Analysis 2021 trade thread

[cotter101]

I have zero knowledge as to what he will do, but I’ll come close to shedding a tear if he doesn’t nominate us.

 

[BangyBangy]

Been a while since I've seen Dodongo on these boards, but I'll do a dodongo & say that if we do trade our 2022 first to get another high pick in this years draft, then i'll bet my proverbial we already know what Ashcroft is doing

 

[PattyKwasagun]

Been a while since I've seen Dodongo on these boards, but I'll do a dodongo & say that if we do trade our 2022 first to get another high pick in this years draft, then i'll bet my proverbial we already know what Ashcroft is doing

I think the club probably does have a reasonable sense, but I also think it's quite likely Will hasn't made his mind up for sure either way yet so you can't really lock anything in.

 

[briztoon]

I think it's worth noting that Ashcroft hasn't publicly (or privately that we are aware of) committed to the club yet - nor should he have at this point - so we do have to at least consider the possibility that he might not end up nominating us.

I think the odds of that are quite unlikely for a bunch of reasons, but when he's living in a different state and doesn't seem to have too much of a connection with the club yet, I think we need to be aware that there is at least some small possibility that he may choose to enter the open draft.

With that being possible and with us unlikely to get any further clarification on it until mid next year, I think it would be probably quite unwise to trade out our future first rounder unless the offer was too good to refuse. I'd probably do it for maybe pick 14 or better, but nothing less than that. It would essentially have to be able to stand on its own as a potential trade regardless of what happens with Will for us to consider it.

Also worth pointing out that assuming a normal season of junior football next year (fingers crossed), first rounders will be more valuable in 2022 than they are this year - because there'll be much more exposed form and much higher confidence in selections of Victorian prospects.

Have you listened to yesterday’s Roar Deal episode yet?

 

[briztoon]

briztoon Is pick 23 from the Doggies gettable?

Hypothetically if we did choose to trade our 2022 first rounder to get a third high pick this year would that be a target?

How does all the points stuff work for them? Is 23 going to be pushed back substantially anyway?

I could google it I'm sure, but I'm six Bacardi's in

**Edit: And I don't pour single shots

It all depends on how many picks they are able to take to the draft.

If they can take 5 picks to the draft, then it’s doable for both parties.

We could trade them pick 41 and next year’s first round pick, and get back 23, a future second and future third round pick.

It will make it hard to find enough points to match the Ashcroft bid next year. It would leave us ~600 points short of matching a bid at pick 2.

 

[briztoon]

Not yet - what was said?

The club had Ashcroft up here for a game at the Gold Coast this season, where he spoke with Fagan, etc.

Also…

Ashcroft finishes school this year, and the club is keen to get him up a few times throughout the preseason and season next year (Covid permitting).

 

[BangyBangy]

It all depends on how many picks they are able to take to the draft.

If they can take 5 picks to the draft, then it’s doable for both parties.

We could trade them pick 41 and next year’s first round pick, and get back 23, a future second and future third round pick.

It will make it hard to find enough points to match the Ashcroft bid next year. It would leave us ~600 points short of matching a bid at pick 2.

Just curious if it's worth going into hock in 2023 for (worst case scenario). Adding three top picks this year & Ashcroft & Fletcher next year.

Andrews, Starcevich, Rayner, Bailey, McCluggage, Hipwood are all pretty solid young players. Nail three high end picks this year and you have a pretty decent window opening up.

Could probably afford to take a hit in 2023.

(Listening to roar deal now btw).

Edit: No indication from the roar deal that we're going to do anything other than trying to package picks up & move 41 a little higher.

 

[RegionalLion]

With our first next year if we make prelims again our first would be pick 16 (I think we should make prelims at least with another year in our young group).

If we had to match bids on Ashcroft and Fletcher before 16 (a big if with Fletcher) that would push our pick back to 18 and decrease its value. I am not sure if there are any other father sons in first round contention but if they pop up pushes the value of our 1st back even further.

Although there is sense in trading when we know our picks value next year there could be more value trading it now when no one is sure. I don’t mind the doggies deal above - depends whose on the board though I suppose - if JVR was sliding that far and we had picked up Wilmont / Chester with 20 and Goater / Johnson / Knevitt (big body mid to complement what we have) or even Sinn with 16 that would be a pretty handy draft and set us up even if we go into deficit in 2023. But hopefully we can do some pick moving to get the points we need in 2022 to match bids.

