2021 Trades - the wins and losses

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powerrrrrrrrrrrr

powerrrrrrrrrrrr

Norm Smith Medallist
Veteran Sin City Swamp Rats - Sweet F.A.
Feb 17, 2010
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adelaide
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Warning - long post incoming!

Now that my season is officially over, it is time to have a look back at where it all went wrong and some of the bad decisions that i made at the trade table.

Round 2: Dangerfield (Sus) and Young to Mills and Markov. A fine start to the season like many with Danger being suspended in round 1 and a swap for Markov after he toned up in round 1. In hindsight i should have gone Young for Cummings but i think i will have to declare this a win / win at this stage. Neither Mills or Markov remained in my team.

Round 3: Gaff and Webster (Inj) to Butters and Walker. Gaff was a terrible started and cost me $100k plus too start the year. He then went on to score 150 off in round 3. Walker was a big win at this stage trading him in early and Butters was injured after 2 games. Neither Butters or Walker remained in my team.

Round 4: De Goey and Dow to Ridley and Waterman. De Goey was struggling to hit 50s in the forward pocket while at this stage Ridley was still hitting out hundreds. Ridley scored 110 in my first game in the team and then concussed on 15 in his second. Waterman i hoped would be a cashcow but that failed. I wasnt able to get JDG back in my team when he finally moved to the mids. Neither Ridley or Waterman remained in my team.

Round 5: Butters (Inj) and Rowe to Treacy and Crouch. After a whole two games in my team, Butters was out and Crouch was under priced. Not much else needs to be said about the second trade. Both Crouch and Treacy remained in my team.

Round 6: Ridley (Inj) and Berry to Dunkley and Fin Macrae. Finally managed to get Dunkley into my team but he lasted a whole 1 week and did his shoulder in his debut game for me. Finn was a mistake taking him over Poulter. Neither remained in my team.

Round 7: Dunkley (inj) and Flynn to Gawn and Dev Robertson. Needed to settle my ruck lineup and this was the only way to get the cash for Gawn with Dunkley going down. Robertson became a decent cash cow for a couple months. Only Gawn remained in the side.

Round 8: Waterman and Gulden to Hall and RCD. This was one of my big wins for the season and getting in Hall while still in the 500s. Hall remained in my team.

Round 9: Hunter (Saints) and Walker (Inj) for Ridley and Ronin o Connor. With Walker falling in cash and picking up an ankle injury and scoring 20, i wanted to get Ridley in after he had plummeted in price and thought he would get back to his early season form and getting 100s. This was a fail as was O'Connor who couldn't hold a spot in the Crows lineup. Neither remained in my team.

Round 10: Bergman and Powell to Martin and Hewitt. Started planning for the byes moving a couple first round byes to later. This of course fell apart when the Rich game was moved. Hewitt was a bad move and i should have gone for Byrnes but over thought it. Neither remained in my team.

Round 11: Ridley and Scott to Jelly and Bianco. Needed to cut my losses with Ridley and cull him early as it was clear he wasn't returning to form. Bianco was a good cashcow and remains in my team.

Round 12: Grundy (Inj), Warner (Inj) and Dev Rob to O Brien, Houston and Heeney. ROB was very solid from this point on until his injury. Houston was returning from a shoulder and put together some yo yo performances. Heeney had just come off a big 130+ game but then was allergic to the ball from this time on. Only Houston remains in my team.

Round 13: RCD, Jordan and Fin Macrae too Newcombe, Amarty and Ellis. Two decent looking rookies had come from nowhere and Ellis had been killing it with some big games. None remained in my side with Ellis copping a hammy later.

Round 14: Hewitt, Short, Martin and Heeney to Mitchell, Greene, Neale and Briggs. The change in the bye structure with the change of the Richmond game forced me to change my plans too field a team. Mitchell was a great move and went on to hit some big scores for the rest of the year. Neale got injured a few weeks later. Greene was only in as i couldn't afford Hunter and know one else in the price range (later suspended for covid and elbow). Mitchell and Greene remain in the side.

Round 15: Kosi and Phillips (finally) for Hunter and Williams. Finally managed to get Hunter but he continued to under-perform. Williams was a bad downgrade and only played 1 game. Williams remains in my side.

