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AFL 2022 AFL Round 17

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HTPunter said:
Think there's better than a 1 in 34 chance Ziebell plays defence today. Hall and Walker out, so lacking experience down there, Noble has shown a desire to have an experienced player down back (and let's be honest they're all rubbish anyway so probably doesn't hurt). If he does play down back he'd be an odds on chance at 100+ fantasy (kick ins, lots of inside 50s for the Pies) and that's $34 on Pointsbet. Worth a small amount as if he plays forward he will struggle to get 40 but just took my interest.

90+ $14
100+ $34

Additionally Stephenson played his best stats game in a long time last week, playing a big role in Norths chip chip chip turnover game. Expect that to continue today. Excellent kick:handball ratio, lots of uncontested marks, Pies will happily concede the chip kicks North will aim to do and won't apply pressure to him.

90+ $2.25
100+ $3.75

Corr often involved too
70+ $2.30
80+ $4
Click to expand...
Stephenson will have some spite today too, We seen it with Treloar where he shredded us.
 
NonPhixion said:
Stephenson will have some spite today too, We seen it with Treloar where he shredded us.
Click to expand...
Treloar though in a tough stronger Dogs team back last year vs Stephenson in a soft as butter team, probably the main difference.

I do agree Stephenson will be up and about to try and hurt be it goals or possessions.
 
NonPhixion said:
Stephenson will have some spite today too, We seen it with Treloar where he shredded us.
Click to expand...

GROTTO said:
Treloar though in a tough stronger Dogs team back last year vs Stephenson in a soft as butter team, probably the main difference.

I do agree Stephenson will be up and about to try and hurt be it goals or possessions.
Click to expand...

Reckon based on last week he's a real strong chance to get 10+ marks and 20+ disposals along the back flank, good value adder for multis, won't worry the Pies though unless he starts getting the ball up on the wing.
 

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Collingwood vs North Melbourne
1u - McDonald 25+ disposals - $3.75 - Dabble
Play the 25+ as a SGM with 20+. Just adding a bit to McDonald, hit 25+ in 3/6 games without Hall this season.

2u - McCreery AGS - $1.80 - 365
Has kicked goals in 7/11 games this year and should be looking to get on on the board today against North. Will only play forward so should find himself an opportunity.

2.5u - Davies-Uniacke over 24.5 disposals - $1.87 - 365
Is showing signs of improvement this year averaging 23.9 (removed injured game) compared to 22 last year. He’s shown significant improvement across his last 7 games going 25+ in 5/7 and averaging 25.7 across this stretch. Going to back the up and coming bull to have a strong day against the office against the pies who average the 4th most contested disposals against and third most uncontested disposals. We’ve been able to see the Pies been a strong match up for inside mids season long so good spot here for LDU.

2.5u - Hoskin-Elliot over 15.5 disposals - $1.80 - TopSport
Has gone over in each of his last 4 games which is a result of being given time on the wing rather than playing deep forward all game. That role looks to continue today and should see this hit comfortably against North.

Gold Coast vs Richmond
2.5u - Ralphsmith 15+ disposals - $1.96 - SB
With Baker into the midfielder, and Vlastuin suspended, Ralphsmith should be playing a clear role off halfback. Ralphsmith landed on 14 last week, but this included a 9 disposal first quarter, much of which included Vlastuin off for an extended period to manage an injury. Good chance to hit the 15 today.

4u - Broad 20+ disposals - $1.94 - SB
The other one that should benefit from Vlastuin’s absence. Will take the majority of kick ins today and become a more valued ball user off half back. Hit 20+ in 4/5 games that Vlastuin has missed this season.

2.5u - Miller over 29.5 disposals - $1.83 - PointsBet
Should be a solid day out for Miller, Tigers won’t tag him and allow the opposition’s best midfielder to have a day out. Recent numbers vs tigers; Kelly 40, Guthrie 28, Walsh 34, Cripps 34. He had 36 last time he faced the Tigers.

2.5u - Prestia over 26.5 disposals - PointsBet/365
Ball magnet. Is 6/8 this season on this number when you exclude the injured games.

