Analysis 2021 trade thread

[scoman]

Having a job where you would be severely impacted by not being vaccinated would make you far less likely to be anti-vax

It wouldn't have been an issue until now.

 

[martinson]

Well 2-3% of Lions players, coaching staff, admin staff, parents, siblings, wives, girlfriends, husbands and boyfriends would be a considerable amount. Also, I'm not sure being attached to a sporting team makes you less likely to be anti vax.

Anyway I will leave it there. The mandatory Vax thing will be quite interesting I think. I doubt any of the players refuse tbh, I just think some would be fielding some pretty strong opinions from those close to them, as are manny people in our community.

Fwiiw I agree that anyone is entitled to take a viewpoint on these things and as long as they're not shoving it down everyone's throat and adhering to whatever regulatory requirements are in place for travel, whatever, I don't see that it needs to be any issue.

Some people are all for tolerance and individual freedom of choice unless it's something that they disagree with.

 

[Nunez]

Hippy is well ahead with his rehab program......he will be back in 2022 guaranteed. Don't understand why you or anyone else would be surprised given almost every acl injury similar to Hippy's takes no more than 12 months. Where do you get your intel from to make that comment?

Guesswork like most posters.

 

[jackess]

Guesswork like most posters.

Setting up an 'I told you so' in 9 months time when his return is delayed

 

[Dalions]

I don't pretend to know what Eric's prognosis is either but from people in the medical profession I've spoken to his particular ACL tear was on the information available a significant one.

I don't want him back until he's made a full recovery. I doubt we'll be pushing him. But if the team's going well and we're in contention again it's good for his morale and devotion to his rehab program that there's hope there for next year if things go well. It's a tough grind for an otherwise fit young man.

You either partially tear an ACL or you fully tear an ACL.
Unless there are complications with the reconstruction surgery for the ACL then having meniscus damage will not hamper his ACL recovery.
As the meniscus recovery period is much shorter.

 

[Nunez]

Setting up an 'I told you so' in 9 months time when his return is delayed

Nothing wrong with predicting and guesswork - all part of a forum full of fans.

So long as people don't mistake their own opinion as fact.

 

[martinson]

You either partially tear an ACL or you fully tear an ACL.
Unless there are complications with the reconstruction surgery for the ACL then having meniscus damage will not hamper his ACL recovery.
As the meniscus recovery period is much shorter.

Well thanks for pointing that out Dalions.

Some people have offered me a differing opinion based on their experience but I guess anecdotal experience and opinions are just that at the end of the day. The vast majority of the people presenting with the issue aren't professional footballers either.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Having a job where you would be severely impacted by not being vaccinated would make you far less likely to be anti-vax

While this is true, plenty of nurses are refusing to get vaccines, especially in the US, and would rather lose their job than comply with a vaccine mandate.

 

[briztoon]

Hippy is well ahead with his rehab program......he will be back in 2022 guaranteed. Don't understand why you or anyone else would be surprised given almost every acl injury similar to Hippy's takes no more than 12 months. Where do you get your intel from to make that comment?

I don’t get intel. I don’t have any connections with the club.

 

[jackess]

While this is true, plenty of nurses are refusing to get vaccines, especially in the US, and would rather lose their job than comply with a vaccine mandate.

Thankfully we're not in the US

 

[briztoon]

Setting up an 'I told you so' in 9 months time when his return is delayed

Why?

That generally doesn’t cross my mind when I engage in a conversation about about whatever topic.

If it was, I would have said something when we traded Hanley and let Rockliff walk for the compo pick.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Some people are all for tolerance and individual freedom of choice unless it's something that they disagree with.

In most areas of life that'd seem like a silly stance, but when it comes to public safety the stakes are different, because people's individual freedom of choice can place everyone around them at greater risk. So I understand that attitude in this context.

That said, I generally don't think people should be forced to be vaccinated if they don't work in spaces frequented by likely Covid carriers. But the AFL is entitled to put safety first, because one positive case can end up derailing the entire competition for months. It's a business decision at the end of the day.

 

[Mavlions1961]

While this is true, plenty of nurses are refusing to get vaccines, especially in the US, and would rather lose their job than comply with a vaccine mandate.

Not only in the US. Here at home also


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[jackess]

Why?

That generally doesn’t cross my mind when I engage in a conversation about about whatever topic.

If it was, I would have said something when we traded Hanley and let Rockliff walk for the compo pick.

What were your thoughts on the Melbourne pickswap? I'm not sure I've heard them multiple times yet

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Not only in the US. Here at home also


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Correct, that's why I said "especially in the US".

 

[briztoon]

In most areas of life that'd seem like a silly stance, but when it comes to public safety the stakes are different, because people's individual freedom of choice can place everyone around them at greater risk. So I understand that attitude in this context.

That said, I generally don't think people should be forced to be vaccinated if they don't work in spaces frequented by likely Covid carriers. But the AFL is entitled to put safety first, because one positive case can end up derailing the entire competition for months. It's a business decision at the end of the day.

When Australia reaches 80% vaccination, and we open up and stop with lockdowns, everyone will be a potential Covid carrier.

I don’t know how you will identify “likely Covid carriers”, or the spaces they frequent.

Being vaccinated won’t stop you being a carrier or spreader. It just greatly increases your chances of not becoming seriously ill, ending up in hospital or dying.

 

[briztoon]

What were your thoughts on the Melbourne pickswap? I'm not sure I've heard them multiple times yet

If it’s not brought up as a discussion topic, then I rarely bring it up, but seeing as you asked…

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I don’t know how you will identify “likely Covid carriers”, or the spaces they frequent.

I thought the answer was blindingly obvious. Hospitals and hotel quarantine are the spaces they frequent.

