AFL 2022 AFL Round 11

[Ohh Ok]

2u - Dustin Martin 2+ goals - $2.12 - SB
1u - Dustin Martin 3+ goals - $4.80 - SB
Quite like the bet with Lynch out of the side. Will need to play further forward to help Richmond kick a score. Only had 1 CBA after Lycnh went off injured.

2.5u - Papley 15+ disposals - $1.95 - TAB
In Papley’s last 4 games of 2021 he started going to a few CBAs for Sydney, this resulted in a solid output for goals as he was able to lose his defender whilst doing this. This also resulted in clearing in 3/4. Since his return in 2022 the Swans have continued to throw him into the centre bounces. Has only cleared in 1/4 this season as he has had some tougher match ups and has been building fitness. Had 88% TOG on Friday night and has a handy match up against the Tigers who he has historically performed well against.


2.5u - Murphy 10+ disposals/Murphy AGS - $2.75 - 365
Excluding injured games he has hit 10+ in 19/20 games across 2021 and 2022, with the loss being a 9 disposal game. Based on that we’d be very unlucky to lose on disposals and it is essentially an AGS bet at big odds. Has only kicked 1.6 this year but at these odds and in his role $2.75 is a massive price.


4u - Will Powell 12+, Will Powell 15+ disposals - $1.73 - Dabble
Keen on Powell here who is 6/9 for the season. Looking deeper at his losses, two of them have come against GWS and Brisbane who are two of the toughest teams for defenders, whilst on the weekend he landed on 14 (unlucky loss) against the dogs. Hit in 15/22 games last year so a long term +EV play. Hawthorn a great match up for defenders and will take most the kick ins.


2.5u - Billings 20+ disposals - $1.96 - SB
Bit of an overreaction from SportsBet here, came back in with 22 against Geelong and then had a quiet one against the Crows on Saturday night. Look a bit dewy so can make things a bit trickier on the outside. This one will be in ideal conditions and under the roof in a soft match up against North.


2.5u - Elliott 2+ goals - $2.50 - TAB
1.5u - Elliot 3+ goals - $6 - TAB
0.75u - Elliot 4+ goals - $17 - TAB
0.25u - Elliot 5+ goals - $67 - TAB
Am a big fan of the Small-Med forwards on Carlton. Kicked 2+ in 7/13 games in 2021. Didn’t kick any goals in what was poor conditions in his first game back from injury but should be better for the run. Massive price here.

2u - Laverde 15+ disposals - $2.40 - SB
Playing the price on this one, 6/8 for the year excluding injured games.

 

[Ohh Ok]

quiet in here this week...

 

[Kiddbrown]

Saints 100+. $13sb

North are due for another shocker and saints will pile it on under the dome

 

[demon_fanatic]

Bris GWS looks great for highest score of round only one I can see beating it is Dogs vs Eagles if Eagles don't try shut up shop any quarters.. I guess North Saints but could go high too... doubt GWS go back to slow ball movement and they'll just try match Brisbane on the fast deck, could see it going 210-220 if it flows all game

 

[anabac]

Saints 100+. $13sb

North are due for another shocker and saints will pile it on under the dome

Saints sitting 10th for points scored this year, can't see them scoring enough points to win by 100+. If Melb, Carl, Freo, Geel, Syd, Dogs can't beat North by 100+ theres no way the Saints will win by that margin. They are still the saints, this is actually a danger game for them!

 

[Kiddbrown]

Saints sitting 10th for points scored this year, can't see them scoring enough points to win by 100+. If Melb, Carl, Freo, Geel, Syd, Dogs can't beat North by 100+ theres no way the Saints will win by that margin. They are still the saints, this is actually a danger game for them!

I agree with what your saying.
I think north have been competitive for the last month and still been losing by 10 goals.
Got a feeling they are about to put in a real insipid performance very soon.
I’m hoping it’s this week

 

[Del125763]

Bris GWS looks great for highest score of round only one I can see beating it is Dogs vs Eagles if Eagles don't try shut up shop any quarters.. I guess North Saints but could go high too... doubt GWS go back to slow ball movement and they'll just try match Brisbane on the fast deck, could see it going 210-220 if it flows all game

Can get $3.50 on Ladbrokes for Bris v GWS to be highest scoring game of the Round. Giants under this new coaching brigade, will play a slightly different style to the one under Leon Cameron. Can see them going a bit more attacking and playing with a bit more dare. Watching the Giants on Sunday was aesthetically pleasing to the eye. Brisbane at home, are expected to be play an attractive style in winning their games.

