Analysis 2021 trade thread

[Section 5]

He'd honestly be a worthwhile acquisition and is definitely an upgrade on Archie in the emergency ruck category, however I'm not sure he's a list fit. Would he be willing to come to Queensland to be a back for the same money as Casboult? No. He'll be looking for a spot where he can take the next step. We don't have that. We have developing rucks which is essentially what he'd be. We need a buster who's willing to be back up and take up no 1 role in an emergency and our cap means they need to do it for minimal rates. Levi can do that and with his skill set he can potentially be a part of the 22 until Hipwood is ready, potentially beyond, until 2023 anyway.

More than likely we don't get either Casboult or Lynch
Personally i think they would cost about the same $ wise but that is just a guess on my part
The issue for me is teams can always cover a R/F at a pinch but if Oscar goes down that is a different case altogether

 

[pulpdriver]

More than likely we don't get either Casboult or Lynch
Personally i think they would cost about the same $ wise but that is just a guess on my part
The issue for me is teams can always cover a R/F at a pinch but if Oscar goes down that is a different case altogether

I think Casboult would be a possibility, especially with this news dropping so soon after our list management meeting. Lynch would be less than 2% chance.

 

[BangyBangy]

His set shot conversion improved over the last couple of years IIRC, his rucking is ok and at least can provide a contest with his big 32 year old body.

FTFY

Levi is going to be 32 when the next season commences. Are we going to trade in some break glass in case of emergency player for the break glass in case of emergency player when he is injured more than Big O is?

 

[Section 5]

That has to be taking in to account part time workers, etc.

But your owning a home point is valid. It’s ridiculous how much the price of homes has increased in the past 20 years.

From the ABS site
Australia

Average weekly earnings, seasonally adjusted

	May 2021	% Change May 2020 to May 2021
	$
Males Full-time adult average weekly ordinary time earnings (a)	1,837.00	1.4
Full-time adult average weekly total earnings	1,921.10	1.6
All employees average weekly total earnings (a)	1,555.30	1.1
Females Full-time adult average weekly ordinary time earnings (a)	1,575.50	1.1
Full-time adult average weekly total earnings	1,597.80	1.3
All employees average weekly total earnings	1,069.10	-1.3
Persons Full-time adult average weekly ordinary time earnings (a)	1,737.10	1.4
Full-time adult average weekly total earnings	1,798.00	1.6
All employees average weekly total earnings (a)	1,305.80	0.1

(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

 

[Dalions]

That has to be taking in to account part time workers, etc.

But your owning a home point is valid. It’s ridiculous how much the price of homes has increased in the past 20 years.

We bought our house in 98’ for 130k
Have since put about 300-350k into it but still…

 

[pulpdriver]

We bought our house in 98’ for 130k
Have since put about 309-350k into it but still…

And what is your asset now worth relative to your investment?

 

[Dalions]

And what is your asset now worth relative to your investment?

Would think around 1.5

 

[pulpdriver]

Would think around 1.5

seems conservative based on current trends and appraisals.

 

[Dalions]

seems conservative based on current trends and appraisals.

You may be right, haven’t been keeping a close eye on the market.
Only about 3.5k from the City as the crow flies.

 

[Nuggo]

Maybe I'm misremembering but weren't we one of the only teams to not ask/demand our players take a pay reduction after the Covid impact? It's only logical we're feeling the squeeze.

Has been noted on this forum as the case but I am not 100% sure. Very hard to get accurate information on this kind of stuff.

 

[pulpdriver]

Has been noted on this forum as the case but I am not 100% sure. Very hard to get accurate information on this kind of stuff.

It's been mentioned a lot and referenced quite often in articles but like you said nothing concrete. I tend to think based on what we've heard and us suddenly being in a tight cap might be somewhat connected.

 

[M Malice]

FTFY

Levi is going to be 32 when the next season commences. Are we going to trade in some break glass in case of emergency player for the break glass in case of emergency player when he is injured more than Big O is?

You can't cover all contingencies BB.

 

[pulpdriver]

You can't cover all contingencies BB.

