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AFL 2022 AFL Round 9

Line Winners?

  • Total voters
    15
  • Poll closed .

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Johanpetro said:
Don’t know anything about him. Hawks have a pretty stacked forward line, will he play forward? Any Hawks fans can chime in?
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I would expect him to be played forward (probs not too deep forward though), only worry would be Time on Ground % with Kozi + Moore on the bench + Richmond probs smashing us (they are starting to look more at full strength)
 
Todd Goldstein 150+ supercoach @$19s - TAB
Since becoming no.1 ruck again he is thriving in terms of SC points. Clocked up 142 last week against Darcy who was still dominant. 125 the week before solid as well. Comes up against young Hayes from Port Adelaide and am expecting North to really crack in after the week they’ve had. Imo should be $7s/$8s. Obviously the 125+ a great bet also @$4.5 given he’s cleared it last 2 weeks!
 

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Crock Hunter said:
Todd Goldstein 150+ supercoach @$19s - TAB
Since becoming no.1 ruck again he is thriving in terms of SC points. Clocked up 142 last week against Darcy who was still dominant. 125 the week before solid as well. Comes up against young Hayes from Port Adelaide and am expecting North to really crack in after the week they’ve had. Imo should be $7s/$8s. Obviously the 125+ a great bet also @$4.5 given he’s cleared it last 2 weeks!
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I’ll have a stab at him @19s for 150. Why not
 
AFL Fantasy Coach

Patrick Lipinski averages 81.63 with the Pies in 2022

When with the Bulldogs in 2020-21 he averaged 67.33 (factoring into account the shorter quarters - adjusted by adding 20%).

Current Line at PointsBet for AFL Fantasy

Under 81.5 $1.87 v $1.87 Over 81.5

I reckon he goes over there- with a point to prove against his old side.
 
Don't mind Aaron Francis for multiples. Apart from Wright who else are they going to kick it to?

2+ @ $5.2 TS
3+ @ $18
4+ @ $65
 

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mouncey2franklin said:
On the Saints board they are saying that Long trained with the forwards this week, Hill trained with the defenders.

$13 for 2+ and $67 for 3+ (both pb) may be worth a look.
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Bloke is a worse shot on goal than Banfield but gotta be in it to win it
 
Magpies have improved their Net Contested Disposals in 2022 but the inclusion of Bont I think makes it a 50:50 game.

2021 Net Contested Disposals Rank:

Bulldogs +7.7 (rank 4th) v -5.8 (ranked 11th) Collingwood


2022 Net Contested Disposal Rank:

Bulldogs +0.6 (rank 8th) v -1.4 (ranked 11th) Collingwood

Last years the Pies lost this area in contested disposals 131-156. Think that will have a large part to play in how the game pans out. One area Collingwood may have strength is in the rucks. Got to remember there is no: Grundy, English, Mason Cox and Stefan Martin from last years encounter. I think Darcy Cameron will be a bit too good for the 5 gamer , Jordon Sweet. Collingwood have the backup ruck in Begg- who I have never seen play before.

I also noticed not many of the betting companies offering odds for AFL Fantasy for Darcy Cameron, as he could post another 110+, 120+ score tonight.

Movements of both Cameron and Begg last week:

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Ohh Ok said:
It appears that I posted this in the wrong round thread, most prices are gone though I believe now. Think Farrar might still be there. Would be wroth checking out the prices SB put up today if any of these interest you.

Feeling a bit flat after getting pumped on the weekend. Had a good Sunday so was nice to finish on a positive. Not as much early value around and have ended up taking a few scary picks by backing players that have been a let down recently.

2u - De Goey 25+ disposals - $2.55 - 365
Been burnt by him last couple weeks, was sick vs GC and may still have had some lingering effects on the weekend as he faded out in the fourth quarter only managing 2 disposals . Backing him to bounce back. Still big CBA numbers and should be getting this soon.

2u - Bontempelli 25+ disposals - $3 - 365
Wouldn’t be often you see the Bont at this sort of offer. Has had a slow season only clearing in 1/6, but you’d think the rest on the weekend would’ve done him the world of good. A bunch of calvary expected back for the Dogs this week which puts him in good stead to have a run in the guts. Only need to look back to last year where he went 20/26 to see how capable he was at clearing this line.

