AFL 2022 AFL Round 17

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[bulletride]

The Nick Haynes

26

Nick Haynes

Age

33

Ht

192cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.4

4star

K

11.4

4star

HB

4.9

4star

M

6.2

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

326.8

4star

D

17.4

4star

K

13.9

5star

HB

3.5

2star

M

8.0

5star

T

1.5

2star

MG

326.8

5star

D

7.8

2star

K

4.4

2star

HB

3.4

3star

M

2.4

3star

T

2.2

4star

as a forward experiment might not have produced any goals yet but both games have been in the wet and he's been getting plenty of touches inside F50. With the Giants attacking style plus a (hopefully) dry game coming up he's worth a shot at defender odds.

B365
AGS $2.85
2+ $13
3+ $91
4+ $750

 

[EFL Boy]

Few early ones I like on B365:

COLL/NM
Paul Curtis (goals in 4 of past 5)
AGS $2.20

Cam Zurhaar (goals in previous 9 games, 2+ in 6/9 and 3 in 3/9)
AGS $1.57
2+ $2.45
3+ $6

GC/RICH
Shane Edwards

10

Shane Edwards

Age

36

Ht

182cm

Wt

78kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.2

4star

K

8.1

3star

HB

9.1

5star

M

2.6

3star

T

2.9

4star

CL

3.0

4star

D

16.4

4star

K

6.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.6

1star

T

3.0

4star

CL

4.2

5star

D

8.6

3star

K

5.2

2star

HB

3.4

3star

M

3.4

4star

T

1.2

3star

(goals in 5 of past 6, 2 in 2/6)
AGS $1.83
2+ 3.20

STK/FRE
Jade Gresham

11

Jade Gresham

Age

27

Ht

177cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.4

4star

K

10.2

4star

HB

7.2

4star

M

3.2

3star

T

2.7

4star

G

1.1

4star

D

17.5

4star

K

10.8

4star

HB

6.8

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

2.0

3star

G

0.5

4star

D

11.8

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

5.8

4star

M

2.6

3star

T

3.4

5star

G

0.4

3star

(0.2 on the weekend, ignoring Sydney game.. previous games were 3.1, 2.2, 2.0. Also 6 games of 2+ this season)
AGS $2.10
2+ $5
3+ $19
4+ $90

PA/GWS
Stephen Coniglio

3

Stephen Coniglio

Age

31

Ht

182cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

24.5

5star

K

13.0

5star

HB

11.5

5star

M

3.8

4star

T

4.7

5star

CL

4.7

5star

D

21.3

5star

K

12.5

5star

HB

8.8

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

3.8

4star

CL

5.4

5star

D

19.2

5star

K

8.2

4star

HB

11.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.2

4star

CL

3.0

5star

(ignoring the slop on the weekend, 4 previous games were 1.0, 2.1, 3.2, 1.0)
AGS $1.77
2+ 3.10
3+ $9

BL/ESS
Kyle Langford

4

Kyle Langford

Age

28

Ht

192cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.7

4star

K

8.3

3star

HB

7.3

5star

M

3.9

4star

T

3.3

5star

G

0.7

4star

D

17.4

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

8.4

4star

M

4.4

4star

T

1.6

3star

G

0.7

4star

D

8.2

2star

K

3.2

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

2.6

4star

G

0.6

3star

(78% forward half & kicked 1.0 last week)
AGS $2.15
2+ $5.50

Lachie Neale

9

Lachie Neale

Age

31

Ht

177cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.0

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

15.5

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.7

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

28.3

5star

K

13.9

5star

HB

14.4

5star

M

4.6

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

7.4

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

(kicked 2 goals in each of previous 3 games vs ESS)
AGS $2.05
2+ 4.50

HAW/ADEL
Sam Butler (goals in 4 of past 6 games, scoring shots in all)
AGS $2.05
2+ 4.75

WC/CARL
Josh Honey (may not even play, but shown an ability to kick goals, 80% forward half last week)
AGS $2.65
2+ $11

 

[EFL Boy]

Early AGS multi:

Zurhaar
Edwards
Gresham
Coniglio
S. Butler

$21.93 B365

EDIT: Same multi pays $7.02 on TAB & $7.73 on SB.

 

[Atavistic]

De Goey 4+ vs North @34 interest anyone?

At TAB.

4.25 at B365 and 12.50 at SB.


Bah, the odds have come in now.

 

[targett]

The Nick Haynes as a forward experiment might not have produced any goals yet but both games have been in the wet and he's been getting plenty of touches inside F50. With the Giants attacking style plus a (hopefully) dry game coming up he's worth a shot at defender odds.

B365
AGS $2.85
2+ $13
3+ $91
4+ $750

This bloke is there more to create a contest IMO. These odds are justified given this , his kicking ability and GWSs depth of Goal kickers . GL

 

[targett]

De Goey 4+ vs North @34 interest anyone?

At TAB.

4.25 at B365 and 12.50 at SB.