 

[briztoon]

Just curious if it's worth going into hock in 2023 for (worst case scenario). Adding three top picks this year & Ashcroft & Fletcher next year.

Andrews, Starcevich, Rayner, Bailey, McCluggage, Hipwood are all pretty solid young players. Nail three high end picks this year and you have a pretty decent window opening up.

Could probably afford to take a hit in 2023.

(Listening to roar deal now btw).

Say we win the flag in 2023, and have pick 18, but we have 200 points deficit.

That drops us to pick 24.

That’s if there’s no father son kids in the top 25 in 2023.

I haven’t kept up with all the father son kids throughout the AFL, but I have a vague memory that there’s a lot in the next couple of years. And that’s not mentioning any norther academy kids, and I think Twomey is already talking up a GC academy kid for 2023.

But if we win a flag, who’s going to care…

 

[briztoon]

With our first next year if we make prelims again our first would be pick 16 (I think we should make prelims at least with another year in our young group).

If we had to match bids on Ashcroft and Fletcher before 16 (a big if with Fletcher) that would push our pick back to 18 and decrease its value. I am not sure if there are any other father sons in first round contention but if they pop up pushes the value of our 1st back even further.

Although there is sense in trading when we know our picks value next year there could be more value trading it now when no one is sure. I don’t mind the doggies deal above - depends whose on the board though I suppose - if JVR was sliding that far and we had picked up Wilmont with 20 and Goater / Johnson / Knevitt (big body mid to complement what we have) or even Sinn with 16 that would be a pretty handy draft and set us up even if we go into deficit in 2023.

Essendon have a probable first round father son kid next year.

The “value” of a draft pick is mostly influenced by two factors.

1. Does it have to be used to match a bid?

2. What is the strength of the draft at that point.

It doesn’t matter how far a pick is pushed back by father son kids, because those kids were never available to every club.

What does it matter if it’s pick 16 or 18? Exactly the same kids are available at the same pick, because it’s only kids who were not available to other clubs pushing the pick back.

The talk next year is that the depth of the top 20 is strong, especially with the amount of KPP’s potentially in the top 20.

 

[pulpdriver]

I think the club probably does have a reasonable sense, but I also think it's quite likely Will hasn't made his mind up for sure either way yet so you can't really lock anything in.

I'm a pragmatist too but I think it's gone beyond the point where we can entertain the possibility he won't come.

 

[Surly Boy]

I think we should hang onto next year's first rounder. If Ashcroft nominates us, the pick could be used to bring in another good player in the trade period, or we could trade the pick for points. If he doesn't (and there are no other first round academy prospects) we take it to the draft.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

Going to be interesting to watch how we accrue enough second and third round picks.

Our future (2023) picks probably don’t have the same attraction as Collingwood’s future picks had this year.

I’m still keen to trade our 2022 first for a first in 2023, and would have a late second round pick as the buyers premium.

And hopefully can trade our 2023 second round pick for another late 2022 second round pick.

That’s the ideal scenario isn’t it, I just don’t see us having the capital to execute it.

I think our 2022 first rounder will be needed for Ashcroft, and don’t see the club having the luxury to trade it, this year or next (unless it’s just generating points)

 

[dlanod]

I think it's worth noting that Ashcroft hasn't publicly (or privately that we are aware of) committed to the club yet - nor should he have at this point - so we do have to at least consider the possibility that he might not end up nominating us.

I think the odds of that are quite unlikely for a bunch of reasons, but when he's living in a different state and doesn't seem to have too much of a connection with the club yet, I think we need to be aware that there is at least some small possibility that he may choose to enter the open draft.

With that being possible and with us unlikely to get any further clarification on it until mid next year, I think it would be probably quite unwise to trade out our future first rounder unless the offer was too good to refuse. I'd probably do it for maybe pick 14 or better, but nothing less than that. It would essentially have to be able to stand on its own as a potential trade regardless of what happens with Will for us to consider it.

Also worth pointing out that assuming a normal season of junior football next year (fingers crossed), first rounders will be more valuable in 2022 than they are this year - because there'll be much more exposed form and much higher confidence in selections of Victorian prospects.

Didn't have you picked for a doomer!

 

[RegionalLion]

Essendon have a probable first round father son kid next year.

