AFL 2022 AFL Round 4

[BloodRet]

Fritsch 2

Hawkins 2
C Cameron 2

Franklin 2
Hayward

Elliot
Mihocek
Kennedy
Ryan

Hogan 2

Reiwoldt 2

Wright 2

King 2
Bruest
Gunston

Mckay 2

@141

 

[BloodRet]

Don’t mind cockatoos odds for someone who spent 80% forward @$6, 23, 101 multiples

Mcstay seems reasonable too @3.10, 8.50, 26

 

[kicksome]

Fritsch 2

Hawkins 2
C Cameron 2

Franklin 2
Hayward

Elliot
Mihocek
Kennedy
Ryan

Hogan 2

Reiwoldt 2

Wright 2

King 2
Bruest
Gunston

Mckay 2

@141

I was bored So i tried one for myself:

Christian Petracca
Kysaiah Pickett
Luke Jackson
Mitch Georgiades
Bayley Fritsch 2+

Lincoln McCarthy
Charlie Cameron

Will Hayward
Hayden McLean
Errol Gulden

$20.38 @ SB

 

[Ohh Ok]

How’s Cameron gone in the past at the Cattery?

3.3, 2.1, 5.2*, 1.2*, 5.2 as a Lion vs the cats

*Shortened quarters

Only game there was round 2 last year (2.1).

Also worth noting that the Cats are currently the team that has the highest match total on average (points for + points against), so hopefully the flood gates are open.

 

[Johanpetro]

Tab disposals definately more generous round 4.

I think they might pull some of these and re-open at similar prices to Ladbrokes/Sportsbet.

I hope the ones giving out these tips here are the ones crunching the odds, not some snipers sitting in this thread.

 

[Del125763]

BetDeluxe doing their 4 game promo this week (up to $100 bonus for a 4 leg same game multi for odds greater than $4):

Power v Dees
Geelong v Brisbane Bears
Freo v Giants
Richmond v Bulldogs

 

[kicksome]

also having a go at
Darcy Fort. has kicked 2.0, 0, 1.0 so far this year. Has kicked 2 a few times in his career and even 3 once. Has had plenty of experience at GMHBA stadium and will have a point to prove.

1+ $2.40 1u
2+ $9 1u

hopefully he kicks one and anything is a bonus after that

 

[iluvparis]

BetDeluxe doing their 4 game promo this week (up to $100 bonus for a 4 leg same game multi for odds greater than $4):

Power v Dees
Geelong v Brisbane Bears
Freo v Giants
Richmond v Bulldogs

0 and 13 now after last round

#due

 

[GROTTO]

I hope the ones giving out these tips here are the ones crunching the odds, not some snipers sitting in this thread.

Here I thought no one could see me.

 

[Johanpetro]

also having a go at
Darcy Fort. has kicked 2.0, 0, 1.0 so far this year. Has kicked 2 a few times in his career and even 3 once. Has had plenty of experience at GMHBA stadium and will have a point to prove.

1+ $2.40 1u
2+ $9 1u

hopefully he kicks one and anything is a bonus after that

Might be playing one out in ruck with Big O out

 

[X_box_X]

I'm amazed how slow TAB are this week to update their disposals odds. There is still some outstanding value around.

Yesterday
C Guthrie o29.5 disposals at $4.75 w TAB
C Guthrie o24.5 disposals at $2 w TAB

Today
$4.75 and $1.75.
This is for a guy who last year had o/u lines consistently set at around 27.5.
17/23 over 24.5 and 10/23 over 29.5. These high odds are an overreaction to his modest start to the season.

Yesterday
P Dangerfield o29.5 disposals at $4.50 w TAB
P Dangerfield o24.5 disposals at $1.95 w TAB

Today
$4 and $1.70.
Odds haven't moved much at all. His line last week was 26.5 - 27.5 depending on the book. I'd expect a similar line this week.

Yesterday
D Rioli o19.5 disposals at $2.90 w TAB

Today
$2.90... Odds haven't changed. 13, 21 and 20 to start the season. His last six games last year produced totals of 19, 19, 20, 24, 22, 19. That's five of his last nine clearing this total. Bulldogs concede disposals to rebounding defenders (possibly attributed to poor goal kicking and a shit load of behinds) but I'd fully expect this price won't last.