Round 16: Neale (Inj) and Doch (Inj) for Whitfield and Short. Injuries started to hit and this is where it goes into free fall. Whitfield injured in a weeks time and gave Short another chance after a forced trade earlier. Short remains in the team.

Round 17: Markov (Inj) and Newcombe for Gracia and Danger. Time to bring back Danger but a week later than i had planned after he went 150 against the bombers and increased in price by 60k. Both remain in the team.

Round 18: Whitfield (Inj) and Hunter for Laird and Bowes. Hunter had been under-performing and Bowes killed it too start the season. This trade did not pay off. Whitfield concussed on 20 odd and was an out. Laird was smashing it and was a good option and remains in the team.

Round 19: Ellis (Inj) and Mills (Sus) for Wines and Tim Kelly. Having already lost Mills and Greene to suspension this week, Ellis pulling a hammy on 10 killed me. Kelly had knocked up some good scores and 100s in a return to form and was under-priced. Wines had been going huge at this point and looked a good option with the upcoming draw. Both have been disappointing, lost 100k each and Kelly now injured. Wines remains in my team.

Round 20: Amarty (Dropped) and Highmore (Inj) for Marshall and Jeffrey. Marshall trade was a big win but my hand was forced with Amarty being dropped to get rid of him as my bench cover. Both remain in the side.

Round 21: Bowes (dropped) and Jelly (Inj) for Stewart and Sidebottom. With limited options for Jelly being a late out i jumped at shadows and went for Sidebottom. Stewart who i had been chasing all year lasted a whole week in my team. Sidebottom remains in the team.

Round 22: ROB (inj) and Stewart (Inj) for Whitfield and Ziebel. Running out of options and went for two who had been cruising around and picking up points at ease. Both failed me and Ziebel got his lowest score of the year.

Round 23: Kelly (Inj) and Fullerton for Amon and random 170k rookie. Another injury affected sub score with Kelly going down on 28. Year over and out.

So looking back at all these trades, there was some very poor decisions, bad luck and very few trades that paid off and players remained in the team.

Out of 44 trades:
-17 remained in the side from that point on.
- Only 7/23 rounds was there not injuries / suspensions which dictated trades
- Ridley, Short, Danger and Whitfield were traded out and back in. Wasted trades.
- 18 trades were due to injuries to my on-field players and premos.
- 2 Trades for suspensions.
- 10 trades were spent on players who then went onto get injured shortly after.

Coming out of the byes i was well positioned for a run home for the cap but poor earlier trades and mounting injuries meant i was unable to finalise my team with upgrades for the likes of JDG, Miller, Steale, Guthrie, Oliver and the other fallen premos at the time.

In summary, i traded terribly this year and this is the outcome.

How did we all fair and were others similar to myself and the Pies list management team or do we have some traders we should be taking tips from next season?
 
Last edited:
Not going that hard but there are some excellent and terrible ones that are easy to remember. Not sure exact rounds and prices but:

Good
Trac @ ~750 around the byes some time
Titch @ ~750 similar time
Guthrie when he bottomed out (about 6 weeks ago)
De Goat
Stringer
Ziepig in for his 170 (didn't C unfortunately)
Lyons before last round of byes
Hall the week after Ziepig

Bad
Hunter
Neale (he was off two 110+ scores too then barely hit 80 from there till injury)
Reeves (for 1 week which he was a late withdrawal then traded to the Party the following week when I could have just gone straight to Party - what sort of campaigner gets injured at training after selection?)
Danger
Rantall, who never scored for me and went up 2k. Been on my bench doing SFA since his debut.
Parish (for his 80 odd at peak price - traded to Lyons after one week which actually turned out to be genius except I had Lyons locked in the week before, all week until late when I switched to Parish - cost me about 30 k and 80 points (Lyons went 160 that week).
Not getting Touk the same week I got Parish. Someone on here convinced me he'd get tagged. He went 140 I think.
Whit last week for 80

There are probably others in both categories but those stick in my mind.
 
