011

Premium Gold
Nov 12, 2011
34,507
84,848
Melbourne
AFL Club
St Kilda
Growth- Alabakis, just coming from so far back even some good Sandy games will make him look a million miles ahead of where he was when he started.

Hold- Leo, has some silk and disposal. Byrnes, looks a project worth persisting with.

Sell- Sinclair, Webster, Dunstan or Lonie the only that might still have some value that could potentially be replaced.

Buy- Petrevski- Seton, never quite made the top tier like he looked like he might and uncontracted at the end of 2021. Or O'Brien form Carlton, behind Newnes but a smooth moving outside mid/wingman.
 

StCicatriz

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 3, 2016
22,242
44,766
AFL Club
St Kilda
for mine:

1. Growth: Bytel, medium risk call, i really like the look of him. i think there's some serious growth ahead of him this season. contracted for 2 more seasons so not a risky call either,
2. Hold: Going on a limb here, but Daniel McKenzie. i like the attributes he has, i don't think he will have a good 2021 but i think there's something there for 2022,
3. Sell: Jack Billings, HFF/winger/mid who has shown he can play in the midfield and be effective forward. at his best 30 disposals and a couple of goals, at his worst 2 disposals for 3 qtrs. genuine match-winner who has struggled for consistency, i think he can net a first-rounder via free agency or trade,
4. Buy: Jared Brander KPP who is out of contract at the end of the year, will find it hard to displace what is a very mature spin
 

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Significant

Club Legend
Nov 30, 2016
1,511
2,884
AFL Club
St Kilda
1. Growth - my mate Byrner, although with some bias as his advocate, if the VFL merger league gets going this year and we get a lot more coverage, we will see why he was being talked up all year in the scratchies. Class.

2. Hold - Oscar Clavarino. I don't expect the world of him, just another solid season and a solid preseason coming in to 2022. His body has changed remarkably and only needs some luck with his injuries to get form and fitness under his belt. His timing is impecible with Frawley and Carlisle entering their twilight years.

3. Sell - I'm going out on a limb here and saying Ross. He seems to be the most expendable and to me would get us something back with a bit of currency. I'm also extremely bullish on Bytel given his pedigree as a junior and his work last season.

4. Buy - Jack Payne. Wanted him this trade and draft period. Want him next as well. Absolutely perfect replacement for Frawley / Carlisle and is our FB with Dougal at CHB for the next 10 year's, locked and loaded. If Marcus Adams takes his defensive spot at the start of this season, he will be regretting extending that contract with the Lions. Should be playing AFL every week.
 

hayes

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 9, 2008
14,021
15,785
Melbourne
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
New Orleans Saints, Chicago Bulls
Growth: Highmore straight into the best 22 and will stay there.

Hold: Byrnes might find it tough to get in this season but will eventually. Ball magnet with pace similar to Gresh and Jones.

Sell: not big on players for draft picks but one more year for Billings. Been getting paid on potential for too long, in 7 years he’s had one really good season as a forward and one really good season as a winger with teases in between. Either he’s a consistent match winner or we could get something decent for him.

Buy: any fringe key defender we could get on the cheap.
 

Saint_Dos

Premium Gold
Sep 27, 2012
1,957
1,915
Behind You
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
Phoenix Suns
Growth: Darragh Joyce (fairly risky call but not long ago we predicted he could do good things as a KPD. Should get his chance to play back there in the VFL and hopefully we will get to see some of that form again from the Irishman).

Hold: Ben Long (may well drop out of best 22 this year but return all the better in 2022)

Sell: Luke Dunstan (will be best 22 at times this season but will boost his value and leave via FA for more cash which no one will begrudge)

Buy: Fischer McAsey (not overly risky due to us being rumoured to be talking to him but exactly what we need imo)
 

OxSaint

All Australian
Oct 7, 2015
618
1,719
AFL Club
St Kilda
Growth: Tom Highmore. That noise coming out of the playing group combine with his highlights. Have a feeling we have a Tom Stewart on our hands.

Hold: Leo Connolly. Ball users like this don’t grow on tree’s. Worth persisting.
Sell: Ross, robo, Dunstan. Frees up considerable cap space to land another player.

Buy: Fischer McAsey. Fills a need and has a lot of potential. Also plays both ends off the ground.
 

ScrappyDo

Premiership Player
Mar 29, 2018
3,865
11,052
Omnipotent
AFL Club
St Kilda
Growth: Bytel
Total Ball Pig in juniors and super impressive 3 games last year.
Brutish alpha midfielder with exceptional hands, poise, and composure.
I'd give this kid Crouch's spot for the first 2 games as a like for like.
2 games, go and destroy.


Hold: Leo Connolly.
Class, just needs the body and he could handy AF.
Definitely gets another year to harden up in the ressies

Sell: Ross/Dunny
Lets face it, not much market for the outhers outside the 22.
JB had better deliver as said above, otherwise I'd be sorely tempted.
Hands off all our juniors from 2019/20/21

Buy: Payne
Because I watched the final last year....
 

plugger66

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 10, 2011
26,370
43,333
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
Ormond AFC
Selling is about value and importance to us compared to who might need that type. Billings stands out before the season starts. Hopefully by end we need him. Buying well I’d say not a player but a type so a inside outside faster mid. Growth is obvious to me and that’s Clark to be a pure mid. Holding also seems obvious. Anyone the club don’t want to lose.
 

L_W_P

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 23, 2009
10,406
16,213
SE Suburbs
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
New Orleans Saints, Boston Celtics
Growth - Byrnes. Has all the tools. If he can start putting it together then we will have a serious player on our hands.

Hold - Rowan Marshall - He could be the best ruck/forward since Paul Salmon. Absolutely dominant in both roles. By far our most important player and just keeps getting better.

Sell - Frawley - Not much left but he's the BigFooty Sponsor player so will be lucky if he isn't in the COVID ICU by round 4.

Buy - Zac Merrett - Pricey but worth the investment.
 

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