List Mgmt. 2021 Trade & List Management Thread I

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Malifice

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Oct 2, 2007
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But you said he's worth $750k, only 100k more than Martin. One could assume based on that 2 x 2nd rounders would be fair or PSD.
I dont think Martin is worth 650k. But we had to offer more to convince him to leave, so there is a premium there.

Look, I dont want to be dragged into insane 'PSD OR NOTHING' debating here, or ridiculous trade proposals for 'McKay for a used condom or else'. The reality of the situation is that should he leave, it'll be for unders (something like a future 1st) and not a token 3rd rounder and a reach around behind the MCG.

If you guys want him, and are prepared to offer insane money, we'd let him walk, but for fair compensation in the ballpark of a future 1st (which is unders).
 

DuckYeah

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Jul 5, 2010
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How were we being campaigners? We offered a second and a third round pick for Martin, who hadn't exactly set the world on fire. That's close to his (contracted) value of a late 1st (ballpark).

Not seeing how our offer of (2nd+3rd for Martin) is 'the same sh*t as' (a 3rd rounder or GAGF for McKay).

Obviously if he leaves on some kind of insane deal, we'd have to take unders due to the contract situation, but a future 1st (for example) is unders.
Again you said he’s not worth “x” amount of money, which means he isnt worth the picks of “x” amount. If it comes to the crunch, whereby (as martin did with a big fat dangling carrot) whats to say a third round pick isnt accepted? Take what ya get.

and its the same scenario, your mob fleeced gold coast, martin was worth more than what Carlton offered, you know it, everyone knows it, it was the steal of the bloody century. So if it happens to your mob, dont cry.

edit: also had enough of this Carltank conversation, time to nick off I reckon.
 

Malifice

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Oct 2, 2007
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If it comes to the crunch, whereby (as martin did with a big fat dangling carrot) whats to say a third round pick isnt accepted? Take what ya get.
Because that doesn't happen. Never in the history of the PSD have clubs done what you're saying and walked a player to the PSD without at least tabling a ballpark reasonable trade offer. It would go to arbitration, the AFL would intervene, and North would forever be trading pariahs amongst the other clubs (and certainly from us). The PSD only exists because the AFL needs it due to legal issues with potential restraint of trade claims.

We had pick 1 in the PSD during the Judd trade, and still handed over 3, 20 and Kennedy (who we picked at pick 4 two years earlier). All the threats of 'PSD or nothing' are only ever used by naïve club supporters (including our own during the Judd trade), and never actually play out in reality. Clubs dont go into trades attempting to 'bend over' other clubs (despite what supporters want to believe). Being a closed market (and one supervised by the AFL) it not only makes no sense to be dicks at the trade table, it's actually counter productive, and invites AFL intervention.

Again, I dont want to debate what McKay might be worth in a trade. If you wanna hold onto the dream of 'walking him to the PSD for nothing' then fine, but the reality is, if he accepted some kind of crazy big money offer, it would cost a (likely) future 1st (and that in itself is way unders).

Lets just agree to disagree on that point.
 

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Tas

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He's good, but there are question marks. He doest crash packs or run through the loose defender as much as he should, and his kicking is a little suspect (despite being a left footer, he insists on round the corner snaps, even when on his preferred and 25 meters out). He's getting his goals mainly on account of his height, and defenders shitting themselves and holding his jumper or infringing.

Dont get me wrong, I think he's growing into a solid 60 or so goal a year KPF (and should be thereabouts this year), which is where I price him at around 750k or so. Certainly if he bags a Coleman or two and AA honors over this season or the next two leading up to his F/A contract, he'll command around a million or so a season as a F/A.

Talk of 1.2 or 1.3 million is crazy (thats Martin or Bont money), and I'd be happy to let him walk for that money, which could be better spent on a F/A (and take the 1st round pick on offer).
We saw some great signs from Ben two years ago but pretty much him and Durdin were tracking about the same level, it clicked for Ben and last year he was amazing, replaced Tarrant as the full back and Durdin didn't get another contract. I think people just expect Harry to take the next step because Ben did for us and I think that has clouded some normal judgement.

I think Harry is a very good prospect and he could become one of the top key forwards, but I think it is a lot harder for a forward than it is for a defender. As a defender the ball comes to you, or your opponent. You could be clueless and just stick to your opponent and as long as you are strong in a contest and can get your fist on the ball you are going to do okay. It is a lot harder to be a good key forward because the whole backline is for the most part conspiring against you as a group effort so you really need a lot to go right to be a successful key forward.

