Player Watch 2022 AFL National Draft Discussion - read the pinned post

[Strapping Young Lad]

National AFL draft Monday November 28(first round only).
All other selections to be held on Tuesday November 29.
The pre-season and rookie drafts will then take place at 3pm (AEST) on Wednesday November 30.

 

[TDS7]

Or Gold Coast could do us both a favour and take Ginbey.

It was in reference to the suggestion Cam Mackenzie would be taken before our pick. I'd still rather Tsatas to Cam, but I do hope he has a long and successful career. Unfortunately, it seems he'll be going to the Saints instead.

 

[Jazzfan]

Hi Jazzfan , just thought I'd repost my thoughts from the West Coast draft thread on why I rate Mackenzie so high on here, due to Hawthorn having a very good chance of selecting him. So see below eight arbitrary categories that I have created for considering a midfielder draftee that I analysed from "Youtube and news articles" expertly to form my opinion.

Ball winning - Congestion and stoppage extraction (8/10)
This one is hard to fully assess due to Mackenzie having an altered role from his NAB League role to his role at Champs level (with Ashcroft, Hotton, Sheezel, Tsatas, Pascu, Petric, Drury etc rotating through the Metro midfield). Simply put, Mackenzie wasn't asked to crash packs at the highest level this year so it wasn't what you'd call a "feature" of his game. However, Mackenzie does display a good amount of upper body strength and has an inclination to raise the ball high in a tackle to keep his arms free for the quick handball should he get tackled.

Also, Mackenzie is very good at one-touching the ball, be it in congestion or with the ball on the ground he rarely fumbles. Due to this his ability to collect the ball below his knees is fantastic for somebody his size. He is also excellent at hitting the right spot of congestion at pace resulting in a clean clearance

A couple of examples of Mackenzie's ability in relation to congestion and stoppages are:
1. Vic Metro v SA 2nd quarter, 7 minutes, 12 seconds to go - Ball is thrown in on the forward flank. Mackenzie takes the ball expertly whilst in the air, lands, steadies and hits the danger spot at the top of the square. This immediately results in a Drury goal for Metro.
2. Vic Metro v SA 4th quarter, 14 minutes, 5 seconds to go - Bounce in the centre square, ruckmen jostle and the ball bounces on the back end of the centre circle line. Mackenzie manoeuvres around a lunging Barnett and takes the ball cleanly (one touch) at pace. Taking only a couple of paces to balance himself and rotate himself towards the Metro goal he kicks to about 45m out where Jefferson competes in a marking contest.
3. Vic Metro v WA 1st quarter, first play of the day - the ball is bobbling and skidding on the ground. Mackenzie swoops and kicks the ball up with one-touch and kicks the ball forward under pressure.
4. Vic Metro v WA 1st quarter, 11 minutes, 20 seconds to go - Mackenzie receives the ball on the wing in transition and shrugs his hips throwing a WA player off demonstrating superior upper body strength.
5. Vic Metro v WA 4th quarter, 22 minutes, 10 seconds to go - a WA player drops the ball in a tackle. Mackenzie pounces on it, evades a WA tackler swings around and delivers perfectly to a teammate on the wing.

6. Vic Metro v WA 3rd quarter, 15 minutes, 40 seconds to go - a loose ball is bouncing in Metro's forward 50m. Mackenzie beats three Country players there (including Hollands and Hustwaite) and spins through them with ease getting out a clean handball and setting a teammate up for a shot on goal.

7. NAB League GF - Sandringham Dragons v Dandenong Stingrays 2nd Quarter, 2 minutes in - ball in on the forward part of the wing. Mackenzie hits the drop of the tap at pace and is able to send the ball deep inside 50 for a scoring opportunity.

Transition to the Outside (9/10)
Whilst not being lightning quick Mackenzie has a large stride and a step of pace which helps give him the ability to create space on the peripherals of congestion. Now he does not have the top speed of Tsatas, Burgiel or Humphrey but he's better than average and, unlike Allan or Ginbey, it really is noticeable in a match. He makes opponents look slow.

Mackenzie also has the uncanny ability to slow down time in traffic and just generally has impeccable decision making ability about both where to run and how to dispose of the ball.

