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AFL 2022 AFL Round 4

Line Winners?

  • Total voters
    24
  • Poll closed .

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rwandandream said:
Some TAB bets for you all:

Jordan Clark 20+ @ 3.00
Lachlan Murphy AGS @ 2.30
Lachlan Murphy 2+ @ 8.50
Lachlan Murphy 3+ @ 25.00
Lachlan Murphy 4+ @ 51.00
Jake Stringer 20+ @ 7.00
Jake Stringer 25+ @ 26.00
Jye Caldwell 20+ @ 2.60
Jye Caldwell 25+ @ 9.00
Thomson Dow 20+ @ 4.50
Thomson Dow 25+ @ 26.00
Jack Ross 20+ @ 3.50
Jack Ross 25+ @ 26.00
Jack Lukosius AGS @ 1.95
Joel Amartey AGS @ 2.05
Wil Powell 20+ @ 4.50
Wil Powell 25+ @ 26.00
Jeremy Sharp 20+ @ 3.75
Jeremy Sharp 25+ @ 19.00
Click to expand...
This is an armed robbery. WP
 
mouncey2franklin said:
Why no North?

You could boost that $19 to closer to $200 by adding in the Noble Kangaroos.

46e648b2ed4767732880581fad94d800
Click to expand...
Haha $19 with a chance is better than $200 with no hope
 
Chad Warner for 25+ at $5.5 TAB
Was $7 while I started typing. He had 25 in rd1 and 20 rd2 against a bulldogs side that restricted their run. This week gets the Kangas who allow disposals for fun. Is $2.55 at Ladbrokes and will be the same at TAB before the night is out.
GL 🤞
 

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rwandandream said:
Some TAB bets for you all:

Jordan Clark 20+ @ 3.00
Lachlan Murphy AGS @ 2.30
Lachlan Murphy 2+ @ 8.50
Lachlan Murphy 3+ @ 25.00
Lachlan Murphy 4+ @ 51.00
Jake Stringer 20+ @ 7.00
Jake Stringer 25+ @ 26.00
Jye Caldwell 20+ @ 2.60
Jye Caldwell 25+ @ 9.00
Thomson Dow 20+ @ 4.50
Thomson Dow 25+ @ 26.00
Jack Ross 20+ @ 3.50
Jack Ross 25+ @ 26.00
Jack Lukosius AGS @ 1.95
Joel Amartey AGS @ 2.05
Wil Powell 20+ @ 4.50
Wil Powell 25+ @ 26.00
Jeremy Sharp 20+ @ 3.75
Jeremy Sharp 25+ @ 19.00
Click to expand...

Lachlan Keeffe AGS @ 2.75 (played forward on the weekend. 1.57 Sportsbet which is too short but still...)

Shai Bolton 20+ @ 3.25
Shai Bolton 25+ @ 13.00
Shai Bolton 30+ @ 21.00 (Somewhat speculative but has 59% and 63% CBAs last two weeks. Was easily hitting 20+ last season when playing midfield)

Jason Horne-Francis AGS @ 3.25 (Sportsbet 1.91. True price probably somewhere in between 1.91 and 3.25)

For those interested in goal trains:
Sam Wicks 2+, 3+, 4+, 5+ @ 6.00, 26.00, 51.00, 81.00 (will have more chances than usual given the opponent)
 
Last edited:
kicksome said:
Going back on the cognilio train this week. Kicked 0.3 last week and should still be forward line with green still out
2+ $5.50
3+ $21 @SB
Click to expand...

I like this bet.

1u 2+ ($5.50) 0.5u 3+ ($21), 0.5u 4+ ($118 boosted)

Only problem is it means I'm going to be watching another Fremantle match, played at Perth stadium no less 🤢

I like Freo the club, a lot of the players on the team, and Perth stadium looks good.

But fmd they put on some unwatchable tripe. If they do it again I'm done with them for the season, no jokes.
 
Getting on the Sydney trains early in case Buddy is out and it leads to other goalkicker odds coming in.