Joao said:
Not going that hard but there are some excellent and terrible ones that are easy to remember. Not sure exact rounds and prices but:

Good
Trac @ ~750 around the byes some time
Titch @ ~750 similar time
Guthrie when he bottomed out (about 6 weeks ago)
De Goat
Stringer
Ziepig in for his 170 (didn't C unfortunately)
Lyons before last round of byes
Hall the week after Ziepig

Bad
Hunter
Neale (he was off two 110+ scores too then barely hit 80 from there till injury)
Reeves (for 1 week which he was a late withdrawal then traded to the Party the following week when I could have just gone straight to Party - what sort of campaigner gets injured at training after selection?)
Danger
Rantall, who never scored for me and went up 2k. Been on my bench doing SFA since his debut.
Parish (for his 80 odd at peak price - traded to Lyons after one week which actually turned out to be genius except I had Lyons locked in the week before, all week until late when I switched to Parish - cost me about 30 k and 80 points (Lyons went 160 that week).
Not getting Touk the same week I got Parish. Someone on here convinced me he'd get tagged. He went 140 I think.
Whit last week for 80

There are probably others in both categories but those stick in my mind.
Click to expand...

Getting onto Trac and Guthrie at that price was a huge win. As much I tried I just kept missing them.

Also great pickup with Ziebel early in the season. I think his 170 is when everyone paid attention to him so too get him before was ahead of the game I think
 

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powerrrrrrrrrrrr said:
Getting onto Trac and Guthrie at that price was a huge win. As much I tried I just kept missing them.

Also great pickup with Ziebel early in the season. I think his 170 is when everyone paid attention to him so too get him before was ahead of the game I think
Click to expand...
Yeah I cursed myself for making the Parish mistake as Lyons was the go (was 80k cheaper) and I panicked. Haven't paid over 800k for anyone since until Zorko last week.

If you missed the 170 Ziebell is actually pretty ordinary. With that 170 it's good. Plus the joy of watching that game alone was worth it (it was against Freo).
 
I do probably need to analyse my moves a bit more each year so I can try and improve in following years. But it is always so easy looking back in hindsight what was/wasn't the move to make.

Yet in the moment you often feel there's only 1 move you can make.

But here goes:
Trades broken down into the following categories (i sort of just picked these at random as brackets).

1) 170-250k ie cows
2) 250-350k fomo cows or hopes they can hold a spot in your 22 for a bit and become a mid pricer stepping stone.
3) 350-500k cheap mid pricers or fallen mid pricers. Hold a spot in 22. generate some coin while doing so.
4) 500-700k stronger mid pricer, fallen premo
5) 700-800k premo or fallen elite premo
6) $800k+ elite premo.

I'll give each trade a pass/fail just based off gut feel on whether they fulfilled their purpose. Not really looking at who i traded out.

So my results (obviously not counting this weeks trades):

Category / number of trades / pass %

1. 12trades. 92% pass* Disclaimer that the only fail was Fin Macrae @ $247k so he was right on the limit.
2. 6 trades 16% pass* Disclaimer that the only pass was Sharp @ $251k so right on that lower limit.
3. 3 trades 0% pass
4. 14 trades 36% pass
5. 8 trades 75% pass
6. 3 trades 100% pass.

So as always, guns and rooks my friends. Tried and true and will never fail.

Analysing these categories:
1. Can't go wrong with cheap cows.
2. Chasing rookies over $250k is fraught with danger and generally doesn't go well. 1 bad game and they're done.
3. Stay away from $300-$500k players. They're cheap for a reason.
4. $500-$700k. Again steer clear. Hall and Harmes were the success picks in that bracket. But generally high odds of a fail here.... and they're cheap for a reason. Don't catch falling knives.
5. $700-$800k. Good shopping bracket for the fallen uber premos. Buy premos who've hit a low, not those who excel and break into this bracket.
6. Pretty hard to fail here, but dollars limit these moves till byes or late in the year.

I was going to do this process for the starting lineups but the app doesn't backdate prices so made this impossible. I suspect the % would be similar although I'd have a few extra passes in the lower brackets (Markov/Fantasia for example) and a few extra fails in the higher brackets due to injuries or total lemons (Gaff).
 
Neale4brownlow said:
I do probably need to analyse my moves a bit more each year so I can try and improve in following years. But it is always so easy looking back in hindsight what was/wasn't the move to make.

Yet in the moment you often feel there's only 1 move you can make.

But here goes:
Trades broken down into the following categories (i sort of just picked these at random as brackets).

