AFL 2022 AFL Round 19

[LongBombFromOutside50]

Pretty sure he was joking guys.

I agree with the earlier sentiment, I'm backing Freo H2H all day at odds of $1.75 or above. Having said that I tend to sometimes be irrationally bullish on my own team, so tail at your own risk.

 

[BloodRet]

 

[Del125763]

these are novelty markets out well before teams are out, I think you will be surprised how little it takes to move a market like this, would stand out when multiple accounts are backing at the same time that likely happens from here, even if those aren't winning bettors.

$3.8 to $2.65 is not a big move here either

Depends on how you see it. For some , people would view a 30% decrease in odds as a bit of a price decrease. Each to their own though.

 

[Johanpetro]

Depends on how you see it. For some , people would view a 30% decrease in odds as a bit of a price decrease. Each to their own though.

8 marks also came in from $13 to $6. Very big decrease.

 

[Del125763]

From experience , Im not a 'herd mentality' backer. But being part of a group , and placing bets all at the same time with these novelty markets, the prices would adjusted. So what teamlenny says is right in that regard.

PointsBet to be the ones that adjust odds the quickest.

 

[targett]

Anyone LOL

 

[GROTTO]

From experience , Im not a 'herd mentality' backer. But being part of a group , and placing bets all at the same time with these novelty markets, the prices would adjusted. So what teamlenny says is right in that regard.

PointsBet to be the ones that adjust odds the quickest.

Even if no one else saw a good bet on here outside of this board, if all of a sudden if market is being pillaged and plundered by 20 posters in here its more than enough if the stakes are high enough to move lines and cut odds.

I have placed bets and seen odds come in after just one bet, BloodRet has seen and done it himself. Similarly, odds I have seen myself literally drop to half when Im trying to place a bet on, Ive seen odds drop from $67 to half that for 3+

NYRB let me know when you get around to seeing the movie Bookies. Here is something in the interim for you to watch and enjoy.

Billy Walter the Messiah of Degenerates. Its who mouncey2franklin prays to at night.

 

[GROTTO]

The irony of the news of Clarko to North, is that the odds of my Clarko to GWS bet has shortened.

 

[demon_fanatic]

I suprised north vs hawks has dropped to 167.5 from 171.5... Weather and wind no issue and both teams wont be cagey no finals on line and both are playing attacking footy.. Also like ess v pies over 167.5 , bombers playing fast and pies like that style too

 

[Man of leisure]

Even if no one else saw a good bet on here outside of this board, if all of a sudden if market is being pillaged and plundered by 20 posters in here its more than enough if the stakes are high enough to move lines and cut odds.

I have placed bets and seen odds come in after just one bet, BloodRet has seen and done it himself. Similarly, odds I have seen myself literally drop to half when Im trying to place a bet on, Ive seen odds drop from $67 to half that for 3+

bro come on do you really think this board has that much influence?

there's just no way

i know this because there was a dude on this board a couple months ago saying so

9 minutes between this

Ash Johnson 2+@$5.20 SB
3+@$19
4+@$73.50
5+@$251

Played his first game in poor conditions last week and managed to look likely kicking 2.1 playing deep forward.
Sundays game will be played at the G in mostly sunny 18 degree weather so that should help him. Much less value at other books. 2.30,5.50,15,55 for 2,3,4,5 at B365. 67 for 5 at TAB

And this

Tried to tail but 29 for 4 now lol

On a Tuesday afternoon. The degenerates of the Bigfooty Punting board are moving the market I don’t care what any of the doubters say. The naysayers just want to demoralise us so that we don’t understand the power we have as a collective and individuals to empower ourselves financially, spiritually and as members of an oft oppressed and demonised minority by legitimising a reasonable and enjoyable source of tax free income. They want us to feel as insignificant grains of sand, washed about by the the waves, totally at the whim and vicissitudes of the external environment when in reality we hold the levers of power when we choose to except our position as movers of the market and thus bringing into alignment a new era of prosperity and respect for all degenerates.
I have proven that this board influences the market while drunk as **** and that is that. Nuff said. peace and love to all degenerates.
I will now wind down by watching the Billy Walters documentary that Grotto posted then go to sleep dreaming of winning 7 leg multibets

 

[Johanpetro]

I’ve said it about 5 times already this year but anyone who thinks this forum isn’t moving markets is a dead set muppet. There’s A LOT more lurkers here than people probably think.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

okay if it turns out we really can move the markets on this board, then it is time for a private message group

the invitees should include only the best and most amusing punters from this board

 

[Nuggetz]

Like heeney for multiples 3+ etc on pb. V crows who aren't that good and he kicks multiple goals even when he's playing shit

 

[Nuggetz]

I reckon Nathan Brown

22

Nathan Brown

Age

37

Ht

196cm

Wt

99kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.8

2star

K

3.9

2star

HB

4.9

4star

M

2.7

3star

T

1.8

4star

No current season stats available

D

6.4

2star

K

3.2

2star

HB

3.2

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.8

5star

lurks on this board. I'm on to you campaigner. I also don't think your hair is real. You rat haired bastard.