If your feeling a tad adventurous Brisbane are $6 to be Top scoring team of the round.




Weather in Darwin on Saturday night will be around 30 degrees or so, which I think favours Gold Coast more. Dont expect too much dew on ground level.

 

[Del125763]

Jarrod Witts currently $2.15 on TAB for 15+. Sportsbet have him $1.17. Comes up against a ruckless Hawks. Has gone 19 and 20 in the last month. Reckon $2.15 is good value based on matchup.

And just like that

Its .............................Gone

 

[Jatz]

That changed quick...

 

[BloodRet]

Alright glad I stopped after Logan kicked 3.3 with the shaved post absolutely sickening.

Having another crack 200 on dusty 2 Logan ags @3.25 lads

 

[targett]

Topsport
Tue pm	-11.5	1.85	1.95	11.5
Tue am	-10.5	1.85	1.95	10.5
Tue am	-9.5	1.85	1.95	9.5
Tue am	-7.5	1.85	1.95	7.5
Mon pm	-7.5	1.9	1.9	7.5
Mon am	-8.5	1.9	1.9	8.5
	Syd			Rich

 

[targett]

Topsport
Wed pm	-44.5	1.9	1.9	44.5
Wed am	-41.5	1.85	1.95	41.5
Mon am	-40.5	1.85	1.95	40.5
Mon am	-39.5	1.85	1.95	39.5
Mon am	-38.5	1.9	1.9	38.5
	Geelong			Adel

 

[targett]

Topsport
Wed am	9.5	1.85	1.95	9.5
Wed am	9.5	1.9	1.9	9.5
Tue pm	10.5	1.85	1.95	10.5
Tue am	12.5	1.9	1.9	12.5
Mon am	13.5	1.9	1.9	13.5
Mon am	14.5	1.85	1.95	14.5
Mon am	16.5	1.85	1.95	16.5
Mon am	17.5	1.9	1.9	17.5
	Coll			Carl

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

D. Swallow 25+ disp
$3.50 @ TAB

Has had 50%+ CBA in 4 of the last 5 weeks. Has gone 27, 24, 12, and 25 in those weeks.

Going against the Hawks who give up the 6th most disposals, in what could be a humid, sticky, contested game in Darwin.

Odds are around $2.25 at other books

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

N. Blakey 25+ disp
$3 @ b365

Has take 9 kick ins the past 2 weeks, seemingly taking over from Jake Lloyd

44

Jake Lloyd

Age

32

Ht

182cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.4

5star

K

14.4

5star

HB

9.0

5star

M

4.3

4star

T

1.9

4star

MG

403.9

5star

D

23.4

5star

K

14.4

5star

HB

9.0

4star

M

4.3

4star

T

1.9

3star

MG

403.9

5star

D

23.2

5star

K

13.4

5star

HB

9.8

5star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.2

4star

MG

357.4

5star

.

Had 6 KI's 3 weeks ago against Gold Coast as well, over this period has gone 26, 25, 21.

Was at 21 against Carlton who give up the 2nd least disposals in the league, and now playing against Richmond who give up the 3rd most.

 

[BloodRet]

Soldo 4-5 @51, 201 expected to spend time forward without Lynch

More keen on dusty though will see if topsport/points have anything better tomorrow

 

[demon_fanatic]

Port vs Ess under 149.5 neds.. down to 145.5 b365 the weather looks terrible 10-20 mm sunday and 15-25 mm monday so it's just a case of if it hits in time Sunday for the game it says it will Increase by afternoon/evening with rainfall, this total could drop to low 140's for sure with Essendons struggling attack and Port happy to build around the boundary now .. good Middle oppurtunity by taking the under 149.5 now and keeping a close eye on the forecast early weekend/saturday.