1) 170-250k ie cows
2) 250-350k fomo cows or hopes they can hold a spot in your 22 for a bit and become a mid pricer stepping stone.
3) 350-500k cheap mid pricers or fallen mid pricers. Hold a spot in 22. generate some coin while doing so.
4) 500-700k stronger mid pricer, fallen premo
5) 700-800k premo or fallen elite premo
6) $800k+ elite premo.

I'll give each trade a pass/fail just based off gut feel on whether they fulfilled their purpose. Not really looking at who i traded out.

So my results (obviously not counting this weeks trades):

Category / number of trades / pass %

1. 12trades. 92% pass* Disclaimer that the only fail was Fin Macrae @ $247k so he was right on the limit.
2. 6 trades 16% pass* Disclaimer that the only pass was Sharp @ $251k so right on that lower limit.
3. 3 trades 0% pass
4. 14 trades 36% pass
5. 8 trades 75% pass
6. 3 trades 100% pass.

So as always, guns and rooks my friends. Tried and true and will never fail.

Analysing these categories:
1. Can't go wrong with cheap cows.
2. Chasing rookies over $250k is fraught with danger and generally doesn't go well. 1 bad game and they're done.
3. Stay away from $300-$500k players. They're cheap for a reason.
4. $500-$700k. Again steer clear. Hall and Harmes were the success picks in that bracket. But generally high odds of a fail here.... and they're cheap for a reason. Don't catch falling knives.
5. $700-$800k. Good shopping bracket for the fallen uber premos. Buy premos who've hit a low, not those who excel and break into this bracket.
6. Pretty hard to fail here, but dollars limit these moves till byes or late in the year.

I was going to do this process for the starting lineups but the app doesn't backdate prices so made this impossible. I suspect the % would be similar although I'd have a few extra passes in the lower brackets (Markov/Fantasia for example) and a few extra fails in the higher brackets due to injuries or total lemons (Gaff).
Click to expand...

I think the biggest surprise there (and mine were likely very similar) is seeing actually how low the success rate is for picking payers in that 500-700k bracket.

Usually the players I’m trading in that for that bracket are the fallen premos who have either A had a role change or B returning from injury and as the stats show, they rarely pay off and get back to premo status.

Thats the types like Heeney, Greene, Hunter, Martin etc who came into the side below 700k and all failed.

The stats certainly support the Guns n Rooks debate and something I need to try and stick to closer next year. My other take is that I will try at all costs to avoid trading in a rookie off 0 or 1 game when named. Got caught out by Fin Macrae who got dropped quickly and was stuck on my bench forever but my worst rookie downgrades were Williams (Port) and O’Connor (Crows) who both were useless.

So simple answer to trades seems to be guns and rookies approach and don’t downgrade too a rookie straight up.
 
powerrrrrrrrrrrr said:
I think the biggest surprise there (and mine were likely very similar) is seeing actually how low the success rate is for picking payers in that 500-700k bracket.

Usually the players I’m trading in that for that bracket are the fallen premos who have either A had a role change or B returning from injury and as the stats show, they rarely pay off and get back to premo status.

That's the types like Heeney, Greene, Hunter, Martin etc who came into the side below 700k and all failed.

The stats certainly support the Guns n Rooks debate and something I need to try and stick to closer next year. My other take is that I will try at all costs to avoid trading in a rookie off 0 or 1 game when named. Got caught out by Fin Macrae who got dropped quickly and was stuck on my bench forever but my worst rookie downgrades were Williams (Port) and O’Connor (Crows) who both were useless.

So simple answer to trades seems to be guns and rookies approach and don’t downgrade too a rookie straight up.
Click to expand...

Yeah absolutely this. I took a punt this year that rookies would dry up and shopping the bargain bin ($500-$700k) would have me surge out in front post-byes with a completed team.

In the end, it didn't work. Those players were scoring 70-80s while rookies I passed on (Poulter/Byrnes) were averaging the same or even more.

I guess those players get low for a reason, even if you pick the bottom correctly you're still picking up a player who's not averaging a good score in the grand scheme of things.

This year was particularly hard to stick to pure guns n rooks given the sparsity of trustworthy and reliable rookies. Other than poulter, byrnes and bramble I feel like i got all of the best ones.

Next year may actually be similar. Not alot of $170k players left in the system this year that are anywhere near a debut.