1. Vic Metro v SA 4th quarter, 3 minutes to go - Clarke makes the ball on the forward flank and provides the overlapping handball to Mackenzie who had followed the play which had transitioned from SA's forward line. Mackenzie kicks around the body while being corralled and hits Hotton cleanly about 35m away. Hotton goals.
2. Vic Metro v WA 1st quarter, 2 minutes, 57 seconds to go - Mackenzie collects the loose ball on the wing breaking a lame Dewar tackle. He handballs backwards to Clarke as Dewar is pursuing him. Clarke givens back to Mackenzie (who is free due to a great shepherd from another teammate, possibly Weddle), Mackenzie shuffles back waiting for a moment for the play to develop. At this stage he is at WA's forward flank. Two players (including Jones) try to corral Mackenzie. Mackenzie gives a lovely looping handball to three free Metro teammates further ahead (due to too many WA players being drawn to Mackenzie with the ball). Not satisfied with that Mackenzie accelerates forward past Jones and gets a further handball receive and kicks long to Metro's forward flank to a legitimate two-on-two. This example reflects Mackenzie's ability to navigate well in traffic and make excellent decisions under pressure.
3. Vic Metro v Allies 2nd quarter, 5 minutes, 17 seconds in - Ball up on the wing. The ball rolls towards the centre square. Mackenzie notes that his teammate Kizan is going to be first to the ball and proceeds to break towards goal. Kizan handballs to Mackenzie who streams forward and then loops a handball over his Allies opponent to Drury for a clean i50 and a Davey goal.

4. NAB League GF - Sandringham Dragons v Dandenong Stingrays 1st Quarter, 15 minutes and 40 second in - Mackenzie gets the clearance from a clean tap and handballs to a teammate. He follows up after his clearance and is further involved in the chain on the forward 50 running hard to remain part of the play.

Ball use (9/10)
The best ball user of the midfield contingent this year Mackenzie not only has a fantastic kicking action but, more importantly he weighs the ball to perfection. Often teammates

Now that's not to say his disposal is perfect, he is prone to the odd shank. However, in general his kicking is so sublime that hack kicks are a rarity and do not detract from his otherwise exemplary disposal. And it's not just his kicking either. His handballs are phenomenal in traffic. He often waits rather than just disposing of the ball for the game to unfold and more options to present themselves.

There are many, many examples of Mackenzie's absolutely elite ball use but here are some of the best:
1. Vic Metro v Vic Country 2nd quarter, 17 minutes, 30 seconds to go - the ball is looped from a Metro defender out of their back 50m arc. Mackenzie receives the ball accelerates forward and then loops his own handball wide to Ashcroft. Ashcroft returns him the ball with a handball over Hustwaite. Mackenzie is now streaming to the point of the centre square. He kicks what BT would describe as a "lot belter" which would barely go above two metres in the air for its whole 45m journey. Mackenzie's kick is so pin point perfect that Jefferson can't help but take the mark on his chest 40m from goal in the pocket despite Reid being only one step behind him to the fall of the ball.

2. Vic Metro v Vic Country 2nd quarter, 3 minutes, 20 seconds to go - Mackenzie receives a handball in the back 50. Rather than simply kicking down the centre Mackenzie casts a glance laterally and goes 50m across ground to a free teammate. Metro march the ball down the field and Clarke goals.
3. Vic Metro v Vic Country 3rd quarter, 8 minutes, 10 seconds to go - Mackenzie collects a handball at the centre circle, turns and weighs a 35m kick to a teammate with the ball travelling just over the outstretched arm of Cadman and a further Country player sitting behind the Metro player. Had the kick been anything different than what it was it would've almost certainly resulted in a turnover.

For other examples check out his full games against Vic Country, the NAB League Grand Final against the Singrays and his round 10 game against the Jets in full.

Scoreboard impact (4/10)
At the Champs he had limited direct scoreboard impact (i.e. goals he kicked himself), however, he is frequently involved in score chains and with his elite disposal is the player that you want kicking the ball into your forwards.
There's no question about capacity, it seems like this year might more reflect a lack of opportunity. With the attributes he has, given the right environment I think that he will become a player who does hit the scoreboard regularly. Still you have to assess the player on what they have produced, not on what they are capable of producing. Hence the lower score for this attribute.

1. NAB League Round 10 - Sandringham Dragons v Western Jets 2nd Quarter, 9 minutes in - probably Mackenzie's best play of the year. He takes the ball cleanly off the ruck contest, arcs towards goal, handballs over his looming Jets opponent, collects the ball again, handballs forward to Ashcroft, follows the ball into the Dragons forward 50, where he receives a handball and eeks out a kick from 40m between two Jets defenders for a goal.