 

[Nuggetz]

Logan Mcdonald 3+ is $7 on tab. Good value based on last week, he should've kicked 5. I'm on 3,4,5,6

 

[TryAnHit]

Port vs Ess under 149.5 neds.. down to 145.5 b365 the weather looks terrible 10-20 mm sunday and 15-25 mm monday so it's just a case of if it hits in time Sunday for the game it says it will Increase by afternoon/evening with rainfall, this total could drop to low 140's for sure with Essendons struggling attack and Port happy to build around the boundary now .. good Middle oppurtunity by taking the under 149.5 now and keeping a close eye on the forecast early weekend/saturday.

So overs and totally dry game? Like gws v eagles that finished on 210 points with a 144 total

 

[mac23]

So overs and totally dry game? Like gws v eagles that finished on 210 points with a 144 total

With rain forecast and a low total it seems for value you should just take a small play on both extremes of the under and over when it opens. If the rain actually hits a lot of these games struggle to get to 100pts. If the rain misses you can get the goal fest we saw last week.

For example:
Port v Ess
U100.5 $31
O200.5 $31

Volatility on both sides of the total has got to be way higher when inclement weather is predicted a week out. I swear these meteorologists throw more darts than us degenerates.

 

[demon_fanatic]

totals down to 143.5 now... I am not too worried.. its Thursday now... only 3 days out from the game... big rain on Monday means it'll be around.. it's just whether it hits early enough Sunday to impact the game... and then hopefully keeps raining during game.... I just take the under 149.5... can always hedge at low 140's if I feel the weather may screw us over... GWS/EAGLES was a lot different... that had the chance to be an exhibition as Eagles don't play shutdown footy each week and GWS had a new coach so played with vibrancy... Can't see Essendon troubling Port much in terms of scoring and Port will be happy to play their new more defensive style and bank the win here with top 8 aspirations in sight.. best thing would be Essendon to stay close early so it's a tense grind

If anyone is ballsy enough to play the spread under.. pointsbet hasnt adjusted .. still sitting at 149 but you're really throwing your faith in it being a low scoring grind and the weather hitting... once again though you can hedge back on the overs if you feel the rain won't hit... they also haven't moved gws vs bris.. its 180 with fixed up to 179.5... that normally means the over spread should be about 184-185 for a high scoring match but you get a slight market edge here if you feel like GWS will continue to attack and just go for it... so often they screw us over by going back to slow movement and rubbish gamestyle

 

[Del125763]

The pattern with wet weather predicted games this season a few days out has been, sportsbooks have lowered their lines closer and closer to game day.

And especially the games in Sydney, they have tended to go the Over. (and clear the overs by a fair margin)

I have never been to Adelaide but being a twilight game and being almost the start of the winter season, along with Port Adelaides way of play, this has the makings of a low scoring game.

Thats where the meteorologists earn their big bucks.

Accuweather predicting: 4.4 mm of rain during the day, 11 mm of rain during the evening and 27mm at night.

BOM for Adelaide predicting 10-20 mm of rain for Sunday.

Another factor that might be underestimated is the wind as well. Hearing wind ranges from 20 km/hr to 40km/hr. (North to North easterly, which from what I gather is an advantage to the left of the TV screen). That in the old 90's footy definition would be worth a 2-3 goals in a quarter advantage going one way.

Reckon this might be the game to get on a small forward to be higher goalscorers.

If anyone is ballsy enough to play the spread under.. pointsbet hasnt adjusted .. still sitting at 149 but you're really throwing your faith in it being a low scoring grind and the weather hitting...

PointsBet spread for Total Match Points now is down to 140-146.

 

[mac23]

PORT VS ESS
SB 146.5 $1.88
TAB/LADS 141.5 $1.90

Sportsbet the place to go if anyone still keen for a look in at the unders. Huge disparity you wouldn’t think lasts long.

 

[demon_fanatic]

yeh doubt it will get much lower than 141.5 unless the forecast changes to heavy showers hour before game and during game too... good for my hedge though now

 

[TryAnHit]

yeh doubt it will get much lower than 141.5 unless the forecast changes to heavy showers hour before game and during game too... good for my hedge though now

Yep 140 is about as low as they go.

I think the freo / pies got to 134.5 but they were playing in puddles and was windy