Preview 2022 AFL Season West Coast Eagles Preview, Fixtures and how the club can contend in 2022 despite injury woes. More from Dylan82 on the second page.

[RookiePick]

Going to be quality viewing watching us repeat all the same mistakes again this year.

Dylan82 is wasting his time I fear.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

Finally read Dylan82 's posts and man, you should just show up at West Coast HQ one day and just start working.

Maybe wear a Simmo face mask or something.

 

[Cuzz09]

Aaron Black

Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]

hey. Oh boi

 

[DanWCE]

3.4 - The Defence

The foundation behind the club’s past success is perhaps now its greatest problem. The deep-anchored zone setup for intercepts no longer serves its purpose and actively concedes territory to the opponent. The result is a circumstance that has been deteriorating over the years.

View attachment 1345102

The obvious answer is to become more proactive in defence, rather than waiting for the opponent. Finding a way to implement that with the limitations of the squad however, is another matter.

The lack of pace in the back half is both ominous and unsettling. Forget about pace coming out of defence to assist ball movement for a moment – I have grave concerns about the ability of this team to transition defensively when the opposition is presented with a counterattacking opportunity. Only Rotham could be judged as being genuinely quick – which is unfortunate because his ground-level one-on-one skills are terrible. With Sheppard retiring, the club no longer has a reliable shutdown option that can be deployed against opposing small forwards.

There is a reason why Petruccelle tears it up each preseason during the intraclub matches – the club doesn’t have much available to contain a player of his type.

I fear that regardless of the tactical approach, West Coast will not be able adequately restrain opponents from getting behind the defence and causing havoc on transition.

​

Million Dollar Baby​

​

No player sums up the current malaise in the West Coast Eagles as does Jeremy McGovern. In the space of a few years, he has gone from being viewed as arguably the most influential player in the competition to an unaccountable defensive liability. As teams adapted to curtail the intercept game, his productivity has dropped.​

​

Opponents have continued to sharpen their approach – going shorter with disposal and creating positional uncertainty by leading key forwards well up the ground whilst pushing rucks deep into attack.​

​

It has left McGovern with a defensive dilemma – stay with your direct opponent and get dragged out of the defensive equation, or zone off and attempt to cover the opposing ruck that is getting forward on Naitanui. Pretty standard fare for key defenders at AFL level now. It all begins to unravel however when the following occurs:​

• The ball moves into attack faster than he can respond
• Opposing players position themselves in the direct path between McGovern and opposition key marking targets, further reducing his ability to quickly impact marking contests
• Forwards lead into the space created 30-40 metres from goal when McGovern tracks the opposing ruckman to the goalsquare.

It leads to a vicious negative feedback loop, where McGovern loses his confidence and becomes increasingly hesitant to move early, which reduces his ability to impact contests, which in turn erode confidence further and so on it goes until the most expensive player in the squad is no longer able to be of any benefit to it.​

​

​

Here we see McGovern not having confidence in Duggan to provide assistance to Barrass against Larkey and Thomas. Instead of defending Goldstein’s lead, he ends up in no-man’s-land when Duggan comes across to mark Thomas.​

​

​

Obviously a major key to improving the fortunes of the team is restoring McGovern to his former position of dominance. The answer to that however, has eluded the club for the past three years.​

​

Look again at those three points of unravelling listed above – rapid ball movement, blocks, and getting baited by the opposition ruck decoy. All three are contingent upon team-mates delivering elsewhere to prevent the circumstance from occurring – be it midfielders covering the corridor; fellow defenders preventing their counterparts from laying blocks; or rucks staying accountable to their opponent. In recent times those team-mates have not been delivering on their part of the bargain, which has caused McGovern to develop a severe distrust of his colleagues.​

​

Rather than having confidence in his team-mates to fulfill their role, McGovern now plays in anticipation of their failure and tries to take it upon himself to do everything across the backline – an impossible and futile undertaking that ironically sees him being caught out of position more often.​

​

Getting McGovern to narrow his defensive focus and step back from trying to intervene all over the place will go a long way to regaining credibility in his efforts down back. The wider issues relating to those points of unravelling however, can only be truly addressed by a comprehensive change in system. That is not to say a strong team cannot be built around an intercepting defence anymore – on the contrary, the current reigning premiers have demonstrated just how effective one can be when paired with the right tactical approach.​

​

Attempting to address the defensive setup places West Coast in a catch-22 situation: sit deep and get cut to ribbons by the short possession game or push higher and risk getting exposed out the back.

In the end, and somewhat depressingly, it may just be a case that the club does not have the resources in the squad to prevent either outcome from occurring.



3.5 - Room for Improvement

Reserved

How insane am I for thinking that Willie could be a solution to that small lock down role?

 

[Avalor]

Brilliant analysis from Dylan82.

 

[Rowan18]

3.4 - The Defence

The foundation behind the club’s past success is perhaps now its greatest problem. The deep-anchored zone setup for intercepts no longer serves its purpose and actively concedes territory to the opponent. The result is a circumstance that has been deteriorating over the years.