My biggest question mark on Harry is his going around the body from dead in front, it is fine while it works but to me it could be a sign that he has confidence issues, or could have. As a top end key forward you would want to have a fairly boring and routine drop punt routine which you can just execute over and over with a high degree of reliability. It is something that made Brown valuable for us while he played for us, he didn't waste a lot of opportunities in the corridor.

Nobody is going to be critical of him... while it works, but if he starts getting the yips I would be worried that it could manifest into confidence/psychological issues. There is a lot of pressure on key forwards and if there are weaknesses in their game sooner or later there will likely be tested on them.

That being said, I would be super excited if he was playing for us because he has great hands and he has a lot of potential, it would be exciting to see what he would be capable of. To some degree, it is the one regret I have with us not taking McDonald, I am happy we have Phillips but there is nothing like have a key forward that blossom. Whether it does or doesn't is anybody's guess though, regardless of talent or potential.
 

Malifice

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Oct 2, 2007
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My biggest question mark on Harry is his going around the body from dead in front, it is fine while it works but to me it could be a sign that he has confidence issues, or could have.
Yep. Its mind boggling. He'll be literally 25-35 meters out, on his preferred side on a set shot for a left footer, and snap it around the body instead of a drop punt.

Here he is doing it 4 times against Freo, each one 25-35, on his preferred (he missed one or two from the same spot as well, doing the same thing).



Don't get me wrong; if it's a stupid plan and it works; it wasn't a stupid plan. But still, I would like to see him with a bit more confidence around goal (and really crashing packs and hurting -legally- the third/ loose defenders filling the hole; something he doesn't do enough of at the moment).
 

FlyHigh18

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lets face it. If we want to lure a player away from his club we will have to pay overs. Nobody moves on a discounted fee. Need to identify who we really want, make the offer they can't refuse (or force their club to pay more), and have a plan B.
we can start by not targeting players who are balls deep in flag contention
 

Usayed Givashe

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Nov 7, 2020
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I just ask myself, what would Carlton do to us in the same position? Positioned last and in desperate need of a key forward? Please.

They would offer $7.5m over 6 years.

As for his kicking, Gaelic footy kick around the corner and do it more accurately than our players. Ditto League/Union players who come from the side. Golf is the same out of a bunker/chipping you aim your feet left and clubface at the hole and zing in there left to right. Soccer? Only Ronaldo can do a perpendicular free kick, everyone else is side foot with bend.

Maybe Harry is ahead of the curve.
 

Roman Roy

I’m dumb, but I’m smart.
Oct 3, 2017
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When we talk about a future 1st rounder, how far into the future can clubs trade? I'd be more comfortable with a 2023 first rounder instead of a 2022 first rounder if that was possible.

Although if Cooper Harvey draws a high first round bid, we might be happy to have traded out our first rounder for someone like Harry McKay.

But again, I don't expect him to be playing anywhere other than Carlton.
 
Last edited:

pupstar

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We saw some great signs from Ben two years ago but pretty much him and Durdin were tracking about the same level, it clicked for Ben and last year he was amazing, replaced Tarrant as the full back and Durdin didn't get another contract. I think people just expect Harry to take the next step because Ben did for us and I think that has clouded some normal judgement.

I think Harry is a very good prospect and he could become one of the top key forwards, but I think it is a lot harder for a forward than it is for a defender. As a defender the ball comes to you, or your opponent. You could be clueless and just stick to your opponent and as long as you are strong in a contest and can get your fist on the ball you are going to do okay. It is a lot harder to be a good key forward because the whole backline is for the most part conspiring against you as a group effort so you really need a lot to go right to be a successful key forward.

My biggest question mark on Harry is his going around the body from dead in front, it is fine while it works but to me it could be a sign that he has confidence issues, or could have. As a top end key forward you would want to have a fairly boring and routine drop punt routine which you can just execute over and over with a high degree of reliability. It is something that made Brown valuable for us while he played for us, he didn't waste a lot of opportunities in the corridor.

Nobody is going to be critical of him... while it works, but if he starts getting the yips I would be worried that it could manifest into confidence/psychological issues. There is a lot of pressure on key forwards and if there are weaknesses in their game sooner or later there will likely be tested on them.

That being said, I would be super excited if he was playing for us because he has great hands and he has a lot of potential, it would be exciting to see what he would be capable of. To some degree, it is the one regret I have with us not taking McDonald, I am happy we have Phillips but there is nothing like have a key forward that blossom. Whether it does or doesn't is anybody's guess though, regardless of talent or potential.
I think you are being pretty hard on the backman Tas.
 

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