The “value” of a draft pick is mostly influenced by two factors.

1. Does it have to be used to match a bid?

2. What is the strength of the draft at that point.

It doesn’t matter how far a pick is pushed back by father son kids, because those kids were never available to every club.

What does it matter if it’s pick 16 or 18? Exactly the same kids are available at the same pick, because it’s only kids who were not available to other clubs pushing the pick back.

The talk next year is that the depth of the top 20 is strong, especially with the amount of KPP’s potentially in the top 20.

Good points, although it has no real difference if you are negotiating with us for that pick there may be a little more leverage if they know it will be pick 18 or 19 - it makes no real difference but if you were negotiating it would be something you bring up to try to reduce the value we get in return as we would likely be the instigator of a trade.

So maybe there is value in just leaving it we could always trade with someone we think will get the spoon again and get a pick before Ashcroft (Hawthorn, Collingwood, Norths or Adelaide would love a premiership in 2022 )

 

[briztoon]

Good points, although it has no real difference if you are negotiating with us for that pick there may be a little more leverage if they know it will be pick 18 or 19 - it makes no real difference but if you were negotiating it would be something you bring up to try to reduce the value we get in return as we would likely be the instigator of a trade.

So maybe there is value in just leaving it we could always trade with someone we think will get the spoon again and get a pick before Ashcroft (Hawthorn, Collingwood, Norths or Adelaide would love a premiership in 2022 )

Bulldogs had no problem trading pick 17 this. They had multiple clubs come asking for it.

Only slid back 5 spots, and now have multiple clubs chasing their pick 23.

 

[jjami15]

I find it slightly perplexing that we actually lost picks next year but it’s a long way away. However I am glad that we left our first rounder for next year. I know we’ve said about hopefully moving up so it’ll be interesting if we are able to do that as you need a buyer. In regards to next years first I can see it being moved out into 2023. Something like this would be ok in my opinion;
Bris out - ‘23 first rounder and ‘24 second rounder. In ‘24 first rounder and ‘23 second rounder.
I would like to think that we could also try to swap some later ‘24 picks into ‘23 as well. Long way to go but our list seems quite settled so can see only 3/4 draftees coming in each year for awhile.

 

[ManeMan]

I find it slightly perplexing that we actually lost picks next year but it’s a long way away. However I am glad that we left our first rounder for next year. I know we’ve said about hopefully moving up so it’ll be interesting if we are able to do that as you need a buyer. In regards to next years first I can see it being moved out into 2023. Something like this would be ok in my opinion;
Bris out - ‘23 first rounder and ‘24 second rounder. In ‘24 first rounder and ‘23 second rounder.
I would like to think that we could also try to swap some later ‘24 picks into ‘23 as well. Long way to go but our list seems quite settled so can see only 3/4 draftees coming in each year for awhile.

I gather you mean '22 and '23? But yeah, that's what I'd like us to do also, end up with 2 first rounders in 23.

We may even end up using next year's first in a trade for a gun, which is fine, but I'd rather grab someone from FA. There's some decent free agents available next year, hopefully we are already in the ears of a few.

If not, no biggie. Take 2 firsts into the '23 draft, should have had a much better look at them than this year's draft crop.

 

[jjami15]

Yes apologies, 22 first rounder out etc.

 

[Flea_29]

I had a look yesterday at clubs that we could do a trade with to move our picks. There really was only a few - this is based on not using our '22 first rounder. The more I think about it would be better to use it next year, as we might get the most out of it.

Teams that would consider to trade picks with us

- ADEL (4,33,75,80), they might want to get more picks in between 33 and 75
> Trade 41 and 60 (558) for pick 33 (563)
Leaves ADEL with 4, 41, 60, 75 and us with 14, 18, 33, 54
We could even trade our pick 54 for their 2022 4th rounder

- COLL (27, 36, 46, 48, 55, 58, 78, 79), they might want more points
> Trade 27 (703) for picks 41, 54 & 60 (778)
Leaves COLL with 36, 41, 46, 48, 54, 55, 58, 60, 78, 79 and us with 14, 18 & 27
If Daicos goes pick 2, they will require 2014 points (picks 36, 41, 46, 48, 54, 55 & part of 58.