View attachment 1345102

The obvious answer is to become more proactive in defence, rather than waiting for the opponent. Finding a way to implement that with the limitations of the squad however, is another matter.

The lack of pace in the back half is both ominous and unsettling. Forget about pace coming out of defence to assist ball movement for a moment – I have grave concerns about the ability of this team to transition defensively when the opposition is presented with a counterattacking opportunity. Only Rotham could be judged as being genuinely quick – which is unfortunate because his ground-level one-on-one skills are terrible. With Sheppard retiring, the club no longer has a reliable shutdown option that can be deployed against opposing small forwards.

There is a reason why Petruccelle tears it up each preseason during the intraclub matches – the club doesn’t have much available to contain a player of his type.

I fear that regardless of the tactical approach, West Coast will not be able adequately restrain opponents from getting behind the defence and causing havoc on transition.

​

Million Dollar Baby​

​

No player sums up the current malaise in the West Coast Eagles as does Jeremy McGovern. In the space of a few years, he has gone from being viewed as arguably the most influential player in the competition to an unaccountable defensive liability. As teams adapted to curtail the intercept game, his productivity has dropped.​

​

Opponents have continued to sharpen their approach – going shorter with disposal and creating positional uncertainty by leading key forwards well up the ground whilst pushing rucks deep into attack.​

​

It has left McGovern with a defensive dilemma – stay with your direct opponent and get dragged out of the defensive equation, or zone off and attempt to cover the opposing ruck that is getting forward on Naitanui. Pretty standard fare for key defenders at AFL level now. It all begins to unravel however when the following occurs:​

• The ball moves into attack faster than he can respond
• Opposing players position themselves in the direct path between McGovern and opposition key marking targets, further reducing his ability to quickly impact marking contests
• Forwards lead into the space created 30-40 metres from goal when McGovern tracks the opposing ruckman to the goalsquare.

It leads to a vicious negative feedback loop, where McGovern loses his confidence and becomes increasingly hesitant to move early, which reduces his ability to impact contests, which in turn erode confidence further and so on it goes until the most expensive player in the squad is no longer able to be of any benefit to it.​

​

​

Here we see McGovern not having confidence in Duggan to provide assistance to Barrass against Larkey and Thomas. Instead of defending Goldstein’s lead, he ends up in no-man’s-land when Duggan comes across to mark Thomas.​

​

​

Obviously a major key to improving the fortunes of the team is restoring McGovern to his former position of dominance. The answer to that however, has eluded the club for the past three years.​

​

Look again at those three points of unravelling listed above – rapid ball movement, blocks, and getting baited by the opposition ruck decoy. All three are contingent upon team-mates delivering elsewhere to prevent the circumstance from occurring – be it midfielders covering the corridor; fellow defenders preventing their counterparts from laying blocks; or rucks staying accountable to their opponent. In recent times those team-mates have not been delivering on their part of the bargain, which has caused McGovern to develop a severe distrust of his colleagues.​

​

Rather than having confidence in his team-mates to fulfill their role, McGovern now plays in anticipation of their failure and tries to take it upon himself to do everything across the backline – an impossible and futile undertaking that ironically sees him being caught out of position more often.​

​

Getting McGovern to narrow his defensive focus and step back from trying to intervene all over the place will go a long way to regaining credibility in his efforts down back. The wider issues relating to those points of unravelling however, can only be truly addressed by a comprehensive change in system. That is not to say a strong team cannot be built around an intercepting defence anymore – on the contrary, the current reigning premiers have demonstrated just how effective one can be when paired with the right tactical approach.​

​

Attempting to address the defensive setup places West Coast in a catch-22 situation: sit deep and get cut to ribbons by the short possession game or push higher and risk getting exposed out the back.

In the end, and somewhat depressingly, it may just be a case that the club does not have the resources in the squad to prevent either outcome from occurring.



3.5 - Room for Improvement

Reserved

That explains a lot about Gov. Bloke is trying to do everything and is failing. They really should take the Vic Captaincy off him so he can just focus on himself and getting back to form. Despite appearing laid back, I think he's the type to beat himself up if he's a leader and the team isn't performing.

 

[BeornJ]

Just read this stat. Surprised me very much!

I've clearly been under-estimating him

 

[Rowan18]

View attachment 1348966
Just read this stat. Surprised me very much!

I've clearly been under-estimating him

His defending was pretty good, it was his brain fades when dropping uncontested marks or shanking kicks that let him down. I think he will develop into a really solid defender. Tom Cole also used to be a bit of a headless chook at times.

 

[Rowan18]

Just read the approach to 2022 - great suggestions but we can see from today's team that Simmo won't be letting go of the land of the giants ☹

 

[Dylan82]

 

[Guest1]

Thanks for your time and analysis - very interesting drawing together the issues with the current team/game plan/(coaching staff?), and accompanying data, into one cohesive picture. It's very informative and hopefully this can be used to improve the team going forward.

