List Mgmt. 2022 AFL Draft Discussion

what do we do?

  • trade back in with a future first and take phillipou

  • trade back in with a future second and take barnett

  • trade back in with a future second for someone else

  • only take MM and keep the other spot for PSD/rookie

Results are only viewable after voting.

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Our draft haul:

Pick 17 - Max Michalanney (matched F/S)
Pick 43 - Billy Dowling
Pick 50 - Hugh Bond

Rookie Pick 5 - Andrew McPherson (re-listed)
Rookie Pick 21 - Paul Seedsman (re-listed)
 
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DJ75 said:
S

Seems like a good lad. Hope he gets picked up and achieves his dream.
Not sure he plays in a position of need for us though.
Click to expand...

How tall is he? Maybe he could convert to a general forward role? That’s the only way I could see us taking him. We definitely do not need a half back.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
 
I like the sound of this guy. Then delist or trade berg or Frampton at years end.

7. Gold Coast – Max Ramsden (Sandringham Dragons)

Ruckman/Forward, 202cm, 86kg

Chris says: Ramsden is still quite raw and is considered a long-term project player by recruiters, but is an athletic freak who has some X-factor about him and shapes as an exciting future prospect. The 19-year-old has averaged 14.3 disposals, 17.5 hitouts and 6.7 score involvements from six NAB League games for the Dragons this season and the Suns would be looking for a future No.1 ruckman beyond Jarrod Witts, who turns 30 this year.

Or this guy

15. Fremantle – Wade Derksen (Peel Thunder)

Forward, 195cm, 90kg

Chris says: There have been a few clubs with interest in Derksen, but the Dockers will be hoping he falls to them. Fremantle invited Derksen to train with them during pre-season, but that request was denied and he has instead been left to play for the Dockers’ WAFL affiliate Peel Thunder. From three senior WAFL matches, the 20-year-old key forward has averaged 15.7 disposals, 4.7 marks and 2.3 goals. He starred with 22 disposals, nine score involvements and four goals against West Coast in Round 3.
 
Glenny83 said:
How tall is he? Maybe he could convert to a general forward role? That’s the only way I could see us taking him. We definitely do not need a half back.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
Click to expand...
192 cm

14. St Kilda – Mutaz El Nour (Northern Bullants/VFL)

Defender, 192cm, 83kg, Northern Bullants

Dan says: The Saints have been the surprise packets of 2022, but their key defenders can be stretched. While he isn’t the height of a key defender, El Nour has the ability to play on talls and smalls thanks to his athleticism. The Northern Bullants product has come on in leaps and bounds this year and is viewed as a prospect with considerable upside. He also has a nice kick, which could help the Saints improve their transition from defensive
 

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Would be really happy with Culley, Derkson or Carmichael. After that, it's just high upside hole fillers, isn't it?

Hall-Kahan or Bauer up forward, O'Neil (or Voss) on the ball or Ramsden (not sold) in the ruck. Not sold on the key defenders with our first pick, even though we need one.
 
I'm certainly interested in Carmichael at our pick, as Culley will be gone.

Ok if we go one of Ramsden or El Nour.

The thing I find interesting about El Nour is this(could be a lot taller and fill a better spot?): Listed at 192cm, El Nour is believed to have grown considerably this season, potentially helping his ability to play on bigger bodies in the senior system.
 
latinoheat said:
I hope we tank the rest of the season to get pick 3.
We ain’t finishing below north or weagles, just need to finish below Essendon
Click to expand...

If we beat WC by a decent margin and Essendon lose as expected to Carlton next week, we are 2 games and percentage ahead of Essendon.
 
Peter Doherty said:
If we beat WC by a decent margin and Essendon lose as expected to Carlton next week, we are 2 games and percentage ahead of Essendon.
Click to expand...
We've got two games against WCE and two games against Norf plus one against Hawthorn to come, these games won't do us any draft favours, 4-5 wins and big % boost. Could end up with pick 6-10, another McAsey or Jones selection.
 