2. Vic Metro v WA 3rd quarter, 8 minutes to go - Mackenzie is on a turnover chain from a Metro turnover from a WA kick out. He shows a burst of speed to accelerate away giving himself enough space to get balanced and banana around the body from 40m and sink the goal.

3. Vic Metro v Allies 2nd quarter, 6 minutes and 30 seconds in - Metro break from the centre bounce and Mackenzie is on the end of a well-weighted Ashcroft handball and bursts from the square to the forward 50m arc. He kicks long to a one-on-one in the goal square which Sheezel takes on his chest and converts.

4. NAB League GF - Sandringham Dragons v Dandenong Stingrays 1st Quarter, 12 minutes and 20 second in - Mackenzie is in space about 40m out. He receives a quick fire handball from a teammate and curls a goal from 40m out.
5. NAB League Round 1 - Sandringham Dragons v Oakleigh Chargers 2nd Quarter, 10 minutes 20 seconds in - Mackenzie marks the ball 47m out from a Clarke kick around the body. Probably about a 40 degree angle. He swings out to open up on his right foot and sinks it from the 50m arc.

Marking (6/10)
His natural height of 188cm obviously helps in regard to his counterparts and whilst there are other midfielders who are taller (i.e. Phillipou, Hustwaite, Allan, Ginbey) and better marks than Mackenzie when called to he is happy to throw his weight around. Note that I wouldn't suggest that his marking exceeds his height (ala Hotton, Hewett, Sheezel or Konstanty whose marking ability belies their shorter statures) nor is he in any way a marking midfielder like Fyfe, Cripps or Bontempelli but he rarely loses a contest or fumbles a mark either. I will preface my analysis that Mackenzie rarely had to compete for a mark in the various games I saw. He either was causing havoc at the clearances or marking uncontested in transition.

1. Vic Metro v Allies 2nd quarter, 40 seconds in - Mackenzie competes in a one-v-one with an Allies player in a marking contest. Even though he doesn't take the mark Mackenzie recovers far quicker than his opponent and is able to collect at ground level and get the handball off.
2. NAB League Prelim Final - Sandringham Dragons v Gippsland Power - 2nd quarter 2 minutes and 40 seconds in - Mackenzie (having been involved on the back flank pushes forward for a floating kick around the body. Mackenzie climbs high over two players and takes an important grab. He immediately plays on, handballs forward to Clarke and the ball eventually ends with Sheezel who goals from the goalsquare.

Tackling (7/10)
May not have the intensity that you see from say a Hewett, but he just sticks his tackles.

1. Vic Metro v WA 2nd quarter, 17 minutes, 55 seconds to go - Hewett pounces on the ball and Mackenzie bear hugs him immediately stopping the ball being released. Given Hewet''s strength prowess Mackenzie stops him without any difficulty.

2. Vic Metro v WA 2nd quarter, 12 minutes, 25 seconds to go - Jones has the ball in the centre and seeks to stream down the field. He tries to step around Mackenzie (given his speed). However, Mackenzie is having none of it, pulling him to the ground and winning a free kick for holding the ball.

3. Vic Metro v Allies 2nd quarter, 21 minutes, 20 gone - Mackenzie lays a tackle in congestion on an Allies player and dispossesses him. The ball is collected by another player that Mackenzie immediately tackles and brings to the ground.

Endurance (8/10)
I'm not sure how he tested at the Combine (or if he did test), however, Mackenzie has demonstrated no issue with maintaining a similar output and level all game. He also is a player consistently on the move and will be running forward or back with the play, regardless of whether his teammates utilise his availability.

Not really any specific examples of this. Simply watch any of his games and how he runs them out in the fourth quarter.
I know that Hollands is the benchmark here and while Mackenzie wouldn't be the equal of him on the track there's very little real difference on the field that I can see between them.

Ability to Read the Play (8/10)
As well as being a committed two-way runner Mackenzie displays an aptitude to place himself in the right space around the contest for when the ball comes out.

(on the right) (at the back towards the umpire)

This reminds me of Shuey in his heyday when he would be very strategic about having a direct corridor to goal from the stoppage to enable him to best utilise his pace for a clearance. This is in contrast to a strong inside mid (who doesn't necessarily have to think as tactically about his placement due to the particular attributes he will be using).