St Kilda vs Fremantle
2.5u - Sinclair over 27.5 disposals - $1.87 - 365
Sinclair’s form has been insane hitting 30+ in 6 of his last 7 with the loss coming due to a hard tag placed on him. Freo haven’t tagged too often this season, and when they have it’s usually been a mid game change to a midfielder. Other times they’ve preferred to back their system in. Freo giving up solid numbers consistently to defenders and I can’t see them stopping this man today.

2u - Walters AGS - $1.87 - 365
Price too large for Walters, only need to look at last year where he goaled in 13/16 games to understand the value in this. Full strength midfield so will be deep forward all day.
 
Ohh Ok said:
Collingwood vs North Melbourne
1u - McDonald 25+ disposals - $3.75 - Dabble
Play the 25+ as a SGM with 20+. Just adding a bit to McDonald, hit 25+ in 3/6 games without Hall this season.

2u - McCreery AGS - $1.80 - 365
Has kicked goals in 7/11 games this year and should be looking to get on on the board today against North. Will only play forward so should find himself an opportunity.

2.5u - Davies-Uniacke over 24.5 disposals - $1.87 - 365
Is showing signs of improvement this year averaging 23.9 (removed injured game) compared to 22 last year. He’s shown significant improvement across his last 7 games going 25+ in 5/7 and averaging 25.7 across this stretch. Going to back the up and coming bull to have a strong day against the office against the pies who average the 4th most contested disposals against and third most uncontested disposals. We’ve been able to see the Pies been a strong match up for inside mids season long so good spot here for LDU.

2.5u - Hoskin-Elliot over 15.5 disposals - $1.80 - TopSport
Has gone over in each of his last 4 games which is a result of being given time on the wing rather than playing deep forward all game. That role looks to continue today and should see this hit comfortably against North.

Gold Coast vs Richmond
2.5u - Ralphsmith 15+ disposals - $1.96 - SB
With Baker into the midfielder, and Vlastuin suspended, Ralphsmith should be playing a clear role off halfback. Ralphsmith landed on 14 last week, but this included a 9 disposal first quarter, much of which included Vlastuin off for an extended period to manage an injury. Good chance to hit the 15 today.

4u - Broad 20+ disposals - $1.94 - SB
The other one that should benefit from Vlastuin’s absence. Will take the majority of kick ins today and become a more valued ball user off half back. Hit 20+ in 4/5 games that Vlastuin has missed this season.

2.5u - Miller over 29.5 disposals - $1.83 - PointsBet
Should be a solid day out for Miller, Tigers won’t tag him and allow the opposition’s best midfielder to have a day out. Recent numbers vs tigers; Kelly 40, Guthrie 28, Walsh 34, Cripps 34. He had 36 last time he faced the Tigers.

2.5u - Prestia over 26.5 disposals - PointsBet/365
Ball magnet. Is 6/8 this season on this number when you exclude the injured games.

St Kilda vs Fremantle
2.5u - Sinclair over 27.5 disposals - $1.87 - 365
Sinclair’s form has been insane hitting 30+ in 6 of his last 7 with the loss coming due to a hard tag placed on him. Freo haven’t tagged too often this season, and when they have it’s usually been a mid game change to a midfielder. Other times they’ve preferred to back their system in. Freo giving up solid numbers consistently to defenders and I can’t see them stopping this man today.

2u - Walters AGS - $1.87 - 365
Price too large for Walters, only need to look at last year where he goaled in 13/16 games to understand the value in this. Full strength midfield so will be deep forward all day.
Click to expand...
Do you think Mcdonald takes kick ins now or they give it to some spud who butchers it like Corr lol??? I really like Richmond today.. things have changed in Gold Coast but no rankine and the hurt of last weeks loss basically means no finals.. I think theyll every so slightly drop off in intensity today and that will be enough for the Tigers to win with finals on the line... even without hugely important Vlastuin down back..... I think they have enough experience across the park to get the win here... Also Rowell's fantasy line only went up 2 I'll ride the 80.5 as Richmond normally don't mind giving up bigger numbers to the guns in the middle. Probably take Miller as well coming off 127 and 132.. weather is better today so maybe not the conditions for him to get 10 tackles but his line is around 115, very gettable
 
Taking basically all the mids to get goals for Collingwood today. Expect them to blow North away, and I like the odds on a lot of these.