Yesterday
J Graham o19.5 disposals at $1.85 w TAB

Today
$1.75... These odds are probably closer to what they should be... His line last week was 21.5 and he cleared that without any problem. Totals of 13, 22, 25 to begin the season. I'd say these odds are +EV as long as Dusty, Prestia and Lambert are MIA.

Yesterday
J Dunkley o29.5 disposals at $3.25 w TAB
J Dunkley o24.5 disposals at $1.65 w TAB

Today
$3 and $1.65... This one looks great on the back of Dunks returning to his very best form. Totals of 29, 26 and 31 to begin the season. Before getting injured last season, he began the season in similar fashion with totals of 30, 25, 33, 27, 38, 29 (game when he was injured). YES PLEASE!!! FWIW, in round two BF had his line at 29.5 and TS had it at 27.5... There was plenty of money for the overs on TS to suggest the line should have been 28.5. Perhaps we'll see a similar line this week given his big game last round.

Yesterday
P Lipinski o24.5 disposals at $2.90 w TAB

Today
$2.70...
+EV bet. Totals of 30, 24, 23 to begin the season. Perhaps more opportunity presents itself this week with JDG out. His lines on Saturday were 23.5 w TS and 24.5 w Neds. Weak opponent in WCE. I believe these odds should be closer to $2.

Yesterday
I Heeney o24.5 disposals at $4 w TAB
I Heeney o19.5 disposals at $1.75 w TAB

Today
$3.30 and $1.55. I'm not sure if there will be much more movement but I still think these are potentially good prices given the weak opponent (Norf). Perhaps this is a wait and see as to whether Buddy is named which could determine if Heeney spends more time in the midfield or forward line. The risk is the odds may shorten further and you could miss an opportunity if Buddy is named.

Of the bets I placed yesterday, the only two that have had significant movement and no longer worth taking are:

Yesterday
C Mills o29.5 disposals at $4.25 w TAB
C Mills o24.5 disposals at $1.95 w TAB

Today
$2.10 and $1.30

Yesterday
M Rowell o19.5 disposals at $1.70 w TAB
M Rowell o24.5 disposals at $3.50 w TAB

Today
$1.15 and $1.70


Of the bets that haven't changed much in odds, my favourite one is definitely Dunkley. $1.65 for 25+ seems like an absolute monty. The only reason why I can think these odds are available is the odds setters have taken his stats into account from last year when he returned from injury and he was no where near fully fit.

 

[The Brownlow Guru]

Mason Wood

32

Mason Wood

Age

32

Ht

192cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.2

3star

K

7.8

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.2

4star

CL

0.3

2star

D

8.3

2star

K

2.7

1star

HB

5.7

3star

M

1.7

2star

T

1.3

2star

CL

0.0

1star

D

15.8

4star

K

8.6

4star

HB

7.2

5star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.6

3star

20+ @ $5.00 looks big also. 23 on the weekend.

 

[kicksome]

Might be playing one out in ruck with Big O out

dammit i overlooked the fact that he was out

 

[BloodRet]

Mason Wood 20+ @ $5.00 looks big also. 23 on the weekend.

Good value I’d take that if my account wasn’t frozen

 

[X_box_X]

Good value I’d take that if my account wasn’t frozen

Frozen hey? Have you spoken to Austin Powers about this? Perhaps he can provide some insight into the unfreezing process so you can resume betting again.

 

[Atavistic]

Good value I’d take that if my account wasn’t frozen

You won too much money?

 

[Geead]

Mason Wood 20+ @ $5.00 looks big also. 23 on the weekend.

I thought this said Mason Cox at first and was thinking I wouldn't take that at 100/1 lol

But yeah that does seem decent value

 

[kicksome]

Pointsbet have the Geelong Brisbane game bet " both teams to score 2+ goals each quarter" - $4
Geelong has done this every quarter this year, and Brisbane has done it bar 1. The first quarter against Essendon where they kicked 1.1
At the price of $4 I'll have a go

 

[BloodRet]

You won too much money?

Haha I wish think it’s something small like ID verification

 

[Ohh Ok]

I hope the ones giving out these tips here are the ones crunching the odds, not some snipers sitting in this thread.

Rule number one when sharing tips; always get your own bet on first

 

[Ohh Ok]

Mason Wood 20+ @ $5.00 looks big also. 23 on the weekend.

Anomaly, or sign of things to come? 10 20+ games in his 77 game career

 

[Nuggetz]

I'm amazed how slow TAB are this week to update their disposals odds. There is still some outstanding value around.