View attachment 1239101

(pictured Collingwood Football Club list 2022)

 

[POBT]

I wonder what it means our cap is tight. Ie Collingwood tight or tight but still allowance for current player growth.

I don't think we're in trouble with the cap. It is putting a limit on our ability to be active in trades though.

 

[briztoon]

From the ABS site
Australia

Average weekly earnings, seasonally adjusted

	$
	May 2021	% Change May 2020 to May 2021
Males Full-time adult average weekly ordinary time earnings (a)	1,837.00	1.4
Full-time adult average weekly total earnings	1,921.10	1.6
All employees average weekly total earnings (a)	1,555.30	1.1
Females Full-time adult average weekly ordinary time earnings (a)	1,575.50	1.1
Full-time adult average weekly total earnings	1,597.80	1.3
All employees average weekly total earnings	1,069.10	-1.3
Persons Full-time adult average weekly ordinary time earnings (a)	1,737.10	1.4
Full-time adult average weekly total earnings	1,798.00	1.6
All employees average weekly total earnings (a)	1,305.80	0.1

(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

That’s great, but doesn’t take in to account part time or casual work force.

My current place of employment, employs ~5000 people. Fully half are on permanent part time, with a fixed 30.4 hours a fortnight component and the rest rostered as needed.

My previous employer ALH, the largest pub and hotel company in Australia (170+ pubs in QLD alone), has a largely 80% casual work force. One of the smaller pubs I used to manage had 4 full time positions and 24 casuals.

 

[briztoon]

It's been mentioned a lot and referenced quite often in articles but like you said nothing concrete. I tend to think based on what we've heard and us suddenly being in a tight cap might be somewhat connected.

Anyone writing for AFL.com has access to the league’s figure, etc.

 

[pulpdriver]

Anyone writing for AFL.com has access to the league’s figure, etc.

And we should believe everything they say because there's zero chance they are influenced by their editors and beyond

 

[Section 5]

That’s great, but doesn’t take in to account part time or casual work force.

My current place of employment, employs ~5000 people. Fully half are on permanent part time, with a fixed 30.4 hours a fortnight component and the rest rostered as needed.

My previous employer ALH, the largest pub and hotel company in Australia (170+ pubs in QLD alone), has a largely 80% casual work force. One of the smaller pubs I used to manage had 4 full time positions and 24 casuals.

Most people are not on the average wage that is regularly quoted by the ABS and in turn the media
The ABS exclude certain employers.
Excluded are Defense forces, enterprises primarily engaged in agriculture, forestry and fishing, overseas embassies, employees based outside Australia + some others

I assume casuals are included in the three separate figures " All employees average weekly total earnings "
Male $1555 Female $1069 Persons (both) $1305
My reason for the "casuals" assumption is this paragraph

Also excluded are:

• casual employees who did not receive pay during the reference period;
• employees on leave without pay who did not receive pay during the reference period;
• employees on strike, or stood down, who did not receive pay during the reference period;
• directors who are not paid a salary;
• proprietors/partners of unincorporated businesses;
• self-employed persons such as subcontractors, owner/drivers, consultants;
• persons paid solely by commission without a retainer; and
• employees paid under the Australian Government's Paid Parental Leave Scheme.

Link if you want to delve further

Average Weekly Earnings, Australia, November 2024

Estimates of weekly earnings classified by industry, sector, state and territory

www.abs.gov.au

 

[dlanod]

(1)
Exactly.
Is their anyone recently that was going into their 11th season of AFL grind that has moved interstate for the reported $120 k + incentives

Without bothering to look up conclusive examples, plenty of oldies were delisted/retired and then came back elsewhere...

Vardy went to Eagles.
Petrie went to Eagles.
James McDonald went to GWS.
Stevie J went to GWS.
Hodge came to the Lions.
Birchall came to the Lions.

Probably more too but that's just the ones I can think of. It's not like player wages are public so I'm not about to address the $120k angle. Either he comes or he doesn't - I'm not too fussed about that angle.