Dangerousfield said:
We've got two games against WCE and two games against Norf plus one against Hawthorn to come, these games won't do us any draft favours, 4-5 wins and big % boost. Could end up with pick 6-10, another McAsey or Jones selection.
Click to expand...
And if we lose all of them... we've stitched up our second spoon.🥄
 
Dangerousfield said:
We've got two games against WCE and two games against Norf plus one against Hawthorn to come, these games won't do us any draft favours, 4-5 wins and big % boost. Could end up with pick 6-10, another McAsey or Jones selection.
Click to expand...
Mutineer ModernArtillery

Who are the highly rated mids that may be there around our pick assuming it falls between 3 and 7. I understand Tsatsas is one of them and from what I have read - never seen him play, he seems like he would be a good get. What about some others?. I wonder if the club would forgo taking say ie a Lemmey / Scully for a mid
 

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ContrarianCrow said:
Mattaes Phillipou from WWT could be one that lands right in our sweet spot for our 1st round pick. Tall goal-kicking mid putting together a blinder of a year.
Click to expand...

www.google.com

AFL Draft Power Rankings: Fresh face takes top spot

ESPN.com.au's draft expert Chris Doerre has revealed his AFL Draft Power Rankings for the month of June, with a new No. 1 taking the reins from Lions father-son prospect Will Ashcroft.
www.google.com www.google.com

Knigtmare over at ESPN has released his June Draft rankings, have a look at No 1, sounds at least on paper the exact sort of mid we need with the added bonus of being from SA.

West Coast could go tall with Kennedy likely retiring but they do have Allen. North surely go the best tall available this year. Could leave us with the pick of the Mids.
 
Dewy006 said:
www.google.com

AFL Draft Power Rankings: Fresh face takes top spot

ESPN.com.au's draft expert Chris Doerre has revealed his AFL Draft Power Rankings for the month of June, with a new No. 1 taking the reins from Lions father-son prospect Will Ashcroft.
www.google.com www.google.com

Knigtmare over at ESPN has released his June Draft rankings, have a look at No 1, sounds at least on paper the exact sort of mid we need with the added bonus of being from SA.

West Coast could go tall with Kennedy likely retiring but they do have Allen. North surely go the best tall available this year. Could leave us with the pick of the Mids.
Click to expand...
Yeah and Jhye Clark @19 and Casey Voss @20, that's right Casey Voss @20...

The bloke's away with the fairies.
 
latinoheat said:
Is he a line breaker?
Click to expand...
No, average pace but very talented, a 190cm+ mid/forward, where he goes in the draft likely dependent on how he shapes up against Wardlaw, Ashcroft, Tsatas, Hewett etc at the upcoming Nationals. I suspect he will spend a fair bit of time forward for SA at the Nationals as well. His size is what might see him rise if he turns it on at the Nationals.
 
Dewy006 said:
www.google.com

AFL Draft Power Rankings: Fresh face takes top spot

ESPN.com.au's draft expert Chris Doerre has revealed his AFL Draft Power Rankings for the month of June, with a new No. 1 taking the reins from Lions father-son prospect Will Ashcroft.
www.google.com www.google.com

Knigtmare over at ESPN has released his June Draft rankings, have a look at No 1, sounds at least on paper the exact sort of mid we need with the added bonus of being from SA.

West Coast could go tall with Kennedy likely retiring but they do have Allen. North surely go the best tall available this year. Could leave us with the pick of the Mids.
Click to expand...

Old Knightmare's had more hits than misses over the years by being a contrarian, but unfortunately seems to have looked at that record and gone 'well, if being contrarian leads me to hits, I should just be more contrarian' instead of going 'clearly, my eye works pretty well and I'm able to pick a few hits that others don't, so I should keep doing things as I've always done them' and ends up chasing contrarian opinions now.

The result is now 'going against the grain' becoming his entire brand. The Kane Cornes of draft watching - driving traffic and clicks by being so outlandish.