Heeney 0.5u each 4+ 5+ ($4, $8.50)

Hayward 0.5u each 4+ 5+ ($9, $23)

Gulden 0.5u 3+, 0.3u 4+, 0.2u 5+ ($8, $26, $101)

Parker 0.3u 3+, 0.3u 4+, 0.2u 5+ ($10, $36, $101)

Florent 0.5u 3+, 0.3u 4+, 0.2u 5+ ($19, $87, $301)

Wicks 0.5u 3+, 0.3u 4+, 0.2u 5+ ($17, $84, $326)

Also still like Ford for goals. He is too talented to ignore at these odds.

0.5u 2+, 0.3u 3+, 0.2u 4+ ($9.50, $51, $327)

Multi 0.1u Ford 3+ Taylor 3+ ($1801)

Total outlay: 7u

EDIT Ford and Wicks out.

Adding

Mahony 0.5u each 2+ 3+ ($12, $51)

Mills 0.5u each 2+ 3+ ($15, $67)

Ronke 0.5u each 3+ 4+ ($15, $83, sb)

And another

Heeney 1u each 4+ 5+ ($5, $12, pb)

Hayward 0.5u each Hayward 4+ 5+ ($17, $51, pb)

Florent 0.5u each Florent 3+ 4+ ($17, $67, pb)

Total outlay: 12u
 
Last edited:
mouncey2franklin said:
Getting on the Sydney trains early in case Buddy is out and it leads to other goalkicker odds coming in.

Heeney 0.5u each 4+ 5+ ($4, $8.50)

Hayward 0.5u each 4+ 5+ ($9, $23)

Gulden 0.5u 3+, 0.3u 4+, 0.2u 5+ ($8, $26, $101)

Parker 0.3u 3+, 0.3u 4+, 0.2u 5+ ($10, $36, $101)

Florent 0.5u 3+, 0.3u 4+, 0.2u 5+ ($19, $87, $301)

Wicks 0.5u 3+, 0.3u 4+, 0.2u 5+ ($17, $84, $326)

Also still like Ford for goals. He is too talented to ignore at these odds.

0.5u 2+, 0.3u 3+, 0.2u 4+ ($9.50, $51, $327)

Multi 0.1u Ford 3+ Taylor 3+ ($1801)

Total outlay: 7u
Click to expand...

Do you like Horny Francis 2+ @15 and Stephenson 2+@11 at Tab?
 
Atavistic said:
Do you like Horny Francis 2+ @15 and Stephenson 2+@11 at Tab?
Click to expand...

Those two led North for sprint efforts and repeat sprint efforts on the weekend.

I don't have their heat maps but I'm guessing they are the only two who were pushing back to help defence.

They're both good enough in front of goals to have days out so I would not try to talk somebody out of the bets.

But I won't be tailing this time, because I've already bought too many tickets for this match.
 

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Luke Parker 5+ into Sydney win and powered = 151-1.

I'm assuming Sydney win if Parker kicks five.
 
3u - Charlie Cameron 2+ goals - $1.85 - TAB
1u - Charlie Cameron 3+ goals - $3.50 - TAB
0.5u - Charlie Cameron 4+ goals - $8 - TAB
0.5u - Charlie Cameron 5+ goals - $21 - TAB
My pick of the forwards for this one. Think the cats don’t have a great match up for him. Has a strong history vs the Cats. Kicked 2+ in 17/24 games last season and 2/2 this season. After kicking 5.8 so far this season he’s on the verge of a big game.

2u - Dangerfield 25+ disposals - $1.80 - TAB
2/3 this year and should be spending a chunk of time in the midfield for the cats.

2.5u - Greenwood 20+ disposals - $1.75 - TAB
19, 29, 19 this season. Second most CBAs behind Simpkin this season. After an embarrassment on the weekend expect to see a response from North and the big man to lead some of the charge.

5u - Mills 25+ disposals - $1.80 - TAB
14/17 last year. Off game on the weekend. Role is a massive positive and is their premier midfielder now. Soft match up. Line has been up and at 27.5+ this season.

2.5u - Warner 20+ disposals - $1.85 - TAB
Passes the eye test, appears to be everywhere. Third most CBAs of any Swan behind Parker and Mills over the last two weeks. 2/2 on this one this season.