With smaller lists we could have a flow-on effect to next year with not many basement rookies to choose from.
 
Bad Trades:
Sholl round 2 in, got 1 think one good score and a couple of average ones - mostly terrible
Caldwell round 2 in, pretty sure he got injured that week? Quality start to the year with those two trades
ROB to Witts in Round 3, enough said on both fronts - had ROB for his crap and missed his ok scores
Trading CJ in, in round 5.. again a couple of ok 80's scores but mostly underwhelming and a waste of time and money
Farrar in Round 7, role turned to running away from the footy
Newman in for round 11, had an 80 then injured the following week
Hunter
Heeney
C.Mills two weeks ago - two donuts so far

Good
Crisp in at 719k and pretty much been good other than 1 score I think
Hall in at 575k
Harmes in at 515k was ok for about 8 weeks
Wines at 780k been a decent POD
Haynes at 475k - turned to crap but at that price got a good month out of him before trading
Pendles at 592k was ok - again the short term before injury
Danger at 642k hit and miss, but at least got his 150 first week in
McCluggage at 720k, slow start but coming home like a freight train
Kennedy at 538k
Degoey at 630k
Guthrie at 747k about 4 weeks ago
J.Lyons for the final 5 weeks of the year


running at less than 50/50 good vs bad.. pretty happy to be top 3k with that assortment of rubbish especially in the first half of the year.
 
Freo_4eva said:
Bad Trades:
Sholl round 2 in, got 1 think one good score and a couple of average ones - mostly terrible
Caldwell round 2 in, pretty sure he got injured that week? Quality start to the year with those two trades
ROB to Witts in Round 3, enough said on both fronts - had ROB for his crap and missed his ok scores
Trading CJ in, in round 5.. again a couple of ok 80's scores but mostly underwhelming and a waste of time and money
Farrar in Round 7, role turned to running away from the footy
Newman in for round 11, had an 80 then injured the following week
Hunter
Heeney
C.Mills two weeks ago - two donuts so far

Good
Crisp in at 719k and pretty much been good other than 1 score I think
Hall in at 575k
Harmes in at 515k was ok for about 8 weeks
Wines at 780k been a decent POD
Haynes at 475k - turned to crap but at that price got a good month out of him before trading
Pendles at 592k was ok - again the short term before injury
Danger at 642k hit and miss, but at least got his 150 first week in
McCluggage at 720k, slow start but coming home like a freight train
Kennedy at 538k
Degoey at 630k
Guthrie at 747k about 4 weeks ago
J.Lyons for the final 5 weeks of the year


running at less than 50/50 good vs bad.. pretty happy to be top 3k with that assortment of rubbish especially in the first half of the year.
Click to expand...

I think you’ve done pretty well o the trade front this year.

Getting Guthrie, Wines, Crisp, Hall and JDG at those prices is excellent

👍👍
 
Here is an interesting query (was going to start a thread on it, but can do it here)

How many of your trades throughout the year were forced
Forced being the player you traded out was unavailable that week due to injury, suspension or being dropped.

For me
R2: 1 (Danger)
R3: 2 (Caldwell, Bergman)
R4: 2 (Young, Witts)
R5: 2 (Sloane, Clark)
R6: 1 (Campbell*)
R7: 1 (Dunkley)
R8: 0 (8 weeks before I had a non forced trade week)
R9: 1 (Stephenson)
R10: 0
R11: 2 (Treloar, Bergman*)
R12: 0 (all 3 players were on their bye)
R13: 2 (Warner, RCD)
R14: 0 (all 4 players were on their bye)
R15: 0
R16: 1 (Docherty)
R17: 2 (Heppell, Newcombe)
R18: 2 (Markov, A.Scott)
R19: 2 (Martin, Amartey)
R20: 1 (Pendlebury)
R21: 2 (Kelly, Neale)
R22: 1 (Mills)
R23: 1 (Ziebell)
* Played as the sub


So 26 out of 50 of my trades were forced by outs.
Not sure if that is abnormally high or not.
 
happy_eagle said:
Here is an interesting query (was going to start a thread on it, but can do it here)

How many of your trades throughout the year were forced
Forced being the player you traded out was unavailable that week due to injury, suspension or being dropped.