2.5u - Liam Baker 20+ disposals - $2.25 - 365
Had a very quiet first half game on the weekend only collecting 2 disposals in the first half. Has been successful in this position in the past. Good match up against Hawthorn who consistently give up 20+ to opposition defenders; Redman, Heppell, Hind, Cutler on the weekend, Brayshaw, Bowey, May the week prior and so on.

2.5u - Duncan 25+ disposals - $2.20 - 365
1u - Duncan 30+ disposals - $5.50 - 365
Geelong went back to the high possession game style on the weekend which worked effectively against the Giants. This was evidenced by them amassing 435 disposals (298 uncontested) compared to their rounds 1-7 average of 367 (222 uncontested). Duncan looked to be one of the main beneficiaries of this change amassing a game high 33 disposals. An absolute ball magnet on his day. As St Kilda love to move the ball with speed, I’m expecting Geelong to go back to this same game style to choke the Saints and upset their rhythm.

1.5u - Farrar 15+ disposals - $2.60 - TAB
Just playing the percentages on this one. Has hit in 8/13 games since 2021. +EV bet if he continues on the same trend line.

3u - Jackson 15+ disposals - $1.85 - 365
1.5u - Jackson 20+ disposals - $8.50 - 365
0.5u - Jackson 25+ disposals - $25 - 365
Calling a Max Gawn rest here! Gawn went for knee scans during the week and is currently touch and go whether he plays this week. This to me presents as a perfect opportunity to rest Gawn. This means Jackson full time in the ruck against a weak opponent. Fantastic opportunity for him to go big.
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Jy Farrer is into $2.25 at TAB to get 15+ disposals only $1.58 on sportsbet
Still good value as starting to string some games together and get used to AFL level
Has done it 2/3 games
 

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PointsBet Stat Multiplier Spreads for Collingwood v Western Bulldogs. To be honest it looks like they have nailed their lines this week. I cant be tempted to take any OVERS.

1652370248819.png


Most of the averages are higher than their OVERS line. I do like the one play however on Darcy Cameron. Can See De Goey and/or Bont combining for 4+ Goals though. But these players can be volatile in terms of time spent in forward and midfield.

Bulldogs players have a higher ceiling whilst Collingwood players based on the way they played in 2021 were quite slow, which probably pushed those averages down a fair bit.


So Ill stick with the one play for that match.

OVERS 35 Darcy Cameron
 
ok heres a few that im having a go at for tonights game. Surely this week has to go better than last week yeah?? guess it cant go much worse so here goes..

Bailey Smith
Hit the scoreboard last week with 2.1 and I like his odds to do it again. Named on the flank and should hopefully get his chances. kicked 2.0 the last time he played the pies, No weightman so someone will bob up.
2+ $7
3+ $23
4+ $81 all pointsbet

Beau McCreery​

kicked 1.4 last week and frustrated the hell out of a lot of people im sure. No gilligans Island this week so who stands up?
2+ $3.25
3+ $9
4+ $26 - PB

Will Hoskin-Elliott​

this goose kicked 2.0 last week and believe it or not has kicked 6 goals in a game before. Named in the forward pocket.
2+ $5
3+ $15 PB

Jack Crisp​

has hit the scoreboard the last 3 games, with - 1.0, 1.2, 1.0, Has only ever kicked 3 goals once before So im not going crazy with this one.
2+ $14
3+ $67

might add some more to this later
 
Geead said:
Might be a longshot, but Todd Marshall's the type of player to kick a bag against lesser opposition (e.g. WCE) and I found this vs North this wkd:

5+ TAB is $17 ($8.50 B365, $8.75 SB, $8.25 Lads)

6+ TAB is $51 ($20 B365, $21 Lads)
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5+ is now into 5.50 and I'm curious to see the cashout but they aren't offering it anymore? - has this happened to anyone on TAB? (I saw the cashout avb, when the odds were higher)
 
Geead said:
5+ is now into 5.50 and I'm curious to see the cashout but they aren't offering it anymore? - has this happened to anyone on TAB? (I saw the cashout avb, when the odds were higher)
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They turn it off when they think someone is abusing cash out for a particular market. They have the ability to turn cash out off for even just a selection
 

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