I like what I've seen of Phillipou and KM's analysis is spot on in terms of why he could rise up boards - if he's great size, has pace, damaging and especially a December birthday (AFL clubs routinely underrate December/late year birthdays by lumping all prospects into the same crop. Nick Daicos is a full year older than Neil Erasmus. Of course he's going to perform better in his draft year...Bailey Smith is a year younger than Rozee or Chayce Jones, that he was already miles better than those two despite the age gap wasn't weighted highly enough. Andrew Brayshaw another). I can definitely see a reality where he goes a bit later than he should because he's a little bit more raw and unpolished, when that extra polish is acquired in the year behind some of the other draftees he is, and ends up a better player.

But, as for KM, 3 of his top 4 being pretty contrarian is just on brand. Scully's not a top 4 pick yet. He might become one, but on available evidence he isn't - note how the analysis is far more about what Scully is (young for his year, high rate of 'growth', good stats) and less about how he's doing it.

I think North will go midfielder this year unless they trade their pick. Best available around #2 is just going to be miles away from where the KPPs fall, I reckon.
 
Skippos said:
Old Knightmare's had more hits than misses over the years by being a contrarian, but unfortunately seems to have looked at that record and gone 'well, if being contrarian leads me to hits, I should just be more contrarian' instead of going 'clearly, my eye works pretty well and I'm able to pick a few hits that others don't, so I should keep doing things as I've always done them' and ends up chasing contrarian opinions now.

The result is now 'going against the grain' becoming his entire brand. The Kane Cornes of draft watching - driving traffic and clicks by being so outlandish.

I like what I've seen of Phillipou and KM's analysis is spot on in terms of why he could rise up boards - if he's great size, has pace, damaging and especially a December birthday (AFL clubs routinely underrate December/late year birthdays by lumping all prospects into the same crop. Nick Daicos is a full year older than Neil Erasmus. Of course he's going to perform better in his draft year...Bailey Smith is a year younger than Rozee or Chayce Jones, that he was already miles better than those two despite the age gap wasn't weighted highly enough. Andrew Brayshaw another). I can definitely see a reality where he goes a bit later than he should because he's a little bit more raw and unpolished, when that extra polish is acquired in the year behind some of the other draftees he is, and ends up a better player.

But, as for KM, 3 of his top 4 being pretty contrarian is just on brand. Scully's not a top 4 pick yet. He might become one, but on available evidence he isn't - note how the analysis is far more about what Scully is (young for his year, high rate of 'growth', good stats) and less about how he's doing it.

I think North will go midfielder this year unless they trade their pick. Best available around #2 is just going to be miles away from where the KPPs fall, I reckon.
Click to expand...
Jordan Butts a great example of a December birthday, born the next day and he's in the the next year's draft.
 
Mutineer said:
Jordan Butts a great example of a December birthday, born the next day and he's in the the next year's draft.
Click to expand...

Yep. and went undrafted in his draft year because he was raw. But only a few days older than Chayce the year after, and clearly those who looked over him (or considered him an 'overager' in his draft year and punished him accordingly) regret that now.

I remember a couple of years ago looking at the standard distribution of birthdays in the top 20-25 picks in the draft and was pretty shocked at the results. Huge bias towards early year birthdays. I think in 2020 Thilthorpe (July) was the second youngest player picked in the top 20. Ryan Angwin (December - #18) was the only bloke younger than him. You look at the blokes outside of that top 20 who've shown anything and it's Bowey (September), Gulden (July), Poulter (October), Carroll (December), Treacy (August), Ginnivan (December). Only really Berry (February) was an early season birth from outside the top 20 and could mount a case to be retrospectively in it. But the mid-late year birthdays who could? Lots.

Obviously 2020 was covid affected year, but that just speaks more to the point I'm about to make - that recruiters are inherently conservative and like to make decisions on what is naturally evident before them. And the more 'developed' a prospect (which comes with age), the less modelling they have to do about what they'll become. And the less risk there is.

