AFL 2022 AFL Round 4

[Robo87]

- Fritsch 2+ goals - $1.74 - TopSport
1u - Fritsch 3+ goals - $3.15 - TopSport

tailed fritsch 2/3 @1.74/ 3.15 ts

A Small fritsch train is still better than no train. We'll Take what we can on nights like this.

 

[Del125763]

AFL stat Multiplier Spreads. Odds courtesy of PointsBet (who I think now are officially the number 1 betting website for AFL- and I dont work for PointsBet):

View attachment 1365142


Tips using $1 stakes for the match and some reasoning behind the tips:

Boak- UNDER 152 (going to back my gut like I did last week and say he doesnt score here)
Wines- OVER 120 ( i think he can score a goal in this game, did so against the Demons last year)
Butters- OVER 82 (focus will be more on Marshall and i sense he can snag a couple )
Amon- NO PLAY
Rozee- OVER 59 (similar reason to Butters)
Powell-Pepper- NO PLAY
Georgiades- NO PLAY
Houston- OVER 43 (can continue his good start to 2022)
Motlop- NO PLAY
Drew - NO PLAY
Marshall- NO PLAY
Mayes- NO PLAY
Lycett- OVER 22 ( can score a goal like he did last week )
Petracca- UNDER 250 ( he did achieve a score of 700+ twice last season, ironically one of those games was against the Power. But im going to back my gut and say he goes under here)
Oliver- NO PLAY
James Harmes- NO PLAY
Langdon- NO PLAY
Gawn- NO PLAY
Neal-Bullen - UNDER 46 ( the table suggests this line is a bit too high)
Viney- NO PLAY
Weideman- NO PLAY
Fritsch- OVER 43 (can snag his 2+ goals with the calibre of players around him)
McDonald-OVER 43 ( his performances last 2 years suggest can cover)
Jackson- OVER 43( similar to McDonald )
Pickett- OVER 35 ( coming back home to SA, he will be keen to put a show in front of his family)
Spargo- NO PLAY
Jordon- OVER 23 (cheap play for a low line)

Result of the Stat Multiplier of the tips using $1 stakes :

Boak- UNDER 152 (going to back my gut like I did last week and say he doesnt score here) = + $152
Wines- OVER 120 ( i think he can score a goal in this game, did so against the Demons last year)= -$120
Butters- OVER 82 (focus will be more on Marshall and i sense he can snag a couple ) =-$82
Amon- NO PLAY
Rozee- OVER 59 (similar reason to Butters)=-$59
Powell-Pepper- NO PLAY
Georgiades- NO PLAY
Houston- OVER 43 (can continue his good start to 2022) =+$37
Motlop- NO PLAY
Drew - NO PLAY
Marshall- NO PLAY
Mayes- NO PLAY
Lycett- OVER 22 ( can score a goal like he did last week )=-$22
Petracca- UNDER 250 ( he did achieve a score of 700+ twice last season, ironically one of those games was against the Power. But im going to back my gut and say he goes under here)=+$250
Oliver- NO PLAY
James Harmes- NO PLAY
Langdon- NO PLAY
Gawn- NO PLAY
Neal-Bullen - UNDER 46 ( the table suggests this line is a bit too high)=+$46
Viney- NO PLAY
Weideman- NO PLAY
Fritsch- OVER 43 (can snag his 2+ goals with the calibre of players around him)=+$17
McDonald-OVER 43 ( his performances last 2 years suggest can cover)=-$36
Jackson- OVER 43( similar to McDonald )=+$5
Pickett- OVER 35 ( coming back home to SA, he will be keen to put a show in front of his family)=-$35
Spargo- NO PLAY
Jordon- OVER 23 (cheap play for a low line)=-$23


Net Result: +$128

Hard game to make a profit from with not so many goals.

 

[GROTTO]

A Small fritsch train is still better than no train. We'll Take what we can on nights like this.

Fritsch ironically puts meat and potatoes on your table for tomorrow night.

At least you didnt go starving.

 

[Ohh Ok]

A Small fritsch train is still better than no train. We'll Take what we can on nights like this.

2.5u - 1st Qtr under 40.5 - $1.90 - TAB

2.5u - Brayshaw under 23.5 disposals - $1.82 - Ladbrokes

2u - Jackson AGS - $1.80 - 365

2u - Butters over 23.5 disposals - $1.90 - TopSport

2u - Fritsch 2+ goals - $1.74 - TopSport
1u - Fritsch 3+ goals - $3.15 - TopSport

I thought it was a good night! Trains aren't the only way to make $$

EDIT: Backed Melbourne at the second half line which tanked out in junk time

 

[_ASP3X]

Sportsbet refunded Ollie Wines goal scorer bets.

 

[Del125763]

I reckon the real winners of tonight are the bookies


Id imagine plenty of people would have had Wines disposals, Oliver disposals, and goalscorer bets in their multis.