1u - Langdon AGS - $2.90 - TAB
0.5u - Langdon 2+ goals - $13 - TAB
Has kicked goals in 1/2 games this season. Big odds for someone playing inside the forward 50. 3 of his 8 disposals on the weekend were inside the 50. Hasn’t been a massive goal kicker at West Coast but went 15/21 in his debut season at the Giants. Odds too big to pass up IMO.

2.5u - Walters AGS - $1.70 - TAB
Rarely goes goalless. Good value at this price.

2.5u - Lachie Ash 15+ disposals - $1.95 - TAB
Backed last week for a collect, thrown back up again at a bigger price? Was used in a tagging role on the weekend which means he spends plenty of time around the footy, could see him used in a similar role again. 2/3 this year, 16/21 last year.

2.5u - Graham 20+ disposals - $1.85 - TAB
No Prestia or Dusty means improved mid opportunities. 2/2 without either of them this season.

5u - Caldwell 20+ disposals - $2.15 - TAB
Thought over 22.5 was a solid bet on the weekend, now getting plus money for 3 disposals less! Yes please! Bombers desperate for a win, so expect to see his A game.
 
Morning All,

First post for the year so lets make it a big one. Tab were tight as on disposal markets last week and looks like they have overcorrected on a stack of games. I see a few posters already mentioned some of these at bigger prices. Here is what I have backed and why:

J.Caldwell 20,25,30 $1.75/$4.00/$23 He's gone 20, 23, 16 this year and gets more mid-time with no Zerrett. Crows at Marvel will mean plenty of disposals. Ladbrokes have him $1.26/$2.05 for 20,25.

J.Scrimshaw 20,25,30 $2.75/$11/$29 Insane price, gone 21, 22 and 3 this year when injured. Went 12/22 (20), 6/22 (25), 1/22 (30) last year. Lads are $1.46/$2.70 for 20,25

M.Rowell 20,25,30 $1.60/$3.00/$7.50 Again, silly overs. Gone 33, 18, 19 are Carlton won't tag at all. Lads are $1.12, $1.58, $2.85 for 20,25,30

J.Polec 20,25 $3.10/$13.00 This is a bit more speculative. Lads are $1.62 for 20

L.McDonald 20,25,30 $2.00/$5.50/$26 He's gone 20,27,10 this year. Likes to pig it up down back with Hall. Lads are $1.32/$2.20 for 20,25

L.O'Brien 25+ $13 Hit 25 in round 2
O.Florent 25+ $13 Hit 25 in 3 of 23 games last year
P.Lipinski 30+ $8.50 30,24,23 this year. Playing out of sorts West Coast so should rack it up
B.Parfitt 30+ $15 Hit 32 in round 1 and should be a chance to go again at Cattery

Good luck if you are having a crack.
 
Trent Rivers 20+ @$3.75 TAB
Had 18 and 20 to start the season and come up against a Port Adelaide team that look dreadful. Will start $1.7 at least 🤞
The 25+ at $19s is also way overs - should be $5/$6
 
Geeves Train said:
Morning All,

First post for the year so lets make it a big one. Tab were tight as on disposal markets last week and looks like they have overcorrected on a stack of games. I see a few posters already mentioned some of these at bigger prices. Here is what I have backed and why:

J.Caldwell 20,25,30 $1.75/$4.00/$23 He's gone 20, 23, 16 this year and gets more mid-time with no Zerrett. Crows at Marvel will mean plenty of disposals. Ladbrokes have him $1.26/$2.05 for 20,25.

J.Scrimshaw 20,25,30 $2.75/$11/$29 Insane price, gone 21, 22 and 3 this year when injured. Went 12/22 (20), 6/22 (25), 1/22 (30) last year. Lads are $1.46/$2.70 for 20,25

M.Rowell 20,25,30 $1.60/$3.00/$7.50 Again, silly overs. Gone 33, 18, 19 are Carlton won't tag at all. Lads are $1.12, $1.58, $2.85 for 20,25,30

J.Polec 20,25 $3.10/$13.00 This is a bit more speculative. Lads are $1.62 for 20

L.McDonald 20,25,30 $2.00/$5.50/$26 He's gone 20,27,10 this year. Likes to pig it up down back with Hall. Lads are $1.32/$2.20 for 20,25

L.O'Brien 25+ $13 Hit 25 in round 2
O.Florent 25+ $13 Hit 25 in 3 of 23 games last year
P.Lipinski 30+ $8.50 30,24,23 this year. Playing out of sorts West Coast so should rack it up
B.Parfitt 30+ $15 Hit 32 in round 1 and should be a chance to go again at Cattery

Good luck if you are having a crack.
Click to expand...
Don’t know if Scrimshaw plays anyway, left the field early with a shoulder injury against Carlton.
 