I was at the game on Sat night . He didnt look interested at all . Not to say he cant turn things around but he will be predominantly Mid

 

[Atavistic]

I was at the game on Sat night . He didnt look interested at all . Not to say he cant turn things around but he will be predominantly Mid

Do players have to be interested to kick goals against Norf? They just have to be on the ground, don't they?

 

[GROTTO]

Alright which degenerate on here is smashing the Kenny Hinkley market to coach GWS next year???

Since my post from the Round 16 thread he has been smashed in from $21 into $13..

Yes Ohh Ok and Robo87 Im looking at you guys.

All jokes aside, I cant believe he has come in.

 

[bulletride]

This bloke is there more to create a contest IMO. These odds are justified given this , his kicking ability and GWSs depth of Goal kickers . GL

Oh I definitely agree as far as his ability as a forward goes, I'm not expecting much but stranger things have happened. At those odds he only needs one to profit then anything else is a bonus from there.

Someone's been smashing it anyway, into the revolting odds of $5.50 for 3 now, giving me a 10x cash out option.

 

[Ohh Ok]

Alright which degenerate on here is smashing the Kenny Hinkley market to coach GWS next year???

Since my post from the Round 16 thread he has been smashed in from $21 into $13..

Yes Ohh Ok and Robo87 Im looking at you guys.

All jokes aside, I cant believe he has come in.

Nope not me. $21 is unders. He’ll go into coaching darkness after he finishes up at Port.

 

[Robo87]

Alright which degenerate on here is smashing the Kenny Hinkley market to coach GWS next year???

Since my post from the Round 16 thread he has been smashed in from $21 into $13..

Yes Ohh Ok and Robo87 Im looking at you guys.

All jokes aside, I cant believe he has come in.

Lol, no it wasn't me either.

 

[GROTTO]

Nope not me. $21 is unders. He’ll go into coaching darkness after he finishes up at Port.

Lol, no it wasn't me either.

Kenny is the type to bet on himself to be the next coach GWS, so that he can use it as leverage and tell the Power that he is an in demand coach so that they offer him another contract extension. lol

 

[snagbreac]

If I back Essendon at 1000 on Betfair, is it likely to get matched?

 

[Fizza]

Early AGS multi:

Zurhaar
Edwards
Gresham
Coniglio
S. Butler

$21.93 B365

EDIT: Same multi pays $7.02 on TAB & $7.73 on SB.

Absolutely tailed got 20.84

 

[X_box_X]

If I back Essendon at 1000 on Betfair, is it likely to get matched?

18 years ago I travelled through a time machine at super sonic speed (about 9.5 trillion km/h), I arrived at the MCG on Saturday 4 September 2004. Essendon fans were celebrating their Elimination Final victory against Geelong.

Long story short, I ran into a bookmaker and I asked for odds on Essendon not to win a final for each year as per the number sported on the back of Essendon's spearhead Full Forward at the time. I was offered that exact price - $1,000.

I took it before arriving back in the year 2022. I was paid out for my win but due to inflation and the cost to fund my time travel, I actually lost money.

The lesson learned here is even when you win you lose.

 

[lebsta]

Anyone have any thoughts on the totals? Do any totals look a bit low or high?

Geel v Melb 160.5
Syd v WB 158.5
Coll v NM 165.5
GC v Rich 166.5
St Kilda v Freo 158.5
Port v GWS 168.5
Bris v Ess 178.5 (opened 176.5)
Hawks v Adel 172.5 (opened 170.5)
West Coast v Carl 169.5 (opened 168.5)

 

[snagbreac]

18 years ago I travelled through a time machine at super sonic speed (about 9.5 trillion km/h), I arrived at the MCG on Saturday 4 September 2004. Essendon fans were celebrating their Elimination Final victory against Geelong.

Long story short, I ran into a bookmaker and I asked for odds on Essendon not to win a final for each year as per the number sported on the back of Essendon's spearhead Full Forward at the time. I was offered that exact price - $1,000.

I took it before arriving back in the year 2022. I was paid out for my win but due to inflation and the cost to fund my time travel, I actually lost money.

The lesson learned here is even when you win you lose.

All jokes aside, would it get backed?

I'll changed the team to Geelong. Geelong to win against Melbourne @ 1000.

 

[X_box_X]

All jokes aside, would it get backed?

I'll changed the team to Geelong. Geelong to win against Melbourne @ 1000.

How would that be matched when there are plenty in the queue in front of you?

For odds of $1,000 to be matched, you firstly have to enter a market with no liquidity. The game you speak of currently has $0 liquidity on the total game score. Maybe, just maybe, if you put a $1,000 back bet in the queue for 150 points or less, someone will be stupid enough to match you. The odds of that happening would be akin to Essendon not winning a final for 18+ years.

I recall seeing the USA mixed gender 4x400m team backed at $1,000 on Betfair in a major event not too long ago. It was either last year's Olympics or the World Championships proceeding that. In their SF, they were initially disqualified which meant they were out of gold medal contention. There was an appeal and on review their disqualification was overturned and therefore they qualified for the final. Their lay price for the final was around the $3 mark IIRC.