 

[ShaunWDT]

I reckon the real winners of tonight are the bookies


Id imagine plenty of people would have had Wines disposals, Oliver disposals, and goalscorer bets in their multis.

Bookies always end up ahead on those sort of markets lol, for every person that wins probably 200 lose, they promote the shit out of same game multis for a reason its an absolute gold mine for them.

 

[jikost]

Tom Fullarton is a great price on pointsbet. In for big O and I'm guessing Darcy Fort

32

Darcy Fort

Age

32

Ht

204cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.6

2star

K

5.8

2star

HB

2.9

3star

CL

2.9

4star

HO

17.8

5star

D

9.2

2star

K

6.0

2star

HB

3.2

2star

CL

3.6

4star

HO

21.2

5star

D

7.6

2star

K

5.4

2star

HB

2.2

2star

CL

2.2

4star

HO

15.6

5star

ends up taking most of the ruck work anyway.

2+ @ $15 pb
3+ @ $67

 

[GROTTO]

Tom Fullarton is a great price on pointsbet. In for big O and I'm guessing Darcy Fort ends up taking most of the ruck work anyway.

2+ @ $15 pb
3+ @ $67

There is always another train the next day.......

 

[jikost]

There is always another train the next day.......

Fullarton is barely AFL standard...so in other words, the perfect train!

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Fullarton is barely AFL standard...so in other words, the perfect train!

I raise you Himmelberg kicking 5 last week

 

[kicksome]

Zach touhy named on the forward flank. Paying $13 on points bet for 2 goals.

 

[Del125763]

i Think tomorrows game is one to be wary of as well. The last 5 games between the 2 sides have been relatively low scoring. I actually think it could follow a similar pattern to tonights game.

Below are my tips for tomorrows PointsBet Stat Multiplier (Kicks x Handballs x Goals):



Here are my tips using $1 stake for tomorrow (and some reasons behind each):

Hawkins UNDER 111 (will be a low scoring game tomorrow and this might be a game where he doesnt get his usual number of handballs)
Duncan UNDER 79 (average suggests this is a few points too high)
Jeremy Cameron

5

Jeremy Cameron

Age

32

Ht

196cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.5

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

2.6

5star

D

10.0

3star

K

7.1

3star

HB

2.9

2star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.2

3star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.4

4star

G

2.0

5star

- OVER 86 (will snag his 3 goals or so as he is the best forward on the ground)
Parfitt UNDER 65 (line is double that what his average suggests)
Isaac Smith

7

Isaac Smith

Age

36

Ht

188cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

13.0

5star

HB

8.4

5star

M

5.5

5star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.7

4star

D

19.4

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

8.3

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.5

3star

CL

1.3

4star

D

19.2

5star

K

10.6

4star

HB

8.6

5star

M

7.6

5star

T

2.0

4star

CL

0.6

3star

NO PLAY
Brad Close NO PLAY
Cameron Guthrie

29

Cameron Guthrie

Age

33

Ht

187cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.7

4star

K

8.2

3star

HB

9.5

5star

M

3.1

3star

T

3.9

5star

CL

2.3

4star

D

18.7

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

9.0

4star

M

4.6

4star

T

3.6

4star

CL

3.3

4star

D

11.0

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

6.0

4star

M

1.2

2star

T

4.0

5star

CL

0.4

3star

NO PLAY
Stengle NO PLAY
Neale OVER 141 (can sneak a cheeky goal)
Bailey UNDER 87 (can see him getting 1 goal but not 2+)
McCluggage OVER 92 (Will get his opportunities , i think he will be good enough to convert- usually a shocking converter)
Daniher UNDER 74 (wont get as many handballs down in Geelong)
Zorko UNDER 69 (fitness is a bit questionable)
Lyons OVER 66 (his game style suits Kardinia Park perfectly)
McCarthy NO PLAY
Charlie Cameron

23

Charlie Cameron

Age

31

Ht

180cm

Wt

76kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.1

3star

K

8.4

3star

HB

3.7

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

3.2

5star

G

1.5

5star

D

9.6

2star

K

7.9

3star

HB

1.7

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.7

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

9.6

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

4.2

4star

M

1.4

2star

T

3.4

5star

G

1.2

4star

UNDER 53 (wont get as many handballs down in Geelong)




Wanted to have a go at the Lines on Dangerfield and Tuohy but PointsBet havent put them up for some weird reason.

 

[ShaunWDT]

Tom Fullarton is a great price on pointsbet. In for big O and I'm guessing Darcy Fort ends up taking most of the ruck work anyway.

2+ @ $15 pb
3+ @ $67

Guys a spud really but I dont totally hate it at those odds.

 

[Distinctive_]

Cockatoo against the old mob?