- STK (9, 62, 66, 67), they might want a pick in between 9 and 62
> Trade 9 (1469) and possibly a 2022 4th rounder for 14 and 41 (1573)
Leaves STK with 14, 41, 62, 66 and us with 9, 18, 54, 60
We could then trade 54 & 60 (366) to Coll for 46 (311) or WB for 45 (345). Leaves us with 9, 18, 45/46.

- WB (23, 41, 43, 44, 45, 52)
> Trading for 23 (815) would require us to use a 2022 pick as our points for 41, 54 and 60 come up to 778 (37 pt shortfall).
Not sure they would entertain a trade pick if they will be getting less points.

Others
- CARL pick 25, more than likely to keep the pick than move down to 41
- SYD, pick 31 (606). Might be a chance if they would like to get another pick (41 & 54) before their pick 70.
- WCE, pick 29/35. Might be a chance with pick 35.

- Don't bother (HAW, MELB, ESS, FREM, RICH, PORT, GWS, NTH, GEEL, GC)

 

[briztoon]

I had a look yesterday at clubs that we could do a trade with to move our picks. There really was only a few - this is based on not using our '22 first rounder. The more I think about it would be better to use it next year, as we might get the most out of it.

Teams that would consider to trade picks with us

- ADEL (4,33,75,80), they might want to get more picks in between 33 and 75
> Trade 41 and 60 (558) for pick 33 (563)
Leaves ADEL with 4, 41, 60, 75 and us with 14, 18, 33, 54
We could even trade our pick 54 for their 2022 4th rounder

- COLL (27, 36, 46, 48, 55, 58, 78, 79), they might want more points
> Trade 27 (703) for picks 41, 54 & 60 (778)
Leaves COLL with 36, 41, 46, 48, 54, 55, 58, 60, 78, 79 and us with 14, 18 & 27
If Daicos goes pick 2, they will require 2014 points (picks 36, 41, 46, 48, 54, 55 & part of 58.

- STK (9, 62, 66, 67), they might want a pick in between 9 and 62
> Trade 9 (1469) and possibly a 2022 4th rounder for 14 and 41 (1573)
Leaves STK with 14, 41, 62, 66 and us with 9, 18, 54, 60
We could then trade 54 & 60 (366) to Coll for 46 (311) or WB for 45 (345). Leaves us with 9, 18, 45/46.

- WB (23, 41, 43, 44, 45, 52)
> Trading for 23 (815) would require us to use a 2022 pick as our points for 41, 54 and 60 come up to 778 (37 pt shortfall).
Not sure they would entertain a trade pick if they will be getting less points.

Others
- CARL pick 25, more than likely to keep the pick than move down to 41
- SYD, pick 31 (606). Might be a chance if they would like to get another pick (41 & 54) before their pick 70.
- WCE, pick 29/35. Might be a chance with pick 35.

- Don't bother (HAW, MELB, ESS, FREM, RICH, PORT, GWS, NTH, GEEL, GC)

I don’t see any team possibly making any of those trades.

As I’ve mentioned before, Collingwood doesn’t have unlimited list spots available to take 5 or 6 picks to the draft. At this stage I believe they have 4 available list spots, so can only take 4 picks to the draft, so they need to be able to match any bid with 4 picks only. (This could change if they delist players and rookie draft them).

Why would Adelaide trade back just to get late picks? Adelaide don’t need points. And purely on where picks will end up after unwanted picks are taken away by the AFL, pick 60 is about as valuable as pick 75 is to Adelaide. There might only be 2 or 3 spots between them by the draft.

St Kilda don’t need extra picks. They have two nga kids rated as second round prospects, one who is bordering on being a late first round prospect. They’ll take 9 to the draft, and match bids on their two kids. Talk has been they want to trade their future first round pick to get a second first round pick in this year’s draft.

And again, the Bulldogs don’t have unlimited list spots to take a lot of late picks to the draft.

 

[pulpdriver]

I had a look yesterday at clubs that we could do a trade with to move our picks. There really was only a few - this is based on not using our '22 first rounder. The more I think about it would be better to use it next year, as we might get the most out of it.