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Ohh Ok said:
3u - Charlie Cameron 2+ goals - $1.85 - TAB
1u - Charlie Cameron 3+ goals - $3.50 - TAB
0.5u - Charlie Cameron 4+ goals - $8 - TAB
0.5u - Charlie Cameron 5+ goals - $21 - TAB
My pick of the forwards for this one. Think the cats don’t have a great match up for him. Has a strong history vs the Cats. Kicked 2+ in 17/24 games last season and 2/2 this season. After kicking 5.8 so far this season he’s on the verge of a big game.

2u - Dangerfield 25+ disposals - $1.80 - TAB
2/3 this year and should be spending a chunk of time in the midfield for the cats.

2.5u - Greenwood 20+ disposals - $1.75 - TAB
19, 29, 19 this season. Second most CBAs behind Simpkin this season. After an embarrassment on the weekend expect to see a response from North and the big man to lead some of the charge.

5u - Mills 25+ disposals - $1.80 - TAB
14/17 last year. Off game on the weekend. Role is a massive positive and is their premier midfielder now. Soft match up. Line has been up and at 27.5+ this season.

2.5u - Warner 20+ disposals - $1.85 - TAB
Passes the eye test, appears to be everywhere. Third most CBAs of any Swan behind Parker and Mills over the last two weeks. 2/2 on this one this season.

1u - Langdon AGS - $2.90 - TAB
0.5u - Langdon 2+ goals - $13 - TAB
Has kicked goals in 1/2 games this season. Big odds for someone playing inside the forward 50. 3 of his 8 disposals on the weekend were inside the 50. Hasn’t been a massive goal kicker at West Coast but went 15/21 in his debut season at the Giants. Odds too big to pass up IMO.

2.5u - Walters AGS - $1.70 - TAB
Rarely goes goalless. Good value at this price.

2.5u - Lachie Ash 15+ disposals - $1.95 - TAB
Backed last week for a collect, thrown back up again at a bigger price? Was used in a tagging role on the weekend which means he spends plenty of time around the footy, could see him used in a similar role again. 2/3 this year, 16/21 last year.

2.5u - Graham 20+ disposals - $1.85 - TAB
No Prestia or Dusty means improved mid opportunities. 2/2 without either of them this season.

5u - Caldwell 20+ disposals - $2.15 - TAB
Thought over 22.5 was a solid bet on the weekend, now getting plus money for 3 disposals less! Yes please! Bombers desperate for a win, so expect to see his A game.
Click to expand...
How’s Cameron gone in the past at the Cattery?
 
Zak Butters is still somehow $6 for 30+ @TAB. This is a bet all the way down to $4s imo.
 
Nick Blakey 25+ @$5.5 TAB
has gone 22 rd1, 22 rd2 and 25 rd3. Comes up against North who get slaughtered all over the park and give up a heap of the footy. This should genuinely be about $2.1 🙏
 
Interesting to note quite a bit of a line difference on Total Match Points between Sydney v North Melbourne, at the time of writing this:

Sportsbet:

Under 160.5 pts $1.88 v $1.88 Over 160.5 pts


PointsBet:

Under 156.5 pts $1.90 v $1.90 Over 156.5 pts

PointsBet Spread:
UNDER 154 v OVER 160

(PointsBet spread is a difference of 6 points)
 
I dont bet the spreads on Total Match Points but the limit is 80x your stake.

For the Swans v Roos:

eg the worst you could lose is $80 (using $1 stakes) if it lands on 74 points as a total match score combined.

And the most you could win is $80 (using $1 stakes) if it lands on 240 points as a total match score combined.
 

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AFL 2022 AFL Round 4

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