Cause/effect potentially at play here in that maybe being an early year birth gives you a higher chance of being an afl footballer due to benefiting more from the way the development system is set up to pick the best player in an age group, which begins in January, and then develop them as potential AFL footballers, and being at the upper end of an age group makes you more likely to be 'better' at that moment and receive/be selected to receive that higher level coaching. But I think it's more likely that the standard distribution of high level AFL players is uniform across birth months (quick example - 8 of the top 10 in last year's brownlow were 2nd half of the year births, Mitchell (May) and Petracca (Jan) the exceptions, 6 out of 10 in 2020 too) and AFL recruiters have a blind spot because they're afraid to take on the extra risk that having to 'project' more entails. Which means those who are aware of this, and willing to take the risk, can really exploit that I reckon.

Interestingly, have a look at the kids we've drafted over the last 4 years. Notice any trends or a common distribution? Only 2/18 born in the last 5 months of the year, but 13/18 in the first 5 months...... And half of them born in the first 3 months of the year.

2018: Jones (Jan), Hamill (Nov), McHenry (July), Sholl (March), Butts (Jan)
2019: McAsey (March), Schoenberg (Feb), Worrell (April), O'Connor (Feb), Gollant (Sep)
2020: Thilthorpe (July), Pedlar (May), Berry (Feb), Cook (July)
2021: Rachele (April), Soligo (Jan), Taylor (Jan), Nankervis (May)
 
Skippos said:
Old Knightmare's had more hits than misses over the years by being a contrarian, but unfortunately seems to have looked at that record and gone 'well, if being contrarian leads me to hits, I should just be more contrarian' instead of going 'clearly, my eye works pretty well and I'm able to pick a few hits that others don't, so I should keep doing things as I've always done them' and ends up chasing contrarian opinions now.

The result is now 'going against the grain' becoming his entire brand. The Kane Cornes of draft watching - driving traffic and clicks by being so outlandish.

I like what I've seen of Phillipou and KM's analysis is spot on in terms of why he could rise up boards - if he's great size, has pace, damaging and especially a December birthday (AFL clubs routinely underrate December/late year birthdays by lumping all prospects into the same crop. Nick Daicos is a full year older than Neil Erasmus. Of course he's going to perform better in his draft year...Bailey Smith is a year younger than Rozee or Chayce Jones, that he was already miles better than those two despite the age gap wasn't weighted highly enough. Andrew Brayshaw another). I can definitely see a reality where he goes a bit later than he should because he's a little bit more raw and unpolished, when that extra polish is acquired in the year behind some of the other draftees he is, and ends up a better player.

But, as for KM, 3 of his top 4 being pretty contrarian is just on brand. Scully's not a top 4 pick yet. He might become one, but on available evidence he isn't - note how the analysis is far more about what Scully is (young for his year, high rate of 'growth', good stats) and less about how he's doing it.

I think North will go midfielder this year unless they trade their pick. Best available around #2 is just going to be miles away from where the KPPs fall, I reckon.
Click to expand...
Scully and Phillpou - so far all their form is sanfl U18s and I think that’s also where people can get caught out

National championships or senior footy ( eg sanfl league or reserves) form is pretty important in determining a top 5 quality for a SA based footballer
 
Dewy006 said:
www.google.com

AFL Draft Power Rankings: Fresh face takes top spot

ESPN.com.au's draft expert Chris Doerre has revealed his AFL Draft Power Rankings for the month of June, with a new No. 1 taking the reins from Lions father-son prospect Will Ashcroft.
www.google.com www.google.com

Knigtmare over at ESPN has released his June Draft rankings, have a look at No 1, sounds at least on paper the exact sort of mid we need with the added bonus of being from SA.

West Coast could go tall with Kennedy likely retiring but they do have Allen. North surely go the best tall available this year. Could leave us with the pick of the Mids.
Click to expand...
The think with Knightmare is he doesn’t pin players that are aggressive or have physical play. That’s why his ratings are so different to everybody else. He said Lukosius is best he’s seen ever but he will never be great because he lacks aggression, that’s also the question mark on Tilly.

Aggressive is a very important aspect to our game. Think Hamish isn’t big on it either
 
Jeffcrowe said:
Scully and Phillpou - so far all their form is sanfl U18s and I think that’s also where people can get caught out

National championships or senior footy ( eg sanfl league or reserves) form is pretty important in determining a top 5 quality for a SA based footballer
Click to expand...