Teams that would consider to trade picks with us

- ADEL (4,33,75,80), they might want to get more picks in between 33 and 75
> Trade 41 and 60 (558) for pick 33 (563)
Leaves ADEL with 4, 41, 60, 75 and us with 14, 18, 33, 54
We could even trade our pick 54 for their 2022 4th rounder

- COLL (27, 36, 46, 48, 55, 58, 78, 79), they might want more points
> Trade 27 (703) for picks 41, 54 & 60 (778)
Leaves COLL with 36, 41, 46, 48, 54, 55, 58, 60, 78, 79 and us with 14, 18 & 27
If Daicos goes pick 2, they will require 2014 points (picks 36, 41, 46, 48, 54, 55 & part of 58.

- STK (9, 62, 66, 67), they might want a pick in between 9 and 62
> Trade 9 (1469) and possibly a 2022 4th rounder for 14 and 41 (1573)
Leaves STK with 14, 41, 62, 66 and us with 9, 18, 54, 60
We could then trade 54 & 60 (366) to Coll for 46 (311) or WB for 45 (345). Leaves us with 9, 18, 45/46.

- WB (23, 41, 43, 44, 45, 52)
> Trading for 23 (815) would require us to use a 2022 pick as our points for 41, 54 and 60 come up to 778 (37 pt shortfall).
Not sure they would entertain a trade pick if they will be getting less points.

Others
- CARL pick 25, more than likely to keep the pick than move down to 41
- SYD, pick 31 (606). Might be a chance if they would like to get another pick (41 & 54) before their pick 70.
- WCE, pick 29/35. Might be a chance with pick 35.

- Don't bother (HAW, MELB, ESS, FREM, RICH, PORT, GWS, NTH, GEEL, GC)

St Kilda have an absolutely abysmal draft hand. They really need to downgrade that 9 to get anything before 62.

edit: oh right, they've got their NGA kids.

 

[briztoon]

St Kilda have an absolutely abysmal draft hand. They really need to downgrade that 9 to get anything before 62.

No they don’t. They’ll probably trade a future third round pick to a team who has excess third round picks in this year’s draft, and that will give them enough points to match their nga kids.

 

[pulpdriver]

No they don’t. They’ll probably trade a future third round pick to a team who has excess third round picks in this year’s draft, and that will give them enough points to match their nga kids.

legit edited that post like thirty seconds after posting. How did you reply to it before the edit?

 

[mpal6]

I had a look yesterday at clubs that we could do a trade with to move our picks. There really was only a few - this is based on not using our '22 first rounder. The more I think about it would be better to use it next year, as we might get the most out of it.

Teams that would consider to trade picks with us

- ADEL (4,33,75,80), they might want to get more picks in between 33 and 75
> Trade 41 and 60 (558) for pick 33 (563)
Leaves ADEL with 4, 41, 60, 75 and us with 14, 18, 33, 54
We could even trade our pick 54 for their 2022 4th rounder

- COLL (27, 36, 46, 48, 55, 58, 78, 79), they might want more points
> Trade 27 (703) for picks 41, 54 & 60 (778)
Leaves COLL with 36, 41, 46, 48, 54, 55, 58, 60, 78, 79 and us with 14, 18 & 27
If Daicos goes pick 2, they will require 2014 points (picks 36, 41, 46, 48, 54, 55 & part of 58.

- STK (9, 62, 66, 67), they might want a pick in between 9 and 62
> Trade 9 (1469) and possibly a 2022 4th rounder for 14 and 41 (1573)
Leaves STK with 14, 41, 62, 66 and us with 9, 18, 54, 60
We could then trade 54 & 60 (366) to Coll for 46 (311) or WB for 45 (345). Leaves us with 9, 18, 45/46.

- WB (23, 41, 43, 44, 45, 52)
> Trading for 23 (815) would require us to use a 2022 pick as our points for 41, 54 and 60 come up to 778 (37 pt shortfall).
Not sure they would entertain a trade pick if they will be getting less points.

Others
- CARL pick 25, more than likely to keep the pick than move down to 41
- SYD, pick 31 (606). Might be a chance if they would like to get another pick (41 & 54) before their pick 70.
- WCE, pick 29/35. Might be a chance with pick 35.

- Don't bother (HAW, MELB, ESS, FREM, RICH, PORT, GWS, NTH, GEEL, GC)

Hawks were desperate for first rounders and willing to trade players for it. If we offer 14, we may be able to get 21 and 24 off them.

But other draft watchers have mentioned players available at 14 would be slightly higher rated than the mid 20s picks so I doubt we'll do that either. We might just draft 14 and 18, see whose available in 20s and if its someone we rate - might trade in our future first.