For me
R2: 1 (Danger)
R3: 2 (Caldwell, Bergman)
R4: 2 (Young, Witts)
R5: 2 (Sloane, Clark)
R6: 1 (Campbell*)
R7: 1 (Dunkley)
R8: 0 (8 weeks before I had a non forced trade week)
R9: 1 (Stephenson)
R10: 0
R11: 2 (Treloar, Bergman*)
R12: 0 (all 3 players were on their bye)
R13: 2 (Warner, RCD)
R14: 0 (all 4 players were on their bye)
R15: 0
R16: 1 (Docherty)
R17: 2 (Heppell, Newcombe)
R18: 2 (Markov, A.Scott)
R19: 2 (Martin, Amartey)
R20: 1 (Pendlebury)
R21: 2 (Kelly, Neale)
R22: 1 (Mills)
R23: 1 (Ziebell)
* Played as the sub


So 26 out of 50 of my trades were forced by outs.
Not sure if that is abnormally high or not.
Click to expand...

My second half of the year has just been shocking and ended any chance of fielding a full team.

R23: Ziebel / T Kelly (both inj)
R22: ROB / Stewart (Both inj)
R21: Bowes / Jelly (dropped / inj)
R20: Amarty / Highmore (Dropped / Inj)
R19: Ellis / Mills (inj / suspended)
R18: Whitfield (inj)
R17: Markov (inj)
R16: Doch / Neale (inj / inj)

Then had Warner, Grundy, Tex Walker, Butters, Dunkley, Ridley and Dangerfield early in the year.

Easily the worst year and luck all over for constant injuries. Anyone who dodged an injury most weeks was cruising this year.
 

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powerrrrrrrrrrrr said:
I don’t know if you can view them all on the one page but I just change my team view to round 1/2/3 etc and has your trades below the team
Click to expand...
Oh yes forgot about that ....not one of the better attributes of the site then
 
The wins that stood out were the mid pricers, chiath, cumming, maybe Heppell could be in that. The losses were not getting the north Melbourne boys, deliberately but cost me big time. Had been burnt by hall prior, and z just cost too much by the time I could get him. Missed parish when he went on his run. So many premos just didn't get there this year, Dunkley, Whit's, TT ( though don't blame him), hunter. For me got killed for a few weeks near end of season. Sidey hunter Dunkley, Houston, helmet (not so bad in the end) brouch, TT, sometimes even zerrett. Just meant I was pretty much always down a few each week. Dunkley instead of hall is probably the worst trade of all time, and parish instead of whoever I got was costly too, but really the writing wasn't on the wall at the point. All in all, tough freakin year, mostly caused by me.

Adams, tracca, and safety captain titch gave been solid and my happily picked players.
 
At least my last trades worked ok. Hall for Ziebell, and Devon Smith in for Garcia. Got me a 2438 and 3 GF wins
 
A season in which I probably peaked too early and struggled to maintain rank through the back end.

Positives/things that went my way:
- Starting with Crae, Laird and Walsh who were guns and stayed the whole season.
- Nailed the starting rooks, and managed to grab most of the cash cows during the year.
- Didn't start with Rowell, dodging that bullet.
- Clark > Markov end of rd 1 paid in spades.
- Traded Danger in Rd 2, not having to deal with his sh*t till later in the season.
- Grabbed Hall when he was super cheap and remained till the end. Trade-in MVP.
- Ziebell before he peaked but held him to the end, probably 5 rounds too many.

Negatives/things that didn't go my way:
- Injuries, injuries and more injuries. Haven't bothered to count but at a guess at least 10-12 round trades would of involved an injury.
- During and after the byes I fell for Heeney and jumped on Hind when he had peaked and went into yo-yo scoring.
- Also joining the Neale injury circus didn't help, burning trades which bit me in the final few rounds.
- Finally traded Gaff after holding through all his bullshit (and his 150) for him to bang out 3 tons after he'd gone.
- Grabbing Telly and Yeo towards the end thinking they were bargains when really they were just spuds.
- Jumping on Whitfield thinking he's a premo when really he's afraid of contact.
- Last but not least Leon, not only did he f*ck Flynn early in the year, he twisted the knife later in the year by f*cking with Timmy, sealing his fate as the Horse's Ass Award winner. Well done Leon.

Thanks to happy_eagle for the graph template below.

1629770587301.png
 
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