2022 Australia Cup Thread

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Andonis1997

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Jun 24, 2011
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That is excellent work! I love this stuff.

I'm still not sold of the quality of NSW and think they get a lot of points there through sheer weight of numbers (teams) in the 32. When there are so many NSW clubs gifted spots, they will inevitably match up against each other, so good odds a few NSW teams always progress regardless of their quality.

I'd try a system that counts results against Member clubs from another federation than their own. Add to that any win or draw against A-League clubs, as that definately counts for something, but a loss to them should be excluded (think of this as bonus points). Then divide by the number matches played. So it's not exactly how far you get in the comp, but the results you achieve against certain opposition.

E.g. I would count a win for a NSW club against a WA/VIC/NT/ACT/TAS/QLD/SA club, but a win against another NSW or NNSW wouldn't count (I lump all NSW together). I'm thinking more of a Federation vs Federation ladder. NPL results are probably a strong indicator of where the Federations lie, but COVID times have screwed some of the comps. Modbury have done very well from the third tier!

I'm happy for TAS/NT/ACT to have a gaurateed spot. I would take 1.5 spots from NSW/NNSW and 0.5 from WA, and add one spot each to SA and VIC, leaving a playoff between NSW/NNSW and WA.
Well, if we were to award 1 bonus point for beating A-League/other member fed teams, these are the tallies below for the past 5 seasons.
This is really rewarding for states that only have one team, again, Canberra Olympic's run in 2016 is carrying them.
Victoria is arguably the strongest, Queensland second, and then NSW. NNSW (I still kept them separate for the example) is being carried by only having two teams.
Screen Shot 2022-08-06 at 10.54.28 am.png


If we were to add yet another bonus point for beating an A-League team, that would look like this.
Screen Shot 2022-08-06 at 11.13.11 am.png

So NSW could keep their 6 teams, looking at these stats, but NNSW definitely shouldn't keep two. NSW should just be thankful for APIA Leichhardt.
My points system is flawed with this as a couple of the wins from state teams were penalty shootouts (e.g. Brisbane Strikers V Wellington...) so, I'd still give QLD another team.
Because coefficients only go from the past 5 seasons, SA cannot include Adelaide City's 2014 run to the quarterfinals (3 points), beating WSW and Brisbane Strikers (2 extra points), and 2015 where Metrostars beat Blacktown (one point, beat a non-SA team) and made the Round of 16 (2 points).

Interesting stuff.
 

Munga

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I tried my own system for ranking the Federations, based on all the matches from the round of 32 onwards in the FFA/AUS Cup from 2014 to 2022. No "recency bias", more of a snapshot of how each Fed shapes up each year. This only counts results in matches between different Feds, or if a win/draw was achieved against A-League opposition. Then we end up with points per match as a sign of Fed strength:

1659810873303.png


I added there how many spots each Fed should receive based on these results. There are a clear top 4. So if we want to take it a step further and remove results against the "easy beats" so to speak, we can see who is really performing against the top clubs.

1659811206157.png


Victoria hardly budged, meaning that they earn their wins against higher ranked opposition. Whereas the others gather more points from the easier opponents.
As Andonis1997 mentioned earlier, ACT is really hanging onto their 2016 performance, they have nothing outside that, so I rate Tassie higher as more consistent at snagging a result.

End of the day, Victoria ahead of the pack by a considerable margin. NSW criminally overrated. And SA highly underrated, they usually have the same 4-5 clubs performing well each season that could do the job in the Australia Cup. To think they only had one club in the Cup a few years ago!

I know this isn't really what the Cup is meant for and it's more about participation rates. But when the 2nd division has been around for a couple of years I wouldn't be surprised to see the number of clubs from each state mimicking the table above.

Would, or should, the introduction of a nsd competition change the format of the cup?

Could do. Probably depends how many clubs will be in the top two tiers. I'd always want to keep some spots for clubs outside that as well, like Modbury in this Cup.

My thinking would be that they increase the size of the A-League to semi safeguard the franchises from relegation in the short term. Maybe to 16 clubs, so 4 inclusions from NPL. 30 matches. Then have relegation of 2 or 3 spots, maybe a playoff for the third.

I think the first season of the NSD should be used to find the top 4 to be added to the A-League. Have 24 clubs in the NSD next season, then the top 4 move up. The following season the NSD will be 20 clubs.

A national third tier would be great but probably won't happen for a while one thinks. So movement between the NSD and 3rd tier is up for debate. There could be about 40 clubs all of about the same quality vying for the NSD, so I'd be looking at increasing the number of pro/rel spots for a few years until the quality finds its level.

Like the Aus Cup, I would have representatives from each Federation in the inaugural NSD. 6 spots to VIC clubs, 4 each NSW QLD SA, 2 WA, and 1 each TAS ACT NNSW NT. It's only fair to give each Fed a chance to find their level from day one. As I mentioned earlier, in the early seasons I would have about 6 spots for relegation from the NSD, the clubs will find their level quicker that way. And A-League Youth teams playing in the NSD cannot be allowed to happen.
 

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Munga

Norm Smith Medallist
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Good to see Sydney have brought their own ref.

Bentleigh and Modbury have been holding up well. A bit unlucky with deflections and blind refs.
 

Munga

Norm Smith Medallist
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Two more A-League clubs get through, but the Members can hold their heads high. Shame for Bentleigh, they were close enough to get a win.

Can someone tell Georgievski to stop saying "Nah definately"? It's worse than "yeah nah".
 

giggler99

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  • Thread starter
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FFA Cup Rounds of 16 Week One

FT Bentleigh Greens 1 V 2 Sydney FC
FT Modbury Jets 0 V 4 Macarthur FC
 

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