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AFL 2022 AFL Round 18

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Hawks board seem pretty confident the Impey forward role will continue, 1.3 on the weekend and up against weak opposition in WC again this week. Odds on B365 came in almost instantly but still decent.

AGS $2.10
2+ $5
3+ $21

Also think Ryan Clarke is worth a go again if selected, should get a negating forward job on one of Freo's running defenders and has managed to hit the scoreboard in each game in that role so far (2.0 and 1.0).
AGS $2.55 B365
2+ $10
 
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To add to the goalkickers on b365

Marshall $2.05 (6/11 with Ryder in, Keath to King gives Marshall a Gardner or Schache type)

Coleman-Jones $2.25 - 2/5 this year, North should be reasonably competitive again (sub 8 goals) considering Tigers outs (Balta, Cotchin, Martin, Lynch, rucks, Lambert), like these odds for a 2nd ruck/2nd tall forward

Reeves $2.10 - same as the tip from last week, more tall timber time up forward for Reeves, only needs 1 high ball to mark and kick truly, should get it v WC. Probably worth waiting for teams?

Gawn $1.60 - 2nd week back, should really look to expose Finlayson +- Lycett if he's named. I think he could kick 3 and Jackson to be given more ruck time.

Goldstein without Xerri this year has gone 90, 74, 73, 97 in fantasy points. I like him to dominate the Tigers rucks, or lack thereof. Can easily rack up 40 hitouts+ and should get a few more disposals than his 12 ppg average this year by virtue of more ruck time (av 15.5 without Xerri). Goldstein also got a 108 v Saints when Xerri only played 58% TOG and Goldy got the number 1 ruck role.
North probably seeking competiveness right now, plus looking how CCJ goes in the 2nd ruck role (Goldy 62 ruck contests last week, CCJ 35 - 19-10 center bounce split), I'll be looking to chase Goldstein 80-120 fantasy points, looking at his av of 84ish without Xerri this year + huge ruck advantage + his ability to go huge over the years where he gets 50 minimum in hitouts alone.
 
I think Petracca will lift in Oliver's absence, hard to know for sure when Oliver has played 127 straight games but last week Petracca was $2.30-2.40 for 110+ fantasy points, he got 96 to continue his run of either sub 100 or over 110, like his odds to get it this week, expecting it to shorten to $2 which I think is fair. Probably look at Jordon over 80 (season av 76.3) and Viney 110 (av 99) - all 3 depend on odds too.

Max Gawn should dominate too. Either gets Finlayson who he'll ragdoll, or Lycett who he ragdolled last time, plus he'll push forward. 130+ on the cards.
 
Coleman-Jones $2.25 - 2/5 this year, North should be reasonably competitive again (sub 8 goals) considering Tigers outs (Balta, Cotchin, Martin, Lynch, rucks, Lambert), like these odds for a 2nd ruck/2nd tall forward
I put money on him last week and he did nothing. I'm still upset with him.

Not sure I'm ready to be hurt again.
 
Gary Rohan $1.75 ags and $4.75 for 2 goals on TAB is value. Should’ve had a few last week and is slowly building is form (regular season form lol) back up to where it should be
 
Anyone else think the total 160.5 in Carlton v Geelong game is a bit low? At the MCG this year Carlton have averaged 82 and Geelong 102.
 
Anyone else think the total 160.5 in Carlton v Geelong game is a bit low? At the MCG this year Carlton have averaged 82 and Geelong 102.
In MCG night games since the start of June, from what I can see 4/5 have gone under. Hate betting on MCG night games in winter for goals/high scores.
 
just a reminder melb port is at traeger park in darwin this weekend not at any of the usual grounds, might be some tired players running around the later in the game it gets
Will just point out that Traeger Park is in Alice Springs, not Darwin. Where Melbourne have played 7 years in a row prior to last year.
 
Pointsbet fantasy, tackles, clearances and marks markets out.

Bont 8 clearances is $5, 6 is $2.15.
Gone 8, 5, 8, 7 since the bye. Obviously that's somewhat arbitrary but do think the bye plus an additional week off in round 8 would have helped him lots. Either way if someone has done something 2 of the last 4 games and is a gun and has $5 odds I'll take it
 

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Anyone interested in a Lincoln McCarthy train? Kicked 4 against GWS earlier this year.
 
In MCG night games since the start of June, from what I can see 4/5 have gone under. Hate betting on MCG night games in winter for goals/high scores.
Good point bud, even went back to night games in June/July 2021 and most of them sailed under too.
 
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Brandon Starcevich $2.30 for 20+ Lads, had 26 on the weekend taking the kick in’s in Rich’s absence.
 
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Noble gone, North Melb to put up a highly competitive showing against a depleted Richmond this week.

Larkey 2+
Zurhaar 2+
Ziebell AGS
Goldstein AGS
North +42.5
Under 172.5 total points

@26.50 SB
 

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AFL 2022 AFL Round 18


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