 

[dlanod]

Anyone writing for AFL.com has access to the league’s figure, etc.

Not true. The AFL.com.au department are at arms length from the actual decision making/number crunching. They're less likely to put up wrong figures if putting out concrete figures but they are equally likely to be reporting based off other reported statements. There's a substantial conflict of interest in AFL.com.au being able to publicise figures that the actual league wants to be kept private.

 

[T Rick]

With regards to Levi - can anyone remember the age and circumstances involved in Ben Hudson

Ben Hudson

Age

47

Ht

199cm

Wt

106kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.2

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

9.0

5star

CL

4.1

5star

HO

17.3

5star

No current season stats available

D

6.4

2star

K

2.6

1star

HB

3.8

3star

HO

9.8

5star

coming to the Lions...was that a similar scenario to what Levi would be offering?

 

[davemc_lions]

The thing with Fullarton he is young although played a lot of footy as a junior then went to Basketball
Not he only played basketball and came to Footy late in life like others

For a Forward/Ruck I want him to be able to compete in the ruck, take a big grab and be reliable as shot at goal.
Not sure he excels at any of the three above. Good when ball hits the ground and nice hands.
Although not a big mark and does not kick many goals even in VFL
in 8 VFL games kicked 5-14 best was 3.3, 1.2, 1.1, 0.3, 0.2, 0.2 and 0.1.

- Tom Fullarton

vfl.aflmstats.com

In AFL 12 games hit the scoreboard 4 times 3 one goal games and one point game

Tom Fullarton of the Melbourne Demons AFL Games Played Stats

Tom Fullarton of the Melbourne Demons AFL games played and stats.

www.footywire.com

Compare that with other forwards we have when they started
Oscars stats

Oscar McInerney of the Brisbane Lions Career AFL Stats

Oscar McInerney of Brisbane Lions career AFL statistics

www.footywire.com

Or McStay

Daniel McStay of the Collingwood Magpies Career AFL Stats

Daniel McStay of Collingwood Magpies career AFL statistics

www.footywire.com

Or hipwood

Eric Hipwood of the Brisbane Lions Career AFL Stats

Eric Hipwood of Brisbane Lions career AFL statistics

www.footywire.com

He had a few games now.. Hopefully a presason he steps up more

Otherwise yes Levi or someone be a good stop gap

 

[mattsmob]

With regards to Levi - can anyone remember the age and circumstances involved in Ben Hudson coming to the Lions...was that a similar scenario to what Levi would be offering?

I think the main difference is Hudson was a genuine ruck whereas Casboult never has been, just a pinch-hitter. Also Hudson wasn't coming into a contending team. I'm not on the get Levi in train but it seems there is at least a little bit of interest from the club.

 

[Section 5]

Without bothering to look up conclusive examples, plenty of oldies were delisted/retired and then came back elsewhere...

Vardy went to Eagles.
Petrie went to Eagles.
James McDonald went to GWS.
Stevie J went to GWS.
Hodge came to the Lions.
Birchall came to the Lions.

Probably more too but that's just the ones I can think of. It's not like player wages are public so I'm not about to address the $120k angle. Either he comes or he doesn't - I'm not too fussed about that angle.

But that is not answering the basic question that started the conversation
Did they go for $120K + incentives
I doubt very much that the Lions 2 of Hodge & Birchall were on that basic money
I imagine all the others mentioned fall into that category too

 

[Squizz89]

I said a week or so ago that we could do worse than Levi, on the proviso he is over that knee issue of course.

With our “bomb it long down the line and reload” game plan that we run with, someone who can take contested marks certainly would not go astray, especially until Eric gets back.

He won’t be in the team to kick bags of goals, just compete and bring the ball to ground, and take the odd contested mark or two, something which Fullerton cannot do right now, but is something he will hopefully work on over the off season.

If we are bringing him in as back up ruck however, I’m not sure I’m as keen on that idea. I think if Oscar goes down and we are effectively relying on either a kid (Smith/Lane) or a key forward (Levi/Fullerton) play that role than we could be in trouble.