I don't really mind that at all. Plenty of good AFL players drafted out of the colts while blokes who make the league teams in their draft year struggle. It's not as linear as we think with developing bodies & personally, I think the SANFL is a bit of a dead zone for developing talent. A lot more busts per SA kid drafted than other states. I think a part of that is overrating the performance against 'men' in the league side vs projecting what we've seen and how it translates.

Playing in the seniors on small, tight, boggy ovals (as opposed to the more expansive firmer ones in the WAFL) renders the SANFL an inside, physical slop. It's natural that the kids who play that in their senior years are more physically hardened and contested in style, while the kids who are less developed you protect from it. Will Day & Zac Bailey are probably the two best players to come out of the SANFL in the last few years and neither played much league stuff, did they? Probably better for the kids to learn to dominate under 18 games where there's less pressure/physicality and resultantly more time and space to show skills/creativity which is what the AFL clubs are looking for, not the next Luke Dunstan.

Poor Scully would be snapped in half if he played league at the moment. I think he'd really battle, and that battling would be no reflection of his potential upside as an AFL footballer.

Jirkago75 said:
The think with Knightmare is he doesn’t pin players that are aggressive or have physical play. That’s why his ratings are so different to everybody else. He said Lukosius is best he’s seen ever but he will never be great because he lacks aggression, that’s also the question mark on Tilly.

Aggressive is a very important aspect to our game. Think Hamish isn’t big on it either
Click to expand...

I couldn't agree more. I'd probably go as far as saying aggression & competitiveness are the most important traits in key forwards. Without it, you will seldom succeed. It's my biggest concern for Thilthorpe, because it's very rare players 'learn' it on the job. Most highly drafted KPFs that have busted all have lack of competitiveness in common. Only Peter Wright seems to have overcome that deficiency, and it took him a long time (and he still battles a touch with it, but gets away with it due to size)

It's importance for different positions varies, but as a general rule, it's very important. Junior footy with its lower intensity, smaller bodies & heavier zoning of players often makes it harder to see that competitiveness in action (but more one on one contests).
 
Skippos said:
I don't really mind that at all. Plenty of good AFL players drafted out of the colts while blokes who make the league teams in their draft year struggle. It's not as linear as we think with developing bodies & personally, I think the SANFL is a bit of a dead zone for developing talent. A lot more busts per SA kid drafted than other states. I think a part of that is overrating the performance against 'men' in the league side vs projecting what we've seen and how it translates.

Playing in the seniors on small, tight, boggy ovals (as opposed to the more expansive firmer ones in the WAFL) renders the SANFL an inside, physical slop. It's natural that the kids who play that in their senior years are more physically hardened and contested in style, while the kids who are less developed you protect from it. Will Day & Zac Bailey are probably the two best players to come out of the SANFL in the last few years and neither played much league stuff, did they? Probably better for the kids to learn to dominate under 18 games where there's less pressure/physicality and resultantly more time and space to show skills/creativity which is what the AFL clubs are looking for, not the next Luke Dunstan.

Poor Scully would be snapped in half if he played league at the moment. I think he'd really battle, and that battling would be no reflection of his potential upside as an AFL footballer.



I couldn't agree more. I'd probably go as far as saying aggression & competitiveness are the most important traits in key forwards. Without it, you will seldom succeed. It's my biggest concern for Thilthorpe, because it's very rare players 'learn' it on the job. Most highly drafted KPFs that have busted all have lack of competitiveness in common. Only Peter Wright seems to have overcome that deficiency, and it took him a long time (and he still battles a touch with it, but gets away with it due to size)

It's importance for different positions varies, but as a general rule, it's very important. Junior footy with its lower intensity, smaller bodies & heavier zoning of players often makes it harder to see that competitiveness in action (but more one on one contests).
Click to expand...
Yep more a point of Scully and Phillipou were to actually end up top 5 picks it would be on the back of nationals form rather than just sanfl U18s ie if they struggle in nationals or don’t play v well I can’t see them being top 5 picks

Hayward was one I thought was good enough to get taken much higher but recruiters seem to ignore his sanfl U18 form in some part
 
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