 

[Johanpetro]

okay if it turns out we really can move the markets on this board, then it is time for a private message group

the invitees should include only the best and most amusing punters from this board

Whatever happened to that bloke with the Essendon flair who kept posting how desperate he was for winners and was on the brink cos he kept losing? He can be mod of the prívate group

 

[Johanpetro]

Amartey/Ash Johnson AGS @ $3

Amartey 2+/ Ash Johnson 2+ @ $27 Lads

 

[BloodRet]

okay if it turns out we really can move the markets on this board, then it is time for a private message group

the invitees should include only the best and most amusing punters from this board

Imagine how many lurkers would panic and request to join “what u mean dude I post multies”

 

[Del125763]

I’ve said it about 5 times already this year but anyone who thinks this forum isn’t moving markets is a dead set muppet. There’s A LOT more lurkers here than people probably think.

okay if it turns out we really can move the markets on this board, then it is time for a private message group

the invitees should include only the best and most amusing punters from this board

Yep it doesnt make us punters feel better if the odds shorten when a selected few posts their bets.

I think we are just stating the facts.

AFL being a bit of a niche sport on a global scale, these price movements can get changed pretty quickly. (eg Goals, possessions, Tackles, Clearances, Marks , Totals , Head to Head )

Was part of a Brownlow group last year (and the guys know who they are- and some from very astute punters in that lot), single handedly moved their markets/prices with their notifications, getting bets all on at the same time etc.


Have used a number of different forums in the past but for AFL betting, this forum has some weight in terms of the handle of bets.

Just my thoughts anyway.

 

[BloodRet]

Amartey/Ash Johnson AGS @ $3

Amartey 2+/ Ash Johnson 2+ @ $27 Lads

Amarteys odds on ladbrokes are insane. I posted them on Monday and still hasn’t changed. Someone posted his pointsbet odds on here yesterday and they got smashed and were initially shorter than lads odds

 

[Johanpetro]

Amarteys odds on ladbrokes are insane. I posted them on Monday and still hasn’t changed. Someone posted his pointsbet odds on here yesterday and they got smashed and were initially shorter than lads odds

Think that was me who posted the PB ones haha.. got both PB and Lads odds hopefully he pulls up ok from his shoulder

 

[BloodRet]

Think that was me who posted the PB ones haha.. got both PB and Lads odds hopefully he pulls up ok from his shoulder

Lads odds just got bumped in. Our case in point. And yeah horse said that he could have come back onto the ground after he hurt it

 

[Del125763]

Amartey/Ash Johnson AGS @ $3

Amartey 2+/ Ash Johnson 2+ @ $27 Lads

The good news:

Ive tailed you on Amartey 2+ /Ash Johnson 2+ @ 21.75 on Lads. That looks a bit too big on initial inspection. If Amartey can snag 2 against one of the stingiest defences in the league, then there is no reason why he couldn't do it against Adelaide. The price has come in a bit since you posted. PointsBet only giving around $11.38 for the multi. I actually feel anything in high single digits is still a decent bet. Sportsbet for some weird reason dont have Amartey as a listed goalscorer. TAB only outlet under double digits at 9.10 as a multi.

The Bad News:

I only feel that the rain might hamper this bet. Bit of a downfall in Sydney this week with a fair amount of rain predicted.



Might be a game to look at a small forward to top Goal charts.

 

[Del125763]

Didn’t watch Freo v Swans last week. Im assuming he was substituted out of the game with some sort of injury?

If he is anything like this heat map from last week. Those odds are decent for me on Amartey

 

[BloodRet]

Didn’t watch Freo v Swans last week. Im assuming he was substituted out of the game with some sort of injury?

If he is anything like this heat map from last week. Those odds are decent for me on Amartey

View attachment 1451640

Injured shoulder in the fourth quarter, came off and didn’t go back on even though he could’ve. No sub made. For some reason they had amartey 1.73 to kick a goal and Reid at 1.28 who has also been doing the second duty ruck. Amartey has kicked 4 goals over the last 2 games and Reid 0.2. I don’t quite get the disparity in odds there.

 

[jikost]

Ryan Clarke

4

Ryan Clarke

Age

28

Ht

186cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.8

5star

K

9.1

4star

HB

9.7

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

2.2

4star

G

0.2

2star

D

18.5

4star

K

8.8

4star

HB

9.8

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.5

3star

G

0.3

3star

D

19.6

5star

K

7.0

3star

HB

12.6

5star

M

2.4

3star

T

2.2

4star

G

0.0

1star

AGS @ $2.65 365 - Another defensive forward role awaits Clarke this week on Jordan Dawson

12

Jordan Dawson

Age

28

Ht

190cm

Wt

91kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.0

4star

K

11.4

4star

HB

5.7

4star

M

4.8

5star

T

2.8

4star

CL

0.6

3star

D

15.7

4star

K

10.9

4star

HB

4.9

3star

M

2.9

3star

T

2.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

D

11.8

3star

K

7.8

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

5.0

5star

T

3.0

5star

CL

0.6

3star

. He's hit the scoreboard three weeks in a row now playing this role.

Luke Foley 2+ @ $21, 3+ @ $176 365

This is a 'heat-map' bet pure and simple. He didn't look threatening at all playing forward last week so good chance they move him back or just drop him, but at these odds I can't not have a few dollars on in case they stick with him up front again and the ball manages to bounce his way a couple of times.