Some examples:
1. Vic Metro v WA 3rd quarter, 14 minutes, 20 seconds to go - Mackenzie reads the tap in the centre circle to perfection and releases Ashcroft for an inside 50 for Metro.
2. Vic Metro v WA 3rd quarter, 11 minutes, 40 seconds to go - Mackenzie collects wonderfully off the loose ball from the ruck tap on the forward flank and kicks inside forward 50.
3. Vic Metro v WA 4th quarter, 9 minutes, 30 seconds to go - Mackenzie receives an Ollie Hotton handball from the bounce down congestion and streams with two bounces through the middle of the ground for a kick inside 50.

So here's hoping Hawthorn don't take him tonight (although we're almost as likely to let him slide past our pick anyway).

Great insights mate.

Curiously, how have you ranked the top 10 in order?

 

[arupist]

Ok I am calling it.

If we don’t grab Cam Macca, I will spew up.

As long as you don't do the South Park thing if we do get him.

 

[WWSD]

What exactly is there to be gained by having the draft held over two nights? lol

 

[Kanga Commando]

What exactly is there to be gained by having the draft held over two nights? lol

$$$$'s
Not that i agree it should be done like this...

Just milking the absolute out of it

 

[RIOLINWITPUNCHS]

What exactly is there to be gained by having the draft held over two nights? lol

Sleep for all of us.

Can you imagine what time it would finish.

Tonight probably won't be done before 11pm.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

As long as you don't do the South Park thing if we do get him.

Please, nobody do the South Park thing. I hate that image more than I hate stubbing my toe on metal furniture frames.

 

[kenneje]

Please, nobody do the South Park thing. I hate that image more than I hate stubbing my toe on metal furniture frames.

Sorry, but if we draft Tsatas I’ll be posting ‘ghosts’

 

[TDS7]

Sorry, but if we draft Tsatas I’ll be posting ‘ghosts’

Ghost's of Christmas Cheer I presume?

 

[TylerDurden]

 

[KermitJagger]

Please, nobody do the South Park thing. I hate that image more than I hate stubbing my toe on metal furniture frames.

What's the South Park thing?

 

[eaglespremiers]

Great insights mate.

Curiously, how have you ranked the top 10 in order?

To clarify, my top 10 is going to be based on my particular rankings (and will not be popular compared to the actual "experts"). Also I haven't watched many of the players as close as I have Mackenzie. Due to watching Metro and the Dragons, however, I have seen a fair bit of Ashcroft, Hotton, Clarke etc...

People will say that I don't like Ashcroft, which is not true, he's just not the messiah. I see him as likely having a career akin to Marc Murphy or Darcy Parish, which is still very very good. Very good accumulators and excellent in congestion. If he develops to being absolutely elite then maybe he'll be more like a Scott West or even a Lachie Neale but I have concerns about:
1. his often very poor foot skills; and
2. his propensity to pad his stats unnecessarily (ala Ablett).
So I just think there are more dynamic players in the draft.

1. George Wardlaw
2. Cameron Mackenzie
3. Aaron Cadman
4. Harry Sheezel
5. Mattaes Phillipou
6. Will Ashcroft
7. Elijah Tsatas
8. Ollie Hollands
9. Elijah Hewett
10. Bailey Humphrey

I might be more active in running a draft thread next year due to circumstance.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

What's the South Park thing?

The pic of Randy Marsh having jerked off. Pretty sure the mods banned it because it was getting annoyingly overused and because there are actual kids on here.

 

[KermitJagger]

The pic of Randy Marsh having jerked off. Pretty sure the mods banned it because it was getting annoyingly overused and because there are actual kids on here.

Oh right! I thought people were talking about the Team America vomit gif which is equally annoying

 

[Billyc]

To clarify, my top 10 is going to be based on my particular rankings (and will not be popular compared to the actual "experts"). Also I haven't watched many of the players as close as I have Mackenzie. Due to watching Metro and the Dragons, however, I have seen a fair bit of Ashcroft, Hotton, Clarke etc...

People will say that I don't like Ashcroft, which is not true, he's just not the messiah. I see him as likely having a career akin to Marc Murphy or Darcy Parish, which is still very very good. Very good accumulators and excelllent in congestion. If he develops to being absolutely elite then maybe he'll be more like a Scott West or even a Lachie Neale but I have concerns about:
1. his often very poor foot skills; and
2. his propensity to pad his stats unnecessarily (ala Ablett).
So I just think there are more dynamic players in the draft.