Being vaccinated won’t stop you being a carrier or spreader. It just greatly increases your chances of not becoming seriously ill, ending up in hospital or dying.

I never said it did. But it does reduce the time period for which you're infectious, actually.

 

[briztoon]

I thought the answer was blindingly obvious. Hospitals and hotel quarantine are the spaces they frequent.


I never said it did. But it does reduce the time period for which you're infectious, actually.

Covid carriers will be everywhere. There won’t be hotel quarantine for Covid positive people.

Just looking at the UK experience, when they opened back up, they were reporting 30k cases a day.

I haven’t read any modelling on what Australia expects will happen, but my expectation is that cases will explode, and that most people will catch it within the first 12 to 24 months. It will rip through primary schools and daycare’s.

We just won’t be going in to lockdowns, and hopefully most people will be asymptotic, or only have mild cases.

My work already has separate Covid leave in place, that’s separate from our sick leave.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Covid carriers will be everywhere. There won’t be hotel quarantine for Covid positive people.

You misunderstand. Plenty of people coming from overseas are found to have Covid while in hotel quarantine. Remember how the current NSW Delta outbreak started?

 

[T Rick]

Hippy is well ahead with his rehab program......he will be back in 2022 guaranteed. Don't understand why you or anyone else would be surprised given almost every acl injury similar to Hippy's takes no more than 12 months. Where do you get your intel from to make that comment?

Good news about Hippy's rehab!

 

[briztoon]

You misunderstand. Plenty of people coming from overseas are found to have Covid while in hotel quarantine. Remember how the current NSW Delta outbreak started?

Ok. I just don’t believe that will be a factor going forward, because it will be active in the community already.

I don’t believe NSW or Vic will get down to 0 (zero) before they open up. Both states have already said getting back to Covid Zero is not going to happen.

Which likely means QLD, SA, WA, etc will all likely end up in lockdowns until each state gets to 80% vaccination, because once Vic and NSW open up and learn to live with Covid, we won’t be keeping it out of the other states.

And then you look at the USA, where a lot districts are pushing for mandatory mask use. Even in primary schools.

Masks are possibly here to stay for much longer than just until Christmas, which was a throw away line from QLD’s chief health officer a while ago now.

 

[PattyKwasagun]

Ok. I just don’t believe that will be a factor going forward, because it will be active in the community already.

I don’t believe NSW or Vic will get down to 0 (zero) before they open up. Both states have already said getting back to Covid Zero is not going to happen.

Which likely means QLD, SA, WA, etc will all likely end up in lockdowns until each state gets to 80% vaccination, because once Vic and NSW open up and learn to live with Covid, we won’t be keeping it out of the other states.

And then you look at the USA, where a lot districts are pushing for mandatory mask use. Even in primary schools.

Masks are possibly here to stay for much longer than just until Christmas, which was a throw away line from QLD’s chief health officer a while ago now.

Of course, the benefit we have over the US is our vaccination numbers. We are only 1% behind them now in first doses administered, and we're only just over halfway through the quantity of Australians who are expected to get vaccinated.

We undeniably have vaccine hesitancy here, but it's nowhere near as bad as the US. They have completely stalled at 56% fully vaccinated. The recent poll from the Melbourne Institute would suggest we will hit 80% fully vaccinated relatively easily, and will probably not have too much trouble getting to 90% once things open up and unvaccinated people see the freedoms that are available to them if they choose to get the jab.

At 90% with vaccines that are expected now on the whole to provide long-lasting (perhaps even life-long in some aspects) protection against hospitalisation/severe disease/death, it'll be a totally different case and we probably can move beyond masks for the most part.

Anyway, in relation to what this means for the trade period, I am quite sure all AFL & AFLW players have been told they effectively won't be able to play next year if they aren't vaccinated. Not from the PoV of their clubs or the league, but because of problems travelling between states and mixing inside the club. I think it's a very safe bet that the whole league will be vaccinated by round 1 - I don't think those who would be hesitant will be so steadfast on that to let it cost them their career.

 

[briztoon]

Of course, the benefit we have over the US is our vaccination numbers. We are only 1% behind them now in first doses administered, and we're only just over halfway through the quantity of Australians who are expected to get vaccinated.

We undeniably have vaccine hesitancy here, but it's nowhere near as bad as the US. They have completely stalled at 56% fully vaccinated. The recent poll from the Melbourne Institute would suggest we will hit 80% fully vaccinated relatively easily, and will probably not have too much trouble getting to 90% once things open up and unvaccinated people see the freedoms that are available to them if they choose to get the jab.

At 90% with vaccines that are expected now on the whole to provide long-lasting (perhaps even life-long in some aspects) protection against hospitalisation/severe disease/death, it'll be a totally different case and we probably can move beyond masks for the most part.

Anyway, in relation to what this means for the trade period, I am quite sure all AFL & AFLW players have been told they effectively won't be able to play next year if they aren't vaccinated. Not from the PoV of their clubs or the league, but because of problems travelling between states and mixing inside the club. I think it's a very safe bet that the whole league will be vaccinated by round 1 - I don't think those who would be hesitant will be so steadfast on that to let it cost them their career.

What I would like to know, even if/when we reach 90% vaccination rates, what the current modelling shows for the spread of Covid amongst the vaccinated population.

 

[martinson]

What I would like to know, even if/when we reach 90% vaccination rates, what the current modelling shows for the spread of Covid amongst the vaccinated population.

No one has the answer to that.

Modelling is our only way of predicting the future in any academic sense in all spheres from financial to health issues, but has often proved to be wildly inaccurate on occasions

Vaccines aren't going to reduce infections . Mortality hopefully . But it's our only excuse for opening up.

What we don't want to see is another mutation for which no one is prepared.