Analysis 2021 trade thread

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Viceregal

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Riley McMillan getting some bloody good write ups in those reports as well... what a melt down there would be in AFL "heartland" if we got priority access to not 1, not 2 but 3 highly rated prospects in the one draft :D , come on down Will, Jaspa and Riley.
Pretty good chance they would never touch the father-son side of things as they benefit themselves from that ... but should a day come where picks 1, 2 and 3 were all ours just by virtue of academy well the ghost of Maguire past will likely give them some helpful hints.
 

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Leuy LongerCombo

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Hi, not sure what the lions pts situation is like for next year for Ashcroft.

Just assuming im correct, next year lions have 1st (14), 2nd (33), 4th (72) = 1743 points = pick 7

Trade:
14+18 (2021) = 2366 points and If the hawks improve and finish 12th - It would be 7 (2022) and 21(2021) 2522 point. .

Lions 2022 picks: 7, 14, 33, 72, 90 = 3387 points = pick 1 and 43

Gives them the ability to trade out picks for a 2022 second and/or third and future picks 2023

Thoughts?
The Ashcroft situation will work itself out next year. Best case as a standout number 1 pick he will cost us 2400 points, our two first pick will be worth 1500. Gaining a couple of picks in the 40s shouldn't be too hard and make up the required points.

With a decent likelihood of the pick falling after Ashcroft, to get maximum value we’d have to trade that pick again into 2023. Just doubles our chances of losing value, especially as we’d be needing to move it.

From our point of view, the next two drafts will be viewed as restocking for a consistent period of success. We need to start developing some more higher end prospects, to replace Zorko and Rich especially. With your hypothetical, that development is delayed into the 2023 draft, when realistically Zorko will done and Rich on his last legs, ideally we start stocking now.
 

mattsmob

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The Ashcroft situation will work itself out next year. Best case as a standout number 1 pick he will cost us 2400 points, our two first pick will be worth 1500. Gaining a couple of picks in the 40s shouldn't be too hard and make up the required points.

With a decent likelihood of the pick falling after Ashcroft, to get maximum value we’d have to trade that pick again into 2023. Just doubles our chances of losing value, especially as we’d be needing to move it.

From our point of view, the next two drafts will be viewed as restocking for a consistent period of success. We need to start developing some more higher end prospects, to replace Zorko and Rich especially. With your hypothetical, that development is delayed into the 2023 draft, when realistically Zorko will done and Rich on his last legs, ideally we start stocking now.
Agree, I would be willing to somewhat sacrifice our 2023 draft hand with a deficit after the first round, especially if it strengthens our hand in this draft.
 

mattsmob

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Correct me if I’m wrong but I belive Danny Daly mentioned Fort coming here on a 3 year deal, what’s everyone’s thoughts on that? If list sizes go back up I can’t see it being much of an issue but if they remain the same I can’t see all of Fort, Fullarton, Lane and H. Smith being here in 3 years.
 

briztoon

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Did I miss hear Daly on the Roar Deal today, or did he say the club hopes to be a more active player in the trade period next year?

There’s this tall defender at Collingwood I like…
 

martinson

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Correct me if I’m wrong but I belive Danny Daly mentioned Fort coming here on a 3 year deal, what’s everyone’s thoughts on that? If list sizes go back up I can’t see it being much of an issue but if they remain the same I can’t see all of Fort, Fullarton, Lane and H. Smith being here in 3 years.
Correct.

So obviously they have something in mind with one or two of the other 3.
 

mattsmob

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Did I miss hear Daly on the Roar Deal today, or did he say the club hopes to be a more active player in the trade period next year?

There’s this tall defender at Collingwood I like…
Yeah I heard that as well but where is the money coming from next season that isn’t here this season?
 

dlanod

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Correct me if I’m wrong but I belive Danny Daly mentioned Fort coming here on a 3 year deal, what’s everyone’s thoughts on that? If list sizes go back up I can’t see it being much of an issue but if they remain the same I can’t see all of Fort, Fullarton, Lane and H. Smith being here in 3 years.
Three of those are still very much projects. I don't know about you but I rarely got 100% on projects - if two out of those three became AFL standard players that will still be a big win. One out of three, given where we got each (basketball, mid-season rookie, and late draft pick), is much more likely.
 

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WhiteLionFeva

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Three of those are still very much projects. I don't know about you but I rarely got 100% on projects - if two out of those three became AFL standard players that will still be a big win. One out of three, given where we got each (basketball, mid-season rookie, and late draft pick), is much more likely.
O out of 3 probably even more likely.
 

dlanod

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Yeah I heard that as well but where is the money coming from next season that isn’t here this season?
Some of these guys probably, either by delisting or smaller contracts on the rear of their career.

2022:
Darcy Gardiner
Thomas Berry
Noah Answerth
Daniel McStay
Cam Ellis-Yolman
Ely Smith
Nakia Cockatoo
Deven Robertson
Jaxon Prior
Ryan Lester
Deividas Uosis (R)
Blake Coleman
Henry Smith
Daniel Rich
Dayne Zorko
Carter Michael (R)
Connor McFadyen
Mitch Robinson
Keidean Coleman
Tom Fullarton
Kalin Lane (R)

Half our list off contract next year. I wonder if they've planned this over the last 12 months to ensure we have lots of picks to be able to match bids with low picks...
 

briztoon

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Some of these guys probably, either by delisting or smaller contracts on the rear of their career.

2022:
Darcy Gardiner
Thomas Berry
Noah Answerth
Daniel McStay
Cam Ellis-Yolman
Ely Smith
Nakia Cockatoo
Deven Robertson
Jaxon Prior
Ryan Lester
Deividas Uosis (R)
Blake Coleman
Henry Smith
Daniel Rich
Dayne Zorko
Carter Michael (R)
Connor McFadyen
Mitch Robinson
Keidean Coleman
Tom Fullarton
Kalin Lane (R)

Half our list off contract next year. I wonder if they've planned this over the last 12 months to ensure we have lots of picks to be able to match bids with low picks...
Didn’t Zorko re-sign for two more years?
 

briztoon

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Mitch Robbo unfortunately will be gone which will free up a bit if cash, plus the usual fringe players that go every year. Plus whatever we have tucked away secretly from this year.
Robbo isn’t on big money, or even mid level money. He said on his podcast he’s on role player level money.
 

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