1. George Wardlaw
2. Cameron Mackenzie
3. Aaron Cadman
4. Harry Sheezel
5. Mattaes Phillipou
6. Will Ashcroft
7. Elijah Tsatas
8. Ollie Hollands
9. Elijah Hewett
10. Bailey Humphrey

I might be more active in running a draft thread next year due to circumstance.

Thanks for your contribution. I know some people get really annoyed when someone dares go outside the orthodox internet rankings, but the reality is all clubs have different rankings and the #1 pick rarely ends up being the best player in the draft. It's a subjective thing and I think there's a lot of echo chamber in internet rankings in general. Knightmare cops a pasting, including in relation to his early season view that Phillipou had the highest upside, but that now seems a more widely-held opinion. I quite like reading different views on it.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

I am settled on really hoping that Tsatas heads to the filth and we get Phillipou. I want the brashness and the upside - if the kid plays the game as good as he talks a big game then we are in for one hell of a ride.

 

[MrPremiership]

I am settled on really hoping that Tsatas heads to the filth and we get Phillipou. I want the brashness and the upside - if the kid plays the game as good as he talks a big game then we are in for one hell of a ride.

I like that, but also happy with the "safer" pick in Clark, Mackenzie......

Will be happy either way

 

[Billyc]

I am settled on really hoping that Tsatas heads to the filth and we get Phillipou. I want the brashness and the upside - if the kid plays the game as good as he talks a big game then we are in for one hell of a ride.

That's what I want too, for the upside and the entertainment. But my gut tells me we will go with Mackenzie and I am very comfortable with that. He looks a really good option.

 

[toomanysquibs]

But my gut tells me we will go with Mackenzie and I am very comfortable with that. He looks a really good option.

If that's the worst we could do, we're on a pretty good wicket and I don't think anyone is complaining too hard if we walk away from the draft with him as our first selection.

 

[rei154]

Do all of these deals carry water if their players of choice carry to pick 7?

 

[TDS7]

Do all of these deals carry water if their players of choice carry to pick 7?

You would assume they are after Tsatas or Humphrey, who clubs seem to think are almost guaranteed to go to Essendon and Gold Coast respectively. A lot can be said of Essendon's Phillipou interest, but I think it's a smokescreen and due diligence for a trade-down. If it is Tsatas and the Bombers don't take him, then I'm sure the trade offers will come knocking.

 

[Platten44]

The day has finally ******* arrived.

It’s so weird when it’s over. All this excitement and then nothing!

 

[Chris_Superman_Langford]

To clarify, my top 10 is going to be based on my particular rankings (and will not be popular compared to the actual "experts"). Also I haven't watched many of the players as close as I have Mackenzie. Due to watching Metro and the Dragons, however, I have seen a fair bit of Ashcroft, Hotton, Clarke etc...

People will say that I don't like Ashcroft, which is not true, he's just not the messiah. I see him as likely having a career akin to Marc Murphy or Darcy Parish, which is still very very good. Very good accumulators and excelllent in congestion. If he develops to being absolutely elite then maybe he'll be more like a Scott West or even a Lachie Neale but I have concerns about:
1. his often very poor foot skills; and
2. his propensity to pad his stats unnecessarily (ala Ablett).
So I just think there are more dynamic players in the draft.

1. George Wardlaw
2. Cameron Mackenzie
3. Aaron Cadman
4. Harry Sheezel
5. Mattaes Phillipou
6. Will Ashcroft
7. Elijah Tsatas
8. Ollie Hollands
9. Elijah Hewett
10. Bailey Humphrey

I might be more active in running a draft thread next year due to circumstance.

I agree more with your top 10 than any expert list I've seen. I would have Clark in there though.

 

[smish]

Predictions:

• Dodoro blinks and selects Tsatas
• No clubs end up trading into the top 10

Smokeys:

• Clark to slide out of top 10
• Ed Allen to Geelong @ 8

Order:
1. Cadman
2. Ashcroft
3. Sheezel
4. Wardlaw
5. Tsatas
6. Humphrey
7. Mackenzie
8. Ed Allen
9. Busslinger
10. Phillipou

Have a feeling I'm going to be very wrong but oh well, a bit of fun

 

[cryptor]

A great result for us tonight would be doing a live trade for our first selection that sees us move back a few spots to gain a future first, and then ending up with one of the many excellent options we've been talking about for weeks anyway.