1+ $2.30
2+ $7
3+ $34

All Bet365

 

[Del125763]

TopSport Exact Goals market for Geelong v Brisbane Round 4:




A few plays for me:

Rayner Exactly 2 Goals @ $6
Dangerfield to Kick Exactly 2 Goals @ 4.80
McCarthy to kick Exactly 2 Goals @ 3.75


Same Game Multi: Rayner 2+ Goals, Dangerfield 2+ Goals, McCarthy 2+ Goals @ 38.96
Same Game Multi: Daniher 3+ Goals, Jeremy Cameron

5

Jeremy Cameron

Age

32

Ht

196cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.5

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

2.6

5star

D

10.0

3star

K

7.1

3star

HB

2.9

2star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.2

3star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.4

4star

G

2.0

5star

3+ Goals, Lyons 1+ Goal @ 22.20

 

[Distinctive_]

TopSport Exact Goals market for Geelong v Brisbane Round 4:

View attachment 1366198


A few plays for me:

Rayner Exactly 2 Goals @ $6
Dangerfield to Kick Exactly 2 Goals @ 4.80
McCarthy to kick Exactly 2 Goals @ 3.75


Same Game Multi: Rayner 2+ Goals, Dangerfield 2+ Goals, McCarthy 2+ Goals @ 38.96
Same Game Multi: Daniher 3+ Goals, Jeremy Cameron 3+ Goals, Lyons 1+ Goal @ 22.20

I appreciate the effort you've put into this NYRB but I have to say these 'exactly x goals' bets are low value and hard to hit

Can get Rayner 2+ @ $5.50 (SB)
And
Dangerfield 2+ @ $5.00 (PB) which is straight up a better bet

For example, what if Rayner kicks 3 goals? You would always rather take the '2+ goals' bet instead of the 'exactly 2 goals' bet for the greater intrinsic value and wider coverage that the former offers.

 

[Del125763]

I appreciate the effort you've put into this NYRB but I have to say these 'exactly x goals' bets are low value and hard to hit

Can get Rayner 2+ @ $5.50 (SB)
And
Dangerfield 2+ @ $5.00 (PB) which is straight up a better bet

For example, what if Rayner kicks 3 goals? You would rather take the 2+ bet instead of the 'exactly 2' bet for the greater intrinsic value and wider coverage.

yep your right there, i will look to take a bit of cover on those 2+ goals. Im kind of shooting myself in the foot if it goes over

 

[mouncey2franklin]

1u each Weideman 3+ 4+ 5+ ($5, $14, $38, ts)

Jackson 1u 2+ 0.5u each 3+ 4+ ($4.50, $15, $51, tab)

1u spread across Mayes goals and Mayes/Houston goal multis.

Port vs Mel final: -6u Total wipeout.

---

Now on to Geel vs Bris

Tuohy 1u each 2+ 3+ 4+ ($13, $67, pb; $226 sb)

Duncan 0.5u each 3+ 4+ ($23, $128, sb)

Fort 0.5u each 2+ 3+ ($12, $51, pb)

Multi 1u Tuohy Duncan Fort all AGS ($9.50 sb)

Multi 1u Tuohy Duncan Fort all 2+ ($701 sb)

Total outlay 7u

 

[ShaunWDT]

1u each Weideman 3+ 4+ 5+ ($5, $14, $38, ts)

Jackson 1u 2+ 0.5u each 3+ 4+ ($4.50, $15, $51, tab)

1u spread across Mayes goals and Mayes/Houston goal multis.

Port vs Mel final: -6u Total wipeout.

---

Now on to Geel vs Bris

Tuohy 1u each 2+ 3+ 4+ ($13, $67, pb; $226 sb)

Duncan 0.5u each 3+ 4+ ($23, $128, sb)

Fort 0.5u each 2+ 3+ ($12, $51, pb)

Multi 1u Tuohy Duncan Fort all AGS ($9.50 sb)

Multi 1u Tuohy Duncan Fort all 2+ ($701 sb)

Total outlay 7u

Expect Tuohy to stay down back, Duncan is the one I like, spending a fair bit of time forward these days and hardly misses when he gets an opportunity.

 

[GROTTO]

Expect Tuohy to stay down back, Duncan is the one I like, spending a fair bit of time forward these days and hardly misses when he gets an opportunity.

Tuohy does enjoy floating and attacking forward at times. Definitely worth AGS, train wise Im not so sure.

 

[kicksome]

Duncan is the one I like

Was just wondering since Selwood is out Duncan might spend more time in the mid

 

[The_Steadier]

Ollie Wines subbed out

SB kindly voided bets on him.

They really are decent fellows for the 5% of the time they aren't being complete and utter scumbags.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Was just wondering since Selwood is out Duncan might spend more time in the mid

He planning on not running around like a headless chook this week?

 

[kicksome]

He planning on not running around like a headless chook this week?

haha no guarantees on that one