Yesterday
C Guthrie o29.5 disposals at $4.75 w TAB
C Guthrie o24.5 disposals at $2 w TAB

Today
$4.75 and $1.75.
This is for a guy who last year had o/u lines consistently set at around 27.5.
17/23 over 24.5 and 10/23 over 29.5. These high odds are an overreaction to his modest start to the season.

Yesterday
P Dangerfield o29.5 disposals at $4.50 w TAB
P Dangerfield o24.5 disposals at $1.95 w TAB

Today
$4 and $1.70.
Odds haven't moved much at all. His line last week was 26.5 - 27.5 depending on the book. I'd expect a similar line this week.

Yesterday
D Rioli o19.5 disposals at $2.90 w TAB

Today
$2.90... Odds haven't changed. 13, 21 and 20 to start the season. His last six games last year produced totals of 19, 19, 20, 24, 22, 19. That's five of his last nine clearing this total. Bulldogs concede disposals to rebounding defenders (possibly attributed to poor goal kicking and a shit load of behinds) but I'd fully expect this price won't last.

Yesterday
J Graham o19.5 disposals at $1.85 w TAB

Today
$1.75... These odds are probably closer to what they should be... His line last week was 21.5 and he cleared that without any problem. Totals of 13, 22, 25 to begin the season. I'd say these odds are +EV as long as Dusty, Prestia and Lambert are MIA.

Yesterday
J Dunkley o29.5 disposals at $3.25 w TAB
J Dunkley o24.5 disposals at $1.65 w TAB

Today
$3 and $1.65... This one looks great on the back of Dunks returning to his very best form. Totals of 29, 26 and 31 to begin the season. Before getting injured last season, he began the season in similar fashion with totals of 30, 25, 33, 27, 38, 29 (game when he was injured). YES PLEASE!!! FWIW, in round two BF had his line at 29.5 and TS had it at 27.5... There was plenty of money for the overs on TS to suggest the line should have been 28.5. Perhaps we'll see a similar line this week given his big game last round.

Yesterday
P Lipinski o24.5 disposals at $2.90 w TAB

Today
$2.70...
+EV bet. Totals of 30, 24, 23 to begin the season. Perhaps more opportunity presents itself this week with JDG out. His lines on Saturday were 23.5 w TS and 24.5 w Neds. Weak opponent in WCE. I believe these odds should be closer to $2.

Yesterday
I Heeney o24.5 disposals at $4 w TAB
I Heeney o19.5 disposals at $1.75 w TAB

Today
$3.30 and $1.55. I'm not sure if there will be much more movement but I still think these are potentially good prices given the weak opponent (Norf). Perhaps this is a wait and see as to whether Buddy is named which could determine if Heeney spends more time in the midfield or forward line. The risk is the odds may shorten further and you could miss an opportunity if Buddy is named.

Of the bets I placed yesterday, the only two that have had significant movement and no longer worth taking are:

Yesterday
C Mills o29.5 disposals at $4.25 w TAB
C Mills o24.5 disposals at $1.95 w TAB

Today
$2.10 and $1.30

Yesterday
M Rowell o19.5 disposals at $1.70 w TAB
M Rowell o24.5 disposals at $3.50 w TAB

Today
$1.15 and $1.70


Of the bets that haven't changed much in odds, my favourite one is definitely Dunkley. $1.65 for 25+ seems like an absolute monty. The only reason why I can think these odds are available is the odds setters have taken his stats into account from last year when he returned from injury and he was no where near fully fit.

Bolton and Lipinski overs @7 and including M.Wood @35

 

[benji21]

With TAB, make sure you try walk in if you can. They don't really pay attention to the machines for normally around up to 250-500 dollars to win.

 

[The Brownlow Guru]

Anomaly, or sign of things to come? 10 20+ games in his 77 game career

Heat map would suggest he played on the wing for his 23 disposals. So potentially a sign of things to come - having played forward most of his career.

With King, Marshall, Membrey and Ryder all playing guessing he is getting up the ground and loose. I haven't seen the game to be fair haha.

 

[Ohh Ok]

Heat map would suggest he played on the wing for his 23 disposals. So potentially a sign of things to come - having played forward most of his career.

With King, Marshall, Membrey and Ryder all playing guessing he is getting up the ground and loose. I haven't seen the game to be fair haha.

Yeh looked a bit that way. His goal off one step was a monster. Unfortunately 12 of his 23 came in the last quarter which makes it a tricky read.