 

[RookiePick]

What is strange is that our approach in 2014/2015 with our lines pressing up the ground and aggressive carry from half back (Sheppinghaaaaam! ) worked so well, is essentially what Dylan is advocating and got us to a grandfinal with a tremendous percentage.

It's like we lost the '15 grandfinal and what had been a highly effective plan for us got completely thrown out the door. Yes, we took the extra step in '18 with our midfield at the height of it's power but it's hard to say we were ever capable of dominance as we were in '15.

 

[Rowan18]

What is strange is that our approach in 2014/2015 with our lines pressing up the ground and aggressive carry from half back (Sheppinghaaaaam! ) worked so well, is essentially what Dylan is advocating and got us to a grandfinal with a tremendous percentage.

It's like we lost the '15 grandfinal and what had been a highly effective plan for us got completely thrown out the door. Yes, we took the extra step in '18 with our midfield at the height of it's power but it's hard to say we were ever capable of dominance as we were in '15.

View attachment 1351897

Part VI - The Season Ahead

I've seen the future and it's much like the present - only longer. - Dan Quisenberry ​

So what does 2022 ultimately have in store for West Coast?

We have seen that whilst the top level of potential output from the club shall continue to decline, there still remains the opportunity for significant improvement over 2021 if the right tactical approach can be applied in alignment with the areas of strength in the squad.

(That is of course, if the current injury crisis can come to an end).


Aside from personnel and tactics, the variability of the fixture plays a major role in the fortunes of clubs each year.

With that considered, what cards has the league administration dealt the club in the fixture for season 2022?


Here is the club’s fixture as it currently stands:

View attachment 1351899​

Not a terrible fixture. Of the five double-up matches, just one (Geelong) is against a top 8 team from last year.

Trips to Queensland (x2), Sydney and Geelong may as well be input as losses already however.

The Round 4 trip to Victoria against Collingwood just 6 days after the Derby is less than desirable as well.


When compared to the rest of the competition, the fixture for West Coast is the easiest of all clubs in terms of where opposing teams finished in 2021.

View attachment 1351900​

Travel of course, particularly for the two WA clubs, is a factor as well. The club may have fared well for opposition strength, but shall be travelling more than any other in 2022.

View attachment 1351901​

The AFL’s “dynamic” fixturing means we currently have no idea of day breaks between matches and their potential impacts after Round 9.
Nonetheless, here is chart of what I call ‘Fatigue Factor’ (calculated from day breaks and travel), with 7 day breaks input as default after Round 9.

View attachment 1351902​

The two Grand Finalists from last year have an easier road than what would be expected.​

With all of these factors considered, a tentative forecast for the coming season can be conducted.

Here is the output for last season, which proved to be surprisingly accurate in its prediction.

View attachment 1351903​

The initial run of this forecast for 2022, prior to the injury crisis, had West Coast finishing 9th again with an 11-11 record.
With long-term injuries now factored in, the club is forecast here to come in at 14th with an 8-14 record.

View attachment 1351904​

This was already going to be a daunting season for West Coast, fighting against the rigors of increasing age and searching for tactical relevance.

The added misfortune of having to overcome such a large list of injuries is likely makes it a step too far now to consider any return to September action this year.

Outside of something radical and unexpected occurring, 2022 for the West Coast Eagles will be just making up the numbers and watching the contenders from the wrong end of the table.

If we were forecast to finish 9th then the injuries are a blessing if it means we drop lower. 9th is the worst spot in the league if you're not an up and coming side, as it shows even your best is not good enough and you will continue to decline. The added sting is you've missed finals but still don't get to access the top echelon of the draft.

Either play finals or finish bottom 4.

 

[xInfected_Virus]

Feel the need to bump this thread up. I knew if things go bad that we’ll finish 2-20 but it turns out Norf are worse.

My overly optimistic part could only happen if the club’s key players are all fit and don’t miss out for the whole season coz at the time their injuries would only be a few weeks and get them back early in the season such as Allen, Cole and Chesser. Also it assumes that we don’t get screwed by COVID and the team’s fitness has improved plus our 30+ year old players are still in form like almost 2018 levels and the club embraces a smaller side, high pressing and two way running.

If we didn’t get screwed by COVID against Norf and Richmond made the most of their chances then Norf would’ve been winless and guarantee a PP.

I correctly predicted we’ll finish 2-20 then as things got bad, key players were injured, fitness was substandard, we got badly screwed by COVID plus not helped playing underdone players who clearly aren’t ready.

 

[Dylan82]

Unfortunately, this proved to be correct in the most unwanted way.

2.2 - Accountability

With the offensive capability teams now have at their disposal due to the recent rule changes, the days of being able to zone space through the middle are gone – if an opposing player is there somebody must go to them and mark up.

This is without question the biggest tactical issue that needs to be addressed by the club. Failure to do so will result in nothing less than a continuance of the trajectory taken in 2021 and a bottom 4 finish.

 

[Cuzz09]

Well prob better to crash and burn and get a decent pick(s) than fluff around 6-12

On SM-S908E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

My favourite predictions were 6-0 predictions