1.5u - Hoskin-Elliot over 15.5 disposals @ $1.84 (TS)
1.5u - Hoskin-Elliot AGS @ $1.80 (B365)
1.5u - McCreery AGS @ $1.80 (B365)
1.5u - Cameron AGS @ $1.80 (B365)
1.5u - Sidebottom AGS @ $2.50 (PB)
1.5u - Pendlebury AGS @ $4.50 (PB)
1.5u - Adams AGS @ $3.50 (PB)
1.5u - J Daicos AGS @ $1.75 (PB)
1.5u - N Daicos AGS @ $3.50 (PB)
1.5u - Lipinski AGS @ $2.45 (SB)
 
Fun multi for all the Saturday games too:

0.5u - All AGS - McCreery, Hoskin-Elliot, Castagna, Ainsworth, Higgins, Schultz, Powell-Pepper, Boak @ $44
 
McCreery 2+
Josh Daicos 2+
Ginnivan 2+
Henry 2+
Zuhaar 2+

@87.50 hehe
 
$1.40 just seems a bit short for a debut player to score a goal in his 1st game.
 
Mihocek 4
Ginnivan 3
Henry 2
@20 sb boosted

Mihocek 5
Ginnivan 2
@14.75

Ginnivan 3
Henry 3
@6.75

Mihocek 3
Ginnivan 2
Zurhaar 2
Henry 2
@15.48 pb

McCreery 2-5 train
 

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Odds that dont make sense

$4 John Noble anytime goalscorer @ PB

$1.30 John Noble anytime goalscorer @ TAB/ $2.40 for 2+ Goals at TAB

Maybe TAB know something we dont......
 
2.5u - Josh Daicos 20+ disposals - $1.87 - SB
Has hit in 10/15 games this season. Soft match up against North at the MCG. Plenty of space for him to use his hard running and get some cheap possessions.

3u - Port Adelaide -7.5 (2nd Half) - $1.90 - TAB
Massive must win game for Port here with a loss basically ending their season. Love the spot getting at the second half line here as GWS rank 15th and 16th for 3rd and 4th quarters. This ties in nicely with the fact that GWS played in horrendous conditions last week and will face potential burn out in the game today as a result. Port currently have the worst percentage of all teams in the top 12. If they start getting on top tonight they’ll need to put the foot down and really put on a score.
 
demon_fanatic said:
Do you think Mcdonald takes kick ins now or they give it to some spud who butchers it like Corr lol??? I really like Richmond today.. things have changed in Gold Coast but no rankine and the hurt of last weeks loss basically means no finals.. I think theyll every so slightly drop off in intensity today and that will be enough for the Tigers to win with finals on the line... even without hugely important Vlastuin down back..... I think they have enough experience across the park to get the win here... Also Rowell's fantasy line only went up 2 I'll ride the 80.5 as Richmond normally don't mind giving up bigger numbers to the guns in the middle. Probably take Miller as well coming off 127 and 132.. weather is better today so maybe not the conditions for him to get 10 tackles but his line is around 115, very gettable
Click to expand...
Should do mate
 
NYRB said:
Odds that dont make sense

$4 John Noble anytime goalscorer @ PB

$1.30 John Noble anytime goalscorer @ TAB/ $2.40 for 2+ Goals at TAB

Maybe TAB know something we dont......
Click to expand...
Thanks I couldnt find Noble anywhere else.

No markets for him to kick a goal.
 

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probably only bet of the day but 2 dollar bonus bet

Mihochek 2+
Ginnivan 2+
Elliot 1+
Henry 1+
Zurhaar 1+
Larkey 1+
Daicos 20+
Crisp 20+
Simpkin 20+
LDU 20+
Noble 15+
Taylor 15+
@18.19

i had big multis like this so im already counting this as an L
 
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