There have also been multiple instances where winning horses were backed in play at odds of $1,000 on BF after the commentator incorrectly announced the winning horse.

It happens.

 

[snagbreac]

How would that be matched when there are plenty in the queue in front of you?

For odds of $1,000 to be matched, you firstly have to enter a market with no liquidity. The game you speak of currently has $0 liquidity on the total game score. Maybe, just maybe, if you put a $1,000 back bet in the queue for 150 points or less, someone will be stupid enough to match you. The odds of that happening would be akin to Essendon not winning a final for 18+ years.

I recall seeing the USA mixed gender 4x400m team backed at $1,000 on Betfair in a major event not too long ago. It was either last year's Olympics or the World Championships proceeding that. In their SF, they were initially disqualified which meant they were out of gold medal contention. There was an appeal and on review their disqualification was overturned and therefore they qualified for the final. Their lay price for the final was around the $3 mark IIRC.

There have also been multiple instances where winning horses were backed in play at odds of $1,000 on BF after the commentator incorrectly announced the winning horse.

It happens.

What if it was just $100? Also, why does there have to be no liquidity? Sorry if it sounds dumb, I'm new.

 

[X_box_X]

What if it was just $100? Also, why does there have to be no liquidity? Sorry if it sounds dumb, I'm new.

In a high volume market like an AFL head to head, there will always be more attractive prices on offer than the $1,000 (or $100) odds you have suggested.



The best lay odds on offer for Geelong currently is $2.04. There is $31 available at that lay price waiting to be matched. There's also $148 available at $2.06, and $141 available at $2.12. These positions are at or near the beginning of the queue. For your bet to be matched, someone would literally have to place $10,000 worth of lay bets on Geelong at average odds of $4.97 (going by what's currently available in the queue) before the next best price available is $1,000. So not only would someone have to make an error for you to be matched, someone would also have to be stupid enough to lay Geelong for $2,806 at average odds of $4.97. I.e. It isn't going to happen.

If you're entering a market with low volume and you put in a dummy offer, it increases your chances of your outrageous bet to be matched (although that's still very, very unlikely).

 

[Bucking Bronco]

What if it was just $100? Also, why does there have to be no liquidity? Sorry if it sounds dumb, I'm new.

If you are trying to bet a team at $1000 odds then you are going to have to find someone who is interested in betting the other team at $1.001 odds, as that's how it works on Betfair.

Would you fancy doing that?

In saying that sometimes you do see random bot action match like 1 cent on long odds of $100+.

I've also seen a fair few times really early in the week someone bet a team down to $1.01 (with like $1K going on the $1.01 odds) when they are a $1.80 or something elsewhere - I assume a noob mistake, although I've also read of people who trade between accounts at propesterous odds to reduce premium charge.

 

[snagbreac]

In a high volume market like an AFL head to head, there will always be more attractive prices on offer than the $1,000 (or $100) odds you have suggested.

View attachment 1439781

The best lay odds on offer for Geelong currently is $2.04. There is $31 available at that lay price waiting to be matched. There's also $148 available at $2.06, and $141 available at $2.12. These positions are at or near the beginning of the queue. For your bet to be matched, someone would literally have to place $10,000 worth of lay bets on Geelong at average odds of $4.97 (going by what's currently available in the queue) before the next best price available is $1,000. So not only would someone have to make an error for you to be matched, someone would also have to be stupid enough to lay Geelong for $2,806 at average odds of $4.97. I.e. It isn't going to happen.

If you're entering a market with low volume and you put in a dummy offer, it increases your chances of your outrageous bet to be matched (although that's still very, very unlikely).

If you are trying to bet a team at $1000 odds then you are going to have to find someone who is interested in betting the other team at $1.001 odds, as that's how it works on Betfair.

Would you fancy doing that?

In saying that sometimes you do see random bot action match like 1 cent on long odds of $100+.

I've also seen a fair few times really early in the week someone bet a team down to $1.01 (with like $1K going on the $1.01 odds) when they are a $1.80 or something elsewhere - I assume a noob mistake, although I've also read of people who trade between accounts at propesterous odds to reduce premium charge.

Thank you both!

 

[BloodRet]

Jezza 3

Buddy 3
Naughton 3
Heeney 2

Reiwoldt 3

Finlayson 2
@187 Lads BOOSTED

I think port should bring in Lycett who is available.

 

[HTPunter]

Petracca fantasy line interesting once it opens.

$1.60 for 100+ currently, $2.30 for 110+ (Lads).

He's gone over 100 9/15 this year, but once he's gone over 100 he's gone 110+ 8/9 times.

Ignore the 100+, no value there, but think value at $2.30 for something he's done 8/15 times, he's in form, he gets disposals, scores, marks and tackles, has Gawn back to help give him stoppage advantage, and Geelong concede clearances (only won the count 6 times this year and only 3 since round 5) as their game doesn't rely on it.